2015 Preakness Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

:aktion033 Let's begin this Preakness thread with some 'kudos' for the Kentucky Derby........

...........A big congrats to American Pharoah and to his connections...............good for them...........

This derby was rather strange as the 3 favorites took to the front and never were challenged ...............like watching a Merry Go Round.......and the same 3 horses always in the front...........but so be it...............why did no other horse come running, except I believe Frosted who finished 4th.

............. A big Kudos to Mr Jon White ( and his derby strikes ) who once again had the winner among his zero or 1 strike choices, and who stated that Pharoah was his top choice................

And it does not happen often, but if you look back at the Raw Times that each of these horses ran in the 1 mile 1/8........you had the trifecta......

................................................time 1 1/8 race
Firing Line...................................1.47.2
American Pharoah........................1.48.2
Dortmund...................................1.48.3
Carpe Diem.................................1.49.3

Again, it's rare to see, but on this day it occurred....


.................now on to the Preakness............

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: It seems like there isn't going to be a full field for this race.................and normally the winner comes from the Derby.............so handicapping this Preakness , I believe will be easy, ....................and to just select one of the top big boys again..............

.....American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund...............

Going to wait and see the field, but who out there is going to challenge them...................

Just don't see any other horses at this time...............................

Be well all.........and talk to you soon................

 

[Kaboom]

Pedigree wise ..... Carpe Diem ... I believe can beat AP here in the Preakness .... He is very similar Pedigree to 2 previous winners Shackleford /$27 to win and Point Given / $6.60 to win , and also has 3 more in the money runners from Preakness races that he is a bit similar to .... Bodemeister, Ride on Curlin and Creative Cause ...

This horse will be in all my exotics .....

I don't like how I noticed how similar American Pharoah's pedigree is to 2014 3rd place finisher , Social Inclusion ...

Also have some similar Pedigree ... Mr Z and Stanford ... like First Dude 2010 2nd place finisher ...

Just my opinion guys ... no need to bash ..

 

[elevenblack301]

Kaboom,

As always ............thanks..................interesting angle with the pedigrees........

 

[wabashwonders]

Looks like 7 are confirmed right now for Preakness with 5 others pending.

Confirmed entries...

AP
Firing Line
Dortmund
Danzig Moon
Divining Rod
Badhisattva
Tale of the Verve

Pending entries...

Carpe Diem
Materiality
Competitive Edge
Grand Bill
Stanford

 

[Kaboom]

Pedigree wise ..... Carpe Diem ... I believe can beat AP here in the Preakness .... He is very similar Pedigree to 2 previous winners Shackleford /$27 to win and Point Given / $6.60 to win , and also has 3 more in the money runners from Preakness races that he is a bit similar to .... Bodemeister, Ride on Curlin and Creative Cause ...

This horse will be in all my exotics .....

I don't like how I noticed how similar American Pharoah's pedigree is to 2014 3rd place finisher , Social Inclusion ...

Also have some similar Pedigree ... Mr Z and Stanford ... like First Dude 2010 2nd place finisher ...

Just my opinion guys ... no need to bash ..

No Carpe Diem .... not running ...

 

[elevenblack301]

No Carpe Diem .... not running ...

Seems like not too many are going to run ?

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: As I always do............here are some thoughts on the potential contenders before the posts positions are drawn........


American Pharoah .........the Preakness will be his third start in just 6 weeks and I did not like the way he bore out coming out of the final turn in the Derby. It was also telling that Victor Espinoza had to work him so hard going to the whip over 20 times throughout the stretch run....what does he have left........

Bodhisattva.......................local horse and the only colt with both a start and a win on the Pimlico track.................he will be a closer and will make one big run at the end, but think there are too many horses that outclass him in this race

Danzig Moon ................think he fits nicely again as the big bomber............I liked him as my top longshot in the Derby and will again use him in this regard for the Preakness ..........as I believe that the Preakness pace will be a bit more testing than the Derby was....

Divining Rod...................think this lightly raced colt may be a toss for me.........

Dortmund....................Not many people know this ,but I heard all after the fact that just days before the Derby, Dortmund encountered a bout with colic after a workout. Think he is set to run his type of race and will be a win contender for me in the Preakness.

Firing Line................. This horse is a tough one and I believe that Gary Stevens will take him right to the lead in this race, but as I said he would tire in the Derby..........which he didn’t...........maybe this is the race where he might fade...................\

Materiality.................. had a bad trip in the Derby..............and think he will make up for it here.................will be my other win contender to go along with Dortmund

Stanford ..............who was a late scratch in the Kentucky Derby field as he was not ‘ready or 100 %’ ....why would he be now ????? ...I don’t buy into him..............

Tale of Verve. ...................he comes from the trainer that brought us the recent deep closer Derby bombers Golden Soul and Commanding Curve.....has a huge step up in class here though..............but who knows...............

Be well all..................

 

[Kaboom]

No horse since 2000 has won the Preakness with the 4th Generation Storm Cat in it's Pedigree ... This year we have Firing Line with the 4th Generation Storm Cat ... Many will care less about that stat , but , to me ... I always consider ...

 

[elevenblack301]

No horse since 2000 has won the Preakness with the 4th Generation Storm Cat in it's Pedigree ... This year we have Firing Line with the 4th Generation Storm Cat ... Many will care less about that stat , but , to me ... I always consider ...

Not a big fan of his to begin with.........................now I have a little more ammo to go against him............don't think he hits the board......

Thanks...................be well................always appreciate your info

 

[gremlinlad]

A probable field of seven is now expected for the Xpressbet.com Preakness Stakes (gr. I) after Todd Pletcher announced May 12 he will not have an entrant in the May 16 race at Pimlico Race Course that is the second leg of racing's Triple Crown.

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...will-not-have-preakness-starter#ixzz3ZwgytRd1
​

 

[elevenblack301]

Well, 7 horses.....................only 7.........................going to be a lackluster Preakness...................got to be the smallest field in many years..............

Really was hoping Materiality would run.................

 

[Kaboom]

For anyone interested ....http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness15.pdf

 

[honzie]

Bring on the Belmont already...same 3 KD finishers on top in this one too. Tri will pay $12!

 

[Kaboom]

Bring on the Belmont already...same 3 KD finishers on top in this one too. Tri will pay $12!

... with that said ...

Move on to the Belmont ....

Frosted is going to win the Belmont. (if entered) He traveled farther than any horse in the KY Derby and he was gaining at the end. A horse length is about 8 feet. 10 furlongs = 6600 feet.


Frosted - 6730 feet
American Pharoah - 6723 feet
Firing Line - 6694 feet
Dortmund - 6654 feet

 

[elevenblack301]

... with that said ...

Move on to the Belmont ....

Frosted is going to win the Belmont. (if entered) He traveled farther than any horse in the KY Derby and he was gaining at the end. A horse length is about 8 feet. 10 furlongs = 6600 feet.


Frosted - 6730 feet
American Pharoah - 6723 feet
Firing Line - 6694 feet
Dortmund - 6654 feet

Liked Frosted in the Derby and will love him in the Belmont

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Still think that it is going to be tough to beat the big 3 in this race..................who is there to knock them off.....

The Belmont can't come soon enough............................but we must play some tickets on this race to play along..........

The selections are:

.....Win Contenders....................Dortmund, American Pharoah ( boy that was a tough capping job, wasn't it )

.... Board Hitters...................... Danzig Moon, Tale of Verve, Divining Rod, Firing Line

Really like this maiden winner Tale of Verve ( Dallas Stewart loves to bring in the dogs ) to be the best longshot to hit the board............expect him to be sitting back and have one long run at the leaders........

So simply put...................going to box these six in the exotics and will let the chips fall where they may................


Be well all..........and best of luck........................let's all cash some tickets, hope they are not all of those miniature payoffs when the faves sweep the board.

...............The Belmont can't come soon enough..............

 

[Kaboom]

:think2: Still think that it is going to be tough to beat the big 3 in this race..................who is there to knock them off.....

The Belmont can't come soon enough............................but we must play some tickets on this race to play along..........

The selections are:

.....Win Contenders....................Dortmund, American Pharoah ( boy that was a tough capping job, wasn't it )

.... Board Hitters...................... Danzig Moon, Tale of Verve, Divining Rod, Firing Line

Really like this maiden winner Tale of Verve ( Dallas Stewart loves to bring in the dogs ) to be the best longshot to hit the board............expect him to be sitting back and have one long run at the leaders........

So simply put...................going to box these six in the exotics and will let the chips fall where they may................


Be well all..........and best of luck........................let's all cash some tickets, hope they are not all of those miniature payoffs when the faves sweep the board.

...............The Belmont can't come soon enough..............

Wish i had that bankroll , bud !! Good luck !!

 

[Don'tCountOnIt]

Black or Kaboom, Do you guys think Dortmund is tired? For some reason my mind keeps telling me he is. I get Firing lining challenged him in the derby with a late speed dual but I have a feeling he is too tired for the Preakness. Any thoughts?

 

[macb]

Black or Kaboom, Do you guys think Dortmund is tired? For some reason my mind keeps telling me he is. I get Firing lining challenged him in the derby with a late speed dual but I have a feeling he is too tired for the Preakness. Any thoughts?

He had a small bout with colic week of Derby. May have been tired then. hope he is fresh today