2015 Bowl Stats & Info

[Acebb]

Bowl notes from last year (and beyond):

-- Last year, bowl underdogs finished 21-17 SU and 24-14 ATS last year (1 PK game). Simply putting $100 on every dog on the ML would have yielded very, very nice results.

Power 5 Conference bowl records last year:
SEC finished 7-5 SU/ATS. Note that the SEC East went 5-0 SU/ATS & SEC West (every team went to a bowl) went 2-5 SU/ATS.
The Big 12 finished 2-5 SU/ATS.
The ACC finished 4-7 SU & 5-6 ATS
The Pac 12 finished 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS
The Big 10 finished 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS

--Over the past 2 bowl seasons the line came in to play only 7 times in 74 games (9%). If you like the dog, take the money line.

---Last year, some of the biggest line moves favorites: Pitt, Washington, LSU, and Oklahoma (all games moved at least 2 points) lost outright. The people moving the lines (and those following) got killed.

--- The Big 12 teams are 32-46 ATS (41%) in bowls and continued a long running negative ROI last year.

--The only conference worse than the BIG 12 in Bowl ROI is (no surprise) the Mac. Typical under-performer MAC Bowl teams are ATS 14-28 (33% ATS)

-The best positive ROI conference team is the SEC 53-39 ATS (57%). The PAC 12 is barely + at 35-32 ATS (52%)

-Bowl teams with interim coaches are 12-12 ATS over the past 3 years, no real angle here.

-There also isn't any strong general angle on DD bowl underdogs/favorites

 

[Acebb]

TRAVEL DISTANCE
For Bowl Matchups, the (mile) distance each team must travel to get there:

Arizona: 448 vs New Mexico: 0
BYU: 377 vs Utah :420
Ohio: 704 vs Appalachian St: 460
San Jose St: 2,848 vs Georgia St: 438
Arkansas St: 464 vs Louisiana Tech: 314
WKU: 972 vs USF :280
Akron: 2,049 vs Utah St:1,773
Toledo: 1,288 vs Temple: 1,154
Boise St: 937 vs Northern Illinois: 2,018
Georgia Southern: 463 vs Bowling Green: 898
Middle Tenn: 919 vs W Michigan: 1,280
Cincinnati.: 4,436 vs San Diego St: 2,611
Connecticut: 1,136 vs Marshall: 737
Miami, Fl 1,640 vs Washington St 2,485
Southern Mis: .449 vs Washington 1,682
Indiana: 803 vs Duke 493
Tulsa: 339 vs Virginia Tech: 942
Nebraska: 1,647 vs UCLA: 345
Pittsburgh: 268 vs Navy: 0
Cent Michigan 155 vs Minnesota: 693
Air Force.: 700 vs California: 1,701
Baylor: 1,121 vs North Carolina: 623
Nevada: 806 vs Colorado St.: 957
Texas Tech: 521 vs LSU: 271
Memphis: 237 vs Auburn:109
NC State: 168 vs Mississippi St: 532
Louisville: 176 vs Texas A&M: 761
Wisconsin: 2,035 vs USC: 120
Houston.: 793 vs Florida St: 261
Michigan St: 1137 vs Alabama: 607
Oklahoma: 1,501 vs Clemson: 748
Tennessee: 669 vs Northwestern: 1,192
Florida:112 vs Michigan: 1,147
Notre Dame: 1,865 vs Ohio St: 1,918
Iowa: 1,788 vs Stanford: 359
Mississippi: 1,107 vs Oklahoma St: 715
Penn St: 917 vs Georgia: 338
Kansas St: 570 vs Arkansas: 317
TCU: 268 vs Oregon: 2,210
West Virginia: 2,078 vs Arizona St: 10

 

[Acebb]

Items to consider for this year:

--Unranked teams are 41-28 ATS vs ranked teams over the last 69 bowl games with such a matchup. This went 2-3 ATS last season. This season’s unranked teams to consider are: BYU, Toledo, Pitt, Texas Tech, Wisconsin

-Motivation? This bowl season has two return teams, with USC (vs. Wisconsin) playing in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego for the second straight season and Utah (vs. BYU) heading back to the same spot for the Las Vegas Bowl.

-- If you want to consider fading teams limping into the bowl season, bowl teams coming off 2 losses this year are:
Northern Illinois, Air Force, Baylor, Nevada, Florida, Oklahoma State, Penn State (0-3 ATS run)

Other notables:
-Utah State comes in having lost 3 of 4 SU and on a 0-4 ATS run.
-Utah lost last 3 ATS
-Boise ST: ended on 2-4 ATS run
-NC State: ended on 0-3 ATS run
-OK State: ended on 0-3 ATS run

--Hotter ATS teams:
-Ohio 3 ATS Wins to end the year
-GA State: 4 ATS wins to end the year, covered 6 of last 7
-Arkansas St: 4 ATS wins to end year
-So Florida: Covered 7 of last 8
-Akron: covered last 4 ATS
-Bowling Green: 7-1 ATS run
-Mid Tennessee St: ended on 4-0 ATS run
-SD State: 7-1-1 ATS run
-Wash St: 8-1 ATS run
-Air Force: 6-1 ATS run
-Nevada: 4-0-1 ATS run
-Florida State: 5-0 ATS run
-Oklahoma: 6-1 ATS run
-Oregon: 5-1 ATS run

 

[Acebb]

Notable ATS Bowl Teams ---
60% + ATS are:
BYU (8-4)
OHIO (8-4)
ARKANSAS STATE (8-4)
WKU (8-5)
GEORGIA STATE (8-3-1)
USF (10-2)
TOLEDO (8-3)
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (8-4)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (7-4-1)
MIAMI (FL) (8-3-1)
TEMPLE (9-4)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (9-4)
BOWLING GREEN (9-3-1)
WASHINGTON STATE (9-3)
SOUTHERN MISS (10-3)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (9-3)
AIR FORCE (8-4-1)
NAVY (8-3)
NEVADA (8-4)
NORTH CAROLINA (8-5)
HOUSTON (8-5)
OKLAHOMA (9-3)
FLORIDA (8-4-1)
NOTRE DAME (8-4)
IOWA (8-5)
FLORIDA STATE (8-4)
NORTHWESTERN (8-4)
STANFORD (9-4)
MISSISSIPPI (8-4)
ARKANSAS (7-4-1)


ATS Money Burners, Sub .500 ATS Bowl Teams
ARIZONA STATE (5-7)
GEORGIA (4-7)
OKLAHOMA STATE (5-6-1)
PENN STATE (4-8)
WEST VIRGINIA (5-7)
OHIO STATE (5-7)
MICHIGAN STATE (5-8)
LSU (4-6-1)
AUBURN (2-10)
TEXAS A&M (4-7-1)
USC (6-7)
BAYLOR (5-7)
UCLA (5-7)
Cal (5-7)
NEBRASKA (4-7-1)
CONNECTICUT (5-7)
UTAH (5-7)
ARIZONA (5-7)

 

[Acebb]

Coaches with the best bowl-game ATS records, minimum five games

1. Urban Meyer, Ohio State: 9-2

t-2. Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M: 4-1

t-2. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern: 4-1

4. Kyle Whittingham, Utah: 6-2

5. David Cutcliffe, Duke: 6-2

Coaches with the worst bowl-game ATS record, minimum five games:

1. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona: 2-7

t-2. Art Briles, Baylor: 3-7

t-2. Mike Leach, Washington State: 3-7

4. Bill Snyder, Kansas State: 5-11

t-5. Bobby Petrino, Louisville: 2-6

t-6. Brian Kelly, Notre Dame: 2-6

 

[Acebb]

-- Last year, bowl underdogs finished 21-17 SU and 24-14 ATS last year (1 PK game). Simply putting $100 on every dog on the ML would have yielded very, very nice results.

Note: Underdogs as a whole have gone 174-159 ATS over the past 10 bowl seasons.

More tomorrow...

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Good information Ace, thanks man!

 

[Twisted]

Good stuff
:toast:

 

[Let'sMakeSomeMoney]

Anyone have a list of the interim coaches for bowl teams? It seems like there are quite a few this year.

 

[Let'sMakeSomeMoney]

Here is the list I have for coaching changes affecting bowl games:

Bowling Green
BYU (Mendenhall to coach last game?)
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Memphis
Miami
Toledo
VT (Beamer to coach last game)

Am I missing any?

 

[jimmmy4]

Damn good info.

Very interesting stat:
--Over the past 2 bowl seasons the line came in to play only 7 times in 74 games (9%). If you like the dog, take the money line.

 

[Acebb]

Since 2009 teams with interim coaches are 18-14 SU in bowl games.

I haven't looked since I don't really see an angle here...

 

[Acebb]

2015 Bowl Teams with the (noticeable) schedule advantage – teams with the schedule advantage are 32-19 SU and 27-24 ATS in the last 2 bowl seasons. This was not a good angle last year. I’m going to break them down by category to see if there is a pattern.

Large Schedule Adv
WASHINGTON (Largest differential of any bowl matchup)
CALIFORNIA (very large, 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] biggest of bowls)
MINNESOTA
AUBURN
Florida St
CONNECTICUT

Medium Schedule Adv:
UTAH
SAN JOSE ST
UTAH ST
BOWLING GREEN
WESTERN MICH
UCLA
PITTSBURGH
OKLAHOMA
USC
STANFORD

Slight Schedule Adv:
ARIZONA
CINCINNATI
VIRGINIA TECH
MISSISSIPPI ST
NOTRE DAME
MISSISSIPPI

 

[Acebb]

Some bowl specific notable trends (since 2009 unless otherwise noted)

Belk Bowl - FAV: 5-1 SU/ATS [2015 FAV: Miss State]

Foster farm - FAV: 5-1 SU/ATS [2015 FAV: UCLA]

Alamo Bowl - FAV: 5-1 SU/ATS [LINE at PK]

Hawaii Bowl – FAV: 2-4 ATS [2015 DOG: SD State]

Heart of Dallas – FAV: 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS (since ’10) [2015 FAV: Washington]

Quicklane Bowl – FAV: 1-5 SU/ATS [2015 DOG: C. Michigan]

St Petersburg – FAV: 4-2 SU/ATS [2015 FAV: Marshall]

Orange Bowl – FAV: 2-4 SU/ATS [2015 DOG: CLEMSON]

Outback Bowl – FAV: 1-4-1 ATS [2015 DOG: Northwestern]

Military Bowl –FAV: 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS [2015 FAV: NAVY]

Citrus Bowl – FAV: 4-2 SU/ATS [2015 FAV: Michigan]

Cotton Bowl - FAV: 4-2 SU/ATS [2015 FAV: Alabama]

New ORLEANS Bowl – FAV: 2-4 SU/ATS [2015 DOG: Arkansas State] * Bowl dogs on 8 game-exact win streak are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS

Sun Bowl – FAV: 1-5 ATS [ 2015 DOG: Miami, FL]

Pinstripe Bowl FAV: 0-4 ATS (since ’11) [2015 DOG: DUKE]

Las Vegas Bowl -FAV: 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS [2015 FAV: UTAH]

Holiday Bowl - FAV: 2-4 ATS [2015 DOG: Wisconsin]

Independence Bowl – FAV: 4-2 SU/ATS [2015 FAV: VA TECH]

Music City - FAV: 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS [2015 FAV: L’ville (note A&M QB mess)]

Texas Bowl- FAV: 2-4 ATS [2015 DOG: Texas Tech]

 

[Acebb]

Good information Ace, thanks man!

Hope this helps, let's have a nice bowl season.

Good stuff
:toast:

Thanks, and cheers Twisted.

Damn good info.

Very interesting stat:
--Over the past 2 bowl seasons the line came in to play only 7 times in 74 games (9%). If you like the dog, take the money line.

Happy to help. Here is more:


Since 1984, teams entering bowls on at least a three-game losing streak are 27-15 ATS, 16-8 if their opponent is off a SU win. Penn State qualifies this year.

 

[Acebb]

2015 Bowl teams that outrush and have greater time of possession than their opponents:

GEORGIA SOUTHERN
WESTERN MICHIGAN
SAN DIEGO STATE
INDIANA
LSU
HOUSTON
NORTH CAROLINA STATE

^ These (non WAC/MW) bowl teams coming into their bowl games with + in those 2 categories (rushing & TOP) are on a 13-0 ATS run (and are 40-10 ATS) when playing Dec bowl teams with 7 wins -- thanks to posters Computer Group and Rolltide for discussing and uncovering this.

One other note: bowl dogs that out-rush a .sub 700 opponent are 110-27-1 ATS (41-6-1 ATS as dogs of 6 +). So that hits NC State again.
Considerations here would also be: New Mexico (out-rushes .500 AZ); Arkansas St (out-rushes 66% La Tech); Akron (out-rushes .500 Utah St); Northern Ill (out-rushes 66% Boise); Nevada (out-rushes 58% Co State); AIR FORCE (out-rushes 58% Cal).

 

[Acebb]

2015 Bowl teams that outrush and have greater time of possession than their opponents:

GEORGIA SOUTHERN
WESTERN MICHIGAN
SAN DIEGO STATE
INDIANA
LSU
HOUSTON
NORTH CAROLINA STATE

^ These bowl teams coming into their bowl games with + in those 2 categories (rushing & TOP) are on a 13-0 ATS run (and are 40-10 ATS) when playing (non WAC/MW) Dec bowl teams with 7 wins -- thanks to posters Computer Group and Rolltide for discussing and uncovering this.

Clarified the language.

 

[rolltide]

2015 Bowl teams that outrush and have greater time of possession than their opponents:

GEORGIA SOUTHERN
WESTERN MICHIGAN
SAN DIEGO STATE
INDIANA
LSU
HOUSTON
NORTH CAROLINA STATE

^ These (non WAC/MW) bowl teams coming into their bowl games with + in those 2 categories (rushing & TOP) are on a 13-0 ATS run (and are 40-10 ATS) when playing Dec bowl teams with at least 7 wins -- thanks to posters Computer Group and Rolltide for discussing and uncovering this.

7 or more wins

 

[Acebb]

7 or more wins

Thanks.

Question though. Cal has 7 wins and is non-WAC/MWC and AF has both rushing & TOP advantages. Why didn't they make your query?

 

[mudman]

Lots of good info. Thanx and GL