2014-15 nba

[NumberFreak]

NBA

Yesterday: 0-1


YTD: 29-21-1 (58%) +6.60 units

Breakdown:
Sides: 12-4-1 +7.74 units
Totals: 15-17 -3.14 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units

		TODAY'S MATCHUPS
matchups		act line	my line	side diff	totl diff	meter	pulse
New York	187.0	194.8	4.7	7.8	-9.43	(2.12)
Orlando		-6.0	-1.3			-7.12	(0.79)
Washington	196.5	197.6	1.3	1.1	1.37	(0.08)
Toronto		-5.0	-3.7			0.26	(3.93)
San Antonio	194.5	194.9		0.4	1.60	(1.85)
Detroit		6.5	-0.3	6.8		3.58	5.16
Atlanta		201.0	199.8			9.22	2.92
Boston		6.5	3.7	2.8	1.2	-1.72	0.33
Memphis		200.5	200.3			4.23	(0.06)
Oklahoma City	-4.5	-4.6	0.1	0.2	2.72	0.16
Sacramento	195.5	201.9	4.9	6.4	-7.23	(4.09)
Milwaukee	-10.0	-5.1			4.98	3.83
Miami		192.5	189.8	8.2		-2.32	1.33
Cleveland	-12.5	-4.3		2.7	2.82	0.75
Indiana		188.5	192.6		4.1	0.37	2.15
New Orleans	-1.5	-3.1	1.6		0.67	(0.17)
Golden State	217.5	206.5			8.63	(1.46)
Minnesota	9.5	6.3	3.2	11.0	-6.32	1.77
Utah		199.0	199.6	2.7	0.6	1.59	2.85
Dallas		-4.5	-1.8			1.44	(2.97)
LA Lakers		196.0	198.9	4.7	2.9	-4.88	0.49
Portland		-13.5	-8.8			2.58	(2.12)
Houston		213.5	208.7			4.46	0.89
LA Clippers	-3.0	-4.2	1.2	4.8	5.87	(0.11)

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Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)

Detroit +6.5 -105
SA/Det Over 194.5 -105
Oklahoma City -4.5 -108
Utah +4.5 -102
LA Clippers -3 -107


Leans

Level 2
None

Level 1
Miami
New Orleans

 

[Grindstone30]

what's the differenc between level 1 and 2?

 

[NumberFreak]

I have three levels of plays based on all the available information in my spreadsheets. So far I've only been playing level 3 but I'm monitoring the other two. Basically they're just levels of strength. A portion of my work is new this year so I'm still sorting everything out to see how it all comes together. I'll be able to evaluate better after another year or so in the database so I'm just playing it close to the vest for now. Level 2 has gone 10-8 so far and Level 1 is 10-10.

Thanks for the response.

 

[NumberFreak]

Thu 12

NBA
Yesterday: 2-3

Utah/Dallas last night was a good example of how you can handicap a game correctly and still end up losing. First of all, I got the Jazz at +4.5 a couple hours before it started. The line ended up at +5. They lose 82-87, so I lost by a half point on the shorter line which is tough enough, but there's no way you can account for 11 for 21 (52%) from the free throw line, including 6 missed FTs in the 4th quarter. Still, they were only down three points with :13 left and the ball. They turn it over without getting a shot off and then end up fouling J.J. Barea with less than a second left and he hits both free throws. C'est la vie.

On a side note, "side diff" in the matchups below, which is the difference between my line from the actual line is 158-121-8 (57%) ATS for every game played since 1/5, which is as far back as my tracking goes (graded by 5dimes' closing line). Games with a side difference of at least 0.5 are 152-112-8 (58%) ATS.
YTD: 31-24-1 (56%) +5.48 units

Breakdown:
Sides: 14-6-1 +7.67 units
Totals: 15-18 -4.19 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units

		TODAY'S MATCHUP
matchups		act line	my line	side diff	totl diff	meter	pulse
Cleveland	198.0	198.6	0.8	0.6	2.82	0.75
Chicago		2.5	3.3			0.22	(2.47)

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Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)

Cle/Chi Over 198.0 -102


Leans
Level 2
None
Level 1
None

 

[NumberFreak]

Thu 19

NBA
Yesterday: 0-0
YTD: 32-24-1 (57%) +6.48 units

Breakdown:
Sides: 14-6-1 +7.67 units
Totals: 16-18 -3.19 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units

		TODAY'S MATCHUPS
matchups		act line	my line	side diff	totl diff	effcncy	move
Dallas		213.0	203.8	1.4		2.89	(1.30)
Oklahoma City	-4.5	-3.1		9.2	2.61	(1.98)
San Antonio	203.0	199.9			2.86	0.20
LA Clippers	3.0	-5.8	8.8	3.1	6.61	0.45

<tbody>
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Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)

LA Clippers +3 -104


Leans
Level 2
None
Level 1
None

 

[NumberFreak]

NBA
Yesterday: 1-0
YTD: 33-24-1 (58%) +7.48 units

Breakdown:
Sides: 15-6-1 +8.67 units
Totals: 16-18 -3.19 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units

ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups		act line	my line	side val	totl val	effcncy	move
New Orleans	193.0	195.4		2.4	-0.24	(1.34)
Orlando		5.5	2.3	3.2		-6.42	(0.47)
Indiana		184.0	187.4		3.4	-0.81	0.54
Philadelphia	8.5	0.2	8.3		-9.35	2.10
Toronto		205.5	202.6	0.8		2.48	(0.54)
Atlanta		-5.5	-4.7		2.9	7.56	(0.03)
Miami		182.5	186.9		4.4	-2.69	1.44
New York	7.0	2.7	4.3		-8.39	0.77
Chicago		193.5	199.1		5.6	2.21	0.04
Detroit		6.0	0.1	5.9		0.44	0.23
Cleveland	198.5	194.4			2.70	3.87
Washington	3.5	-4.6	8.1	4.1	1.64	1.03
Phoenix		207.5	205.5	3.9		1.29	(1.09)
Minnesota	-1.5	2.4		2.0	-6.98	2.35
Denver		199.0	195.8	3.2		-3.76	(0.88)
Milwaukee	-7.5	-4.3		3.2	3.31	2.04
Houston		211.5	206.0	1.2		4.25	1.32
Dallas		-2.5	-1.3		5.5	2.48	(1.69)
Portland		191.5	199.5		8.0	3.49	(1.06)
Utah		4.5	-0.7	5.2		0.00	1.93
Boston		204.5	200.4	4.3		-1.93	(0.28)
Sacramento	-3.5	0.8		4.1	-4.91	(2.64)
Brooklyn		193.5	194.4		0.9	-5.03	(2.66)
LA Lakers		3.0	-4.2	7.2		-5.38	(1.28)
San Antonio	209.0	204.8			3.11	0.16
Golden State	-8.0	-8.3	0.3	4.2	9.28	(2.12)

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Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)

Philadelphia +8.5 -102
New York +7 -102
Detroit +6 -105
Washington +3 -102
Houston +2.5 -107
Utah +4.5 -102
Boston +3.5 -107
LA Lakers +3 -101

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3
Open Spot

By far the most action I've had in one day this NBA season. Nine plays (eight dogs) with one being the open teaser. All plays are based on the value from my personal lines (listed above), which encompass a ton of information all rolled into one number and also some other factors I consider. The "side val" column shows the value for that team from the actual line to my line. That edge is 160-122-8 ATS over every game and 154-113-8 (58%) ATS when the value is 0.5+.


Leans
Level 2
None
Level 1
None

 

[NumberFreak]

Sat 21

NBA
Yesterday: 2-6
I was worried about that. First full slate of games after the all-star break last night. Most teams hadn't played in 8 or 9 days so there's a little bit of uncertainty about they're going to resume after the layoff and I just happen to have the most plays I've had all season, by double. Got crushed, going 2-6 plus a first-leg teaser winner. Nothing to do but move on. "My lines" went 5-6-2 (5dimes closer).
YTD: 35-30-1 (54%) +3.27 units

Breakdown:
Sides: 17-12-1 +4.46 units
Totals: 16-18 -3.19 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units

ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups		act line	my line	side val	totl val	effcncy	move
Oklahoma City	196.0	188.9			3.07	(1.45)
Charlotte		4.0	0.1	3.9	7.1	-1.78	(0.53)
New Orleans	194.5	188.1	2.3		-0.78	(2.35)
Miami		-2.0	0.3		6.4	-1.77	2.53
Phoenix		204.5	202.1	7.1		0.85	(1.97)
Chicago		-8.0	-0.9		2.4	1.80	0.27
Toronto		212.0	206.2			3.52	0.77
Houston		-2.0	-3.3	1.3	5.8	4.08	1.04
Sacramento	214.5	207.9	0.2		-4.49	(2.32)
LA Clippers	-10.0	-9.8		6.6	6.66	(0.60)

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Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)

Charlotte +4 -105
New Orleans +2 -108

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)


Leans
Level 2
None
Level 1
None

 

[NumberFreak]

Sun 22

NBA
Yesterday: 1-1
Split the two games yesterday. My line went 3-2 on sides (3-1 at a "side val" of 0.5+).
YTD: 36-31-1 (54%) +3.22 units

Breakdown:
Sides: 18-13-1 +4.41 units
Totals: 16-18 -3.19 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units

	ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups		act line	my line	side val	totl val	effcncy	move
Cleveland	197.5	194.8			4.02	4.01
New York	16.5	4.8	11.7	2.7	-8.90	(0.22)
Atlanta		194.5	192.5			6.68	(0.88)
Milwaukee	5.0	0.4	4.6	2.0	3.53	2.67
Washington	195.0	199.0		4.0	0.74	(0.07)
Detroit		2.0	-2.8	4.8		0.42	(0.09)
Philadelphia	188.0	191.4	3.4	3.4	-9.72	2.04
Orlando		-9.0	-5.6			-5.62	0.01
Golden State	206.0	201.1			9.20	(1.94)
Indiana		6.0	3.2	2.8	4.9	-0.77	0.66
Denver		210.5	203.7	2.2		-3.80	(0.13)
Oklahoma City	-10.5	-8.3		6.8	3.82	(0.34)
Charlotte		198.5	197.5	4.0		-1.75	(0.66)
Dallas		-10.0	-6.0		1.0	2.87	(1.32)
Memphis		192.5	196.9	0.9	4.4	4.12	2.05
Portland		-4.0	-3.1			2.41	(1.70)
Boston		201.5	197.9			-2.36	(0.93)
LA Lakers		3.0	-1.0	4.0	3.6	-5.97	(1.90)

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Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)

Milwaukee +5 -102
Detroit +2 -109
Charlotte +10 -105

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)

 

[NumberFreak]

Analyzing the NBA

Going to post this at the beginning of each new week. This is how my numbers view the NBA at the current time, sorted by efficiency scores and also including "move" which is what direction the team is heading and category numbers that I group each team into (1-10).

	team	W	L	efficiency	move	category
1	Golden State	43	9	9.20	(1.94)	10
2	LA Clippers	37	19	6.77	(0.67)	9
3	Atlanta	43	12	6.68	(0.88)	9
4	Houston	37	18	4.45	1.61	8
5	Memphis	39	14	4.12	2.05	8
6	Cleveland	34	22	4.02	4.01	8
7	Oklahoma City	30	25	3.82	(0.34)	7
8	Milwaukee	31	23	3.53	2.67	7
9	San Antonio	34	21	3.04	0.05	7
10	Dallas	37	20	2.87	(1.32)	7
11	Toronto	37	18	2.61	0.23	7
12	Portland	36	18	2.41	(1.70)	7
13	Chicago	35	21	1.80	(0.29)	6
14	Washington	33	22	0.74	(0.07)	6
15	Phoenix	29	27	0.56	(2.28)	6
16	Detroit	22	33	0.42	(0.09)	6
17	Utah	20	34	0.23	2.42	6
18	New Orleans	28	27	(0.08)	(1.86)	5
19	Indiana	22	33	(0.77)	0.66	5
20	Charlotte	22	31	(1.75)	(0.66)	5
21	Miami	23	31	(2.13)	2.00	4
22	Boston	20	32	(2.36)	(0.93)	4
23	Denver	20	34	(3.80)	(0.13)	4
24	Brooklyn	22	31	(4.93)	(2.83)	3
25	Sacramento	19	35	(4.93)	(2.68)	3
26	Orlando	18	39	(5.62)	0.01	3
27	LA Lakers	13	41	(5.97)	(1.90)	3
28	Minnesota	12	42	(6.62)	2.71	2
29	New York	10	44	(8.90)	(0.22)	1
30	Philadelphia	12	42	(9.72)	2.04	1
Better than their record
Oklahoma City Thunder (14th in wins, 7th in efficiency)
Milwaukee Bucks (13th in wins, 8th in efficiency)
Utah Jazz (22nd in wins, 17th in efficiency)
Worse than their record
Miami Heat (17th in wins, 21st in efficiency)
Chicago Bulls (9th in wins, 13th in efficiency)
Portland Trailblazers (8th in wins, 12th in efficiency)
Toronto Raptors (7th in wins, 11th in efficiency)
Dallas Mavericks (6th in wins, 10th in efficiency)
Hottest teams: Cleveland Cavaliers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Milwaukee Bucks
Coldest teams: Brooklyn Nets, Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns

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[NumberFreak]

Mon 23

NBA
Yesterday: 1-2
Have resumed from the All-Star break at a 4-9 clip. Happened to be the worst week of the season and my most plays in a four day stretch at thirteen. Will have to go a little lighter on the plays following the ASB in the future as a lack of continuity seems to happen often enough in all sports. At least I lowered my units to 60% of full value because I was concerned about it as I mentioned back on Saturday. Still at 60% going into tonight. "My line" side plays with value of 0.5+ went 4-4 and still over 57% ATS over every scheduled game.
YTD: 37-33-1 (53%) +2.15 units

Breakdown:
Sides: 19-15-1 +3.34 units
Totals: 16-18 -3.19 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units

	ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups	cat	act line	my line	side val	totl val	effcncy	move
Philadelphia	1	193.5	187.9	3.7		-8.98	2.58
Miami	4	-11.0	-7.3		5.6	-2.13	2.00
Toronto	7	195.0	198.3		3.3	2.67	0.29
New Orleans	5	7.5	-0.4	7.9		-0.02	(1.80)
Milwaukee	7	193.5	194.9	7.1	1.4	3.49	1.79
Chicago	6	-7.0	0.1			1.80	(0.29)
Minnesota	2	213.0	201.8	1.2		-6.59	2.74
Houston	8	-8.0	-6.8		11.2	4.48	1.63
San Antonio	7	186.5	195.1		8.6	3.05	0.06
Utah	6	5.5	-1.2	6.7		0.28	2.47
Boston	4	212.5	203.4	2.3		-2.60	(1.08)
Phoenix	6	-8.0	-5.7		9.1	0.58	(2.25)
Brooklyn	3	205.0	199.5			-4.86	(2.76)
Denver	3	2.0	-3.2	5.2	5.5	-4.53	(0.91)
Memphis	8	201.0	202.7		1.7	4.24	2.38
LA Clippers	9	-3.5	-7.4	3.9		6.81	(0.64)

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Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)

Milwaukee +7 -108
Utah +5.5 -107
LA Clippers -3.5 -102

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)

 

[NumberFreak]

Tue 24

NBA
Yesterday: 1-2
Couldn't get the Clippers to pull out that late see-saw game. Now 6-11 since the ASB (I forgot my win last Thursday when I posted that record yesterday).
YTD: 38-35-1 (52%) +1.05 units

Breakdown:
Sides: 20-17-1 +2.24 units
Totals: 16-18 -3.19 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units

	ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups	cat	act line	my line	side val	totl val	effcncy	move
Golden State	10	204.0	200.4			9.23	(2.16)
Washington	6	7.0	-1.1	8.1	3.6	0.51	(0.43)
Cleveland	8	205.5	200.7			4.30	4.22
Detroit	6	6.5	0.0	6.5	4.8	1.01	0.93
Indiana	5	205.0	196.9	0.4		-0.68	1.09
Oklahoma City	8	-7.5	-7.1		8.1	4.32	0.74
Toronto	7	204.5	202.2			2.23	(0.30)
Dallas	7	-4.5	-4.6	0.1	2.3	3.04	(0.84)

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Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)

GS/Was Under 204 -108

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)

 

[NumberFreak]

Wed 25

NBA
Yesterday: 0-1
On a terrible 6-12 run coming off the All-Star break and the possible loss of continuity these teams might be suffering after having 8 or 9 days off which, by the way, was a longer ASB than usual. The new commissioner implemented a longer break this season amidst complaints from players that they were getting worn down during the season. You can expect the league to either start earlier or end later as early as next year as another measure to spread out the season and give the players more rest, mainly eliminating playing four games in five nights.
YTD: 38-36-1 (52%) -0.03 units

Breakdown:
Sides: 20-17-1 +2.24 units
Totals: 16-19 -4.27 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units

	ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups	cat	act line	my line	side val	totl val	effcncy	move
Miami	4	200.0	191.7			-2.29	1.35
Orlando	3	3.5	3.0	0.5	8.3	-5.59	0.43
New York	1	197.5	192.4	6.0		-9.05	(0.38)
Boston	4	-10.5	-4.5		5.1	-2.41	(1.25)
Dallas	7	204.5	201.6	8.7		3.12	(0.35)
Atlanta	9	-9.0	-0.3		2.9	6.88	(1.12)
Washington	6	201.0	197.3	0.6		0.13	(0.66)
Minnesota	2	-2.0	-1.4		3.7	-6.54	2.46
Brooklyn	3	193.0	195.4		2.4	-4.10	(1.96)
New Orleans	6	2.5	-2.7	5.2		0.14	(1.54)
Philadelphia	1	187.0	186.5	1.0		-8.92	2.61
Milwaukee	7	-10.5	-9.5		0.5	3.06	1.10
LA Clippers	8	218.0	205.0	2.7		5.94	(1.14)
Houston	8	-3.5	-0.8		13.0	4.58	1.19
Charlotte	4	188.0	191.5	3.9	3.5	-2.20	(1.73)
Chicago	7	-7.0	-3.1			2.29	(0.23)
Phoenix	5	214.0	212.1			-0.06	(2.90)
Denver	3	6.0	-1.8	7.8	1.9	-5.59	(1.91)
LA Lakers	3	192.0	196.1	3.5	4.1	-5.91	(1.73)
Utah	6	-10.0	-6.5			0.39	2.21
Memphis	8	200.0	197.9			4.30	2.37
Sacramento	3	7.0	0.8	6.2	2.1	-5.00	(2.75)
San Antonio	7	194.5	196.1		1.6	2.82	0.54
Portland	7	-2.5	-3.4	0.9		2.18	(1.77)

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Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)

Dallas +9 -107
Charlotte +7 -102

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)