2015 NCAAB Systems

[rolltide]

won't post everyday but will do so when time allows

OVER after team came from huge HT deficit to win a lined game. 85-33-3 o/u (ILL/PROV over) - currently 147

 

[indiana]

R/T..........BOL with tonight's action...........indy

 

[rolltide]

thx indy. in addition to normal size play on Illini o147 i have a decent system for unders that would be Kennesaw St u150.5 and Fairfield u140.5 which is to play UNDER for away team playing 3rd away game in a week after getting blown out in previous two away games. Both Kennesaw and Fairfield are in that spot tonight but the november results aren't as impressive as conference play so just small on those two. I will say that when they're expected to be blown out again (DD dog) these unders are 70% with 175 sample size so i am playing them

 

[amarp21]

good luck tide

 

[Incubus]

thx indy. in addition to normal size play on Illini o147 i have a decent system for unders that would be Kennesaw St u150.5 and Fairfield u140.5 which is to play UNDER for away team playing 3rd away game in a week after getting blown out in previous two away games. Both Kennesaw and Fairfield are in that spot tonight but the november results aren't as impressive as conference play so just small on those two. I will say that when they're expected to be blown out again (DD dog) these unders are 70% with 175 sample size so i am playing them

This is a great thread, Rolltide, and thanks for posting the findings of your system.

Illinois - Prividence OVER 147
Kennesaw State - Arizona State UNDER 150.5
Fairfield - Northwestern UNDER 140.5

I'll be very interested how this turns out!

 

[rolltide]

reminder from a few years ago. look for spots to play UNDER really high totals (>=150) in first 10 games of season. Of course with new rules there is no guarantee that they'll continue at a 60% under clip but historically speaking....

game number <= 10 and total >= 150 and A
SU: 182-510 (-7.98, 26.3%) ATS: 346-337-9 (0.36, 50.7%) avg line: 8.3 O/U: 282-400-10 (-3.15, 41.3%) avg total: 156.1

 

[ryboy2222]

Can anyone explain the Straight up and ats numbers for me in this trend. Would the number on the left just be the visiting team and home team on the right? I get that we are looking at the over/under for this trend, but I'm curious what the other two represent?

reminder from a few years ago. look for spots to play UNDER really high totals (>=150) in first 10 games of season. Of course with new rules there is no guarantee that they'll continue at a 60% under clip but historically speaking....

game number <= 10 and total >= 150 and A
SU: 182-510 (-7.98, 26.3%) ATS: 346-337-9 (0.36, 50.7%) avg line: 8.3 O/U: 282-400-10 (-3.15, 41.3%) avg total: 156.1

 

[rolltide]

since it was queried on "Away" the number to left is away team and to the right is home team



one starting shortly. teams after playing Maryland away have been awful..... Wisconsin -1.5 would be the play to oppose Georgetown



po:team = MD and date > 20110218 and p:A and rest < 5 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L (marg, %win)	SDQL
1	0-1-0 (-9.00, 0.0%)	13.0	0-1-0 (-6.50, 0.0%)	136.5	0-1 (-22.00, 0.0%)	season = 2015
21	6-9-1 (-1.16, 40.0%)	3.3	6-5-1 (4.71, 54.5%)	131.5	7-14 (-4.33, 33.3%)	season = 2014
14	3-8-0 (-4.86, 27.3%)	3.1	4-7-0 (1.23, 36.4%)	133.0	4-10 (-9.79, 28.6%)	season = 2013
19	3-10-0 (-5.08, 23.1%)	0.4	5-7-0 (-4.33, 41.7%)	139.2	6-13 (-3.53, 31.6%)	season = 2012
17	2-10-0 (-8.17, 16.7%)	0.4	6-6-0 (2.42, 50.0%)	137.2	7-10 (-5.24, 41.2%)	season = 2011
3	0-2-1 (-3.17, 0.0%)	1.2	1-2-0 (-3.33, 33.3%)	134.3	1-2 (-4.33, 33.3%)	season = 2010

Showing 1 to 6 of 6 entries

 

[rolltide]

UTAH has been outstanding off a good defensive game where a decent portion of the opponents points were from FT line.

season > 2010 and pooints < 76 and team = UTAH and po:free throws made > 8 and po:field goals made < 27 SU: 48-24 (7.68, 66.7%) ATS: 52-16-0 (4.40, 76.5%) avg line: -1.4 O/U: 29-31-1 (-1.77, 48.3%) avg total: 132.8 FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers H1 H2 Final Team 24.17 47.2 14.44 72.0 6.61 36.9 4.03 7.04 30.85 16.12 14.29 11.67 32.5 36.5 69.4 Opp 22.13 40.7 12.09 67.2 5.70 32.7 3.26 8.61 29.43 18.01 10.64 11.47 28.2 33.2 61.7 Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 20, 2015 box Fri 2015 UTAH MIA home 0&0 2.0 151.5

 

[rolltide]

as noted above we will have to see about new rules but of bigger games that majority of books post totals taking unders in 160+ early in season has been easy money.

total > 159 and H and season > 2006 and game number < 14 and (month = 11 or month = 12)
SU: 177-65 (7.69, 73.1%) ATS: 122-115-5 (-0.33, 51.5%) avg line: -8.0 O/U: 78-163-1 (-8.76, 32.4%) avg total: 163.8
FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers H1 H2 Final Team 28.56 47.2 17.28 69.9 6.70 35.7 4.22 10.69 35.63 18.80 15.58 13.80 38.7 42.1 81.3 Opp 25.97 42.3 14.72 69.9 6.60 32.2 3.22 10.21 32.02 20.75 12.63 14.57 34.8 38.4 73.7
Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 20, 2015 box Fri 2015 VILL ETSU home 2&2 -24.0 161.5

interesting one tonight:
DePaul is 11-29 o/u in game following a good defensive outing (allowed <73) and South Carolina is 17-42 o/u after good defensive game. These teams play tonight and both allowed <73 last game

 

[rolltide]

PLAY ON away non-conf dog that creates turnovers off a win with at least 2 more away games on tap (on BGSU +7, on AUS PEAY +6.5, on FLA ATL +9.5) 177-101-7 (1-1 ytd)


OPPOSE small home fav off a narrow win vs opponent off b2b wins of 11+ (on BGSU +7) 42-26-3 (1-2 ytd)


UNDER Cincy after good defensive game, total >=117. 11-58 o/u (today under 140.5 vs Xavier)


UNDER Rider after good defensive game 9-30-1 o/u (highly doubt this will get a total posted)


UNDER 3rd away game in a week after b2b big away losses 89-175-5 o/u (IUPUI/Creighton under 150)

 

[rolltide]

oppose small home fav off a narrow win vs opponent off b2b DD wins 42-27-3, 1-2 ytd (on Monmouth)


play on non-conf dog<16 off away/neutral win with 2 or more away games coming 191-131-9, 1-5-1 ytd (on Monmouth, Mercer)


OPPOSE away team off a double digit win as a home dog. 67-34-2 (on South Carolina)

 

[wdmcleod]

Always intriguing to see your post.....
Let's have some fun... $$$$$$

 

[creelox]

drexel was not at home when they won against lasalle last game...does that throw out s carolina as a play?

 

[rolltide]

drexel was not at home when they won against lasalle last game...does that throw out s carolina as a play?

no was just me trying to shortcut the full explanation

it's opposing any SU solid dog winner by 10+, home or away, vs opponent off b2b home wins with previous win by 18 or less (did not win by blowout to influence line in their favor) ... long term is 103-63-3 ATS with no losing season

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L (marg, %win)	SDQL
5	2-2-0 (-5.50, 50.0%)	2.8	0-2-0 (-10.50, 0.0%)	137.0	1-4 (-9.80, 20.0%)	season = 2015
21	8-10-1 (0.13, 44.4%)	3.4	4-2-1 (-1.07, 66.7%)	136.4	9-12 (-2.95, 42.9%)	season = 2014
18	6-11-1 (-2.64, 35.3%)	3.4	7-11-0 (-4.08, 38.9%)	142.0	7-11 (-6.06, 38.9%)	season = 2013
14	4-10-0 (-4.64, 28.6%)	3.8	5-6-0 (-0.77, 45.5%)	133.3	4-10 (-8.43, 28.6%)	season = 2012
25	11-12-2 (-2.36, 47.8%)	1.7	11-12-1 (2.42, 47.8%)	135.3	10-15 (-4.08, 40.0%)	season = 2011
17	7-9-0 (-1.59, 43.8%)	-2.0	8-8-0 (-1.38, 50.0%)	136.8	8-9 (-0.18, 47.1%)	season = 2010
19	7-10-1 (-1.42, 41.2%)	0.8	7-10-0 (1.18, 41.2%)	134.1	8-11 (-1.58, 42.1%)	season = 2009
26	8-18-0 (-3.81, 30.8%)	3.5	12-13-1 (3.25, 48.0%)	135.3	7-19 (-7.35, 26.9%)	season = 2008
18	6-10-1 (-5.41, 37.5%)	2.3	11-6-0 (4.03, 64.7%)	139.9	6-12 (-6.28, 33.3%)	season = 2007
15	4-11-0 (-2.80, 26.7%)	1.1	5-10-0 (-0.23, 33.3%)	138.3	5-10 (-3.93, 33.3%)	season = 2006

Showing 1 to 10 of 10 entries

 

[Biz]

OPPOSE away team off a double digit win as a home dog. 67-34-2 (on South Carolina)

A and p:HDW and p:margin>=10

This?

 

[Biz]

Just saw prev post

 

[indiana]

R/T..........thank you, always appreciate your efforts...........BOL with tonight's action...........indy

 

[rolltide]

UNDER Missouri State after good defensive game. (MSU/ORROB under 146)


UNDER SoDakState after good defensive game. (SDSU/TTECH under 143)


play on non-conf dog<16 off away/neutral win with 2 or more away games coming 191-132-9 (Montana St +13.5)


OPPOSE fav after great assist differential even after allowing 50+ FG attempts, total <=140. 69-22-2 (Southern Utah +19.5)

 

[amarp21]

good luck tide

I like s Dakota +3.5