2015 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

:howdy: Well........., it’s upon us once again, .........boys and girls, the wonderful time of year that we like to call “ Triple Crown “ time....................... beginning with the 2015 Kentucky Derby being run this Saturday.


As always, please remember that the numbers and statistics and such that I post in this thread are just some of the items that I personally use to help narrow this monster of a field down, trying to make some wise decisions in capping this race....................a friend once told me “ sometimes the numbers work in your favor and sometimes the numbers work against you”.......I’m still trying to figure that out...........

Hopefully , we can all help each other with everyone’s own strategy and opinions. Because that is what it is all about.............learning some new things, and helping each other...........


........................So let’s begin......................

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: First I always like to note how many Graded Races each of the possible Derby starters have run, and also how many have run the 1 mile & 1/8 distance.

This list may have some horses which will not be running, and may occlude some which are running.................so these lists are not all inclusive and probably need to be updated after the Post Positions are drawn...................but at least it’s a start to try and get a clearer picture of this year’s Derby.

..........................................# G Races.........# 1/8 Races
International Star......................5........................1.
Dortmund................................4........................1
Carpe Diem..............................4........................1
American Pharoah.....................4........................1
Frosted...................................4........................2
Mubtaahij..........................................................2 ( at 1- 3/16)
Materiality................................1........................1
El Kabeir..................................7........................1
Upstart...................................5........................1
Far Right.................................4........................1
It’s A Knockout.......................2........................1
Firing Line...............................3........................1
Danzig Moon...........................2........................1
War Story...............................3........................1
Tencendur...............................3........................1
Stanford................................2.........................2
Mr Z......................................9.........................2
Ocho Ocho Ocho.....................3........................1
Bolo......................................2.........................1
Made From Lucky....................2.........................1
Keen Ice................................5.........................1
Frammento............................3.........................1
Bold Conquest.......................5..........................1

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2:.........Here are the best times that each of these horses have run at the 1/8 mile distance.................remember these numbers may mean nothing, as one has to consider the weather, the track, the track condition, the jockey, the weight carried etc.....and all of the other factors involved...............but again something I just like to see on my end........................

................................................time 1 1/8 race
Firing Line...................................1.47.2
American Pharoah........................1.48.2
Dortmund...................................1.48.3
Carpe Diem.................................1.49.3
Mr Z...........................................1.50
Bolo...........................................1.50
Far Right....................................1.50
Frosted......................................1.50.1
Bold Conquest............................1.50.1
Made From Lucky.........................1.50.1
Stanford.....................................1.50.1
Danzig Moon...............................1.50.1
International Star.........................1.50.3
Ocho Ocho Ocho..........................1.50.3
Tencendur...................................1.50.3
Frammento.................................1.51
El Kabeir.....................................1.51.1
War Story...................................1.51.2
Keen Ice.....................................1.52
Mareiality.....................................1.52.1
Upstart.......................................1.52.3
It’s A Knockout............................1.56.1

 

[elevenblack301]

:hammerit Here is the Speed ratings for the possible entries............................

...................................Highest Speed
Frosted................................107
Dortmund............................106
Upstart................................106
Materiality............................105
Tencendur............................105
Ocho Ocho Ocho..................104
American Pharoah................103
Bolo...................................102
Carpe Diem.........................102
El Kabeir.............................101
Mr Z..................................100
Stanford.............................99
International Star.................99
Danzig Moon.......................99
Firing Line...........................97
Frammento.........................97
Made From Lucky................96
War Story..........................96
Far Right............................96
Keen Ice............................94
It’s a Knockout...................92
Bold Conquest....................91

........................................Highest Speed Average
Dortmund...............................103
Upstart..................................101
Materiality...............................100.3
American Pharoah...................100
Bolo......................................100
Firing Line...............................99.3
Frosted..................................98
Carpe Diem.............................97
International Star....................96.6
El Kabeir.................................96.6
Stanford.................................96
Tencendur...............................95.3
War Story..............................93.6
Ocho Ocho Ocho.....................93.3
Far Right................................92.6
Made From Lucky....................92.6
Keen Ice................................92.6
It’s a Knockout......................91.6
Danzig Moon.........................90.6
Bold Conquest.......................89.3
Frammento............................88.6
Mr Z......................................86.6

 

[elevenblack301]

And here is the something I really like to consider when looking at the Derby, the Late Pace Figures....................something that will hopefully show who may be passing all of those tired horses down the stretch with the added furlong in the Derby.....

.........................................Highest LP
Made From Lucky....................114
Upstart..................................110
Carpe Diem............................109
American Pharoah..................109
Mr Z.....................................109
International Star...................107
Keen Ice...............................104
Bolo.....................................104
Danzig Moon.........................104
Dortmund.............................104
Frammento...........................102
Bold Conquest......................101
Frosted................................101
Materiality.............................100
War Story..............................99
Stanford................................98
Far Right................................98
Firing Line...............................97
Tencendur...............................95
El Kabeir.................................95
Ocho Ocho Ocho.....................93
It’s A Knockout.......................92

........................................Highest LP Average
American Pharoah......................104
Danzig Moon.............................100.6
International Star.......................100
Frosted.....................................98.6
Keen Ice....................................97
Dortmund.................................95.6
Firing Line..................................95
Frammento................................94.6
Materiality..................................94.6
Far Right...................................93.6
Bold Conquest...........................93.6
War Story..................................93.6
Made From Lucky.........................93
Stanford.....................................92.6
Tencendur...................................92.3
Upstart........................................92
El Kabeir.....................................91.6
Carpe Diem.................................91
Bolo............................................91
Ocho Ocho Ocho.........................87.6
Mr Z...........................................80
It’s a Knockout...........................78.3

......Interesting to see Pharoah at the top of this list...................very interesting indeed..........

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: And now let’s take a look at the E1 and E2 numbers.............

..............................................E1 Highest Average
Bolo...............................................101.3
Dortmund.......................................99.3
It’s a Knockout...............................96.3

Mr Z...............................................95
Materiality.......................................94.3
Ocho Ocho Ocho.............................94
Upstart..........................................93.3
Carpe Diem.....................................93
Firing Line.......................................92.6
Frosted..........................................90.3
El Kabeir..........................................90
Stanford........................................89.6
American Pharoah............................89
Tencendur.......................................87.3
Danzig Moon...................................86.3
War Story.......................................86.3
International Star.............................85.3
Made From Lucky.............................85
Far Right.........................................83
Bold Conquest................................81.6
Keen Ice.........................................79.6
Frammento....................................72.6

.................................................E2 Highest Average
Upstart.........................................106
Bolo.............................................105.6
Dortmund....................................105.6
Frosted.......................................104
It’s a Knockout.............................103.3
Materiality....................................102.6
Firing Line....................................100.3
Carpe Diem..................................100.3
El Kabeir.......................................98.6
Mr Z............................................97.6
Ocho Ocho Ocho...........................97
Stanford......................................96.6
Tencendur.....................................96.6
American Pharoah.........................91.3
International Star..........................90.6
War Story....................................90.3
Made From Lucky..........................90
Far Right......................................89.3
Danzig Moon.................................89
Keen Ice......................................86.6
Bold Conquest.............................84
Frammento..................................82.6

 

[elevenblack301]

hno: And of course, those who like to look at the Beyer Figures........................I know some individuals who rely heavily on these numbers...................

.........................................Highest Beyer
Materiality..............................110
Upstart.................................108
Dortmund.............................106
American Pharoah..................105
Firing Line.............................104
Frosted................................103
Bolo.....................................101
Tencendur.............................100
Stanford................................98
International Star....................98
Carpe Diem............................98
El Kabeir................................95
Far Right...............................92
War Story..............................91
Mr Z......................................91
Ocho Ocho Ocho.....................90
Danzig Moon..........................90
Made From Lucky...................90
Bold Conquest.......................90
Keen Ice................................88
It’s a Knockout......................88
Frammento............................85

...................................................Highest Average Beyers
Dortmund......................................104.6
American Pharoah...........................102
Upstart..........................................102
Materiality.......................................99.6
Firing Line.......................................97.3
Carpe Diem.....................................95.3
Bolo...............................................94.6
Frosted..........................................94.3
International Star............................93.6
Stanford.........................................93.6
El Kabeir..........................................91.6
Far Right.........................................90.6
Tencendur.......................................90.3
War Story.......................................89.3
Mr Z...............................................88.3
Made From Lucky.............................88
Keen Ice..........................................87.3
Bold Conquest.................................86.6
Danzig Moon....................................84.3
Ocho Ocho Ocho..............................84
It’s a Knockout................................82
Frammento......................................80

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: As of today's date ...................

.......The Brisnet Prime Power Ratings

156.1 Dortmund
154.5 Upstart
154.4 American Pharoah
152.7 Carpe Diem
150.2 Firing Line
149.7 Materiality
149.4 Frosted
148.5 El Kabeir
144.3 Bolo
144.2 Tencendur
142.3 Metaboss
142.0 Itsaknockout
141.9 Ocho Ocho Ocho
141.0 International Star
140.2 War Story
140.0 Mr. Z
139.4 Stanford
139.3 Toasting Master
138.9 Firespike
138.8 Far Right
138.7 Danzig Moon
136.1 Madefromlucky
134.2 Bold Conquest
134.1 Keen Ice
132.8 Frammento
....NA Mubtaahij



......So, just how good is Prime Power? Take a gander at these results: based on a lengthy study of tens of thousands of races, Prime Power hits 31% top winners! That's sounds great, but when the study is broken down further and we focus strictly on dirt races, the results get even more interesting:

Top Prime Power horses by three full points (3.0+) or better score 39% of the time!

Top Prime Power horses by six full points (6.0+) or better score 46% of the time!

Top Prime Power horses by ten full points (10.0+) or better score 55% of the time!

 

[elevenblack301]

hno: This handicapper/journalist, Mr. Jon White , developed his Derby Strike system many years ago, and is normally spot on when trying to wean the field down to just selecting who has the best chance of winning the Derby..................Most of the previous winners , have had 0 or only 1 strike............and with that being said , here are this year’s field broken down.........


These 2015 Kentucky Derby candidates have zero strikes: Dortmund, El Kabeir, International Star, Mubtaahij and Upstart.

In addition to American Pharoah, these candidates for this year’s Run for the Roses have one strike: Carpe Diem (Category 6). Far Right (Category 3) and Frosted (Catgegory 4).

These Kentucky Derby candidates each have two strikes: Firing Line (Categories 4 and 6), Materiality (Categories 6 and 8), Ocho Ocho Ocho (Categories 4 and 6), One Lucky Dane (Categories 1 and 2), Tencendur (Categories 2 and 6) and War Story (Categories 2 and 6).


These Kentucky Derby candidates each have three strikes: Bolo (Categories 2, 4 and 6), Danzig Moon (Categories 2, 3 and 6), Itsaknockout (Categories 3, 5 and 6), Mr. Z (Cargeries 2, 4 and 7) and Stanford (2, 4 and 6).




Well, that's a lot to chew on, to get things started....................will talk to you soon as we get closer to Derby Day.....................

Be well all......................have a great week..............

 

[tanner12oz]

:think2:.........Here are the best times that each of these horses have run at the 1/8 mile distance.................remember these numbers may mean nothing, as one has to consider the weather, the track, the track condition, the jockey, the weight carried etc.....and all of the other factors involved...............but again something I just like to see on my end........................

................................................time 1 1/8 race
Firing Line...................................1.47.2
American Pharoah........................1.48.2
Dortmund...................................1.48.3
Carpe Diem.................................1.49.3
Mr Z...........................................1.50
Bolo...........................................1.50
Far Right....................................1.50
Frosted......................................1.50.1
Bold Conquest............................1.50.1
Made From Lucky.........................1.50.1
Stanford.....................................1.50.1
Danzig Moon...............................1.50.1
International Star.........................1.50.3
Ocho Ocho Ocho..........................1.50.3
Tencendur...................................1.50.3
Frammento.................................1.51
El Kabeir.....................................1.51.1
War Story...................................1.51.2
Keen Ice.....................................1.52
Mareiality.....................................1.52.1
Upstart.......................................1.52.3
It’s A Knockout............................1.56.1

as in every other year you post this..raw times mean nothing since every track is different, every day is different, pace affects times so on and so forth. The above info is as relevant as what color underwear the jockey will be wearing may 2.

 

[elevenblack301]

Let's look at those contenders which have run at Churchill Downs...........

International Star...............1.........0-0-0
Dortmund.........................1..........1-0-0
E Kabeir............................1.........1-0-0
Far Right...........................3.........1-1-1
Danzig Moon......................1.........0-1-0
War Story..........................1.........1-0-0
Mr Z..................................2........1-0-0
Keen Ice............................1.........1-0-0
Frammento........................1..........0-0-0
Bold Conquest....................1..........0-1-0


And who likes the slop...........

American Pharoah................1...........1-0-0
Frosted...............................1...........0-1-0
Materiality...........................1...........1-0-0
El Kabeir.............................4...........2-1-0
Upstart................................1..........0-1-0
Far Right.............................1...........1-0-0
Danzig Moon.......................1............0-0-0
Tencendur...........................3...........1-0-1
Mr Z...................................1............0-0-1
Made From Lucky.................1...........0-1-0
Bold Conquest......................2..........0-0-1


Be well all..................

 

[elevenblack301]

face)(*^% A few days before the posts are drawn, I always like to make some comments , for my own personal use, on each possible entry and then see if anything changes as we get closer to the big day...........so here we go.................in no particular order

Dortmund - what else can be said about this son of Big Brown......he’s a .big horse with a massive stride...........and if he gets into gear without have to check up ( tough with 20 horses )...........he should end up in front again.............but I believe traffic is going to bother him

Carpe Diem - another top notch colt...................with Johnny V in the saddle.............think he is set up for a big run ...............and the Derby pace should be to his liking

American Pharoah - he has to be considered among the top contenders, but for one reason or another I do not think he is the mortal lock that most people think..............

International Star - I really like his chances...............one of the few horses here that has improved in each of the last 4 races, in his Beyers, his Speed, and last but not least his Late Pace numbers..........getting better every time and it is obvious that going thru traffic does not bother him

Frosted - isn’t it about time that a Grey gets to the winner’s circle again...............been doing very well since some minor throat surgery and opening up his blinkers to expand his field of vision............I think , just like Star above, he has a great chance to finish in the money and maybe take the top prize

Mubtaahij - another Dubai horse coming to the derby......................tough to read into these horses, but watching his race replays, he may surprise....................but I think the travel, the weight loss, the quarantine etc will wear on him...........will see how he looks this week

Materiality - never raced as a 2 year old.................only with 3 lifetime starts..............never lost though............I still have to think about him more, but I think he left his best in Florida

El Kabeir - maybe he will be the Grey crossing the finish line first..................and now has the Borel factor, so he will be bet down....................he is one tough fighter and always seem to get a piece of the money

Upstart - at first I didn’t like him much, but he is starting to gain my favor................always in the money....................like El Kabeir, a definite fighter

Far Right - one of the deep closers in this race, and if he has some gas left in his tank , as I believe he has as Mike Smith wasn’t running down Pharaoh in Arkansas..............he is going to be passing a bunch of horses down the stretch

Firing Line - gave Dortmund all he can handle in 2 races...............think he will be out front, setting the pace and may try to steal this race, but will exhaust himself on the far turn

Danzig Moon - like Far Right, here is another closer who I think, if positioned well, may have a great chance to hit the board

War Story - has always played second fiddle to International Star..............and think he will be doing the same in this race

Tencendur - think he left his best race at the Wood..................don’t see him doing much here as there is too much talent above him

It’s A Knockout - not much going for him, in my opinion

Stanford - think he will be a mid pack finisher at best................don’t see much here

Mr. Z - I think he races every other week................................when is he going to tire, well how about on May 2nd

Ocho Ocho Ocho - I liked him at the beginning of this year, and there still is something that intrigues me about him.....................think he may have a big race waiting ..............but will it be this Saturday

Bolo - we all know , that this colt is or will be much better on grass.............so I am a little lost at how he will do with this monster of a race..........

Made from Lucky - he will be a closer, but I believe there are better choices for a closer in this race

Keen Ice - he can probably run all day long, so distance not a factor, but he was always behind International Star and War Story in the LA races................don’t believe he can catch them here

Frammento - hoping he gets in the mix.....................my favorite closer in this field and will be running like a runaway freight train in the end

Bold Conquest - a closer who is slightly improving over his last 3 races...............has to step up to bring the bacon home here though



Be well all....................we are getting closer.............

 

[Kaboom]

face)(*^% A few days before the posts are drawn, I always like to make some comments , for my own personal use, on each possible entry and then see if anything changes as we get closer to the big day...........so here we go.................in no particular order

Dortmund - what else can be said about this son of Big Brown......he’s a .big horse with a massive stride...........and if he gets into gear without have to check up ( tough with 20 horses )...........he should end up in front again.............but I believe traffic is going to bother him

Carpe Diem - another top notch colt...................with Johnny V in the saddle.............think he is set up for a big run ...............and the Derby pace should be to his liking

American Pharoah - he has to be considered among the top contenders, but for one reason or another I do not think he is the mortal lock that most people think..............

International Star - I really like his chances...............one of the few horses here that has improved in each of the last 4 races, in his Beyers, his Speed, and last but not least his Late Pace numbers..........getting better every time and it is obvious that going thru traffic does not bother him

Frosted - isn’t it about time that a Grey gets to the winner’s circle again...............been doing very well since some minor throat surgery and opening up his blinkers to expand his field of vision............I think , just like Star above, he has a great chance to finish in the money and maybe take the top prize

Mubtaahij - another Dubai horse coming to the derby......................tough to read into these horses, but watching his race replays, he may surprise....................but I think the travel, the weight loss, the quarantine etc will wear on him...........will see how he looks this week

Materiality - never raced as a 2 year old.................only with 3 lifetime starts..............never lost though............I still have to think about him more, but I think he left his best in Florida

El Kabeir - maybe he will be the Grey crossing the finish line first..................and now has the Borel factor, so he will be bet down....................he is one tough fighter and always seem to get a piece of the money

Upstart - at first I didn’t like him much, but he is starting to gain my favor................always in the money....................like El Kabeir, a definite fighter

Far Right - one of the deep closers in this race, and if he has some gas left in his tank , as I believe he has as Mike Smith wasn’t running down Pharaoh in Arkansas..............he is going to be passing a bunch of horses down the stretch

Firing Line - gave Dortmund all he can handle in 2 races...............think he will be out front, setting the pace and may try to steal this race, but will exhaust himself on the far turn

Danzig Moon - like Far Right, here is another closer who I think, if positioned well, may have a great chance to hit the board

War Story - has always played second fiddle to International Star..............and think he will be doing the same in this race

Tencendur - think he left his best race at the Wood..................don’t see him doing much here as there is too much talent above him

It’s A Knockout - not much going for him, in my opinion

Stanford - think he will be a mid pack finisher at best................don’t see much here

Mr. Z - I think he races every other week................................when is he going to tire, well how about on May 2nd

Ocho Ocho Ocho - I liked him at the beginning of this year, and there still is something that intrigues me about him.....................think he may have a big race waiting ..............but will it be this Saturday

Bolo - we all know , that this colt is or will be much better on grass.............so I am a little lost at how he will do with this monster of a race..........

Made from Lucky - he will be a closer, but I believe there are better choices for a closer in this race

Keen Ice - he can probably run all day long, so distance not a factor, but he was always behind International Star and War Story in the LA races................don’t believe he can catch them here

Frammento - hoping he gets in the mix.....................my favorite closer in this field and will be running like a runaway freight train in the end

Bold Conquest - a closer who is slightly improving over his last 3 races...............has to step up to bring the bacon home here though



Be well all....................we are getting closer.............

Looking at Pedigree's of the contenders ...not finished yet , but every Derby horse since 2000 has had at least 1 gene from the Horse Ajax ... Carpe Diem ... No Ajax found ... I know may think pedigree's are worthless when capping , but I'm a believer and definetly hold my own in the Big Races ...Triple Crown and Breeders .. Just passing it along ... fade or play ... no matter ... Appreciate your fine work , bro ..

 

[elevenblack301]

Kaboom,

Very nice tidbit.....................will definitely take a note on that fact ..............interesting...................keep me updated..........

Thanks....................be well my friend...........

 

[Kaboom]

Kaboom,

Very nice tidbit.....................will definitely take a note on that fact ..............interesting...................keep me updated..........

Thanks....................be well my friend...........

Will do bro .... Many similarities , pedigree wise ... Danzig Moon and Nehro ( 2nd Place finisher 2011 Derby ) ... I'll have him w/p/s... and in some gimmicks ... I know he's got 3 strikes with the Jon White angle ...

 

[elevenblack301]

Will do bro .... Many similarities , pedigree wise ... Danzig Moon and Nehro ( 2nd Place finisher 2011 Derby ) ... I'll have him w/p/s... and in some gimmicks ... I know he's got 3 strikes with the Jon White angle ...

Hey, that is great news.......................as I am really beginning to like his chances as a top bomber in my wagers........................especially if Frammento doesn't get in...........he has to improve off his preps...............but should be rolling down the stretch............

Thanks...................

 

[Kaboom]

Looking at Pedigree's of the contenders ...not finished yet , but every Derby horse since 2000 has had at least 1 gene from the Horse Ajax ... Carpe Diem ... No Ajax found ... I know may think pedigree's are worthless when capping , but I'm a believer and definetly hold my own in the Big Races ...Triple Crown and Breeders .. Just passing it along ... fade or play ... no matter ... Appreciate your fine work , bro ..

Adding .... No Ajax found in International Star ... bunch of people on that long shot ... keep you posted ..what else ..

 

[Don'tCountOnIt]

Looking at Pedigree's of the contenders ...not finished yet , but every Derby horse since 2000 has had at least 1 gene from the Horse Ajax ... Carpe Diem ... No Ajax found ... I know may think pedigree's are worthless when capping , but I'm a believer and definetly hold my own in the Big Races ...Triple Crown and Breeders .. Just passing it along ... fade or play ... no matter ... Appreciate your fine work , bro ..

Kaboom Can you elaborate on this please? Whats the significance? Did most or all past derby winners come from Ajax? Any insight is helpful.

Thanks to all who participate in this thread

 

[Kaboom]

Kaboom Can you elaborate on this please? Whats the significance? Did most or all past derby winners come from Ajax? Any insight is helpful.

Thanks to all who participate in this thread

Yes ... all derby winners since 2000 had at least 1 gene of the Ajax horse in the 9th Generation .. Many will laugh this off ... go ahead guys ... this kind of stuff has made me money in the past , if that was lucky so be it . Keep the smart comments to yourself . I won't bother to post stuff like it , again .. Good luck !!

 

[elevenblack301]

@) Here is a great site that I always like to check out when trying to 'decode' these races............


http://www.chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm


Check it out....loaded with 'pedigree' information..........