2009 Big Ten Preview and Play-On Games

[SoonerBS]

Talk about a conference that is hard to figure out going into 2009 and this one is it. I think we can all say that the Big Ten has not been as strong as the SEC, Big 12 and PAC 10 the last couple of years, but that doesn't mean that this is a conference without talent. In fact, just to look at the teams that will be fighting for the championship this year of the conference, and you have to believe that there is talent there. Penn State and Ohio State are already being projected by several preseason publications this year as being the odds on favorites to contend for the conference championship. To believe this, one would have to believe that these two teams are not going to be "rebuilding," but "reloading." Penn State has only 37 lettermen returning and 9 starters off 2008's championship team. Ohio State has only 38 lettermen and 11 starters coming back off the 2008 team. That means that many believe there is ample talent left on both teams to simply "reload" for this season.

Personally, I think the conference could be won by any number of 5 teams: Penn State, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa and Michigan State. Saying that, I also think that a team that could make some waves and will be what could be one of the best ATS teams this season is Michigan. Minnesota could be the most "over-hyped" team and Northwestern could be a sleeper ATS machine. I'm not crazy about Wisconsin because I see a trend with Bret Bielema's coached teams that is not positive as his seasons are getting progressively worse. Purdue and Indiana look as if they deserve to be at the bottom of the pack this year, but with Purdue having a new coach there is an unknown element with them.

I'm going to follow Phil Steele's order of teams here in the preview, but that doesn't mean that I necessarily endorse the order as the way this conference will end up this season.

Penn State

One of the features that will be a common theme whenever we discuss Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan is the fact that these three teams in particular are loaded with highly recruited talent. That is the reason we can talk about Penn State repeating as a Big Ten champion this season even though they only bring back 5 starters on offense and 4 starters on defense. Offensively we all know what they can do at QB with Darryl Clark coming back off an impressive year. Also, Evan Royster, the RB, is back proved to be a major contributor to last season's success. How these two players perform though will depend on how well the new offensive line gels. You guys know that I am a sucker for good, experienced offensive lines. This unit only brings back two experienced starters off last season's line, so the new guys are going to have to step up quickly. Also an area of concern is the WR corps where they lost all 3 of their top receivers off last year's team.

Defensively, even though they lose 7 starters, I am not nearly as concerned. This is Penn State and Joe Paterno has proven time and time again that he knows how to recruit defensive players. Every corps on this side of the ball will relatively new except the linebackers who will be outstanding. My main area of concern is going to be the completely new defensive backs. It would be nice for Penn State to have one or two returning leaders back there, but they are nowhere to be seen.

One more note here before we get into the "play-on" games: Joe Paterno, don't complain about the BCS unless you are willing to play somebody on your non-conference schedule every year. This is one of the poorest excuses of a schedule I have seen a top ten team play in some time.

Play-On Games:

September 26th vs. Iowa: PSU went 8-4 ATS last year, so finding some good spots for them ATS this year may be a bit more difficult. However, this game not only puts Iowa in a bad spot, but it should be a revenge game for PSU after Iowa finished any chances Penn State had of going to the BCS Championship game by beating them towards the end of last season. While PSU gets to ease into this game, Iowa has a big game the week before against out of conference foe, Arizona. My prediction: Penn State 28 and Iowa 19.

October 17th versus Minnesota: This will be the first game in a stretch of two back to back games on the road for Minnesota against what could be top 10 teams -- Penn State and Ohio State. Minnesota did not do well against tough competition last season and I don't see this season being any different. My prediction: Penn State 33 and Minnesota 10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Ohio State

Because of the strength of the Big Ten, Ohio State's feat under Tressel of putting up 4 straight 10+ win seasons has been underrated. But, the fact that it has been done allows us to give them a pass here even though they are only bring back 12 starters. Tressel has showed us time and again that Ohio State does not rebuild, they reload. Are the good enough every season to be playing in the BCS championship? So far over the last 3 years, the SEC has been the only conference to prove that point valid, but I don't think it is a great sin to be throwing Ohio State's name up there every year. Still, the Big ten is down and the best any team from this conference can look forward to is going to the Rose Bowl on January 1st.

Terrelle Pryor got thrown to the wolves last season in a baptism of fire. He proved at times that he belonged in the limelight of college football. He also had those times where it was obvious he needed more work and maturity. Still, you can't deny the fact that he is a very talented player and will likely have a better season this season. He's going to have to be good though as there will be a new look at RB and there are some questions on the offensive line.

Defensively, SOLID is the best word to describe Ohio State. Gone are the last of their star linebackers and there are no true "national studs" to tout in preseason. Still, this is an experienced team and they will perform at the top level we expect to see Ohio State teams perform at every Saturday.

Play-On Games:

September 5th versus Navy: I don't know what this line is going to be, but if it is not more than -14, I think it is a definite "play-on" spot. If it is more than -14, then i think the bet loses all value. I don't ever see an opening game at home as a "lookahead" spot as teams work all Summer for THIS game. So, even though USC is on deck, I think OSU is focused on this game. Navy should take a step back on offense this season and they are not good enough to be hanging with Ohio state. My prediction: Ohio State 35 and Navy 17.

October 10th versus Wisconsin: This is a bad spot for Wisconsin as they go on the road against Minnesota the week before and have Iowa on deck. Wisconsin gave OSU a tough game last season, but I think Wisconsin takes a step back . . . again, . . . this season, and Ohio State's offenses and defenses should be clicking by this game. Schedule plays in the favor of OSU here in a big way. My prediction: Ohio State 42 and Wisconsin 13.

October 24th versus Minnesota: This is the scheduled homecoming game for Ohio State and it is the second road game in a row for Minnesota after playing on the road against Penn State the week before. On deck following this game it doesn't get any better for Minnesota as they play Michigan State. Ohio State has an easy game on deck against New Mexico State after playing an easy game against Purdue the week before. My prediction: Ohio State 38 and Minnesota 12.

 

[SoonerBS]

Illinois

Ron Zook's teams frustrate the hell out of me as a gambler. Of course, if you ask the fans of the teams he coaches, they might respond in the same way. There is one word he his teams seem to have trouble with everywhere he has ever been -- consistency. After a 9-4 2007 season and a trip to the Rose Bowl, things really looked up for the program. But, then they went a disappointing 5-7 and didn't go to a bowl at all last year. And, there is no rhyme or reason to their wins and losses. For instance, they beat Iowa by 3 points one week and then got riddled by a MAC team, Western Michigan, the next week.

Still, with teams taking a step back this year in the Big Ten, Illinois should be seeing a year where they take a step up. Illinois will have one of the best offenses in the Big Ten. "Juice and the Crew" will consist of one of the best QB/Receiver situations in the FBS this year. Offensively, there are not many holes as this half of the team is a definite positive. Defensively though, they bring back only 5 starters from last year's team. The defensive line is considered the biggest question area as Illinois has had a history of only being sound against teams with weak offensive lines. IF a couple of players look to be fully recovered from last season's injuries though, the line should be strong enough to hold up against the season. The linebacking corps is athletic and the defensive backfield is experienced. The schedule gets a bit hairy the 3rd, 4th and 5th games, but if they can survive that and come out of it with two wins, they will likely be in control of their destiny. Illinois is a definite darkhorse contender for the Big Ten title this season IF they can be CONSISTENT.

Play-On Games:

September 5th versus Missouri: I am seeing some early lines of -2.5 to -3. I'm thinking there is a lot of value in this line if it really comes out at that price because I think Illinois wins this game by 7 points or more. Missouri has won this game the last two years because their offense was just too powerful for Illinois to hold. That should be the other way around this year. My prediction: Illinois 42 and Missouri 30.

October 3rd versus Penn State: Penn State will be coming off a home game with Iowa and this will be their first road trip of the season. Illinois has the personnel to beat a reloading Penn State team at home this year. Illinois could very well be coming off a loss against Ohio State and needing to rebound here for a chance to continue their championship hopes alive, OR they could be coming off a win and know they can't let their guard down here against last year's Big Ten champion. Either way, I think this is a better spot for Illinois than it is for Penn State. My prediction: Illinois 38 and Penn State 30.

November 14th versus Northwestern: This was one of those losses last year that left everybody scratching their heads. It was Illinois' last game of the season and Northwestern squashed their hopes of a second consecutive bowl appearance. This is Northwestern's third game in a row of brutal games as they play Penn State, at Iowa and here at Illinois. Illinois has Minnesota the week before and is staring at a bye-week following this game. My prediction: Illinois 38 and Northwestern 20.

 

[SoonerBS]

Iowa

While I do think Iowa has a chance to win the Big Ten Championship, I'm giving them a less chance than the three previously listed and Michigan State. I'm not a big Kirk Ferentz fan. I will however give him kudos after his team did a lot better last season than I thought they would. However, whenever you start talking about how good Iowa is going to be any given season, that is likely whenever they will disappoint you. They did go 9-4 last season though and a big reason for that was their defense. Their defense only allowed 13 ppg and 291 total ypg. That's impressive. This season the defense will be good again. They lose their top two defensive tackles, but the defensive ends should be even better. While the inside line might not be as stout, the linebackers are very good.

It's on the offense that we find the biggest question -- who is going to fill the shoes of Shonn Greene? Chances are that no one will, but the rest of the team could spread more of the responsibility around. Iowa needs for QB, Ricky Stanzi to contribute more in the passing game. Last year, he didn't have to do it, but this year he likely will. The cupboard isn't bare at the RB position as Jewel Hampton got some "mop up" duty experience last year behind Greene, but this year he will be expected to carry more of the load. They also have true freshman, Brandon Wegher coming in at RB and he was highly recruited by several teams across the nation. Still, whatever Iowa has to do, they have the talent and the offensive line to get it done.

Play-On Games:

September 19th versus Arizona: Some might try to make this into a "lookahead" game, but this is the first real competition either team will have played this early in the season, so I think the focus will be fully on each other. I like this play for Iowa for two reasons -- this is Arizona's rookie QB's first road start and this could be the best defense Arizona faces all season. I look for Iowa to be a short favorite here. My prediction: Iowa 24 and Arizona 14.

October 3rd versus Arkansas St: This game is sandwiched between a couple of strong conference games for both teams. For ASU it is likely the #1 and the #3 team in the Sunbelt conference. For Iowa it is Penn State and Michigan. IF Iowa is coming off a road loss against Penn State, and I think they will be, then this is a game where they let loose their frustrations. IF they are coming off a win against Penn State, this becomes a play on Arkansas St as their will likely be a "letdown" before their next week's game against Michigan. I'm calling for the former. My prediction: Iowa 41 and Arkansas St 3.

November 7th versus Northwestern: It seems there are several teams that owe Northwestern a good butt-whipping after last season's close losses to them. Iowa takes their team here. I know that Ohio State is on deck and it could be an important game for the conference standings, but I don't think teams will be able to overlook Northwestern this year again. This is the 3rd tough game in a row here for Northwestern and they could be pretty beat up by this game. Northwestern doesn't have the run game this year to take advantage of Iowa's weakness on the inside line. My prediction: Iowa 32 and Northwestern 10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Michigan State

I like the prospects of this Michigan State team this season even if there are still some "unknowns" to work out. For one, this is Mark Dantonio's 3rd season with this team. He has already worked wonders in his first two seasons leading this team to a 16-10 record. That was basically with what John L. Smith had left him which wasn't much. It is usually in the 3rd year of a program that a team starts showing some progress from a new coach, so it leaves this year's expectations running high. The second thing I like is that I wasn't impressed with QB, Brian Hoyer last season. His stats were not that great and I felt like Javon Ringer saved his butt from looking worse. Whoever gets the job between this season's competing QBs, Nichol or Cousins, it will likely be a step up in talent and production. Also, they will have 3 veteran WRs and a veteran TE to throw to. Finally, I like the fact that this defense (always known as a Dantonio trademark) is bringing back 8 starters and a host of experienced players for depth at every position.

Now, here's the down note -- last year's stud RB, Javon Ringer, is gone. Ringer racked up 1637 yards of offense and 22 TDs. That is hard to replace. Still, there is a bundle of RBs for Dantonio to find some help from, and with the likelihood of better passing production this season, a stud RB may not be needed as much as last season.

Play-On Games:

While I think that Michigan State will do well in conference and should win us some money along the way as well, these play-on spots are about finding some good situational spots in the schedule. Looking at the schedule the way it sets up, I don't like any obvious situations right now. Last season, MSU was 3-0 ATS as away favorites. Several of the games I kind of like are away games such as at Wisconsin and at Minnesota. But, for now, I'm bowing out on Michigan State selections.

 

[SoonerBS]

Michigan


OK, listen to this very carefully: Rich Rodriguez is a very good coach. Did you hear that? If you didn't, and you are basing all your thoughts on what you saw this team do last season, you could be losing out some easy money this season. Consider this, Rodriguez took over this program amongst controversy from West Virginia about his contract. It was a distraction for all parties involved including players. On top of this, he inherited a team that for years ran the power pro-style set offense and he instituted his spread offense used and ran at West Virginia. Because of his different style of ball play, and because several of the players were not recruited by Rodriguez to Michigan, there was a mass of transfers and defections. So, it was no wonder Michigan struggled last season. It was a learning season on both sides of the ball. Michigan did not lose 9 games because of a lack of talent, they lost 9 games because it was an adjustment period to a new coach and new schemes. NOW, also consider this, whenever Rodriguez took over the West Virginia program in 2001, they also struggled in his first year going 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS. The year prior to him taking over the position WVU went 7-5 SU. What happened? They had an adjustment period. What happened in Rodriguez's second year at WVU? They went 9-4 SU & 9-3 ATS!! You still listening? Good. Because the chances are that lightening is about to strike twice. Michigan's roster is loaded with highly recruited talent and they are now past their adjustment period and into the second year of RR's system. I don't think they are going to be as good as they will be in the next two years or more, but they will be good enough to win us some money. I hope you were paying attention.

Offensively, Michigan will boast one of the most improved offensive lines in the country. Aren't they pretty? Now place behind them a Rodriguez recruited freshman QB that will be a perfect fit for his offense -- a Pat White style QB -- who can run and throw. The RB corps is solid and will contribute a lot more offense this year than they did last year just understanding their roll better and running behind a more experienced line. The WR corps is not great, but they are capable. Fortunately, the offense does not solely depend on them. Again, there are 10 returning starters, and many more players that saw action last season, returning for the second season under Rodriguez's system. That is vitally important to understand.

Defensively, last season was disastrous. After allowing an average of 19.6 ppg last 6 years of Michigan's defensive history, last year's defense allowed an appalling 28.9 ppg. Whenever you are only scoring on average 20.3 ppg, you see how so many games were lost. This caused the DC, Scott Shafer to resign (he was likely encouraged to do so) and Greg Robinson was hired on. I think Robinson will do a much better job as DC than he did as a HC for Syracuse. The main emphasis in the offseason is just good old fundamental tackling. Again, the defensive side of the ball is loaded with talent, so getting back to fundamentals and working on physical and mental toughness will make them much improved over last season.

Play-On Games:

With the way Michigan's season went last year, and with the way they are flying in under the radar this year, I think we can win money on Michigan playing them every game this year. That doesn't mean they will win money every game, but it does mean that if you play on them every game, you will profit ATS at the end of the season. It will take some intestinal fortitude to lay money on them every week, but I think they are going to be a nice surprise for those who play on them this year.

 

[SoonerBS]

Wisconsin

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed the trend that is following Bret Bielema's tenure so far? Since he took the program over from Barry Alvarez 3 years ago, he has gone 12-1, 9-4, and 7-6. Is that improvement? I will say this, they'll likely have a better record this season, but it may not be because they are better, it will likely be because their schedule is wimpier.

Wisconsin returns 6 on offense and 5 on defense. Phil Steel erroneously lists Curt Phillips as a returning QB starter, but that is definitely wrong. However, he is projected to be the best pick for the job, but don't pencil him in just yet. Last year was a horrible year for Wisconsin QBs. there was plenty of mistakes and controversy to go around. It was Dustin Sherer that survived the year as QB and got the experience, but he was nothing special. That is why many have Phillips penciled in to be the starter this year even though he is a redshirt freshman. We'll see. The RB position should be good even though PJ Hill left early for the NFL. John Clay showed last year that he is capable and why he was so widely recruited. The offensive line is a concern to me. I know it is easy to say, "Wisconsin has always had good offensive lines and this one will come together, too." That may be so, but it may not happen, either. One thing that leans towards them being decent is the fact they, too, were high recruits coming out of high school. So, one would expect them to be good. Still, it sometimes takes time for offensive lines to gel and I look for that to be the case here with Wisconsin early in the season.

Defensively, Wisconsin didn't look like a typical Wisconsin defense. They allowed 26.5 ppg and 329 total ypg. This season they only bring back 5 starters from that squad which could be good or bad considering how you look at it. The main concern is the defensive line where they will be very inexperienced. The defensive backfield looks to be a bit stronger. The linebackers could be a strength as the coaches have come out verbally talking about how good they are this season. This side of the ball will need to step it up if Wisconsin expects to be considered in the Big Ten elite anymore.

Play-On Games:

September 5th versus Northern Illinois: NI was 6-7 last season which was good for a MAC team, but they lost most of their defensive players which were the strength for their team. They return 4 starters off last year's squad. While Wisconsin can take advantage against NI's weaknesses with their power running game, NI cannot take advantage of Wisconsin at all. I expect a line of near -28 and I think Wisconsin not only NEEDS to win this game big, they will win it big. My prediction: Wisconsin 32 and Northern Illinois 0.

October 31st versus Purdue: The toughest part of Wisconsin's schedule is over by the time this game comes into scheduling. The week before this game they have a bye-week. The game after this one is at Indiana. Whoever the QB is by this time they are well experienced and should be playing good along with all the other players on the team. The offense should be hitting better than it has all season and Purdue's defense should have a tough time against the run this season. My prediction: Wisconsin 44 and Purdue 13.

December 5th at Hawaii: I know this is an away game, but Wisconsin has always seemed to flourish in this game the last 3 times they have played it. The program seems to like the trip out to Hawaii and the players have played well in the past. I know that it has been 4 years since they last played this game, but Hawaii is a bad way defensively this year as they only return 2 starters and few lettermen. Wisconsin's power running game should have their way with Hawaii. My prediction: Wisconsin 45 and Hawaii 13.

 

[SoonerBS]

Minnesota

Last year, Minnesota went 7-6 SU and 7-5 ATS. A good season for a program who just the year before went 1-11 SU and 4-7 ATS. This year they bring back 9 starters on offense and 8 starters on defense and a whopping 54 lettermen. They have experience all over the team. That's goo, right? Well, yes, but don't get too excited about playing on them yet. Last season Minnesota started their season against Northern Illinois, Bowling green, Montana State, and Florida Atlantic. they won all 4 of those and were 4-0 going into their game against Ohio State, but let's state facts: those were not good teams. They got beat by Ohio state, but then went on to win their three next games against Indiana, Illinois and Purdue. Then, they dropped their last 4 games against Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa before losing to Kansas in the Insight Bowl. See a trend here? They won against the sorry teams and lost against the decent teams. In other words, the schedule made them better than they actually were.

This season the schedule is much different. After an easy opener against Syracuse, they play Air Force, California and South Dakota State in their out of conference schedule. Illinois is not going to be as easy as they were last year which leaves only Purdue as the only easy game left on their conference schedule this year. I am going to predict that they do not go back to a Bowl game this game. I think last year's success was nothing more than an illusion of what this team really was in ability. And, I think this year's schedule will expose them. Since Minnesota has already become the national media's sweetheart in preseason publications, we should use that to our advantage. Because of this fact, I am more likely to fade Minnesota this year than play on them. Still, there is one game we will play on them.

Play-On Games:

September 5th at Syracuse: Guys, Syracuse is in a very bad way. They are not only horrible, but they have also lost a lot of their personnel over the offseason that was projected to start for them this Fall. Even though this game is on the road, Minnesota should be able to do whatever they want to do against Syracuse. My prediction: Minnesota 42 and Syracuse 3.

 

[SoonerBS]

Northwestern

It's hard not to like Pat Fitzgerald who is entering his 4th year at Northwestern. Each season he has been there the team has improved. last season they had a surprising 9-4 season SU and 7-5 ATS. Even though they have gradually improved every year, they are still not getting any respect. Steele has them in his bottom 3 this season and other publications have them in similar positions in the conference. One reason is because of the loss of almost all their skill positions. They lost their two best RBs, their starting QB and their top 3 receivers. That is a lot of talent and offensive production to make up. However, Fitzgerald seems to fit whoever he has playing into his system and make them winners. I think he'll do the same this year. Kafka will start at QB this year and he has experience as well as talent at this position. In this system, whoever plays RB will likely be productive. The three wide receivers taking the positions over this year are experienced and capable. And, the good news is that the offensive line is coming back and will be providing time and safety while the newcomers grow into their positions.

Defensively, they bring back 8 starters off a team that did pretty well last year. They could be better, and they should be better. In fact, this unit should give the offense enough support to grow through the season.

Play-On Games:

September 26th versus Minnesota: By this time Northwestern will have 3 games under their belt including a road game against Syracuse. The new QB should be gaining some confidence. Minnesota will be going from what is likely a home loss against California, to going on the road to play their first conference game of the season. Northwestern beat them last year in Minnesota and they will likely do it here as well. My Prediction: Northwestern 21 and Minnesota 10.

October 31st versus Penn State: This game is sandwiched between a game at Michigan and a game on deck against Ohio State. It will be tough for Penn State to concentrate their full attention on Northwestern here and we will likely get to play on a home dog. Penn state is only 2-9 in their last "2nd consecutive game on the road" situations. My prediction: Northwestern 31 and Penn State 34.

 

[SoonerBS]

Purdue

After a coaching tenure that went back all the way to 1997, Joe Tiller called last season his "last season" and resigned. Now, stepping into his shoes is the new head coach, Danny Hope. We're not going to see a lot of changes in schemes on either side of the ball . . . that's the good news. However, this was a team that went 4-8 last year and brings back only 12 starters for experience. They do have 49 lettermen returning, but the QB situation will be very green with Painter gone and Elliot looking to take the reins . . . albeit for one whole year.

The defense is likely the strongest area of this entire team, but they are nothing special. I don't know what more Danny Hope could possibly do for this team that would make them better than the 4-8 record of last season. If he can, it is unknown to me.

Play-On Games:

I don't see any good situational spots to play on this team.

 

[SoonerBS]

Indiana

You know how I am in my handicapping tendencies -- I like strong offensive and defensive lines. Well, here I have it with this team (or at least as strong as weak recruiting can offer) and I don't like the team at all. It just goes to show, even though a team may have returning starters, it doesn't always make them good. This is the case with Indiana. Although they return starters on the lines that should make them better in these areas, they have no skill players returning. Kellen Lewis, QB/WR/and eanywhere else they could put him, was suppose to be their bright spot in the skill position this year that they could build around. However, in late April, Lewis was kicked off the team. Their went the final hope for a skill player this year. The offense introduced the "pistol position" offense this year. Without adequate personnel to run it, and with the learning period that is mandatory to happen, things look dim for the offense.

Defensively, Indiana returns 9 starters. Usually, that would be good news, but last year these same guys allowed 35.3 ppg and 432 total ypg. They can likely expect much of the same. Indiana should be the step-child of the conference this year.

Play-On Games:

No play-on games for this team.

 

[GoSooners]

BS...Like I stated in your other forum, I'll be going with Minnesota vs Syracuse if the line is under -14, which I expect it to be. I think most of the public will focus on how bad Minesota finished the year last season with 5 straight losses. And the GG's may not be heavily bet in this game because of that reason alone... Anyway I'll take mediocity from a better conference over a very bad team with a new coach from a weak conference. Marrone's HC initiation won't be a pretty one. Plus I'm hearing that the first few games for Syracuse is basically going to be a tryout period for starting positions. So winning won't be the upmost priority for this team early on.. That's how desperate things are for Cuse. They could end up being the Washington St. of 2009.

 

[SoonerBS]

BS...Like I stated in your other forum, I'll be going with Minnesota vs Syracuse if the line is under -14, which I expect it to be. I think most of the public will focus on how bad Minesota finished the year last season with 5 straight losses. And the GG's may not be heavily bet in this game because of that reason alone... Anyway I'll take mediocity from a better conference over a very bad team with a new coach from a weak conference. Marrone's HC initiation won't be a pretty one. Plus I'm hearing that the first few games for Syracuse is basically going to be a tryout period for starting positions. So winning won't be the upmost priority for this team early on.. That's how desperate things are for Cuse. They could end up being the Washington St. of 2009.

I agree, GS . . . .

 

[BigdaddyQH]

So you want Michigan +3 against Notre Dame? It is yours. You are going to wager on a team that has not won more than 7 games (7-5-1) ATS in the past 5 years, and who'se ATS totals for that period are 25-34-2. That spells l-o-s-e-r to me. There are a few good plays with Michigan. Play themat home vs Purdue this year. That is one of them.

 

[SoonerBS]

So you want Michigan +3 against Notre Dame? It is yours. You are going to wager on a team that has not won more than 7 games (7-5-1) ATS in the past 5 years, and who'se ATS totals for that period are 25-34-2. That spells l-o-s-e-r to me. There are a few good plays with Michigan. Play themat home vs Purdue this year. That is one of them.

BD, there are going to be some teams this year that if played every game, are going to win more games ATS than they are going to lose. There are many teams that do this every year, it is just a fact. If you have been reading my threads, I believe two of these teams will be Georgia and Michigan. I'm not going to get into a breakdown of which games they will win ATS and which games they will lose, I simply think playing on every game will bring a player a profit at the end of the season.

Michigan has been a loser ATS those seasons because they were still a team of dominance and a fan favorite, so they were grossly overvalued. After the season they had last year, I don't see them being overvalued in games this year, but I do see them being much improved and able to cover lines.

I like Notre Dame this year as well, but it may very well be that the dog cashes in that match-up. You play it however you want to, it's a free world.

 

[GoSooners]

The problem with the Notre Dame/Michigan game is I also like ND against the spread this year. So something has got to give in that game. As for Michigan, they went 2-10 ATS in coach Rod's first season. If a team has the right coaching, they CAN make a big ATS leap the next season. By that I mean maybe getting to 7 or 8 games ATS. I very seldom have seen a team make any bigger than a 5 or 6 game ATS jump after coming off a disastorous losing season. I would be a little surprised if they won more than 8. Michigan couldn't cover squat against anyone last season. But I think their improvement this year will come when they are made the dogs in their games. Where they couldn't cover last year they'll keep it within the number this year. But SU wins will still be hard to come by. I see at least 6 or 7 games where Michigan will probably be made the dogs in their games. And my outlook for Michigan is they will end up something like 6-6 SU on the season and 7-5 ATS.

 

[Delta00]

Absolutely agree with Michigan, I intensely watched their Spring game and was shocked at the improvement. The OL has made a huge turnaround. They are noticeably thinner, quicker and more aware of the system. The RBs are also an impressive crew at Michigan and Tate Forcier looked like he was making some great decisions.

The defense is missing out on depth in a few positions but I think they have enough players around to be good.

 

[SoonerBS]

The problem with the Notre Dame/Michigan game is I also like ND against the spread this year. So something has got to give in that game. As for Michigan, they went 2-10 ATS in coach Rod's first season. If a team has the right coaching, they CAN make a big ATS leap the next season. By that I mean maybe getting to 7 or 8 games ATS. I very seldom have seen a team make any bigger than a 5 or 6 game ATS jump after coming off a disastorous losing season. I would be a little surprised if they won more than 8. Michigan couldn't cover squat against anyone last season. But I think their improvement this year will come when they are made the dogs in their games. Where they couldn't cover last year they'll keep it within the number this year. But SU wins will still be hard to come by. I see at least 6 or 7 games where Michigan will probably be made the dogs in their games. And my outlook for Michigan is they will end up something like 6-6 SU on the season and 7-5 ATS.

The point I made in the Michigan preview though was that this is exactly the way RR started out at WVU whenever he took over that program. We like to use the expression, "History repeats itself," and it is appropriate to consider that here with Michigan because of the similarities to the circumstances present at WVU under RR. Michigan was "pooh poohed" in a big way last season by gamblers and supporters alike, so I think it's possible they will get some really good lines this year.

We'll see . . . .

 

[GoSooners]

The point I made in the Michigan preview though was that this is exactly the way RR started out at WVU whenever he took over that program. We like to use the expression, "History repeats itself," and it is appropriate to consider that here with Michigan because of the similarities to the circumstances present at WVU under RR. Michigan was "pooh poohed" in a big way last season by gamblers and supporters alike, so I think it's possible they will get some really good lines this year.

We'll see . . . .

I always count on good lines when a team loses favor with the public like Michigan did last year. We should see our share this season for Michigan.. I think coach Rod is doing everything right with this team. I just think it's going to be a little harder to repeat the huge jump his WV team made in their second season for the simple reason that he's now coaching in a tougher conference with more teams. In his second season, WV had a very favorable schedule that included a majority of losing programs when they made that leap. Although Michigan does have some easy home games this year, they still have to face Penn State, OSU, ND, at MSU and at Illinois. In just an 8 team conference his WV teams never had this many tough games in one season. Plus I still don't see a player that is close to Pat White's stature on this team. Which is essential for success of running this type of offense.. Pat White was to coach Rod as Vince Young was to Mack Brown. They were outstanding players who fit their offenses like a glove and made their coaches a success.

 

[SoonerBS]

I always count on good lines when a team loses favor with the public like Michigan did last year. We should see our share this season for Michigan.. I think coach Rod is doing everything right with this team. I just think it's going to be a little harder to repeat the huge jump his WV team made in their second season for the simple reason that he's now coaching in a tougher conference with more teams. In his second season, WV had a very favorable schedule that included a majority of losing programs when they made that leap. Although Michigan does have some easy home games this year, they still have to face Penn State, OSU, ND, at MSU and at Illinois. In just an 8 team conference his WV teams never had this many tough games in one season. Plus I still don't see a player that is close to Pat White's stature on this team. Which is essential for success of running this type of offense.. Pat White was to coach Rod as Vince Young was to Mack Brown. They were outstanding players who fit their offenses like a glove and made their coaches a success.

He didn't have Pat White in 2002 though whenever he made the big jump in success over the previous first year of his tenure there. This Tate Forcier kid is as close to White as he can find this season. He will not be White, but he may surprise some people this year in a similar manner to what Griffin did at Baylor last year. Supposedly though, Forcier can pass a lot better than White or Griffin could and can. But, it's all speculation right now until he is tried by fire in a real game.

I know that Michigan is unlikely to show the same kind of SU success that WVU did in their 2nd season under RR, but I do think Michigan can show some ATS success this year.