2008 Sagarin Rating NFL System

[FrankieCarbone]

Week one would have made the Cowboys a winner. That was the only play that fit the criteria.

Simple system to follow. Go to http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl08.htm

Then look at the weeks matchups. Subtract the higher rated team ranking from the lower team ranking. Then divide the point spread by this number. If it's 30% or under, it's a play.

Example for week 2:

Oakland at Kansas City. Oakland is rated 31 on the sagarin chart, and K.C. is rated 17. So you take 31-17 and get 14. The point spread is currently 3.5. Take 3.5/14 and you get 0.25, making K.C. a play for week 2.

Week 2 plays for this system will be:

K.C. -3.5
Green Bay -3
*Tennessee -1 ...Play at your own risk, I don't feel comfortable with VY right now. Will probably not play this one.
Chicago +3 - Last year small road dogs didn't do as well if I remember correctly, so careful with this one, although I will probably play it.
Washington-1
Indianapolis -1
Not gonna play N.E. with Brady out
San Diego -1


Still gonna cap these games and may remove 1-2 selections.

 

[Jetplane]

I kinda get the gist of it... but this would mean (i think) that if there was a line of approx 20 or more... it would NEVER be a play?

 

[Jetplane]

nm... ur taking the team rating... now the other one. I should try this with my system and see how it fares. THANKS buddy.

 

[FrankieCarbone]

Gonna get rid of the Tennessee and Chicago games, so I will play

K.C.
Green Bay
Washington
Indy
San Diego

Week one would have made the Cowboys a winner. That was the only play that fit the criteria.

Simple system to follow. Go to http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl08.htm

Then look at the weeks matchups. Subtract the higher rated team ranking from the lower team ranking. Then divide the point spread by this number. If it's 30% or under, it's a play.

Example for week 2:

Oakland at Kansas City. Oakland is rated 31 on the sagarin chart, and K.C. is rated 17. So you take 31-17 and get 14. The point spread is currently 3.5. Take 3.5/14 and you get 0.25, making K.C. a play for week 2.

Week 2 plays for this system will be:

K.C. -3.5
Green Bay -3
*Tennessee -1 ...Play at your own risk, I don't feel comfortable with VY right now. Will probably not play this one.
Chicago +3 - Last year small road dogs didn't do as well if I remember correctly, so careful with this one, although I will probably play it.
Washington-1
Indianapolis -1
Not gonna play N.E. with Brady out
San Diego -1


Still gonna cap these games and may remove 1-2 selections.

 

[Jetplane]

I've been looking everywhere but is there a place that actually tracks the ATS of the system?

 

[RJJM94]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it has KC = 20 (+3 for home) and Oak= 12

making 23-12 = 11 point line. Where it is currently a 3.5 point spread.

Using the rating number. I dont think you are supposed to use the ranking.

 

[Anastasius4]

I've been looking everywhere but is there a place that actually tracks the ATS of the system?

yeah i was looking for this too.. thanks

 

[RJJM94]

packers (23) @ lions (15.5 + 3= 18) = packers -5 vs current -2.5 *
titans (22) @ bengals (18 + 3 = 21) = titans -1 vs current +1 *
bears (25.5) @ panthers (21.5 + 3 = 24.5) = bears -1 vs current +3 *
saints (18) @ skins (20.5 + 3 = 23.5) = redskins -5.5 vs current pk *
colts (25) @ vikings (20.5 + 3 = 23.5) = colts -1.5 vs current -2
pats (30.5) @ jets (18.5 + 3 = 21.5) = pats -9 vs current + 1.5 *
chargers (24.5) @ broncos (23 + 3 = 26) = bronc -1.5 current +1.5 *


*indicates value

 

[Jetplane]

RRJM> Any other place that can verify whether it's your way or Frankie's? I thought it would be like your way... but since Frank did it that other way to begin with--I'm just totally confused!

By only having it go by RANK, the numbers would be off because the rank could be off by 10... but rating could be off by only .01--it makes a difference. Please show me other instances where ratings are used in place of what Frank did if you have them. THANKS!

 

[RJJM94]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl08.htm

sagarin explains it himself at the top of the website. check it out.

 

[FrankieCarbone]

Feel free to try and tweak this system, but in the past, I have done it just how I explained in the first post. Your basically looking for small point spreads to cover on mismatches found using sagarin's ratings. There will be times this season where one team will be ranked 20 spots higher, and the line is only -2.5. Usually from past experience these have a higher % chance of winning.

If you guys can come up with a better system that is similar to this, please let me know!

 

[FrankieCarbone]

Ahh, I see what you are doing here...from looking at this, I think I should get rid of the Chargers play and add the Bears as a play. I'm not gonna play the Titans because I don't trust the VY situation right now, and I won't play NE, because of Brady being out.

So going by this maybe the plays should be:

Green Bay
Chicago
Washington
Indianapolis - scratch this...not much value in this line.
Kansas City
Denver...Possibly?

...shouldn't KC also be a play looking at value here. I guess you could throw in Denver, but I really don't like that one looking at the trends between those two teams.

packers (23) @ lions (15.5 + 3= 18) = packers -5 vs current -2.5 *
titans (22) @ bengals (18 + 3 = 21) = titans -1 vs current +1 *
bears (25.5) @ panthers (21.5 + 3 = 24.5) = bears -1 vs current +3 *
saints (18) @ skins (20.5 + 3 = 23.5) = redskins -5.5 vs current pk *
colts (25) @ vikings (20.5 + 3 = 23.5) = colts -1.5 vs current -2
pats (30.5) @ jets (18.5 + 3 = 21.5) = pats -9 vs current + 1.5 *
chargers (24.5) @ broncos (23 + 3 = 26) = bronc -1.5 current +1.5 *


*indicates value

 

[RJJM94]

yeah the bears and the chiefs are going to be big plays for me this week.

 

[zedisdead]

You can also goto:

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com//prednfl.html

if you don't want to do all the math.

Sagarin's rankings are tabulated in spread form for you. Sagarin's numbers (see the column labeled "SAG" ) are the first in the handicappers list right next to the spread.

A Sagarin/Elo prediction is also computed for you there as well (column listed as "SAGP".)

The Cruncher lists his numbers there as well if they are available - see link on the page.

 

[Jetplane]

You can also goto:

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com//prednfl.html

if you don't want to do all the math.

Sagarin's rankings are tabulated in spread form for you. Sagarin's numbers (see the column labeled "SAG" ) are the first in the handicappers list right next to the spread.

A Sagarin/Elo prediction is also computed for you there as well (column listed as "SAGP".)

The Cruncher lists his numbers there as well if they are available - see link on the page.

RRJM said that CHI and KC were big plays for him. But on SAGP they are on opposite sides of the spectrum. I'm confused. One is a HUGE POSITIVE # and the other is a SMALL NEGATIVE #. ?

 

[ajreeb]

RRJM said that CHI and KC were big plays for him. But on SAGP they are on opposite sides of the spectrum. I'm confused. One is a HUGE POSITIVE # and the other is a SMALL NEGATIVE #. ?

I THINK this is why.
Chi is 3.5 dog, but SAGP line has them as a 1.82 fav. giving that play 5.32 points of value.
KC is 3 point fav, but SAGP line has them as a 13.24 fav. giving that play 10.24 points of value.

Or I could be completely wrong...

 

[zedisdead]

If you goto:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl08.htm

You will see 2 ranking systems: A purple "Ratings" listing and on the other end of the list a "Elo Chess" Ratings for each team.


"The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
NFL ratings will be updated after games of Sunday and again after the Monday night game."

"In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games."

2 Sagarin ratings for each team may mean 2 different prediction outcomes.

You have to decide which is the bettor predictor.

note:
-------------------

BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)

Winner: Sagarin Predictive

Some consider the true measure of a ranking system to be its record against the Vegas line. Jeff Sagarin’s
predictive rankings had the best season against the spread, with 151 wins against 107 losses. His winning
percentage of 58.5% is just behind the record of 59.0% set last year. The Computer Adjusted Line deserves
honorable mention; while it applied for less than a third of the games, it won 59.5% of those against the
spread. Overall, this was the best year against the spread in recent memory, as about 80% of the systems won
at least half the games against the spread.

source:
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/fb/nflawards07.html

--------------------------

However, it is important to note that this early in the season, any type of statistical predictor is filled with errors and bias......



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[Oak3]

Been looking for this kind of info for a while. Glad I found this post.
In my case more for College Basketball than Football.

 

[FrankieCarbone]

Looking like 4-1-1 with this system today, and with the cowboys last week, would be 5-1-1 overall.

 

[manchild]

Good post,would be nice if you guys keep this up!