Hey guys,
So, last week I shared my plays for the first time. Went 1-4 ATS -3.4 Units.
Basically, I capped games based off of all the bs I'm fed by the media
day in and day out.
However, i'm a numbers guy and at heart and decided that I needed to
create my own custom rankings based on a few important factors I don't
see many people using.
To make a long story short, these rankings seem to find lines that are
not set correctly and provide value.
The Theory/System
The system is simple. I apply the two teams custom rankings.
Then add 3.0 points for Home field advantage (considering 3.5)
and factor in the line.
Qualifying play is anything with a difference of 7.0 or greater.
I've also attached a simple spreadsheet that shows the qualifying plays
from last week and their results. (11-2-1)*
I will also include a spreadsheet later this week that will show the qualifying plays
for this week.
The Reason/Benefit
After seeing the promising results I figured I would share these projections with you guys here.
I'm pretty excited about what i've seen so far, but the continual success of this system is all
speculation at this point. The way I see it, if it pans out and continues to be successful then we
all get a chance to cash in on it.
If not, just another thread to be lost in the abyss
The Rankings
These rankings were based on pre-season factors as well as last year's
stats.
I will update these rankings after week 3 or week 4 and then update each
week thereafter.
Just hope to contribute to all the true grinders here.
I'll continue to update thread with current weeks plays.
*Justy been played.
Good Luck,
Conniseur
*Just to clarify, I am not tracking this as a record as it was not posted previous to games. I'm simply showing the results
had they been played/posted.
So, last week I shared my plays for the first time. Went 1-4 ATS -3.4 Units.
Basically, I capped games based off of all the bs I'm fed by the media
day in and day out.
However, i'm a numbers guy and at heart and decided that I needed to
create my own custom rankings based on a few important factors I don't
see many people using.
To make a long story short, these rankings seem to find lines that are
not set correctly and provide value.
The Theory/System
The system is simple. I apply the two teams custom rankings.
Then add 3.0 points for Home field advantage (considering 3.5)
and factor in the line.
Qualifying play is anything with a difference of 7.0 or greater.
I've also attached a simple spreadsheet that shows the qualifying plays
from last week and their results. (11-2-1)*
I will also include a spreadsheet later this week that will show the qualifying plays
for this week.
The Reason/Benefit
After seeing the promising results I figured I would share these projections with you guys here.
I'm pretty excited about what i've seen so far, but the continual success of this system is all
speculation at this point. The way I see it, if it pans out and continues to be successful then we
all get a chance to cash in on it.
If not, just another thread to be lost in the abyss
The Rankings
These rankings were based on pre-season factors as well as last year's
stats.
I will update these rankings after week 3 or week 4 and then update each
week thereafter.
| Team | |
| Texas Christian Horned Frogs | 58.5 |
| Oregon Ducks | 58.3 |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 56.9 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 56.0 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 55.9 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 53.3 |
| Baylor Bears | 52.5 |
| Mississippi Rebels | 51.7 |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 50.2 |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 48.7 |
| Auburn Tigers | 48.6 |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 48.3 |
| Clemson Tigers | 46.2 |
| Louisiana State Fighting Tigers | 45.8 |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 45.6 |
| Kansas State Wildcats | 45.3 |
| Florida State Seminoles | 44.9 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd | 44.5 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 43.4 |
| Southern California Trojans | 43.3 |
| Stanford Cardinal | 43.3 |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers | 43.2 |
| Boise State Broncos | 43.1 |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 43.0 |
| Florida Gators | 42.9 |
| UCLA Bruins | 41.9 |
| Memphis Tigers | 41.7 |
| Miami Hurricanes | 41.7 |
| Texas A&M Aggies | 41.4 |
| Arizona State Sun Devils | 40.7 |
| Missouri Tigers | 40.7 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 40.6 |
| Tennessee Volunteers | 40.4 |
| Arizona Wildcats | 40.2 |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 39.9 |
| Utah Utes | 39.7 |
| West Virginia Mountaineers | 39.7 |
| Brigham Young Cougars | 39.2 |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 39.0 |
| Boston College Eagles | 38.9 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 38.2 |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 37.7 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 37.2 |
| South Carolina Gamecocks | 37.0 |
| Colorado State Rams | 36.9 |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 35.4 |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack | 35.1 |
| East Carolina Pirates | 34.7 |
| Washington Huskies | 34.6 |
| UCF Golden Knights | 34.3 |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 33.8 |
| Utah State Aggies | 33.8 |
| Houston Cougars | 33.5 |
| Air Force Falcons | 33.5 |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 33.0 |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 32.9 |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 32.8 |
| Navy Midshipmen | 32.7 |
| California Golden Bears | 32.5 |
| Temple Owls | 32.0 |
| Texas Longhorns | 31.3 |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 31.3 |
| Maryland Terrapins | 31.2 |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 30.8 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 30.5 |
| Michigan Wolverines | 30.3 |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 30.2 |
| Western Michigan Broncos | 29.9 |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 29.7 |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys | 29.2 |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 28.9 |
| Washington State Cougars | 28.6 |
| Toledo Rockets | 28.6 |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 28.5 |
| Oregon State Beavers | 27.6 |
| Syracuse Orangemen | 27.5 |
| UAB Blazers | 27.2 |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 26.2 |
| Arkansas State Indians | 26.0 |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 25.0 |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 25.0 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 24.5 |
| UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 24.4 |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 24.2 |
| Colorado Buffaloes | 23.7 |
| Florida Intl Golden Panthers | 23.5 |
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 23.4 |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 23.3 |
| Texas State Bobcats | 22.7 |
| Ball State Cardinals | 22.6 |
| Indiana Fightin Hoosiers | 22.5 |
| Buffalo Bulls | 21.9 |
| Rice Owls | 21.6 |
| Akron Zips | 21.3 |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 21.2 |
| Hawaii Warriors | 20.7 |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 19.9 |
| Bowling Green Falcons | 19.7 |
| San Jose State Spartans | 19.0 |
| Texas El Paso Miners | 18.8 |
| South Florida Bulls | 18.6 |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 18.6 |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers | 18.4 |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 18.4 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 18.3 |
| Tulane Green Wave | 18.1 |
| Ohio Bobcats | 17.9 |
| New Mexico Lobos | 17.9 |
| Army Black Knights | 17.2 |
| Old Dominion Big Blue | 16.9 |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 16.2 |
| North Texas Eagles | 15.9 |
| Miami of Ohio Redskins | 15.1 |
| Massachusetts Minutemen | 15.0 |
| UL Monroe Indians | 13.6 |
| Connecticut Huskies | 13.5 |
| Florida Atlantic Owls | 13.1 |
| Texas San Antonio Roadrunners | 12.7 |
| UNLV Rebels | 12.3 |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricanes | 11.4 |
| Kent Golden Flashes | 11.2 |
| Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles | 9.3 |
| Troy Trojans | 5.6 |
| Idaho Vandals | 5.5 |
| New Mexico State Aggies | 3.5 |
| Georgia State Panthers | 1.7 |
| Eastern Michigan Hurons | -0.5 |
| Southern Methodist Mustangs | -0.5 |
Just hope to contribute to all the true grinders here.
I'll continue to update thread with current weeks plays.
*Justy been played.
Good Luck,
Conniseur
*Just to clarify, I am not tracking this as a record as it was not posted previous to games. I'm simply showing the results
had they been played/posted.
