NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 13
Friday/Saturday’s top 13 games
Texas-San Antonio @ Tulane
Texas-San Antonio (8-3, 7-0)
— UTSA won its last seven games, after a 1-3 start.
— Roadrunners scored 34+ points in last seven games (19.3 ppg/first four)
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 42 games.
— under Traylor, UTSA is 5-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— under Traylor, UTSA is 20-12-1 ATS in conference games.
— UTSA is 17-13-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
— UTSA is +1 in turnovers (+22 from 2020-22)
— under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Roadrunners went 0-3 in bowls the last three years.
Tulane (10-1, 7-0)
— Tulane won its last nine games since 37-20 loss to Ole Miss.
— Three of their last four wins were by 3 or fewer points.
— Green Wave is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 130 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 33 starts
— Tulane is 17-7 ATS last 24 games as a home favorite (1-3 ATS).
— In his career, Fritz is 28-17 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Fritz, Green Wave is 37-28-1 ATS in league games.
— Nine of last ten Tulane games stayed under the total.
— Tulane is 3-1 SU/ATS in its last four bowls.
— These teams haven’t met since 2013.
— AAC home favorites are 10-16 ATS.
Missouri @ Arkansas
Missouri (9-2, 5-2)
— Mizzou is 7-2 vs I-A teams, despite giving up 24.3 ppg.
— Mizzou gave up 49-30 points in losses to LSU/Georgia.
— Mizzou is 8-0 when it gives up less than 30 points.
— Tigers scored 30+ points in eight of their last nine games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 136 starts back on offensive line; very experienced
— junior QB has started 14 games.
— In his career, Drinkwitz is 5-3 ATS as road favorite.
— Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 18-15 ATS in SEC games.
— three of last four Mizzou games stayed under the total.
— Mizzou lost its last four bowls; their last bowl win— 2015.
Arkansas (4-7, 1-6)
— Hogs lost 7 of last 9 games (five losses by 7 or less points).
— H0gs are 0-5 when they score less than 28 points.
— Arkansas is 1-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 78 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has 24 starts
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 19-12-2 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 6-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Hogs are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
— last three Arkansas games went over the total.
— Razorbacks won three of their last four bowls, scoring 37 ppg.
— Missouri won eight of last ten series games.
— Tigers are 2-2 SU/0-4 ATS in last four visits to Arkansas.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten meetings.
— SEC home underdogs are 6-19 ATS.
Oregon State @ Oregon
Oregon State (8-3, 5-3)
— 7 of Oregon State’s 8 wins TY are by 12+ points.
— Beavers are 0-3 in games decided by less than 7 points.
— under Smith, Beavers are 13-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— OSU is 13-7 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
— OSU is 19-7 ATS in last 26 Pac-12 games.
— Beavers are 6-0 when they allow less than 22 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 28 games at Clemson.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Beavers are 2-3 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five).
Oregon (10-1, 7-1)
— Oregon has scored 33+ points in every game this season.
— Eight of their ten wins were by 14+ points.
— Ducks’ only loss was 36-33 at Washington.
— Last three games, Oregon threw ball for 439.7 yards/game.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 96 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB Nix QB has 47 career starts, 34 of them at Auburn.
— Last 5+ years, Ducks are 55-17 SU.
— under Lanning, Ducks are 7-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Lanning, Oregon is 11-5-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— under Lanning, Oregon is 13-4 ATS coming off a win.
— Over is 4-2 in Oregon’s last six games.
— Ducks are 3-2 in last five bowl games; all three wins were by one point.
— Ducks won 12 of last 15 games in this rivalry.
— Beavers are 5-3 ATS in last eight visits to Eugene.
— Five of last six meetings went over the total.
— Pac-12 home underdogs are 12-6 ATS.
Ohio State @ Michigan
Ohio State (11-0, 7-0)
— Last six games, Ohio State allowed 8.5 ppg.
— Buckeyes are 5-0 on road TY, scoring 28 ppg.
— since 2018, Buckeyes are 3-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Buckeyes have only 2 wins (Notre Dame/Penn St) by less than 14 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; had 3 starters drafted last spring.
— junior QB McCord has completed 66.4% of his passes, with 22 TD’s, 4 INT’s.
— Buckeyes are 29-19-2 ATS in last 50 games coming off a win.
— Ohio State is 24-16-1 ATS in last 41 conference games.
— Under is 7-1 in Ohio State’s last eight games.
— Ohio State split last six bowls, giving up 52-45-42 points in last three.
Michigan (11-0, 8-0)
— Wolverines are 8-0 SU/5-2-1 ATS in Big 14 games.
— all six of their home wins are by 24+ points.
— Michigan is 4-8-2 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Last two games, Michigan gained 287-291 TY.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 145 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB McCarthy has 13 career starts (22 TD passes, 5 INT LY).
— Last 2+ years, Michigan is 17-8-2 ATS in conference games.
— Michigan is 19-13-3 ATS in last 33 games coming off a win.
— six of last seven Michigan games went over the total.
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls, giving up 40.3 ppg in last four
— Michigan won last two series games, 45-23/42-27
— Buckeyes are 7-3 SU/5-5 ATS in last ten visits to Ann Arbor.
— Last nine meetings went over the total.
— Big 14 home favorites are 15-16 ATS.
Kentucky @ Louisville
Kentucky (6-5)
— Kentucky lost five of last six games, after a 5-0 start.
— Wildcats gave up 51-38-33-49-17 points in losses (28 or less in wins)
— Kentucky is 1-5 scoring less than 28 points.
— Kentucky was held under 300 TY in five of last six games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line (four starters back)
— senior QB started 26 games at NC State.
— under Stoops, Wildcats are 19-19-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— in his career, Stoops is 40-48 ATS in SEC games.
— Kentucky is 10-15-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss.
— Six of last eight Kentucky games went over the total.
— Wildcats won four of their last five bowls (lost 21-0 LY).
— SEC road underdogs are 1-4 ATS out of conference.
Louisville (10-1)
— Louisville has ACC title game next week.
— Cardinals won last four games, last two 31-24/38-31.
— Louisville has five wins by 7 or fewer points.
— Louisville’s only loss (38-21 (-7.5) at Pitt)
— Cardinals are 16-8 ATS last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Louisville is 14-17 ATS in its last 31 games coming off a win.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 12 games at Cal last year.
— In his career, Brohm is 33-28 ATS at home.
— under is 4-2 in their home games.
— Cardinals went bowling five of last seven years (2-3).
— ACC home favorites are 9-5 ATS out of conference.
— Kentucky won last four series games, scoring 44 ppg.
— Wildcats covered their last four visits to Louisville.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Texas A&M @ LSU
Texas A&M (7-4, 4-3)
— A&M won three of last four games, after a 4-3 start.
— Despite that, A&M fired its coach last week.
— A&M is 0-3 TY in games decided by 12 or less points.
— Aggies are 7-2 when scoring 27+ points (0-2 score less than 27).
— Aggies are 7-1 giving up 22 or less points (0-3 giving up 26+).
— A&M is 0-3 in true road games, losing by 15-7-3 points.
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— 3rd-string soph QB is 27-42/410 passing (4 TD’s, no INTs)
— since 2020, Aggies are 1-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— A&M is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 SEC games.
— over is 3-1 in their games away from home TY.
— A&M won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.
LSU (8-3, 5-2)
— LSU won five of last six games, scoring 48+ points in wins.
— Tigers allowed 45-55-42 points in losses.
— LSU gained 500+ yards in nine of last ten games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 43 starts, 29 of them at Arizona State.
— under Kelly, LSU is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 50-43-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2017, LSU is 36-22-1 ATS in SEC games.
— LSU is 24-16 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
— Over is 10-1 in LSU games this season.
— LSU is 4-1 SU/ATS in bowls the last five years.
— Home team won last six series games.
— Aggies are 0-5 SU/ATS in last five visits to Baton Rouge.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— SEC home favorites are 18-12 ATS.
San Jose State @ UNLV
San Jose State (6-5, 5-2)
— Spartans won their last five games, after a 1-5 start.
— San Jose allowed 35+ points in four of five losses.
— Spartans are bowl eligible for third time in four years.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i.
— under Brennan, Spartans are 16-12 ATS as a road underdog.
— under Brennan, San Jose is 31-22-1 ATS in conference tilts.
— Last three games, San Jose gave up 0-18-13 points.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— San Jose made bowls two of last three years, but lost both.
UNLV (9-2, 6-1)
— UNLV goes to Mountain West title game if they win here.
— Rebels won eight of last nine games, scoring 38.2 ppg.
— Rebels’ losses: 7-35 (+37) at Michigan/24-31 (+10) @ Fresno.
— UNLV has gained 397+ yards in every game but Michigan game.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line, but there isn’t much depth.
— frosh QB has completed 64% of passes (13 TD’s, 6 INT)
— In his career, coach Odom is 16-10 ATS as home favorites (2-1 TY).
— since 2020, Rebels are 4-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— UNLV is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 Mountain West games.
— Six of their last nine games went over the total.
— Rebels haven’t been to a bowl game since 2013.
— UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.
— San Jose won nine of last eleven series games.
— Spartans are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Las Vegas.
— Over is 3-1 in last four meetings played here.
— Mountain West home favorites are 12-14 ATS
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina
James Madison (10-1, 6-1)
— JMU lost its first game LW, 26-23 at home to App State.
— Last four games, Dukes threw ball for 355.5 yards/game.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line- lot of experience.
— junior QB has completed 68.4% of his passes, thrown 27 TD’s, 8 INT’s.
— JMU is 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
— Dukes are 4-1 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— JMU is 5-3 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— James Madison’s appeal to go to a bowl was turned down this week.
Coastal Carolina (7-4, 5-2)
— Coastal won five of its last six games.
— Chanticleers are 0-4 giving up 27+ points, 7-0 giving up less than 27.
— Coastal is 3-1 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— since 2020, Chanticleers are 6-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 39 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 34 career starts.
— Coastal is 17-15 ATS in its last 32 Sun Belt games.
— under is 8-2 in their I-A games this season.
— LW, CC lost 28-21 at Army; Cadets ran for 365 yards, were 0-2 passing.
— Coastal has played in bowls the last three years, their first three bowls.
— JMU (-14.5) whacked Coastal Carolina 47-7 LY.
— Dukes outgained Coastal, 502-185, were +2 in turnovers.
— It was teams’ first meeting as I-A programs.
— Sun Belt home underdogs are 10-7 ATS.
Alabama @ Auburn
Alabama (10-1, 7-0)
— Alabama won its last nine games (6-2 ATS).
— Crimson Tide’s only loss was 34-24 at home to Texas.
— Longhorns threw for 349 yards in that game.
— Alabama gave up 20+ points in its last five I-A games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— Alabama is 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite (2-2 TY)
— Alabama is 25-17-1 ATS in last 43 games coming off a win.
— Crimson Tide is +4 in turnovers since start of LY (+76 from 2015-21)
— Alabama is 6-1 ATS in SEC games this season.
— five of their last six games went over.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
Auburn (6-5, 3-4)
— Auburn lost 31-10 at home to New Mexico State LW, a bad loss.
— Before that, Tigers had won three in row, giving up 13-15-10 points.
— Auburn allowed 15 or less points in wins, 27+ in losses.
— Last 3+ years, Auburn is 23-24 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 25 games at Michigan State.
— In his career, Freeze is 10-5 ATS as a home dog (1-1 TY).
— Auburn is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
— Tigers are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
— under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Auburn is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— Freeze is Auburn’s third coach in 4 years.
— Alabama won seven of last nine Iron Bowls.
— Crimson Tide is 2-7 ATS in last nine visits to Auburn.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.
— SEC home underdogs are 6-14 ATS.
Florida State @ Florida
Florida State (11-0)
— FSU QB Travis is out for the year.
— Florida State has ACC title game next week.
— Five of Seminoles’ last six I-A wins were by 17+ points.
— Last three games, FSU is +5 in turnovers.
— Seminoles have three wins by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; ton of experience.
— soph backup QB was 13-23/217 passing LW, vs a I-AA team.
— This will be his first college start.
— Seminoles are 10-8-1 ATS last 19 games as a road favorite.
— in his career, Norvell is 15-8 ATS as a road favorite
— under Norvell, FSU is 16-16 ATS in the ACC.
— Over is 6-4 in their games this season.
— ACC road favorites are 3-3 ATS out of conference.
— Seminoles went bowling LY for first time since 2019
— FSU has played in one bowl since 2019 (3-1 last four SU)
Florida (5-6)
— Florida QB Mertz is out for this game.
— Florida lost its last four games, giving up 41.8 ppg.
— Gators scored 34 ppg in last three games, lost all three.
— Florida gave up 465+ TY in its last five games.
— Gators are minus-4 in turnovers this season.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 74 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 32 games at Wisconsin
— under Napier, Florida is 7-4 ATS as an underdog.
— in his career, Napier is 18-7-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Gators are 12-9-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
— Florida’s last seven games went over the total.
— SEC underdogs are 2-4 ATS out of conference.
— Gators lost last three bowls, by a combined 114-40.
— Florida won three of last four meetings.
— Seminoles are 4-1-1 ATS in last six visits to Gainesville.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Kansas @ Cincinnati
Kansas (7-4, 4-4)
— Jayhawks lost their last two games, by 3-4 points.
— Their last five games were all decided by 7 or less points.
— Kansas gave up 40-39-16-31 points in its three losses.
— Jayhawks are 7-1 when they give up 30 or less points.
— Jayhawks gained 400+ total yards in five of eight I-A games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back /
— junior QB has started 13 games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Those are only times in last 11 years Kansas was a road favorite.
— in his career, Leipold is 7-9 ATS as a road favorite.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 12-13-1 ATS in Big X games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 8-10 ATS coming off a loss.
— last three Kansas games stayed under the total.
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— Jayhawks won three of their last four bowl games.
Cincinnati (3-8, 1-7)
— Bearcats lost eight of their last nine games.
— Bearcats gave up 424 YR in LW’s 42-21 loss at West Virginia.
— Cincinnati is 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS at home vs I-A opponents.
— Cincinnati’s only I-A wins: 27-21 @ Pitt, 24-14 @ Houston.
— Cincy ran ball for 204+ yards in 7 of 10 I-A games.
— 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 20 starts back on offensive line; not much experience.
— senior QB Jones started 7 games at Arizona State LY.
— since 2017, Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— New coach Satterfield is 5-7-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— over is 6-4 in their I-A games this year.
— Cincinnati lost its last three bowls SU; favorites covered 4 of last 5 bowls.
— These teams haven’t met since 1997.
— Big X home underdogs are 15-7 ATS.
North Carolina @ NC State
North Carolina (8-3, 4-3)
— UNC lost three of last five games, after a 6-0 start.
— UNC gave up 436+ TY in four of last five I-A games.
— Carolina gave up 31+ points in its last five I-A games.
— Tar Heels are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Last eight games, UNC is +11 in turnovers.
— in 4+ years under Brown, UNC is 19-23 ATS in ACC games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has 14 starts; he threw 38 TD’s last year.
— over is 3-2-1 in their last six games
— Carolina went bowling last four years, lost last three.
NC State (8-3, 5-2)
— NC State won its last four games, giving up 14.3 ppg.
— Last four games, Wolfpack is +6 in turnovers.
— NC State was held to 24-10-3 points in its losses.
— State is 4-1 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— QB Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia.
— under Doeren, State is 11-11-1 ATS as a home underdog (3-1 TY).
— Last four years, Wolfpack is 19-14 ATS in ACC games.
— six of their last eight games stayed under total.
— NC State lost last three bowls; their last bowl win: 2017.
— State won five of last seven series games.
— Tar Heels are covered their last five visits to Raleigh.
— Four of last five meetings went over the total.
— ACC home underdogs are 14-7 ATS.
Iowa State @ Kansas State
Iowa State (6-5, 5-3)
— Cyclones won last three road games, scoring 30-30-45 points.
— ISU is 6-0 when it scores 27+ points, 0-5 when it doesn’t.
— Cyclones are 6-5, have a +9 turnover ratio.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers withdrew from school (gambling charges)
— freshman QB is completing 63.4% of passes (17 TD’s/8 INTs).
— under Campbell, ISU is 12-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— This year, Iowa State is 5-3 ATS in conference games.
— under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— ISU is 12-6-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
Kansas State (8-3, 6-2)
— K-State won five of last six games (lost 33-30 at Texas).
— Last six games, K-State has a +12 turnover ratio.
— Wildcats are 7-0 when they allow less the 29 points.
— Wildcats are 5-0 SU at home, scoring 45.4 ppg.
— K-State is 8-0 scoring 31+ points (27-21-30 in losses)
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; all five starters are back
— junior QB started 15 games last two years.
— under Klieman, K-State is 15-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Klieman, K-State is 19-10 ATS as a favorite.
— under Klieman, K-State is 30-15 ATS in Big X games.
— under Klieman, K-State is 22-14 ATS coming off a win.
— over is 6-4 in their I-A games
— Wildcats went to a bowl games three of last four years.
— Iowa State won three of last five meetings.
— Cyclones covered three of last four visits to the Little Apple.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
— Big X home favorites are 18-15 ATS.
