142nd Kentucky Oaks Picks
from Sports Investment Group
The highlights of the Friday card at Churchill Downs is
The Longines Kentucky Oaks (Gr. 1) with a post time of 5:49pm EPST. This race is for Three-Year-Old fillies who are out to battle for a $1,000,000 purse.
Fourteen fillies, plus one also-eligible are entered in the 142[SUP]
nd[/SUP] Kentucky Oaks, but it might be the one who is missing which is the biggest story of this year’s edition of the race. The absence of 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner, Songbird, will make this a more competitive race and that will benefit horseplayers who can properly predict the outcome.
Songbird, who has been dominating fields since her two-year-old campaign developed a fever after her last outing in the Santa Anita Oaks and was forced to skip this race as she was unable to train during her treatment. Songbird’s absence opens the door for a number of her fellow fillies who were most likely running for second place if she participated in this race.
The 7-2 favorite on the Morning Line is #11 Rachel’s Valentina, a Todd Pletcher trainee out of Bernadini and 2009 Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra. This filly broke her maiden at Saratoga in August and followed that up with a victory in the Spinaway (Gr. 1) also at Saratoga before running second to the aforementioned Songbird in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland in October. She returned from a six month layoff at Keeneland in April to be beaten by a neck by a hard charging Weep No More in the Ashland (Gr. 1) but was without her usual jockey, John Velazquez who returns to ride on Friday.
The line makers have installed both Ashland winner #2 Weep No More as well as #12 Cathryn Sophia as co-second selections at 9-2. Weep No More, out of Mineshaft and Crosswinds is trained by George “Rusty” Arnold has come from behind to win each of her last three starts. Cathryn Sophia, out of Street Boss and Sheave is trained by John Servis and is the fastest horse in the race on paper, but questions remain whether she can get the one and one-eighth mile distance it takes to win the Oaks. She should be on the lead with Rachel’s Valentina turning for home.
Our selection in this race is #13 Land Over Sea who was installed at 5-1 on the Morning Line. The daughter of Bellamy Road and Belle Watling is trained by Doug O’Neil and will have Mario Gutierrez in the irons on Friday. This filly only has two wins in her career, including last out in the Fair Grounds Oaks on March 26[SUP]
th[/SUP], but what we find interesting is her three runner-up finishes to the dominating Songbird who she will not have to contend with in this race.
At 8-1, #3 Lewis Bay, a Chad Brown trainee is also a horse to consider as she has finished in the Exacta in every race in her career to date, and she is the only horse in the field to not only race twice at the distance, but she won both times she ran at that distance.
Our longshot selection in this race is #8 Royal Obsession (20-1 ML). This lightly raced Steve Asmussen trainee out of Tapit and Rote has improved in each start by leaps and bounds and was the runner-up to Lewis Bay in the Gazelle (Gr. 2) off a two-month layoff. She could put up a nice run at a big odds on Friday.
How we are betting $100 the Kentucky Oaks (scale to your bankroll):
#13 Land Over Sea $5 Win $15 Place $30 Show ($50)
#8 Royal Obsession $2 Win $6 Place ($8)
$2 Exacta 11-13/2-3-8-11-13 ($16)
$1 Exacta Key Box 8/2-3-11-13 ($8) upset special
$0.50 Trifecta Box 3-8-11-13 ($12)
$1 DD 8,11,13/5,12 ($6)
