2009 Big East Preview and Play-On Games

[SoonerBS]

The Big East, after having some teams that have shook the BCS up the last several years, will be down in talent and power this season. IN FACT, it would surprise me to see a Big East listed in the Top 15 at the end of the season at all. Considering the results of this conference in the last 5 years, that should be surprising to us all. Unless there is a surprise, and there could be in this league, the top 2 teams look obvious and the last 2 teams look obvious. But, the other 4 could fall into any of the remaining middle places.

Rutgers

It was almost a coin flip between Rutgers and Pitt as to who would get this spot in my blog, but I went with Rutgers. Rutgers loses their all time best passer in Teel at QB, but let's face it -- he was Jeckyl and Hyde with the way he played. Do I think his replacement will do better? No, but he may not do any worse. Natale is projected to win the job over Lovelace just because he has a little bit of experience, but if either one of these guys goes down, there shouldn't be a beat missed. I think they will have time to grow and develop behind a completely veteran offensive line (and one of the main reasons I picked Rutgers for this spot). At RB, Rutgers has a trio that all come back from last year and gained all the rushing yards for Rutgers. My biggest question for this team is on their receiving corps. They lost 67% of their receiving production from last season and this is going to be the area where they need to find some immediate answers.

Defensively Rutgers loses 5 players, but only 44% of the defensive production. Also, there a couple of players who had to sit out last year because of disciplinary reasons, but they are back this year and could have started last season. In other words, they are only replacements in name only. This defensive squad that held their opponents to 18.8 ppg last year will likely have the same success this season if not better with the experience and talent that is coming back.

TOTALS NOTE: Watch for some UNDERS with this group, especially whenever they play against good defenses.

Play-On Games:

September 7th UNDER vs. Cincinnati: Rutgers will have a decent offense and Cincinnati will have a decent offense, but the fact is it is going to take a while for the offenses to get firing this season. Meanwhile, Rugers will be solid on defense and Cincinnati is going to be a lot better than their 10 starter loss indicates they should be. I look for the defenses to dominate in this early conference game opener.

September 19th versus Florida International: Rutgers will boast the best offensive line in the Big East and host the what could be the worse defensive line in the Sunbelt on this date. FIU's defensive line has been decimated by graduation and this will be their second game of the season and this will follow a game at Alabama. My prediction: Rutgers 38 and FIU 7.

October 16th versus Pitt: Rutgers and Pitt should fight it out for the top spot in the Big East this season, so this game is huge for both teams. The problem for Pitt here is that it comes sandwiched between a game with UCONN and a game following against South Florida. Rutgers has a bye-week previous to this game and a game against Army the next week. This game will be played on Friday night. With a short line and Rutgers being favorites, My Prediction: Rutgers 28 and Pitt 17.

November 12th versus South Florida: This is my "play on the home team in a Thursday night ESPN game" system.

 

[SoonerBS]

Pittsburgh

Here's another team similar to Rutgers in that they will likely be better defensively than they will be offensively. Still, they have enough experience coming back offensively to do be decent. One of the key offensive personnel that will not be back though, is the one they will likely miss the most -- RB, LeSean McCoy. My concerns for this offensive team is the RB and the offensive line. The RB problem is obvious with their leading rusher skipping out for the NFL, but the offensive line may not be so obvious. For one, they only replace one starter, so this is clearly a more experienced line, but it's also a line that allowed 32 sacks last season. Their run blocking is obviously better than their pass blocking. With McCoy gone, Stull will likely be expected to produce more from the passing game so the offensive line has to get better at protecting him.

Defensively, Pitt should be tough again this season. This side of the ball brings back 7 starters, but even that is deceiving as they actually have enough experienced players to have been starters themselves. Every unit should be strong and deep. This, despite the mediocre offense, is one of the main reasons Pitt has a chance to win the Big East.

Play-On Games:

September 12 at Buffalo: Here's another rare "road game" play. Buffalo is likely to be exposed the week before this game whenever they travel to UTEP. Buffalo lost all their stars from last year and will be breaking in a new QB, new offensive line and will have their same poor defense. The combination of new line and new QB could be devastating the first half of the season until they start catching on to the speed and familiarity of FBS football (if they even do this year.) I look for Pitt to control the line of scrimmage in this game and since they are playing on the road, we should get a decent line. My prediction: Pittsburgh 32 and Buffalo 3.

September 19th versus Navy: Not many teams are able to defend against navy's triple-option attack, but last year Pitt proved they can by holding Navy to 194 rushing yards and running up over 400+ total yards themselves. This season, Pitt will play against almost the same defense, but will defend against an offense that only brings back 4 starters. I think this is going to be a down season for Navy. My prediction: Pitt 38 and Navy 10.

November 14th versus Notre Dame: Last year, Pitt won this game in OT by 3 points. This season, Notre Dame could very well be ranked in the top 10 whenever this game is played and it could be worth a lot more to Pitt. I am looking to fade Pitt against Syracuse the week before this game because in the bye-week preceding it, I think Pitt likely practices on their game plan against Notre Dame. Following this game, it's another bye-week. It's almost like Pitt is singling this game out to put their attention on. Pitt could have 2 or 3 losses by this game, so I look for them to be short favorites or even dogs here which means this is going to be an upset. My prediction: Pitt 24 and Notre Dame 21.

 

[SoonerBS]

South Florida

Like I said earlier, I feel like South Florida, West Virginia, Cincinnati and UCONN can be almost interchangeable here. I'm going with USF though mainly because their losses look to be filled adequately enough. The losses that concern me the most are on the offensive line where they lose 4. But, 2 of the fill ins at starters this year come from JUCOs so they have college experience and 1 starter coming in started 11 games for Florida State. Two of the 5 new starters on defense are also JUCO players. Though I am always cautious towards JUCO transfers, I do think this can work for South Florida because of the talented stars left on the team. Offensively, QB, Matt Grothe comes back for his Senior season. He, along with RBs, Ford and Plancher who also return, made up for the majority of the rushing yards last season. If Grothe can cut back on turnovers (14 interceptions last year to 18 TDs), South Florida may be surprisingly better than I am predicting. After two seasons where they underachieved projected status, South Florida may be flying a bit under the radar.

Defensively, George Selvie is back along with most of the players that produced the majority of USF's defensive production last season. Of all that are gone, Tyrone McKenzie will be the most missed.

Play-On Games:


October 15th versus Cincinnati: This game falls in my "play on the home team on Thursday night ESPN games" system.

October 31st versus West Virginia UNDER: This matchup has traditionally been low scoring and UNDER the total. I see the same trend holding true this season as we have two offenses that should be run heavy and mediocre compared to their much stiffer defenses.

November 21st versus Louisville: Last year USF lost this game to a poor Louisville team mostly due to shoddy play and lots of penalties. IF Rutgers wins the previous week's game (and I think they do) then this is the game where USF lets go of their frustrations. This being played at home should allow USF to pour it on a Louisville team that could be in shambles with a coach that is ready to resign or get fired by this game. My prediction: USF 31 and Louisville 10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Cincinnati

I think Brian Kelly is the best coach in the Big East. I think last season proved that by taking a team that everyone thought was going to be middle-of-the-road and going 11-3 and winning the Big East Championship. This season looks to be an even bigger coaching job than last season's whenever you consider there is only one defensive starter returning. That is a bit deceiving though whenever you consider that out of 63 lettermen from last year, 43 of them return. Cincy has had good defensive personnel dating back even under Dantonio's regime (another good coach in my book). While the offense speaks for itself bringing back experience and depth for what could be the Big East's best offense, it's the defensive side of the ball we need to answer the questions about. All I know is what came out of Spring:

1.) New Defensive Coordinator, Bob Diaco, was hired to bring in a new defensive scheme that is a 3-4-4. Kelly was very impressed with the way the players caught on to it and the way they performed this Spring.

Now you know everything that everyone knows about Cincy's defense. My gut thoughts are that the defense might struggle a bit early in the season, but will likely turn out to develop into a good defense by season's end. Still, I look for Cincy to be heading back to a bowl game this season and they have an outside chance of doing it as the Big East champions depending on how the defense performs.

Play-On Games:

October 24th versus Louisville: It's really hard for me to play on Cincy any earlier than this game with the outlook I have right now because of the questions on defense. I don't see Louisville improving this season and this should be the time of the year that Cincy's new defensive personnel start to click good. Cincinnati has this game marked as their homecoming and it will be a great opportunity to let the offense go in front of the home crowd. My prediction: Cincinnati 42 and Louisville 12.

There may be more opportunities for play-on games as the season commences and the lines come out, but with Cincy's tough out of conference schedule, good play-on spots are hard to find here.

 

[SoonerBS]

West Virginia

There will likely be some WVU fans that will not like seeing their team placed at 5th in the conference. I tend to agree with Steel by actually tying them in 3rd or 4th place with 3 other teams. Still, this is not where WVU fans are use to seeing their team being placed. In fact, we have been use to seeing WVU in the Top 10 for the past 3 years in all the preseason polls. That's not going to be happening this year for good reason. The #1 reason is Pat White is gone and he has been a BIG part of WVU's success the past 4 years. The second reason, and I think equally as important, is the fact that they are rebuilding an offensive line this season. I think that is going to factor in big with a new QB no matter how good he may turn out to be. The third reason is Bill Stewart is still coach. I don't care what anyone says, Rodriguez was a better coach by far. In his last 3 seasons with WVU he had 11-1, 11-2, 11-2 consecutive seasons. Stewart still had Pat White, a good offensive line, Noel Devine at RB, and a solid defense last season and still only managed a 9-4 season. No offense to WVU fans, but Rodriguez would have probably been 11-2 or better with last year's team again.

OK, let's look at the positives: Jarrett Brown could be one of the best unknown QBs to ever play for a season. If it were not for playing behind Pat White all these years, Brown would have likely been starting and well known on the scene. I still think he is going to have to prove he can pass in order to loosen defenses up.

Noel Devine, in one season, made everyone forget about Steve Slaton. Devine ran for 1,338 yards and had a 6.3 ypg average. If Brown has good pass production, it will loosen up the running game for Devine. This would make for a very good two punch knockout against defenses.

The WVU defense gave up only 17 ppg last season and it is poised for a repeat performance. They lost only 4 starters and the replacements are experienced. This is one of the best defenses in the Big East.

Bottomline: IF WVU gets some consistent strong play from their new offensive line, they COULD win the Big East going away. But this is a big IF looking from July through the season. Another weak spot will be their kicking game after losing their standby kicker and punter from last season.

Play-On Games:

September 12th versus East Carolina: Last year we all know what happened, East Carolina upset WVU in this game and took the national light off WVU and on to themselves for about 3 weeks. ECU will likely be tough again this year, but this game is sandwiched for them between a home opener with giant-killer, Appalachian State and the following week with North Carolina. Although WVU has Auburn the next week, I think their focus is all on ECU here. Look for a short line . . . My prediction: WVU 28 and ECU 24.

October 1st versus Colorado: This is a play from my "play on the home team in a Thursday night ESPN game" system.

October 17th versus Marshall: There are some teams that just always absolutely dominate other teams. This in-state rivalry was only renewed 3 years ago, but it doesn't matter if we are discussing long ago series or recent series, WVU tends to win and win BIG. My prediction: WVU 48 and Marshall 10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Connecticut

The UCONN Huskies, who have been quite successful the last couple of seasons, lost two key skill position players off last year's team. One, the QB, Tyler Lorenzen, will not be missed that much. Let's face it, Lorenzen was not a good QB. There were several times last season the Huskies needed him to produce and he did not get it done (several of us ATS players needed him to produce and he failed us as well). The other skill position player, RB Donald Brown, will be SORELY missed though. Brown was the best RB in Husky history racking up 2,083 yards last year and over 5 ypc. It will be difficult for this year's team to make that up.

Zach Frazer will replace Lorenzen, but he failed to "wow" anybody this Spring. Todman and Dixon will likely share RB responsibilities, but it will be unlikely they will do as well as Brown. The WRs have not been anything special for the last year or in the Spring. Someone needs to step up in that spot this Fall. The offensive line brings back a lot of experience, but they are moving people around and it is yet to be seen whether they will gel early or late. On top of this, the offense is trying to learn a "hurry up" approach to the offense. That is good only if the players can implement it without making mistakes.

Defensively, UCONN was solid last season allowing less than 20 ppg. This season may not be as good. The defensive line has to replace 3 players and the backfield has to replace their best tackler. While the defense will be decent, it will not be good enough to help this team win tight games like it has in the past.

I'm counting a possibility of 8 to 9 losses for this team this season. If everything comes together and the new personnel plays better than expected, they could win enough games to make it to another bowl, but I don't think they will do it this year.

Play-On Games:

December 5th versus South Florida: Because of the way UCONN's schedule plays out and the way the team looks down this year, I don't see a lot of "play-on" opportunities. If UCONN hasn't given up on the season by this game, there is a possibility USF will be in a "let-down" spot after their game against Miami the previous week. UCONN is a young team, so "Senior Day" will not mean that much, but a win against a decent USF team should provide a little momentum going into the next season and USF's bowl should maybe be cinched by this game. My prediction: USF 27 and UCONN 24.

 

[SoonerBS]

Louisville

Louisville has struggled ever since Kragthorpe took over the job 2 years ago. Now, he is coming into his third year in what looks like a "make or break" year. Cards athletic director Tom Jurich told Sporting News Today's Dave Curtis last month that coach Steve Kragthorpe is "his guy", and "that he's not panicking despite growing unrest among a passionate fan base that got a taste of the BCS hierarchy under former coach Bobby Petrino." That is usually the "kiss of death" whenever an AD comes out in defense of a head coach. It is normally followed months later with a firing or an encouragement for the coach to resign. For us, we need to know the answer to the question, "Will Louisville be better this year, or will they be the same or worse?"

If you look at their Spring answers, Kragthorpe is not happy with the QB contest. Apparently none of the QBs he has is panning out to be a savior for the program. He has even gone so far as to tell his star RB, Victor Anderson, that he may need to carry the ball more this season and shoulder more of the load. That will likely mean some tighter defenses as they stack the box to shut the run game down and force Louisville to pass the ball. That doesn't bode well for the offense.

And, what can we say about the defense? This defense allowed 29.3 ppg last season and 369 typg. That's a lot for a conference known for tighter defenses. Not only is this crew likely to not be better, they could be worse with several holes to plug in the defensive line.

My prediction: Kragthorpe will not be coaching this team in 2010.

Play-On Games:

November 27th versus Rutgers: This game catches Rutgers in a "look ahead" spot with West Virginia. It is Louisville's final home game of the season and likely "final game of the season". This is a hard game to take right now because there is a good chance of there being a lot of "coaching" controversey going on around this time of the season, but I think there's a good chance Rutgers loses focus here in this game. To add to the motivation of the situation is the fact that Rutgers beat this team by nearly 50 points last season. I think we're likely to catch a nice "home dog" line here to bite on. My prediction: Louisville 32 and Rutgers 34.

 

[SoonerBS]

Syracuse

Syracuse had developed into a bad program before Greg Robinson got to it, but it was worse whenever he left it this past season. Nothing he did in the 4 years he coached there even remotely worked. Syracuse is a really BAD program.

In comes new HC, Doug Marrone and a whole new fleet of assistant coaches. Now, don't get me wrong with this next statement, I'm not necessarily saying it is a bad thing on down the road, but since Marrone has come on board, "Nine players on scholarship have left the team either before, during or immediately after spring football practice." These were not just disgruntled 2nd and 3rd teamers either, some of them were projected starters for this season. Now, let's put it in perspective: this was a 3-9 team last season, so the talent was likely not that good. But, first string talent at Syracuse is still likely better than what they had on the 2nd and 3rd teams.

Regardless of what I could tell you about the personnel, the fact is Syracuse is at least 3 years away of ever having a hope for a winning season. They may not even top the 3 wins from last season.

Play-On Games:

October 10th versus West Virginia: We're not talking about a major upsets with any of these games, but we are talking about the fact that Syracuse will likely be catching some big home points since most of their games will be played at home this year. I like this spot as a "letdown" spot as WVU comes off a big Thursday night ESPN game against Colorado the week before. Emotions should ride high for that game and be dumped for this one. My prediction: Syracuse 14 and WVU 27.

October 24th versus Akron: Syracuse gets this game after a bye-week and Akron has it sandwiched between a couple of conference games -- Buffalo and Northern Illinois. Akron beat Syracuse pretty easily last season and the intensity may not be there for this game this year. This sets up as a possible Syracuse win even though Akron is probably the better team. My prediction: Syracuse 28 and Akron 24.

November 7th at Pittsburgh: Even though Pitt has a bye-week before this game, the following game is against Notre dame. I think Pitt's concentration is going to be on the Notre Dame game in a "lookahead" situation that should give Syracuse another ATS victory. My prediction: Syracuse 17 and Pitt 21.

 

[Delta00]

Hard for me to believe in Rutgers after what they lost on offense. I don't care how lame Teel was, that was an impressive WR duo with underwood and britt.

South Florida definitely seems to be the best team to me. Really think their offense emerges after last years lame showing. After busting onto the national season as a soph grothe had his own "sophomore slump" in his 2nd year, and should return to being a very good QB. They battled a lot of injuries last year and if they can be somewhat healthy should be the best team in the league

 

[BigdaddyQH]

My group also picked Rutgers to win a wide open Big East. With such a wide open conference, it finally came down to the schedule, and Rutgers plays all of the Big East contenders (Cincy, Pitt, South Florida, and West Virginia) at home.

West Virginia is our pick for 2nd, becuase they have an underrated defense and returning starters at the skilled positions on offense except QB.

Pitt needs to find an offense. Stull is avereage at QB, and someone has to replace McCoy at TB. This team also must play consistantly.

South Florida is the model for inconsistancy. Every year they start the season off very well, only to tank in conference play. As well as this team has played at times, they have never had a season with less than 4 losses while a member of the Big East.

Cincinnati surprised a lot of people last season. They will not have that advantage this year. With 7 starters on offense returning, they will score, but the defense only returns 1 starter. That is not good.

Those 5 will battle it out for the conference championship. UConn will finish 6th, and will have to upset someone to get into a minor bowl game. The schedule includes a ome game against North Carolina and away games against Baylor and Notre Dame.

Louisville and Syracuse will battle it out for the cellar, and neither team has a lot to loook forward to. Loisville returns 9 on offense, but no QB, and a pourous defense. Syracuse starts the rebuilding this year, and get's 8 home games. They also play 3 Big 10 teams.

As far as "Play On" games are concerned, we like UConn over Syracuse, and that is it. Not much, but with a conference as wide open as this one is, it is a bit foolish to go out on a limb this early in the year.

 

[groundhog11]

thanks sooners....been waiting for this.....

im thinking the wvu/sfla winner will win it followed by rut in 3rd then cin 4th.....then pitt 5th....

 

[seanm0520]

As we continue to tweak our style of offense in WV, I really don't believe we'll miss much of a beat on offense. Brown is a much stronger passer than White and we got a butt load of top receiving prospects. Our offensive line also will fare decent enough against a relatively undersized defensive conference. Once again, our defense will be our main strength and there really doesn't exist one "frightening" offense in this conference.

 

[SoonerBS]

As we continue to tweak our style of offense in WV, I really don't believe we'll miss much of a beat on offense. Brown is a much stronger passer than White and we got a butt load of top receiving prospects. Our offensive line also will fare decent enough against a relatively undersized defensive conference. Once again, our defense will be our main strength and there really doesn't exist one "frightening" offense in this conference.

I wouldn't disagree with that if I believed Stewart was a good enough coach to get the offense "tweaked." I just don't know that he is. We'll see.

While researching the Big Ten preview thoughts, I came across something Ferentz said that intrigued me a bit. When asked how Iowa was going to move forward this year with Greene gone, he said something about figuring out what his players strengths were and tweaking the team schemes around their strengths. He certainly did that last year with Greene. Some coaches can do this, while other coaches have to try and tweak their players around to heir style of system (Rodriguez and Leach for example).

I don't know where Stewart fits in as far as his coaching abilities.

 

[seanm0520]

I'm not sure I want to find out, haha.

 

[fivestarjake]

south florida is on my list against cincy also. new dc got fired from cincy(although probably rightly so). espn,thurs nite,national televised audience...s fla will have something for that ass.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Right now the lineis Vegas is USF -6 1/2. I would jump on it except for two things. First, USF is notoriously inconsistant. For the past several seasons, they have folded like a cheap tent in October. Secondly, Cincy is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meeting with USF. You would think that -6 1/2 is a great line, but I am very hesitant with USF after September.