2023 Draft Hidden Gems

[sds23]

How effective is stacking? Example you have good GB exposure and youth?

What is Will Anderson? DL or LB?

Next year a few studs....
Harrison WR
Powers TE
Drake QB
Sanders RB

Kid Ohio st DE forget the name
Williams QB (just not sold on)
Eichenberg LB Ohio st
Trice ED Washington


Clemson has a few good D guys! Trotted LB a solid guy.

Next year will be
QB heavy
CB/S heavy
OL heavy

Weak WR RB TE the skill positions.

Being around pick 12 and 24 seems like TE is the play this year. I’d probably want Kincaid with Allen if not hope Musgrave rd 2 which is possible I’d imagine. If you think team stacking is valuable and beneficial.

Mecole Hardmen I’d dump but I guess returns yards brings value. Achenae RB Miami I’d be al over if I knew he would return also with that speed.

Nobody is taking AT Perry so maybe my last pick stash guy for a flyer. I’d consider.

Two RD 1 next year I’d be looking Harrison and Powers get one both if lucky. (Houston Texans should have traded 2 and went all defensive early this year. Taken 3rd 1 picks into next year and target Drake and Harrison and Powers) sell the entire draft for those 3 guys.

If i felt I could get a Kincaid with Miller or Johnson rd 2 I’d go that route

If not I’ll be honest and maybe gamble on defense first two picks. Team you have look pretty young and Deep tbh. DL QB looks good. WR decent shape especially if Love production is good. Only bad part is LBs can be found easy for production. And same with secondary. Average dudes bad teams can rack up points. Out average LB on teams with good DL he will mop up tackles.

So I’m weighing the benefits scoring wise of say a DT with big tackle and decent sack upside like Carter. Or Van Ness long game value

Just talking out loud. You have better understanding value or angles to play

Hmmm … good to know that the skill positions are looking a bit weak for next year. Thanks! (Figured you’d know.)

Stacking definitely has it merits … especially if it’s an obvious high point producer (Rodgers / Adams being a very high profile past example). But yeah, if a QB only has eyes for a certain dude inside the redzone, a stack job is in order. The downside (of lesser quality stacks) is the roller coaster of feast-or-famine peaks and valleys.

Interesting comment on M. Hardman …. I’ve been wondering what to do with him for a couple of years now. He showed flashes in KC but then he’d get hurt and fall off the radar again.

I have one too many WRs and need to probably drop one. I was close to cutting Hardman a few times but didn’t. You think it’s time to let him go? I was hoping with a new team, it might finally be his time. (Okay, “wishing” more than hoping I guess!)

But that brings me to another point: My Taxi Squad.

I need to clear it out in order to stash any draft picks that don’t make my initial season roster. Love, White, Ruckert are there now.

I’ll cut bait with TE J. Ruckert. That decision was made halfway through last season. Done.

Love obviously needs to come onto my active roster (he’s no longer eligible for Taxi and he may have nice value).

White (J. Jacobs handcuff) I might want to keep on my Taxi Squad for now? Not sure. Volatile situation with rumors of the staff not liking Jacobs, trade rumors, potential shared carries, etc. But how good is White? Is he even guaranteed to be the guy if Jacobs does go somewhere?

QB: I don’t see a lot of value in having 3 QBs, if you have a top 5 starter like Allen. I used Goff twice all season (and at the best times, luckily coinciding with Allen’s bye week and a week he was injured).

I like Goff as a backup. Always thought he was underrated and see signs of good things to come every once in awhile in DET. But now I fear that they are looking to develop a package for the QB they drafted. Or at least that’s the rumor I heard. Plus all the WRs they lost to that gambling deal.

Love “could” be a replacement for Goff as my backup …. but that’s only in theory until reality either confirms or denies it.

Contemplating if I should prematurely shop one or both of them, or keep 3 QBs and wait and see how things play out this season. Moving Love onto my roster means I have to drop someone to make room. And I’ve been saying that I have one too many WRs, and then you said the “out loud” part about what I had been thinking a few times about Hardman.

Loving your TE recommendations. People could surprise me this year and buck tradition, but TE’s are usually available.

 

[chrishansen]

LOL - You already have an excellent grasp at the big picture (“Defense it seems LB/S/DE are the points positions” and “With the flex option it almost seems like starting LB S is the way to go.”) Both of those echo my exact same conclusions about what to do and how to approach it. Granted, we both could be wrong, but I highly doubt it.

In regard to, “I wouldn’t really know how to draft secondary or even worth it“ …. a couple of thoughts. Initially I felt the same way. It seemed like a fruitless endeavor. So I avoided drafting them and watched and waited to find good tackling S’s via the waiver wire. The only one I ever drafted was Delpit, but that was an easy pick IMO.

I think it’s mainly about looking for the S that has run responsibility (avoiding the baseball-like center fielders) or the occasional CB that actually plays in a system that makes them responsible for edge run gaps and weak side blitzes (Tampa 2, man to man, etc. if I’m thinking clearly).

LB: Love the Campbell recommendation!!

Hmmm … good to know that the skill positions are looking a bit weak for next year. Thanks! (Figured you’d know.)

Stacking definitely has it merits … especially if it’s an obvious high point producer (Rodgers / Adams being a very high profile past example). But yeah, if a QB only has eyes for a certain dude inside the redzone, a stack job is in order. The downside (of lesser quality stacks) is the roller coaster of feast-or-famine peaks and valleys.

Interesting comment on M. Hardman …. I’ve been wondering what to do with him for a couple of years now. He showed flashes in KC but then he’d get hurt and fall off the radar again.

I have one too many WRs and need to probably drop one. I was close to cutting Hardman a few times but didn’t. You think it’s time to let him go? I was hoping with a new team, it might finally be his time. (Okay, “wishing” more than hoping I guess!)

But that brings me to another point: My Taxi Squad.

I need to clear it out in order to stash any draft picks that don’t make my initial season roster. Love, White, Ruckert are there now.

I’ll cut bait with TE J. Ruckert. That decision was made halfway through last season. Done.

Love obviously needs to come onto my active roster (he’s no longer eligible for Taxi and he may have nice value).

White (J. Jacobs handcuff) I might want to keep on my Taxi Squad for now? Not sure. Volatile situation with rumors of the staff not liking Jacobs, trade rumors, potential shared carries, etc. But how good is White? Is he even guaranteed to be the guy if Jacobs does go somewhere?

QB: I don’t see a lot of value in having 3 QBs, if you have a top 5 starter like Allen. I used Goff twice all season (and at the best times, luckily coinciding with Allen’s bye week and a week he was injured).

I like Goff as a backup. Always thought he was underrated and see signs of good things to come every once in awhile in DET. But now I fear that they are looking to develop a package for the QB they drafted. Or at least that’s the rumor I heard. Plus all the WRs they lost to that gambling deal.

Love “could” be a replacement for Goff as my backup …. but that’s only in theory until reality either confirms or denies it.

Contemplating if I should prematurely shop one or both of them, or keep 3 QBs and wait and see how things play out this season. Moving Love onto my roster means I have to drop someone to make room. And I’ve been saying that I have one too many WRs, and then you said the “out loud” part about what I had been thinking a few times about Hardman.

Loving your TE recommendations. People could surprise me this year and buck tradition, but TE’s are usually available.

I’d cut Hardmon. And Ruckert. I’d trade Goff (If) you have confidence in love to be just okay. Allen is a stud so outside injury 3QBs aren’t a must

Jacobs I’d dangle fir Trade bait also if I could get younger. His ceiling is as high as ever. Plus wants money offva huge huge workload. Price would have to be right.

Goff I wouldn’t move if Detroit real world stuff. But he will get paid. Still plenty young as a QB also. But ya got Allen. I’d move cut Love if I didn’t have two young guys Watson and Doubs with Musgrave an option to draft to pair. Idk I see value in Love.

I’d probably be looking to stack RB depth and DL. I’d much rather have too many mouths than not enough. If bench guys blow up then Trade value goes up. Better my bench producing than another team. DL seems like a spot to corner market. Big producers there don’t seem easy to find fantasy wise.

Good thing is ya have lots of options to go. Bad thing is ya got too many options to go lol.

If I could say Trade Goff for RB of quality and upside. And say a Sam Howell is a FA. I’d grab Howell hope he looks good which I think he may. Grab more trade equity. Not sure how deep or valued QBs are in the league. I’d imagine everyone has 3.

So RB depth over Quality since RBs injuries are high.

Nice stack building if available

DL depth due to upside advantages in points scoring vs other positions which waiver wire I imagine has production equal to other positions. 135 points DL ain’t on FA wire. 100 point WR probably is and if losing 140 WR production can be recouped at 100 point production easier than DL gap. I’d build off that strategy

Just my opinions off top of head and two days learning your league

 

[sds23]

I’d cut Hardmon. And Ruckert. I’d trade Goff (If) you have confidence in love to be just okay. Allen is a stud so outside injury 3QBs aren’t a must

Jacobs I’d dangle fir Trade bait also if I could get younger. His ceiling is as high as ever. Plus wants money offva huge huge workload. Price would have to be right.

Goff I wouldn’t move if Detroit real world stuff. But he will get paid. Still plenty young as a QB also. But ya got Allen. I’d move cut Love if I didn’t have two young guys Watson and Doubs with Musgrave an option to draft to pair. Idk I see value in Love.

I’d probably be looking to stack RB depth and DL. I’d much rather have too many mouths than not enough. If bench guys blow up then Trade value goes up. Better my bench producing than another team. DL seems like a spot to corner market. Big producers there don’t seem easy to find fantasy wise.

Good thing is ya have lots of options to go. Bad thing is ya got too many options to go lol.

If I could say Trade Goff for RB of quality and upside. And say a Sam Howell is a FA. I’d grab Howell hope he looks good which I think he may. Grab more trade equity. Not sure how deep or valued QBs are in the league. I’d imagine everyone has 3.

So RB depth over Quality since RBs injuries are high.

Nice stack building if available

DL depth due to upside advantages in points scoring vs other positions which waiver wire I imagine has production equal to other positions. 135 points DL ain’t on FA wire. 100 point WR probably is and if losing 140 WR production can be recouped at 100 point production easier than DL gap. I’d build off that strategy

Just my opinions off top of head and two days learning your league

Most teams have just two QBs (guessing there might be only a couple with 3 QBs). So with 14 teams (figure 28 QBs, 30 if there’s two teams with 3) that means there’s usually a starter or two on the waiver wire. Yeah, a great QB is always in demand, but there’s little value between the 14th best QB or the 28th best QB in our league. Goff won’t be anyone’s starter (unless he really starts putting up njumbers on a consistent basis) and probably won’t bring a ton of trade value as someone’s backup.

But you never know. I can certainly take a peak at everyone’s rosters and find out for sure. Even if I’m right, he might be able to net be a better spot in next years draft or something.

Love would have trade value now (we have some GB Packer fan “homers” in the league) for anyone who is extremely optimistic. But I really like the “stack” opportunities you mentioned (Watson, Doubs and perhaps Musgrave if I can snag him). His trade value might be the highest now (before reality hits), but I’m just as anxious to see what happens as anyone else, so I don’t know if I could pull the trigger (unless a Homer makes an offer I can’t refuse).

So shopping Goff and finally letting go of Hardman might very well be in my near future! I will have to get my feelers out and put some guys on the block to see what kind of interest they draw.

And yes, I think you are absolutely correct that stacking DLs is the way to go long term since they are so scarce. Great TEs and DLs are rarities. Very astute to see the point gaps (easier to find a WR than a DL, and the point difference between great and good). That’s the key to winning!

 

[chrishansen]

Most teams have just two QBs (guessing there might be only a couple with 3 QBs). So with 14 teams (figure 28 QBs, 30 if there’s two teams with 3) that means there’s usually a starter or two on the waiver wire. Yeah, a great QB is always in demand, but there’s little value between the 14th best QB or the 28th best QB in our league. Goff won’t be anyone’s starter (unless he really starts putting up njumbers on a consistent basis) and probably won’t bring a ton of trade value as someone’s backup.

But you never know. I can certainly take a peak at everyone’s rosters and find out for sure. Even if I’m right, he might be able to net be a better spot in next years draft or something.

Love would have trade value now (we have some GB Packer fan “homers” in the league) for anyone who is extremely optimistic. But I really like the “stack” opportunities you mentioned (Watson, Doubs and perhaps Musgrave if I can snag him). His trade value might be the highest now (before reality hits), but I’m just as anxious to see what happens as anyone else, so I don’t know if I could pull the trigger (unless a Homer makes an offer I can’t refuse).

So shopping Goff and finally letting go of Hardman might very well be in my near future! I will have to get my feelers out and put some guys on the block to see what kind of interest they draw.

And yes, I think you are absolutely correct that stacking DLs is the way to go long term since they are so scarce. Great TEs and DLs are rarities. Very astute to see the point gaps (easier to find a WR than a DL, and the point difference between great and good). That’s the key to winning!

Sounds like dumping Goff to open up a spot. Keep Love Bye Weeks or matchups since ya got the stack. Could hype up Goff to someone with Briwn or Williams and maybe sell the Porta pick for nice stack if someone is so so at QB with a piece of lions offense

Or trade love but I would be breaking up other GB guys if so. Maybe just keep Dillon Watson.

All in how you value love moving forward.

Hardmon Goff Ruck Free up 3 spots. Stack up more DL RB or upside young WR.


Kinda seems like Kincaid is more in play first pick. Fits a need and gets a pairing with Allen for several years. How doable is he RD 1 ya think?

 

[sds23]

I think there will be 1 TE selected in the first round (2, if I take one) if historical trends for my league continue. I’m liking the idea of a first round TE more and more. So that means I should also try to shop one of my current TEs before the draft (Gesicki or Otten).

Neither Gesicki nor Otten will bring a ton of interest, so I might end up just dumping one of them. But which one? The Patriots just landed Gesicki and have publicly said that they consider him a WR as much as TE. Very interesting comment that has me contemplating potential implications. But he does have a ceiling with H. Hunter in front of him.

Meanwhile Otten seemed to be carving a role out for himself last year as a rookie in TB …. but who’s throwing him the ball this season? And will he continue to develop? One of these guys needs to be my backup TE or temporary starter if I draft one and need to wait a bit until they start producing.

Man, I was just looking at the rosters in my league to check out the QB situation. I was right, only one or two teams have more than 2 QBs (and these cases involve a rookie they value, or a QB who might be in flux) and seem to have unique reason for doing so. Most every team (as expected), had 2 legit starters on the roster. So backups are not going to be highly valued.

BUT …. I was shocked to see how Goff’s yearly production stacks with other teams starters. While my Allen is good for 400 pts per year, this is rare. Very few QBs do this. The “good” QBs are more like 300-325 pts per year. Goff had his second best season of his career last year with 295 pts. That surprised me. Cousins, Dak, and guys like that barely approached 300 pts.

Can Love be a 300 pt per year guy? That’s what I need to determine now after seeing those stats. Yeah, I rarely use my backup, but if Allen ever gets hurt I might be sorry to see a guy like Goff on another roster (unless Love is equal).

PS - News from NY says that the Jets are expanding Hardman’s route tree, looking to take advantage of his 4.4 speed. I can propbaly pump him up and offer a trade, but I’m kinda optimistic myself after reading about plans for him in NY.

Decisions, decisions. At least there’s plenty of time for me to research and contemplate my moves.

 

[chrishansen]

I think there will be 1 TE selected in the first round (2, if I take one) if historical trends for my league continue. I’m liking the idea of a first round TE more and more. So that means I should also try to shop one of my current TEs before the draft (Gesicki or Otten).

Neither Gesicki nor Otten will bring a ton of interest, so I might end up just dumping one of them. But which one? The Patriots just landed Gesicki and have publicly said that they consider him a WR as much as TE. Very interesting comment that has me contemplating potential implications. But he does have a ceiling with H. Hunter in front of him.

Meanwhile Otten seemed to be carving a role out for himself last year as a rookie in TB …. but who’s throwing him the ball this season? And will he continue to develop? One of these guys needs to be my backup TE or temporary starter if I draft one and need to wait a bit until they start producing.

Man, I was just looking at the rosters in my league to check out the QB situation. I was right, only one or two teams have more than 2 QBs (and these cases involve a rookie they value, or a QB who might be in flux) and seem to have unique reason for doing so. Most every team (as expected), had 2 legit starters on the roster. So backups are not going to be highly valued.

BUT …. I was shocked to see how Goff’s yearly production stacks with other teams starters. While my Allen is good for 400 pts per year, this is rare. Very few QBs do this. The “good” QBs are more like 300-325 pts per year. Goff had his second best season of his career last year with 295 pts. That surprised me. Cousins, Dak, and guys like that barely approached 300 pts.

Can Love be a 300 pt per year guy? That’s what I need to determine now after seeing those stats. Yeah, I rarely use my backup, but if Allen ever gets hurt I might be sorry to see a guy like Goff on another roster (unless Love is equal).

PS - News from NY says that the Jets are expanding Hardman’s route tree, looking to take advantage of his 4.4 speed. I can propbaly pump him up and offer a trade, but I’m kinda optimistic myself after reading about plans for him in NY.

Decisions, decisions. At least there’s plenty of time for me to research and contemplate my moves.

I never trust patriots offense or use of a guy.

And I can’t buy into NYJ pumping up Hardmon. AR has his guys and system. Too many mouths to feed imo.

Sounds like you need to rid a QB or Both if being aggressive. Waiver wire will have something if anything. Love stock that high maybe sell see what ya can get. Goff is cut if the points are just on par with other stuff likely on WW.

I’d just value depth at RB DL equity. WR maybe but I’d imagine they can be had on WW.

 

[chrishansen]

Mock me the top 14 picks you think are possible. Picks 1-14.

Considering you have two RD 1 next year Harrison WR Powers TE have serious elite status imo. Being in position to land one maybe just maybe both is a long term outlook. I’d imagine Williams Drake go 1-2. Harrison or Sanders 3. Powers by next draft will be so hyped up I’d be surprised fantasy wise he dips past 8.

Mock me up 1-14 so I can grab a feel on how guys may draft. Curious the value of defense vs offense and Carter Wilson Van Ness how valued they may be

 

[sds23]

Mock me the top 14 picks you think are possible. Picks 1-14.

Considering you have two RD 1 next year Harrison WR Powers TE have serious elite status imo. Being in position to land one maybe just maybe both is a long term outlook. I’d imagine Williams Drake go 1-2. Harrison or Sanders 3. Powers by next draft will be so hyped up I’d be surprised fantasy wise he dips past 8.

Mock me up 1-14 so I can grab a feel on how guys may draft. Curious the value of defense vs offense and Carter Wilson Van Ness how valued they may be

I’ll definitely do that. Let me do some quick digging and see what I can come up with.

I’ll also check to see whose pick I have for that extra 1st Round pick (and see if I can determine how high of a draft pick it might be). That will be key to knowing if I will be inside of the top 8 or even top 5.

 

[sds23]

I’ll definitely do that. Let me do some quick digging and see what I can come up with.

I’ll also check to see whose pick I have for that extra 1st Round pick (and see if I can determine how high of a draft pick it might be). That will be key to knowing if I will be inside of the top 8 or even top 5.

RE: Next year’s second 1st Round pick is from a team that historically does not perform extremely well. And judging by their current roster, it could potentially end up being a top 5 pick.

As far as my own pick, unless the wheels fall off or I get hit by the injury bug, I’d expect that I will have one of the last 4 picks in Round 1.

So in terms of next year’s rookie draft, let’s make a rough conservative guess that I will have picks #5 and #12.

 

[sds23]

Mock me the top 14 picks you think are possible. Picks 1-14.

Considering you have two RD 1 next year Harrison WR Powers TE have serious elite status imo. Being in position to land one maybe just maybe both is a long term outlook. I’d imagine Williams Drake go 1-2. Harrison or Sanders 3. Powers by next draft will be so hyped up I’d be surprised fantasy wise he dips past 8.

Mock me up 1-14 so I can grab a feel on how guys may draft. Curious the value of defense vs offense and Carter Wilson Van Ness how valued they may be

Okay, as per my private message to you, I heard back from my coaching buddy (who is also in this league). When originally asked, he was hesitant due to it being so early. He also stressed that he believes there could be some interesting pre-draft trades and such that will shake up any projections.

With that being said, I trust his crystal ball to be the most accurate information we can have at this point. Here is a cut and paste from his e-mailed response:

“So here are my thoughts on the first two rounds of the upcoming draft for IDP:

Round 1:
RB,WR,WR,QB,QB,QB,WR,WR,WR,TE,WR,RB,TE,RB (Mock Draft Consensus) (6-WR, 3-RB,3-QB,2-TE)

WR,RB,QB,RB,QB,QB,WR,DL/LB,WR,RB,WR,TE,WR,QB (Me taking Def) (5-WR, 3-RB, 4-QB, 1-TE, 1-DL/LB)

Things to note about Rd 1- Person A (Named Removed) has picks 1 and 7, he is a big MN fan. Funny enough mocks have him either taking Robinson or Njiba at 1.1, and then almost every mock has him taking Addison at 7 from MN. Person B’s wife (Name Removed) picks right after you at 12, and Person B always drafts for her, so me taking a Def player at 8 (Or WR from LAC, I'm now on the fence lol) will force him to take a TE. However, he is a HUGE Chicago fan, and I could see him pulling a trigger with his wife's profile for the new Chicago RB. Otherwise, 3-4 will auto pick and the draft will fall the way the mocks are stating.

Round 2:
With me going DEF/DEF at 1.8 and 2.1, what most of the mocks say are as follows:
LB,TE,RB,TE,RB,RB,RB,WR,RB,WR,RB,QB,TE,RB (6-RB, 2-WR, 2-TE, 1-LB, 1-QB)

The draft room for non auto pickers is going to be very gullable. My taking two defensive players early will spook a couple folks. But, the run on RB is apparent in Round 2. I would advise you to take a TE for sure in Rd 1 if you want one, they will be gone by 2.6 in almost all drafts.

Round3-5: I cannot decipher anything at this time as Sleeper does not have defensive players weights yet for ADP. That is also the situation where we have to wait and see what happens. Person C (Name Removed) could trade out of the 1.1, and a couple guys who lack a first round pick this year could move a player to get back in the game. Seeing the run on RB in Round 2, and the fact that sleeper has all QB's going by 1.7, I am forced to either double dip on the guys I want at LB or take the LAC WR if he makes it to 8 and go from there. If Person C (Name Removed) surprises the world and does not homer pick MN at 1.7, there could be some value dropping.”