2023 NFL draft top quarterback projections: Rankings, stats
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThe 2023 NFL draft quarterback class is led by the highly touted Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis -- and it is considerably more exciting than the class of 2022.
Yet even before the draft, the NFL quarterback carousel has already been running at full speed. The New Orleans Saints signed Derek Carr, the former face of the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders then replaced Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo, whom the San Francisco 49ers replaced with Sam Darnold (while their other young signal-callers, Brock Purdy and Trey Lance, are attempting to return from injuries).
Subsequently, Darnold's old team, the Carolina Panthers, sent a haul of draft picks plus wide receiver DJ Moore to the Chicago Bears in exchange for the 2023 No. 1 pick. With the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts drafting second and fourth, respectively, there is a good chance that for the second time in three years, three quarterbacks will go in the top four picks.
Then there are the quarterbacks in limbo. The wait for the Green Bay Packers-New York Jets trade for Aaron Rodgers continues, while Lamar Jackson has requested a trade from the Baltimore Ravens. Ultimately, teams looking for a quarterback can either pay a premium for an established commodity, sign a journeyman veteran for a cheaper price (like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers replacing Tom Brady with Baker Mayfield), or spend draft capital on an unknown prospect. Therefore, a lot hinges on how teams evaluate this year's draft class.
With that in mind, we present the results of Football Outsiders' QBASE 2.0 model, which combines Andrew Healy's original QBASE model (2015) with Jeremy Rosen and Alex Olbrecht's functional mobility model (2018). It does so by factoring in a quarterback's rushing ability while also using his adjusted college passing statistics and adjusted years started. The adjustments consider the quality of both the quarterback's teammates and opponents, and while they reward quarterbacks who have steadily improved over time, they penalize one-year wonders.
The quarterbacks below are listed in order of their Scouts Inc. ranking, and interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward. A value of 0 total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A) is replacement-level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. We run 50,000 simulations to provide a distribution that each quarterback falls within a particular range. Here are our 2023 projections:
Bryce Young, Alabama
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 1Mean projection: 0.33 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A): 38.3%
Adequate starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A): 27.1%
Upper tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A): 20.5%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A): 14.1%
With his accuracy, playmaking ability and 2021 Heisman Trophy, Young has QBASE 2.0's highest projection of 2023. Comparing Young to Alabama's previous quarterback, Mac Jones, QBASE 2.0 is more excited about Young because of his greater mobility. (QBASE was not very high on Jones despite his record-setting completion percentage.)
The biggest area of concern for Young is his 5-foot-10 stature, though QBASE 2.0 does not penalize shorter quarterbacks because of the successes of Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. It is also important to note that while Young's supporting cast was strong relative to most quarterbacks in this year's class, it was not nearly as strong as that of Stroud, nor Young's Alabama predecessors Jones and Tua Tagovailoa.
C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 3Mean projection: 0.13 TDYAR/A
Bust: 45.4%
Adequate starter: 26.0%
Upper tier: 18.0%
Elite: 10.7%
Just like Young, QBASE 2.0 projects that there is a greater than 50% chance that Stroud will be an adequate starter or better in the NFL. However, Stroud's projection is lower than Young's for three reasons.
First and foremost, Stroud was surrounded by a lot of talent at Ohio State. Scouts Inc. projects his left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. as a top-10 pick this year, and two of his receivers (Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka) may be top-10 picks next year.
Second, although he enjoyed a higher completion percentage last season than Young, he had fewer rushing yards per attempt.
And third, Scouts Inc. projects that Stroud will be drafted after Young. Stroud is listed third by Scouts Inc. but will probably be selected in the first two picks; his projection improves to 0.20 TDYAR/A if he is selected first overall. That said, if his accuracy does not suffer from the NFL's tighter passing windows, and his claim that he is more mobile than he showed in college proves true, then he could end up having a better career than Young.
Anthony Richardson, Florida
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 10Mean projection: minus-0.95 TDYAR/A
Bust: 80.5%
Adequate starter: 13.1%
Upper tier: 4.9%
Elite: 1.5%
If Young and Stroud go first and second overall (or vice versa), they will be compared forever like other pairs of quarterbacks who have gone atop the draft, from Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf to Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. But the next two quarterbacks in this year's class will also be compared to each other going forward, especially because of their notable similarity as prospects to Bills QB Josh Allen. Heading into the 2018 draft, many statistical models, including the original QBASE, did not like Allen because of his subpar college production. But Allen's arm strength, mobility and high ceiling made him into a star in the NFL.
Richardson resembles that archetype, too, except he may be a more extreme version. He completed just 53.8% of his passes in his one year as a college starter and threw 17 touchdowns to 9 interceptions, numbers that would ordinarily not get a prospect drafted in the first round. Yet his arm strength is elite, and he rushed for a Cam Newton-esque 6.3 yards per attempt (though Newton had much better passing numbers in his one year starting for Auburn).
Given Richardson's college statistics and non-top-five overall Scouts Inc. grade, QBASE 2.0's projection for him is low. But if he is drafted fourth overall, it will improve to minus-0.75. And regardless, there will be teams that think they can develop him into a franchise quarterback.
Will Levis, Kentucky
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 15Mean projection: minus-0.52 TDYAR/A
Bust: 68.3%
Adequate starter: 19.5%
Upper tier: 9.1%
Elite: 3.2%
Levis may not be as polarizing a prospect, but like Richardson, he also has excellent physical traits. And he has similarities to Allen, as well. Specifically, they are both big mobile quarterbacks with big arms from schools that did not surround them with much, if any, NFL-level talent. They also both struggled with accuracy in college, which is a major reason why QBASE 2.0 likes Levis less than Young and Stroud.
The other issue with Levis, which is unique to him, is that he was a much less effective runner in 2022 than 2021. This was in part because of a foot injury, but if Levis is to succeed in the NFL, he will need to regain his old rushing form. If Levis goes fourth overall, his projection will improve to minus-0.17 TDYAR/A.
Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 33Mean projection: minus-0.22 TDYAR/A
Bust: 58.0%
Adequate starter: 23.3%
Upper tier: 12.9%
Elite: 5.8%
In many ways the opposite of Richardson, Hooker has done almost everything QBASE 2.0 would want to see from a quarterback. In four seasons as a college starter (two for Virginia Tech and two for Tennessee), he has repeatedly completed 65% to 70% of his passes and rushed for about four yards per attempt. And despite not having as much surrounding talent last year as Stroud or even Young, he won nine out of his 11 starts playing in the SEC and led Tennessee to the Orange Bowl.
However, he is already 25 years old, and his season ended with a torn ACL, as backup Joe Milton started in Tennessee's Orange Bowl victory. While QBASE 2.0 does not factor in the ACL tear, this year's model assigns a small, gradually increasing penalty to quarterbacks older than 24 to account for the lower success rate of older prospects since 2005. Despite the penalty, the main reason Hooker's projection is not higher is his non-Round 1 grade from Scouts Inc.
Jake Haener, Fresno State
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 86Mean projection: minus-0.95 TDYAR/A
Bust: 80.6%
Adequate starter: 13.1%
Upper tier: 5.0%
Elite: 1.3%
Haener is a three-year college starter who completed 72.0% of his passes in 2022, which is higher than any other quarterback on this list. However, he lacks mobility, rushing for minus-2.7 yards per attempt in 2022 (in college, sacks count as negative rushing yards), which would be the eighth-worst out of any quarterback drafted in the top 100 picks since 2005. And none of the other seven became NFL starters; the most successful of them is Chad Henne.
Ultimately, and in large part because of Haener's limited physical traits, QBASE 2.0 agrees with Scouts Inc. that he is likely to be a backup-caliber quarterback at the NFL level.
