2022 World Cup in Qatar........MASTER THREAD

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peanuts

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peanuts

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I'm waiting for another Qatar loss against Senegal.
 

phelps123

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I hope the US could pull it off upset, but that English team is solid. Should be a great game!
Not going to happen. My team is going to demolish your team.
 

peanuts

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Not going to happen. My team is going to demolish your team.
Don't underestimate your opponent, look what happened with Argentina.
 

phelps123

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Argentina is shit.
 

phelps123

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They played bad against Saudi Arabia and they deserved that loss.
 

peanuts

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They played bad against Saudi Arabia and they deserved that loss.
Just a bad game. I'm guessing they will win the game against Mexico tomorrow.
 

rwjr

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the BEST thing about the World Cup is you get H:fire:T CHICKS from all over the w🌎rld (y)
 

MAGAking1

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Shot in the dark team

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phelps123

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Ecuador failed to save Qatar.
 

peanuts

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the BEST thing about the World Cup is you get H:fire:T CHICKS from all over the w🌎rld (y)
We need to start posting these hot chicks.
 

MAGAking1

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WC Sat Betting Guide

Tunisia (+115) vs. Australia (+260)​

Draw odds: +220

Neither team here is better than 30th in the FIFA world rankings. Australia is 38th, and Tunisia is 30th. Neither played particularly tough qualifying schedules, either.

Tunisia played Denmark to a 0-0 draw in their opening match of the World Cup, a surprising score given a total of 2.3 expected goals (1.4 to 0.9 in favor of Denmark -- to clarify).

Australia scored an early goal on France but ultimately succumbed 4-1 in one of the more accurate portrayals of the expected goal battle (4.0 to 0.5) we saw in the opening days of World Cup action.

This should be one of the lower-scoring games we see on the weekend, thus making the under (2.5) an interesting play even at -158 odds. The true under odds on 2.5 goals, per my model, should be -180.

Poland (-135) vs. Saudi Arabia (+400)​

Draw odds: +260

Is Saudi Arabia for real? They bested Argentina 2-1 in a World Cup shocker to open play on Tuesday. However, the expected goal data told an incredibly different story: 2.2 to 0.1 in favor of Argentina.

As for Poland, they drew 0-0 with Mexico and had an expected goal output of 0.9 while allowing one of 0.7 to Mexico.

There's a big gap in FIFA rankings between the two sides (Saudi Arabia is 51st, and Poland is 26th) -- and in adjusted qualifying goal differential (Poland is 15th among World Cup teams at +1.73, and Saudi Arabia is 29th at +1.12).

Once again, the under (2.5) looks promising at -138 odds. The true odds by my model should be -160, and neither team put forth a strong offensive showing in the opening round.

numberFire's model also loves Poland (-135) as a four-star play.

France (-135) vs. Denmark (+380)​

Draw odds: +260

France survived an early "scare" by Australia and ended up winning 4-1 against the Socceroos, thanks to 4.0 expected goals.

Denmark couldn't convert on 1.4 expected goals and wound up in a scoreless draw with Tunisia, who is 30th in the FIFA rankings.

Notably, numberFire's model loves Denmark and has them ranked higher (9th) than France (10th), and that's not reflected in the FIFA world rankings, which have France 4th and Denmark 10th.

It's also not reflected in the betting odds with Denmark as a +380 underdog. Therefore, the model here is actually backing Denmark's moneyline (+380) while giving them a 35.8% win probability.

But the best bet available is Denmark +1.0 (+100). Our algorithm has that as a five-star play.

Argentina (-190) vs. Mexico (+550)​

Draw odds: +310

Can Argentina bounce back? The oddsmakers say so and consider them -190 (around 65.5%) to beat Mexico, who is +550 (or 15.4% likely for a win).

Despite besting Saudi Arabia 2.2 to 0.1 in the expected goal department, Argentina lost their opener and now needs to make up ground.

numberFire's model thinks Argentina is 63.7% likely to win but doesn't indicate spread or moneyline value in this matchup.

Instead, it's the under (2.5) that has the most value. These teams combined for 2.2 and 1.6 expected goals in their openers; the long-term data suggests under 2.5 should be a good bet at -118 odds.
 

MAGAking1

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MAGAking1

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Betting Guide for Thursday

Canada (+270) vs. Morocco (+105)​

Draw odds: +230

Canada is already eliminated from Group F, so this is a three-team race for the two qualifying spots. Morocco has earned four points thus far and now faces a Canada side that has lost both matches.

Morocco needs just a draw to advance despite owning what I have as the second-worst offense in the World Cup by opponent-adjusted expected goals (xG) per match (0.46). They've earned points behind a strong defense, permitting 0.63 adjusted xG per match, a top-six mark.

Given a bad offense and good defense for the favored side, this one seems like it'll play close to even if Morocco does convert on their advancement opportunity (and a draw will do). For that reason, Canada +1.0 (-150) rates out as the best option here.

Croatia (+165) vs. Belgium (+165)​

Draw odds: +230

This matchup is totally even between Belgium and Croatia, each of whom is +165 to win. Draw odds are pretty high at +230.

A win will see either side advance, so we can expect a bit of urgency in this matchup.

Belgium (0.79 adjusted xG per match) ranks only 26th among World Cup offenses through two matches. Croatia (1.67) ranks fourth while also boasting the third-best defensive output (0.37 xG allowed with adjustments).

The best value here is under 2.5 goals (-136). Belgium has struggled to find the back of the net without Romelu Lukaku, although Lukaku may be fit to start in this one, and Croatia's defense is on point. My model thinks the under should be -155.

Japan (+750) vs. Spain (-270)​

Draw odds: +380

I'm hesitant to call Spain a big favorite with Germany lurking in the next match preview, but they're still a big favorite versus Japan.

A win gets Spain the top spot in Group E, but a draw alone is enough for them to move on.

Japan advances with a win and is eliminated with a loss; a draw plus an unlikely Costa Rica win would eliminate Japan.

Unsurprisingly, Spain rates out well in adjusted xG allowed (0.43 per match to rank them fourth), but they're also sixth (1.54) offensively. Japan is about average offensively (1.07) and defensively (1.14).

numberFire's model thinks Japan should be projected for only 0.47 goals in this match, and with the impetus for a Spanish win, they should be able to put up enough goals to cover. Spain -1.0 (+110) is a five-star suggestion by numberFire's model.

Costa Rica (+1900) vs. Germany (-1000)​

Draw odds: +850

Germany has earned just a single point through two matches. They must win and have Spain convert as favorites with a win. If Japan beats Spain, Germany can still advance with a win provided that they overcome an eight-goal deficit by goal differential.

Point being: Germany needs a win no matter what, and they should have the offensive urgency cranked up to 11.

My numbers have Germany as the best offense in the World Cup (2.85 adjusted xG per match) despite just a single goal in each match. A breakthrough seems to be lurking against a Costa Rica team that has barely registered on the xG scale (0.0 and 0.1 in their respective matches to date). Defensively, they're 28th in adjusted xG (1.66).

numberFire's model still likes Costa Rica +3.0 (+100) due to the sheer number on that spread (the model is projecting a final score of 2.49 to 0.31).

Data-wise, Germany over 3.5 goals (+132) is actually a fine bet, too, as wild as it sounds.
 

Bozzie

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Netherlands are unbeaten in their 15 games under Louis van Gaal...pretty tasty tidbit
Dutch now 18-0 with Van Gaal heading the team.... Gonna be a tough one for the US to pull off.
Netherlands Gappo is a monster...
 

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