2009 CFB POW Week #7

[pops69]

doing all the grading now, but when i can go 3-2 with my own shit picks that took about 2 min to come up with and all the pow's lose and dr b gets his ass kicked as well, than i would assume that everyone must have won large

working on all the updates now. need a few hours to go thru this mess

back in a couple of hours. post any week #6 questions here. i've already pulled in the week #7 schedule and it will be in the week #6 final when i finish grading and upload everything

back in a few

 

[pops69]

billy Walters Jr

Pops, do you by chance have the 2H lines from last nights Nevada/Louisiana Tech game? Spread and O/U..

nevada -4.5 28 o/u


jessee 1111

whats the pink for again?

rx pow's that dont fit the normal guide lines

also going back to look at my detail analysis ref how i'm using the pink. plus i know that i cant use oil or ctp in any of the analysis as i know that they are using my full data base which takes into account fades and other factors so could be distorting the data. i'll do that today while everyone is making mad money on the no fun league

jacksonjohn

Wouldn't you know it. I play them all and go 0-3 with Temple, Miss. State, and New Mexico St. based on the closing numbers. Did you go with those pops? Would you stay with them next week?

jj below were the ones on my short list for those type plays. keep in mind that the number will change with 100 more games added

9:00a 314 CENTRAL MICHIGAN EASTERN MICHIGAN OVRMPWTS 30-19
9:00a 326 NORTHWESTERN MIAMI OHIO OVRSMWTS 14-8
9:30a 330 MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA OVRSMATS 6-19
10:00a 332 TEMPLE BALL STATE UNDRMPATS 4-12
9:00a 334 ARMY VANDERBILT OVRSMWTS 14-8
9:30a 372 SOUTH CAROLINA KENTUCKY UNDRMPATS 4-12

 

[jacksonjohn]

jj below were the ones on my short list for those type plays. keep in mind that the number will change with 100 more games added

9:00a 314 CENTRAL MICHIGAN EASTERN MICHIGAN OVRMPWTS 30-19
9:00a 326 NORTHWESTERN MIAMI OHIO OVRSMWTS 14-8
9:30a 330 MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA OVRSMATS 6-19
10:00a 332 TEMPLE BALL STATE UNDRMPATS 4-12
9:00a 334 ARMY VANDERBILT OVRSMWTS 14-8
9:30a 372 SOUTH CAROLINA KENTUCKY UNDRMPATS 4-12

1. What do the numbers at the end of the line mean, i.e. 30-19?
2. Why didn't the Miss.St. and N.M. St. games quallify?
3. C.Mich closed with 75% of public over and Vandy 58% over. I thought the public had to be 67% under with the total dropping for it to be an over play. What am I missing?

 

[pops69]

most unusual LM that i saw yesterday

Tex Tech O/U opening line 59.5 closing line 54.5 with 87% of the public on the over

 

[pops69]

jj below were the ones on my short list for those type plays. keep in mind that the number will change with 100 more games added

9:00a 314 CENTRAL MICHIGAN EASTERN MICHIGAN OVRMPWTS 30-19
9:00a 326 NORTHWESTERN MIAMI OHIO OVRSMWTS 14-8
9:30a 330 MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA OVRSMATS 6-19
10:00a 332 TEMPLE BALL STATE UNDRMPATS 4-12
9:00a 334 ARMY VANDERBILT OVRSMWTS 14-8
9:30a 372 SOUTH CAROLINA KENTUCKY UNDRMPATS 4-12

1. What do the numbers at the end of the line mean, i.e. 30-19?
2. Why didn't the Miss.St. and N.M. St. games quallify?
3. C.Mich closed with 75% of public over and Vandy 58% over. I thought the public had to be 67% under with the total dropping for it to be an over play. What am I missing?

i'm still grading now, but the numbers on the end is the w/l record of those type of plays. so eg s car vs kenty when the under are a majority pick against the spread they went over 12 times and went under 4 times so they went over in that example again

 

[pops69]

week #6 record is 266-315 45.8% pow w/l on closing lines. two games were push vs the closing lines. both were the games that took days for the OL to come out. tex am and louisville

should have the spreadsheet up with the new leader board in a few.

 

[oilbarrel]

fyi- i don't look at anything for my POW picks- just look at teams and throw shit up there like most people- I sure as hell don't bet what i put here

 

[pops69]

new leader board ytd

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 668pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="889"><col style="width: 118pt;" width="157"> <col style="width: 62pt;" width="82"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 60pt;" span="2" width="80"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 48pt;" span="2" width="64"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 80pt;" width="106"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 118pt;" height="20" width="157">
</td> <td class="xl84" style="width: 62pt;" width="82">Week #6</td> <td class="xl84" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Week #6</td> <td class="xl90" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl84" style="width: 60pt;" width="80">L5 Weeks</td> <td class="xl84" style="width: 60pt;" width="80">L5 Weeks</td> <td class="xl90" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl84" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">YTD</td> <td class="xl85" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">YTD</td> <td class="xl88" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl85" style="width: 80pt;" width="106">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl84" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Rx Capper</td> <td class="xl84">Won</td> <td class="xl84">Lost</td> <td class="xl89">Win %</td> <td class="xl84">Won</td> <td class="xl84">Lost</td> <td class="xl89">Win %</td> <td class="xl84">Won</td> <td class="xl84">Lost</td> <td class="xl89">Win %</td> <td class="xl86">$110 per Game</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl90" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">thikdik</td> <td class="xl83">5</td> <td class="xl83">3</td> <td class="xl88">62.5%</td> <td class="xl92">23</td> <td class="xl92">14</td> <td class="xl88">62.2%</td> <td class="xl85">29</td> <td class="xl85">15</td> <td class="xl88">65.9%</td> <td class="xl87">$1,250 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl90" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">mj23mg</td> <td class="xl85">4</td> <td class="xl85">4</td> <td class="xl88">50.0%</td> <td class="xl91">18</td> <td class="xl91">10</td> <td class="xl88">64.3%</td> <td class="xl85">23</td> <td class="xl85">13</td> <td class="xl88">63.9%</td> <td class="xl87">$870 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl90" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">coachesplays</td> <td class="xl85">3</td> <td class="xl85">0</td> <td class="xl88">100.0%</td> <td class="xl91">14</td> <td class="xl91">10</td> <td class="xl88">58.3%</td> <td class="xl85">20</td> <td class="xl85">11</td> <td class="xl88">64.5%</td> <td class="xl87">$790 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl90" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">eatthechalk</td> <td class="xl85">4</td> <td class="xl85">1</td> <td class="xl88">80.0%</td> <td class="xl91">16</td> <td class="xl91">10</td> <td class="xl88">61.5%</td> <td class="xl85">21</td> <td class="xl85">12</td> <td class="xl88">63.6%</td> <td class="xl87">$780 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl90" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">bigleroy</td> <td class="xl85">3</td> <td class="xl85">2</td> <td class="xl88">60.0%</td> <td class="xl91">20</td> <td class="xl91">10</td> <td class="xl88">66.7%</td> <td class="xl85">23</td> <td class="xl85">14</td> <td class="xl88">62.2%</td> <td class="xl87">$760 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl90" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">drluck</td> <td class="xl85">4</td> <td class="xl85">1</td> <td class="xl88">80.0%</td> <td class="xl91">16</td> <td class="xl91">9</td> <td class="xl88">64.0%</td> <td class="xl85">16</td> <td class="xl85">9</td> <td class="xl88">64.0%</td> <td class="xl87">$610 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl90" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">bob sakamano</td> <td class="xl85">5</td> <td class="xl85">4</td> <td class="xl88">55.6%</td> <td class="xl91">21</td> <td class="xl91">20</td> <td class="xl88">51.2%</td> <td class="xl85">28</td> <td class="xl85">20</td> <td class="xl88">58.3%</td> <td class="xl87">$600 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">xanboo</td> <td class="xl85">6</td> <td class="xl85">3</td> <td class="xl88">66.7%</td> <td class="xl91">18</td> <td class="xl91">11</td> <td class="xl88">62.1%</td> <td class="xl85">18</td> <td class="xl85">11</td> <td class="xl88">62.1%</td> <td class="xl87">$590 </td> </tr> </tbody></table>

last 5 weeks below as well:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 263pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="351"><col style="width: 119pt;" width="159"> <col style="width: 48pt;" span="2" width="64"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 119pt;" height="20" width="159">bigleroy</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" align="right" width="64">20</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" align="right" width="64">10</td> <td class="xl87" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> 67%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">pops69</td> <td align="right">6</td> <td align="right">3
</td> <td class="xl87">67%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">mj23mg</td> <td align="right">18</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td class="xl87"> 64%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">drluck</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td class="xl87"> 64%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">ty bounce</td> <td align="right">21</td> <td align="right">12</td> <td class="xl87"> 64%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">thikdik</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td class="xl87"> 62%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl84" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">xanboo</td> <td align="right">18</td> <td align="right">11</td> <td class="xl87"> 62%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">eatthechalk</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td class="xl87"> 62%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">bullets</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">12</td> <td class="xl87"> 61%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">wvgolfeer</td> <td align="right">21</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td class="xl87"> 60%</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

final week #6 spreadsheet below. check for any brown thumbs errors. going to dinner, back in a few

thanks to everyone that posted pow's for week #6 and so far this year

 

[pops69]

fyi- i don't look at anything for my POW picks- just look at teams and throw shit up there like most people- I sure as hell don't bet what i put here

i know that you and i kind of do the same as well. but i never go on any of the key games as neither does ctp. so it would be a good idea if you stayed off of those as well (week day's and sat free ones) so we dont fuck up the key capper numbers

 

[pops69]

i left la tech off the pow pick in the master just added in that loss now so it will be corrected in the next upload

 

[FennisDembo]

Wow I am such a coin flipper. I cap these but I'm glad I don't play these. Everything I play is 2nd half stuff.

 

[pops69]

Wow I am such a coin flipper. I cap these but I'm glad I don't play these. Everything I play is 2nd half stuff.

most people are plain and simple coin flippers. it's tough finding good 40 and under cappers. to me they are the gods of sports betting. if you find them treat them like they were solid gold

 

[jacksonjohn]

When you get a chance please take a look at your post #134 in CFB week 6, and let's focus only on that particular set of circumstances as it pertains to yesterday's games. I need clarification on this:

Wouldn't you know it. I play them all and go 0-3 with Temple, Miss. State, and New Mexico St. based on the closing numbers. Did you go with those pops? Would you stay with them next week?

Thanks.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

week #6 record is 266-315 45.8% pow w/l on closing lines. two games were push vs the closing lines. both were the games that took days for the OL to come out. tex am and louisville

What is your take on games where the OL comes out several days after all the others? Like for totals, one I had a play on and the O/U was 56.5, total landed on 57.

 

[pops69]

What is your take on games where the OL comes out several days after all the others? Like for totals, one I had a play on and the O/U was 56.5, total landed on 57.

no data to give any decent answer

 

[pops69]

When you get a chance please take a look at your post #134 in CFB week 6, and let's focus only on that particular set of circumstances as it pertains to yesterday's games. I need clarification on this:

Wouldn't you know it. I play them all and go 0-3 with Temple, Miss. State, and New Mexico St. based on the closing numbers. Did you go with those pops? Would you stay with them next week?

Thanks.

to my knowledge the only one that was on the early radar for that on the ones you posted was temple. but i'll look at all the detail and let you know 4 sure

 

[pops69]

When you get a chance please take a look at your post #134 in CFB week 6, and let's focus only on that particular set of circumstances as it pertains to yesterday's games. I need clarification on this:

Wouldn't you know it. I play them all and go 0-3 with Temple, Miss. State, and New Mexico St. based on the closing numbers. Did you go with those pops? Would you stay with them next week?

Thanks.

only the temple was in the correct bracket as i had mentioned to you. below is the detail on all three
temple UNDRMPATS

miss st UNDRSMWTS

new mex st UNDRMPNLM

 

[jacksonjohn]

only the temple was in the correct bracket as i had mentioned to you. below is the detail on all three
temple UNDRMPATS

miss st UNDRSMWTS

new mex st UNDRMPNLM

Okay, all I know is that all three of these games @kickoff had a public % on the under of more than 66%. The line move on the total had gone down from the opening line. The way I read your post was that these were the only two requirements for a play on the over. My question is what is different about the Temple game from the other two?

 

[pops69]

Okay, all I know is that all three of these games @kickoff had a public % on the under of more than 66%. The line move on the total had gone down from the opening line. The way I read your post was that these were the only two requirements for a play on the over. My question is what is different about the Temple game from the other two?

below is the actual data and just doubled check to make sure it's correct as i also have a print out of the sports option closing numbers for every cfb and nfl game as a back up to my data bases. not sure why i didnt have new mex on the radar but it was the same as temple. miss st was not. detail data on your three games is below

i do know for a fact that the ones we track in the few types did go 9-2 and as i also got conf on those numbers from others that follow the same ones as well

 

[jacksonjohn]

below is the actual data and just doubled check to make sure it's correct as i also have a print out of the sports option closing numbers for every cfb and nfl game as a back up to my data bases. not sure why i didnt have new mex on the radar but it was the same as temple. miss st was not. detail data on your three games is below

i do know for a fact that the ones we track in the few types did go 9-2 and as i also got conf on those numbers from others that follow the same ones as well

Thank you. Hard to believe I missed that one as Miss. State is my alma mater. So the stuff goes 9-2 and I just pick up on the two losers. Funny how shit happens. Take a look at the graded steam plays from Saturday. Went something like 55-35. But occasionally there was steam on both sides of the same game. Smarts playing middles I guess.