2009 SEC East Preview and Play-On Games

[SoonerBS]

Some might say, "Hey, wait a minute, you're a Big 12 guy, aren't you?" I do have a better understanding of Big 12 football living here in Sooner country, but I have always been a lover and follower of the game across the entire nation. Every year, I study info on all the teams and throughout the season I make bets on all the teams. These previews help me to understand teams better by delving into the personnel, "X's and O's," and schedules of the teams. So, even though my forte is the Big 12, I am a handicapper of all the teams in every conference (I even do some FCS handicapping where they play FBS teams). That is why you will see me write up previews on other conferences as well.

Georgia

OK, so call me contrary, but I am calling for Florida not to make it to the NC this year. In fact, I don't think they will even win the SEC East. I am giving that honor to Georgia this year. Gone from Georgia are the prima donnas of Stafford, Moreno and Massaquoi and coming in are some blue collar workers who are going to be more interested in just winning ball games instead of gaining impressive stats. Georgia has one of the toughest out of conference schedules in the nation going to Oklahoma State, at home with Arizona State, at home with Tennessee Tech and going to Georgia Tech. If they come out of their schedule with only one loss, it will be hard to deny them the opportunity to play for the NC Championship this year (providing they win the SEC Championship and providing that one loss is not to an undefeated Florida team.)

LET ME SAY THIS AT THE OUTSET, WHETHER GEORGIA WINS THE SEC EAST OR NOT, I BELIEVE THEY WILL BE MONEY ALL SEASON LONG AND WILL BE A GOOD PLAY-ON TEAM ALL SEASON! This team this season reminds me a bit of my 2000 Oklahoma Sooners. There is talent all around the team everywhere because they are Georgia and Georgia recruits well, but there are no standouts like there were the last two seasons. There is no publications giving them the National Title before the season starts like they did the last two seasons. This team comes in under the radar and everyone is all but handing the National Title over to their opponent, Florida. In the past, this is whenever Richt has been the toughest. He doesn't present to us a future NFL #1 draft pick at QB, just a good solid QB who has some experience, talent and his team's respect. No standout RB, just 3 RBs on the roster who were top 10 recruits in the nation out of high school. They bring in a solid receiving corps that will not be a letdown from last season at all and what might be the best offensive line in the country! Defensively they bring back 8 starters off last year's team and 67% of the defensive production. Their defense will be solid and steady at every position -- again, nothing flashy, just a solid TEAM that will get the job done.

The only thing that stands in Georgia's way of an SEC championship this season is their schedule. If they overcome that, they will gain an NC championship as well.

Play-On Games:

As was already stated above, I like Georgia in every game this season. They went 4-7-1 ATS last season, and because of that, and because they have lost the Three Amigos, we should see more favorable lines for them as they come in under the radar. My plans are to play on them in every game this year.

 

[SoonerBS]

Florida

I am not going to spend a great deal of space telling you what you already know about this team. As you look at Florida this year, you see a similar team to last season in this one respect -- there are no weak spots. If anything, the weak spot will be the receiving corps and special teams with the vacancy that Percy Harvin left. Other than that, Florida is solid all around and poised to win another National Championship. The thing is, it is very difficult to win back to back National Championships -- even more so in today's days and times. A team needs a little "luck" to go along with the skills and hard work. There is always a surprise loss that seems to occur and last season it was the loss to Mississippi at home. Tim Tebow will likely go down as the best college QB of all time because of all he has achieved, but I don't think he is the best QB in NCAA skill-wise. I believe that honor goes to Colt McCoy. But, Tebow has an ability to not only perform at a high level, but actually WILL his teammates to do the same. It is leadership of the highest caliber. But, can we actually expect him to accomplish that task again this year? I think it's too much to ask. They most definitely will lose another unexpected game this season, but then they will lose to Georgia on October 31st on a neutral field in Jacksonville, FL. Florida not only went 13-1 SU last season, but they also went 12-1 ATS. It's going to be harder this year to find ATS wins with Florida after Vegas gets through with the lines.

Play-On Games:

September 19th versus Tennessee: The tiff between Kiffin and Meyer has been well documented. Motivation should be high here and I don't expect Meyer to call off the dogs. Couple this with the fact that Tennessee is grabbing a great deal more hype than their personnel warrants and we have what could be a good line and a Florida cover. My prediction: Florida 38 and Tennessee 13.

 

[SoonerBS]

Tennessee

Let me just say this to start this preview: I believe it is a toss up between Tennessee, South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky for any of the remaining places in the SEC East.

Now that that has been said, I'll start with Tennessee. Offensively last season, Tennessee was horrible. They only averaged 17.3 ppg and that about says it all. You can't win in college football anymore averaging 17.3 ppg. A BIG part of the problem was QB. None of the QBs that played last year averaged a completion percentage above 52%. There were only 8 TD passes accounted for last year and 9 interceptions. That is just pitiful. Things are not looking up for the passing game this season as it is doubtful that either QB will improve that much. BUT, if they can limit mistakes and turnovers, whoever ends up being QB may not have to do much more than hand the ball off to a RB. Kiffin will utilize the power running game a lot this season. Tennessee recruited two of the best RBs in the nation and both will likely see a lot of playing time this year as true freshmen. The offensive line is big, but not nimble. Again, this does not favor the finesse game, but does favor the power running game.

Defensively, Tennessee only allowed 16.8 ppg. That was fantastic and the only bright spot on this team. Can they repeat that for this year? They lost 3 of their best defensive players in Wilson, McKenzie and Ayers, but they certainly retain enough talent to make a solid defense this year. On top of that, they have the Old Man Kiffin and Ed Orgeron coaching up the defensive side of the ball. The defense will be one of the best in the SEC again this season.

There are two points I want to make before moving on to play-on games:

1.) I don't like it whenever a coach gets more attention than his team does. That is certainly the case here with Kiffin. He's brash and he's an asshole. We'll see how that plays out with his team's performance on the field this season.

2.) Be looking for UNDERS with this team this year. The combination of a power running game and a stiff defense should mean some low scoring TOTALS.

Play-On Games:

September 5th versus Western Kentucky: It will be interesting to see what kind of line will be set on this opening game. I'm thinking there will be a line of around -28. WKU lost 5 starters off their 7 defensive linemen/linebackers from last season. Tennessee's power running game will likely make shambles of a Sunbelt defense that brings back only 4 starters. On the other side of the ball, last year WKU was only able to score 7 points against Alabama and 3 points against Kentucky. This Tennessee defense is even better. My prediction: Tennessee 42 and WKU 3. (This would be a higher point total than Tennessee ever had in any one game last year.)

September 12th versus UCLA: I'm thinking every gambler in the country will be on Tennessee here. UCLA was not very good last year, but the Vols traveling to the West Coast were embarrassed with an OT loss. This is definitely a revenge spot, but it is also a slightly better Tennessee team and it will be UCLA traveling across the country for this contest. I'm thinking the line could be Tennessee -14 in this one. My prediction: Tennessee 28 and UCLA 10.

October 31st versus South Carolina: I have tried and tried to see South Carolina being better this year than they have been the last 3 years and I just can't find any reasons to believe that. Most of what I read is that this will be Spurrier's 5th year at South Carolina and his recruits will make a difference. The fact is their offensive line stinks and so does their starting QB. Nothing changes this year with South Carolina except for the fact that they will not win this game like they did last year. I think Kiffin could thrive on trying to humiliate a legendary coach in order to make himself look better. He probably has the team to do it this time around. My prediction: Tennessee 32 and South Carolina 10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is the Rodney Dangerfield of the SEC -- they get no respect. Even after accumulating a 7-6 record last year and going to their first bowl game since 1982 and winning it, they are getting no respect from the preseason press. What's even more surprising is the fact that they look to be even better this season on both sides of the ball. They bring back 8 on offense and 9 on defense. They bring back 80% of their defensive production and this was a team that only allowed 19.6 ppg last season. They start a QB this season who lead them to their bowl victory last year and who looks to be the right fit for this team. So, why are publications still listing them towards the bottom of the conference? It might have to do with them finishing 1-6 in their last 7 regular season games. OK, good, maybe we can make some money on some soft lines again this year.

Play-On Games:

September 19th versus Mississippi State: Mississippi State is going to be horrible this season and by far the worse team in the entire SEC. The great thing here is that since Vanderbilt is not getting any respect, AND since Mississippi State beat them last year whenever Vanderbilt was -2 point favorites, we may get a line here of about -6. My prediction: Vanderbilt 26 and Mississippi State 7.

October 3rd versus Mississippi: Vanderbilt gets this game sandwiched between a road trip to Rice (which they should win) and a road trip to Army (which they should win). Mississippi on the other hand will be coming off a road trip ESPN Thursday night game against South Carolina and will have Alabama on deck. This is a bad spot for Ole Miss. My prediction: Mississippi 32 and Vanderbilt 28.

November 7th at Florida: Here is another one of those "road plays" that is rare with me, but I see it as warranted here. Florida will be coming off their big game against Georgia, win or lose, they play this one at home before going back on the road to go play at South Carolina. It will be very easy to overlook Vanderbilt here and Vanderbilt should be big dogs. My prediction: Florida 35 and Vanderbilt 28.

 

[SoonerBS]

Kentucky

Kentucky surprised me last season with a 7-6 record after losing some value personnel to NFL and graduation the year before. This season they bring back their QB, Hartline who proved to be a decent QB, there is hope that RB Alfonso Smith will have a breakout year (and he definitely has the potential) and Kentucky should have a solid offensive line as they manage to do on almost an annual basis. They recruited a WR, Chris Matthews from JUCO to shore up the receivers corps. This offense will not dazzle us, but it should be solid and consistent enough to win some ball games this season.

Defensively the Wildcats were looking solid going into 2009 until their star pass rusher of a year ago, Jeremy Jarmon, lost his eligibility this season by failing a drug test. They have recruited a JUCO for the other DE, but their pass rushing potential took a big hit with Jarmon being out. That places the defensive production at over a 60% loss from last season. It will be hard for them to make it up.

Play-On Games:

September 5th versus Miami, OH.: This game will be played on a neutral field in Cincinnati. It will be a great opener for Kentucky because Miami, OH was really bad last season and looks to be even worse this season. This will be a great "tune up" game for Kentucky and we could even be lucky enough to grab a -10 to -14 type line here. My prediction: Kentucky 38 and Miami, OH 10.

October 3rd versus Alabama: This is a similar situation to this game last season. Alabama had this game sandwiched between two heavy hitters in conference play and fell asleep on Kentucky. They were fortunate to get out of the game with a 3 point win. This year, Alabama will be coming off a game against Arkansas -- a game they will not be able to overlook this year, and they will have Mississippi on deck. Kentucky will be coming off a game against Florida, but they will not be able to overlook anyone this year. Kentucky could be catching +12 here in this spot. My prediction: Alabama 24 and Kentucky 17.

October 31st versus Mississippi State: This is Kentucky's homecoming game and it is stuck between a couple of very winnable games against ULM and Eastern Kentucky. MSU will be coming off a game against Florida the week before. Mississippi St will be everyone's whipping boy this season. My prediction: Kentucky 45 and MSU 10.

 

[SoonerBS]

South Carolina

South Carolina brings back 11 starters, their starting QB is likely to be one of the guys who stunk it up last year, their offensive line is horrible, their defense is not good against better offensive teams, and for some reason Phil Steele has them listed 4th in the SEC East? Am I missing something here? What is exactly is suppose to happen to make them better this season than they were last year? I'm not buying it. South Carolina plays a tougher schedule this year than they did last year and I don't see anymore wins than last year.

Play-On Games:

September 24th versus Mississippi: I have one simple rule I bind myself to during the college football season no matter how bad it looks: ALWAYS PLAY ON THE HOME TEAM IN ESPN THURSDAY NIGHT GAMES! I'll do it here, too. No prediction.

 

[MightyGinseng]

Florida
Florida not only went 13-1 SU last season, but they also went 12-1 ATS. It's going to be harder this year to find ATS wins with Florida after Vegas gets through with the lines.

Shouldn't Vegas have adjusted the lines last year, as Florida kept on covering week after week?

I do think finding value with Florida will be very hard, but the Tenn game is worth a shot. My guess is Florida opens at -17.

Great preview write ups. I read every single one you post.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

So basically you pick Georgia to do what Florida did to them last year. That is turn the tables. I hope you are right, but I certainly don't see it that way. Richt is 2-6 against Florida, and I do not see any improvment in this team from last year's, other than health wise. The problem with that is just how healthy are the returnees? How much, if anything, did their injuries take out of them? As far as wagering on them in every game, Georgia has not been a big ATS winner since 2002. Their record since 2003 is 35-36-3, by my records, which is just about dead even. They have problems covering against Florida (3-6-2) in their last 11, and Tennessee (1-4 in their last 5). I would be a lot more selective in my wagering when it comes to this team. Blanket statements usually come back to haunt you.

As far as the other 4 go, I wold put Kentucky at the bottom because of the loss of Jarmon, and flip a coin between Tennessee, South Carolina, and Vandy.

 

[GoSooners]

Shouldn't Vegas have adjusted the lines last year, as Florida kept on covering week after week?

I do think finding value with Florida will be very hard, but the Tenn game is worth a shot. My guess is Florida opens at -17.

Great preview write ups. I read every single one you post.

I think the number one mistake a person can make regarding the lines is thinking there is going to be continuality into the next season, and they pick up right where they left off. This almost never happens. Especially after having an outstanding ATS season. Like I've stated in other threads on here, Florida DID repeat a decent ATS season from 2007 to 2008 going 8-4 and 10-1 ATS. And UCLA won 8 games ATS two years in a row in 2006-2007. But these were the only repeat teams in these years. I think it's important to understand that out of 120 teams, only around 20 on average win 8 games or more against the spread in a given season. And on average very seldom do these teams repeat one of those good ATS seasons. On average about 1 team a year will do it. But there have been just as many seasons where you didn't have any ATS repeaters. As far as Florida goes this year, there will in all lilkihood be a little bit different mindset with Florida and their opponents this season. For one thing, Florida wasn't the IT team in college football last year. It was Georgia, who was rated number 1 at the beginning of the year. And LSU was just coming off the national championship. So the Gators had a mission to prove who was the real number one in their conference. Plus they happen to lose to Ole Miss at home early in the season, which probably helped their lines a little in their favor after that... This year they will be going from the hunter to the hunted. And most of the SEC teams on their schedule will in all likihood be improved this year with the exception of maybe Kentucky. So your going to be looking at the same inflated lines, except Florida will now have a target on their backs. It doesn't mean they'll lose their games. But I expect the spreads to be much harder to cover this year. Plus they'll have one more conference road game than they had last season. And despite what happened with Florida last season, double digit spreads are not easy to cover in the SEC. And in fact I don't even consider the favorites in double digit spreads when it comes to SEC teams. It's proved to be a bad bet over the years. Florida has their work cut out for them this year. It won't be nearly that easy again. And after their beatdowns from last year, Georgia, LSU and South Carolina will have revenge on their minds. Those road games will be tougher. Florida will probably still be hard to cover against on their home field. And with the Kiffin factor coming into play, Florida might be on a mission to deliver a beatdown for the Tennessee game. But things could get much tougher for the Gators later on down the line when the missions end..


By the way I agree, great writeups by SoonerBS. Nobody that I've seen in any of the other forums breaks down the Play On games like this from every conference. He is a real asset to this forum.

 

[KOOPSTAKNICCA]

Great information in this thread SoonerBS. I really appreciate your contributions. GL next season!! :toast:

 

[silver7]

I Think Too Much Is Expected From

Ol Miss this yr. 1st of all everyone in entranced by the Gator W, but remember they DID lose 4 gms, 2 of which were @ Oxford vs SC & Vandy. Both 7 & 6 teams. Also even tho they have 8 starters back on both O & D, they lost two AA & 1st round NFL draft choices in Oher OT & Jerry DT. Not that they won't be a good team, they will. But some are predicting 12-0, which is crazy. I see 10-2 or 9-3, possible upset @ SC & losses to Bama & LSU! The schedule IS favorable as they get those 2 @ home, and s/b heavy favs in all the SEC rd games. Just feeling that too much is being placed on this team!

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Nice stuff as always SBS!

In terms of Florida, they had an great team last year and deserve all the credit and pre-season hype but I have a feeling this year could be a little different too. Looking back at FLorida's last two games, I feel they could have gone either way. Not taking anything away from Florida but seriously Bama had them on the ropes and OU beat themselves more than anything. Despite the fact they could of finished with 2 or 3 losses, this year I think people will look at Florida like they are unbeatable and in a different class. People and the media remember UF blowing out UGA and LSU in those big time match-ups, not the crazy TO margins. Don't get me wrong, I thought Florida was an awesome team last year but I think they will face new challenges this year and be in more dog fights. FSU, UGA, and LSU will all be better teams I believe but the spreads will still be through the roof. They didn't have a bulls eye on their back last year.

One of the main keys to covering the spread is turnovers and just looking back at 4 games in 2008: UF racked up 15 turnovers total against UGA, LSU, USC, and FSU!! Their D could do it again but odds are they won't. There will be a lot of value going against UF this year even if they still win 12 or 11 games SU.

Play against on Nov. 14th @ South Carolina
Call me crazy but they should be handing out a boat load of points to the Game Cocks on the road and I think this will be a good spot for the Ole Ball Coach to get a cover.

 

[TonyIII]

Florida

I am not going to spend a great deal of space telling you what you already know about this team. As you look at Florida this year, you see a similar team to last season in this one respect -- there are no weak spots. If anything, the weak spot will be the receiving corps and special teams with the vacancy that Percy Harvin left. Other than that, Florida is solid all around and poised to win another National Championship. The thing is, it is very difficult to win back to back National Championships -- even more so in today's days and times. A team needs a little "luck" to go along with the skills and hard work. There is always a surprise loss that seems to occur and last season it was the loss to Mississippi at home. Tim Tebow will likely go down as the best college QB of all time because of all he has achieved, but I don't think he is the best QB in NCAA skill-wise. I believe that honor goes to Colt McCoy. But, Tebow has an ability to not only perform at a high level, but actually WILL his teammates to do the same. It is leadership of the highest caliber. But, can we actually expect him to accomplish that task again this year? I think it's too much to ask. They most definitely will lose another unexpected game this season, but then they will lose to Georgia on October 31st on a neutral field in Jacksonville, FL. Florida not only went 13-1 SU last season, but they also went 12-1 ATS. It's going to be harder this year to find ATS wins with Florida after Vegas gets through with the lines.

Play-On Games:

September 19th versus Tennessee: The tiff between Kiffin and Meyer has been well documented. Motivation should be high here and I don't expect Meyer to call off the dogs. Couple this with the fact that Tennessee is grabbing a great deal more hype than their personnel warrants and we have what could be a good line and a Florida cover. My prediction: Florida 38 and Tennessee 13.

Hey i gotta say much respect to the Sooners, but your nuts. Florida and OU are going right back to the NC game again. They will both probally be undefeated going in too. thats just how its going to be. Ill put money on it too.

 

[TonyIII]

When your as good as Florida and OU will be this year. You dont nead much luck. If anything OU will nead it against Texas. Cause Texas will be the only team in the nation anywhere near these 2. Look for OU and Florida to absolutely destroy teams this year. These 2 teams are maybe the best 2 teams in college history and Texas aint far behind.

 

[TonyIII]

ive never sean a top 3 or top 2 preseason that will never change the whole year. maybe 1 and 2 will change places and maybe a texas loss to OU will bump them from the 3 spot, but other thant that Florida OU will ride the 1 and 2 spot all the way to LA.

 

[Georgiaboy]

We are going to be good, good enough to win the East....that is to be determined. Games are won on the line of scrimmage and we (UGA) return our top OT (Sturdivant will start at LT)and his backup (Vance will start at guard). We return a 1st round DT in Jeff Owens who was hurt the first game of the season against Georgia Southern. To hear this team talk is alot like what you described in your post, bunch of blue collars who are rejoicing in the fact EVERYONE is over looking them. We are going into Ok St and winning. South Carolina is going to be awful this year. Might be a dog at Arkansas and should defeat an overmatched Arizona St team to get the season rolling. GO DAWGS

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Play-On Games:

September 19th versus Tennessee: The tiff between Kiffin and Meyer has been well documented. Motivation should be high here and I don't expect Meyer to call off the dogs. Couple this with the fact that Tennessee is grabbing a great deal more hype than their personnel warrants and we have what could be a good line and a Florida cover. My prediction: Florida 38 and Tennessee 13.[/quote]

The only problem I have with that is if you are correct about the final score, Florida DOES NOT cover. Better check your odds before picking "Play-On Games". The line is Florida -27.

 

[GoSooners]

I'll let the general betting public get their jollies with the Florida/Tenn. I think what happens here is Meyer will probably fullfill his mission of kicking the Vols/Kiffin's ass and covering the line no matter what it is. But I think what this is going to do is lull the public into a false sense of security with this team, and there is a good chance I bet against them down the road because of the way overinflated lines they'll be getting after this early season massacre. In fact, a good spot to bet against the Gators if they should cover against the Vols, might be the next week against Kentucky. A game in which they'll be giving way too many road points on their first trip outside of the swamp to an SEC team who I believe will be able to run the ball much better this year than last. Not a good combination for a Florida cover.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Florida covered every away game last year, and two of them were at -24 or bigger. Kentucky has one of the worst teams in the SEC. Very little offense, and a defense that lost it's best player because of a rules violation. While Florida may not equal their 13-1 ATS record of last year, wager against them at your own risk. The line against Tennessee is -27.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

I still think the hardest thing about betting against UF is getting past Meyer's attitude when it comes to covering the spread. Especially now with the implications in getting to the BCS title game. I will more than likely stay away until they get some stiff competition. No way do they cover over 70% this year.