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2014 College Football Preview by Well-Seasoned
- Thread starter Well-Seasoned
- Start date
25 of My Really Good Projected Offenses with their QUARTERBACK returning),
Arizona State
Auburn
Baylor
BYU
California
Duke
East Carolina
Florida State
Georgia Southern
Houston
Indiana
UL-Lafayette
Marshall
Mississippi
Mississippi State
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Old Dominion
Oregon
Oregon State
Texas Tech
UCLA
Washington State
West Virginia
Western Kentucky
Arizona State
Auburn
Baylor
BYU
California
Duke
East Carolina
Florida State
Georgia Southern
Houston
Indiana
UL-Lafayette
Marshall
Mississippi
Mississippi State
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Old Dominion
Oregon
Oregon State
Texas Tech
UCLA
Washington State
West Virginia
Western Kentucky
Teams that won 4 or less games last year that won 7 games or more the previous 3 years (comments on each)
Florida Gators----------Florida should start the year 3-0 and then they get to play at Alabama, at Tennessee, and LSU after that.......The Gators do get a BYE before Tennessee so that helps as the Gators have won 9 Straight against them......Can they beat them 10 straight? That is asking a lot on the Road as the last time Tennessee beat Florida was in Ron Zook's final year there (Coincidence?).......The key for Florida again will be the offense as they brought the guy in from Duke plus they get Driskell back so watch them closely in their first 3 games as their first SEC Game is against Kentucky which will be a step up from the confidence building games such as Idaho and Eastern Michigan...
N.C.State------------The Wolfpack ended the year by losing 8 games in a row, but at least they have an excuse (1st year coach)....They bring 14 Starters back plus a transfer from Florida at QB while having a coach with a good rep so I expect N.C.State to improve and be bowl-bound this year.
Nevada-------------Their 1st year coach struggled replacing the legendary Chris Ault (the Pistol architect)....They bring back 10 players on Defense which is the good news...The bad news is this defense gave up 500YPG last year....They bring back Senior QB Fajardo at least and expect some high-scoring games from Nevada this year against similar competition...
TCU---------------They bring back 16 Starters plus a few years experience in the Big 12 now.....I expect this team to improve and be bowl-bound this year just like N.C.State as they have gone from 13-0 to 11-2 to 7-6 to 4-8 the last 3 years and Patterson is still a good coach.....This team will improve and go bowling....
Tulsa------------The Golden Hurricane bring back 10 players on Defense, but they will definitely need to improve....The offense is up in the air at this point so I want to see how they look against Tulane earlier in the year..
West Virginia---------They get to open up against Alabama here in the A-T-L and their schedule for the year is not doing them any favors as even their Home Games are against Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and TCU....The only possible conference game gimme is against Charlie Cheeseburger's crew...They simply need to get better on defense and while they have 13 starters returning the schedule is not doing this team any favors this year.......A bowl appearance would be a great coaching job....Otherwise, them boyz in Morgantown might hit the panic buttion...
Florida Gators----------Florida should start the year 3-0 and then they get to play at Alabama, at Tennessee, and LSU after that.......The Gators do get a BYE before Tennessee so that helps as the Gators have won 9 Straight against them......Can they beat them 10 straight? That is asking a lot on the Road as the last time Tennessee beat Florida was in Ron Zook's final year there (Coincidence?).......The key for Florida again will be the offense as they brought the guy in from Duke plus they get Driskell back so watch them closely in their first 3 games as their first SEC Game is against Kentucky which will be a step up from the confidence building games such as Idaho and Eastern Michigan...
N.C.State------------The Wolfpack ended the year by losing 8 games in a row, but at least they have an excuse (1st year coach)....They bring 14 Starters back plus a transfer from Florida at QB while having a coach with a good rep so I expect N.C.State to improve and be bowl-bound this year.
Nevada-------------Their 1st year coach struggled replacing the legendary Chris Ault (the Pistol architect)....They bring back 10 players on Defense which is the good news...The bad news is this defense gave up 500YPG last year....They bring back Senior QB Fajardo at least and expect some high-scoring games from Nevada this year against similar competition...
TCU---------------They bring back 16 Starters plus a few years experience in the Big 12 now.....I expect this team to improve and be bowl-bound this year just like N.C.State as they have gone from 13-0 to 11-2 to 7-6 to 4-8 the last 3 years and Patterson is still a good coach.....This team will improve and go bowling....
Tulsa------------The Golden Hurricane bring back 10 players on Defense, but they will definitely need to improve....The offense is up in the air at this point so I want to see how they look against Tulane earlier in the year..
West Virginia---------They get to open up against Alabama here in the A-T-L and their schedule for the year is not doing them any favors as even their Home Games are against Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and TCU....The only possible conference game gimme is against Charlie Cheeseburger's crew...They simply need to get better on defense and while they have 13 starters returning the schedule is not doing this team any favors this year.......A bowl appearance would be a great coaching job....Otherwise, them boyz in Morgantown might hit the panic buttion...
My Favorite Player in Each Conference (varieties of reasons)
American Athletic: QB Shane Carden (East Carolina)
ACC: QB Justin Thomas (Georgia Tech)
Big 12: WR Tyler Lockett (Kansas State)
Big 10: Safety Kurtis Drummond (Michigan State)
Conference-USA: QB Rakeem Cato (Marshall)
MAC: I don't have a favorite player
Mountain West: QB Chuckie Keeton (Utah State)
Pac-12: LB Myles Jack (UCLA)
SEC: RB Todd Gurley (Georgia)
Sun Belt: QB Terrance Broadway (UL-Lafayette)
American Athletic: QB Shane Carden (East Carolina)
ACC: QB Justin Thomas (Georgia Tech)
Big 12: WR Tyler Lockett (Kansas State)
Big 10: Safety Kurtis Drummond (Michigan State)
Conference-USA: QB Rakeem Cato (Marshall)
MAC: I don't have a favorite player
Mountain West: QB Chuckie Keeton (Utah State)
Pac-12: LB Myles Jack (UCLA)
SEC: RB Todd Gurley (Georgia)
Sun Belt: QB Terrance Broadway (UL-Lafayette)
The most talented conference is the SEC .............This is not a surprise............Amazingly, the entire conference makes my cut..........Now some will get defensive here, but depth-wise the SEC is the most talented conference........However, there are teams from other conferences with talent, but the SEC Wins the talent matchup through the whole conference and does it quite easy.
The Most Talented Team in Each Conference
SEC--------------Alabama
Pac-12----------Southern California
Big-12---------Oklahoma
Big-10---------Ohio State
ACC------------Florida State
Teams from each conference that get the most out of their talent which obviously means their coach knows how to coach
SEC--------------South Carolina
Pac-12-----------Stanford
Big-12----------Kansas State
Big-10----------Michigan State
ACC------------Virginia Tech
SEC--------------Alabama
Pac-12----------Southern California
Big-12---------Oklahoma
Big-10---------Ohio State
ACC------------Florida State
Teams from each conference that get the most out of their talent which obviously means their coach knows how to coach
SEC--------------South Carolina
Pac-12-----------Stanford
Big-12----------Kansas State
Big-10----------Michigan State
ACC------------Virginia Tech
From above list we have established 5 Coaches in the 5 Major Conferences who know how to coach and get the most out of their talent, here are the best situations for each although obviously there are several other factors to consider for each game as well
Bill Snyder is 19-5 ATS as a Conference Underdog since he came back to Kansas State in 2009.
Steve Spurrier is 12-4 ATS as a Conference Favorite Under 7
Mark Dantonio is 15-3 ATS as Road Chalk
Since 1990, Frank Beamer is 49-25 ATS with Revenge, including 24-8 ATS at Home, and 8-1 ATS as a Home Dog with Revenge
David Shaw is 11-2 ATS as a Favorite Under 6 or as an Underdog, he is 6-0 ATS as an Underdog
Bill Snyder is 19-5 ATS as a Conference Underdog since he came back to Kansas State in 2009.
Steve Spurrier is 12-4 ATS as a Conference Favorite Under 7
Mark Dantonio is 15-3 ATS as Road Chalk
Since 1990, Frank Beamer is 49-25 ATS with Revenge, including 24-8 ATS at Home, and 8-1 ATS as a Home Dog with Revenge
David Shaw is 11-2 ATS as a Favorite Under 6 or as an Underdog, he is 6-0 ATS as an Underdog
[Teams from Major 5 Conferences with Inferior Talent in their Conference and 11 or Less Starters Returning
Boston College-----------Lucky for them they play in the ACC and get a Florida QB transferring and their coach did well last year in his 1st year.
Georgia Tech------------Again, they play in the ACC so this really helps and they've been in a bowl game forever (one of the longest streaks in the nation) and Justin Thomas is the real deal as Paul Johnson goes back to his more normal offense compared to the one with Vad Lee last year...
Kansas State-------------This is nothing new for the legendary Bill Snyder so I don't expect a dropoff.......
Missouri------------------Gary Pinkel did a great job last year, but he will get a SEC Wake-Up Call this year as Missouri will now have a target on their back as well...The only thing going for them is they play in the SEC East instead of the SEC West....
Oklahoma State-------Their talent is decent, but they only return 8 starters........The Sooners in general own them and that is when Okie State had better teams....Oklahoma State has had Double-Digit wins 3 out of the last 4 years, but I would be shocked if Gundy did that this year and I expect them to dropoff some this year.
Vanderbilt--------------Back-to-Back 9 win seasons, but they lost their coach and I have them as the least talented team in the SEC.........Just like Oklahoma State I expect Vanderbilt to take a step backwards this year......Their last game of the year is against Tennessee who doesn't want to lose against Vandy 3 years in a row so expect a fired-up Vols team coming into town late November......This should happen after Dan Mullen and Mississippi State take care of them in Starkville the week before as Vandy is 0-5 since 1980 in Starkville (1-4 ATS)..Even the one ATS win they had there they lost by 20 points and were getting 21....The last matchup was in 2009 where Vandy managed to lose outright at Home despite being 8.5 point favorites.....So basically Vandy has had major issues with Mississippi State in the past whereas Ole Miss they play each year as rivals....
Wake Forest-------------Inferior talent with a 1st Year Coach which doesn't look good at this point....The only good news is they play in the ACC where teams can move up quicker than other conferences....
Wisconsin--------------You would think Wisconsin was a talented team in their conference, but this is not the case....They just have a style they stick to along with great coaching amd Gary Andersen did a great job last year.........Definitely a team that gets the most out of their players......
Boston College-----------Lucky for them they play in the ACC and get a Florida QB transferring and their coach did well last year in his 1st year.
Georgia Tech------------Again, they play in the ACC so this really helps and they've been in a bowl game forever (one of the longest streaks in the nation) and Justin Thomas is the real deal as Paul Johnson goes back to his more normal offense compared to the one with Vad Lee last year...
Kansas State-------------This is nothing new for the legendary Bill Snyder so I don't expect a dropoff.......
Missouri------------------Gary Pinkel did a great job last year, but he will get a SEC Wake-Up Call this year as Missouri will now have a target on their back as well...The only thing going for them is they play in the SEC East instead of the SEC West....
Oklahoma State-------Their talent is decent, but they only return 8 starters........The Sooners in general own them and that is when Okie State had better teams....Oklahoma State has had Double-Digit wins 3 out of the last 4 years, but I would be shocked if Gundy did that this year and I expect them to dropoff some this year.
Vanderbilt--------------Back-to-Back 9 win seasons, but they lost their coach and I have them as the least talented team in the SEC.........Just like Oklahoma State I expect Vanderbilt to take a step backwards this year......Their last game of the year is against Tennessee who doesn't want to lose against Vandy 3 years in a row so expect a fired-up Vols team coming into town late November......This should happen after Dan Mullen and Mississippi State take care of them in Starkville the week before as Vandy is 0-5 since 1980 in Starkville (1-4 ATS)..Even the one ATS win they had there they lost by 20 points and were getting 21....The last matchup was in 2009 where Vandy managed to lose outright at Home despite being 8.5 point favorites.....So basically Vandy has had major issues with Mississippi State in the past whereas Ole Miss they play each year as rivals....
Wake Forest-------------Inferior talent with a 1st Year Coach which doesn't look good at this point....The only good news is they play in the ACC where teams can move up quicker than other conferences....
Wisconsin--------------You would think Wisconsin was a talented team in their conference, but this is not the case....They just have a style they stick to along with great coaching amd Gary Andersen did a great job last year.........Definitely a team that gets the most out of their players......
I'll now go through teams and give a brief writeup on them (do a mini-preview of their first game) plus highlight a key game in my opinion for that team along with other things..........Since Florida State is the defending champ I'll give them the honors of being my first team I'll talk about.
Florida State is the defending champ......They are basically a dominant SEC school playing in the ACC.........Talent-wise the only ACC teams in the same solar system as the Seminoles are Clemson and Miami, yet the Seminoles still blew both of them out last year.....Now Clemson is replacing key players and Miami has some inexperience at QB and lost a top WR.......Once again, this team is stacked on both sides of the ball and return the Heisman winner...........The Seminoles open up against Oklahoma State and are laying 17.5 points which is a lot of points against a Gundy offense, but even then it would be tough to go against this super-talented team unless you have a very good reason...That said, you would think their lines will be more inflated this year since they won the title last year, but the talent difference will be so big in some of the Seminoles games that it may not matter....Key games for the Seminoles will be later in the year against major rivals Miami and Florida as those are the only two teams I see on the regular season schedule that are a threat, but even that would depend on several factors leading up to those games.
Oklahoma State....Gundy has done great work despite his difficulty with the Sooners in general.....That said, I expect this team to dropoff this year and as I mentioned in post #15 it would be shocking if they won Double-Digit times again this year (they have 3 out of 4 last years)....They only return 8 Starters as well.......Psychologically, this team must recover after the Florida State game (assuming they lose) as their schedule is brutal after October (at Kansas State, Texas, at Baylor, at Oklahoma)....Overall, I expect them to take a step backwards this year compared to last year.
Oklahoma ended last year on a roll by winning at Kansas State, at Oklahoma State, and then against Alabama and believe it or not they were underdogs in each (+6, +9.5, +16.5)....They now bring back a lot of starters and a schedule that is more than manageable....That said, despite their great, consistent success they usually have a game or two where they just blow it each year....Lucky for them there is a playoff this year though....The key game for the Sooners will obviously be against Baylor (a team that pounded them 41-12 last year), but Stoops has a great Home Record in Norman so that game will definitely be circled........Obviously, there is a game in early October that they thinking about also.....The Sooners open up against Louisiana Tech and are favored by an astronomical 38 points which seems like a lot, but then against they lost to Rice by the same amount last year as the offense fell off last year for Louisiana Tech with Skip Holtz as compared to Sonny Dykes who used to be there............
Louisiana Tech.........Their coach has the last name Holtz...........That said, this is a key year for Skip in his 2nd year......However, I'm really not sold on him as a coach in part due to what happen at South Florida where it seemed like people were high on his team each year and his team failed to deliver and they actually got worse each year.....Yes, he did some things at East Carolina, but what happened at South Florida offset that........Maybe he is more comfortable at lower levels where he can use the Holtz brandname to get a talent edge....Time will tell this year in his second year at Louisiana Tech........They open up as 38 point Underdogs to Oklahoma and then go to Lafayette, North Texas, then a cupcake game before playing at Auburn so we will find out early so a 1-4 start is possible although 2-3 would be good to start with that schedule........Just not sold on this team at all especially since their 4 wins last year were against Lamar, a 1-win Southern Miss team, a 1-win Florida International team and a 2-win UTEP team and given Skip's track record at South Florida I wouldn't expect much improvement this year.
