2008 Election Model ... wo Fraud BO wins easily !!

[docmercer--banned]

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]2008 ELECTION MODEL[/FONT]
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
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TruthIsAll
<!--<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS,'Trebuchet MS';font-weight:500;font-style:italic;font-size: 8px;"><link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm|2008electionmodel.htm></span> -->
Updated: June 27

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[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image State Poll Aggregate and projection trend
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image National 5-Poll moving average projection
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Battleground state polls
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Electoral vote and win probability trend
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Electoral vote and projected vote share trend
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Undecided voter allocation and win probability
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Battleground state win probability
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

[FONT=Arial,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Trebuchet MS,Tahoma,'Trebuchet MS']"I'm glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list."[/FONT][FONT=Tahoma,Microsoft Sans Serif] — Sancho[/FONT]​

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[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma][FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

Last​

State
National
State
National​

Monte Carlo​

Simulation

Update​

Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
Win​

6/27/2008​

Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV
Prob%​

Obama
McCain​

46.8
41.9
47.8
42.6
53.6
46.4
53.6
46.4
365
173
100.0
0.0​

​

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</pre>[/FONT]​

​

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

10-Poll
Last Poll
Sample

NATIONAL MODEL

5-Poll Mov Avg

5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj

Trend

Rasmussen
Time
Gallup
Bloomberg
USA Today

Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC/WP

Date

6/26
6/25
6/25
6/23
6/19

6/18
6/18
6/18
6/17
6/15

Size

3000 LV
805 RV
2605 RV
1115 RV
1310 LV

896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV
--
​

Obama

49
47
44
49
50

51
45
48
47
49
​

​

McCain

45
43
44
37
44

36
41
45
42
45
​

Spread

4
4
0
12
6

15
4
3
5
4
​

Obama

47.8
48.2
47.8
48.6
48.2

48.0
46.6
47.0
46.8
46.2
​

​

McCain

42.6
40.8
40.4
40.6
41.6

41.8
42.6
42.8
42.0
42.0
​

​

Obama

53.6
54.8
54.9
55.1
54.3

54.1
53.1
53.1
53.5
53.3
​

​

McCain

46.4
45.2
45.1
44.9
45.7

45.9
46.9
46.9
46.5
46.7
​

​

Diff

7.1
9.6
9.8
10.2
8.6

8.2
6.2
6.2
7.0
6.6
​

​

​

[/FONT]​

The state and national projection models are in exact confirmation.
Obama leads both with 53.6% of the projected two-party vote.

If the election was held today, the Election Model projects Obama would win an expected 365 – 173 EV.

Obama leads the aggregate state poll weighted average by 46.8 – 41.9%.
Obama leads the national 5-poll unweighted average by 47.8 – 42.6%.

These key battleground states are projected to flip to Obama: CO, IA, NM, OH, VA, NC, FL, GA, IN

View the latest state/ national polling and corresponding popular and electoral vote projections below.

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
They need massive new voter registration and GOTV to overcome the fraud.

In 2004, Kerry easily won the True Vote. Bush had a 48% approval rating.
McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.

In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.

• But approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted (70–80%).
• The vote counts on DREs and central tabulators are unverifiable.

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The expected electoral vote is the average of the 5000 election trial simulation.
Since Obama won 4999 trials, there is a virtual 100% probability he will win the election.

The model executes five undecided voter scenarios (5000 trials each).
In the most likely base case, 60% of undecided voters were allocated to Obama.
In the worst case, 50% were allocated; he had a 52.4% share, 323 EV and 98% win probability.

Obama’s win probability in each state is calculated by the Excel NORMDIST function.
Input to NORMDIST is Obama’s projected 2-party vote share and the 4% margin of error.

• For example, in Florida, Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
  Obama is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51 – 49%.
  His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE)

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]The 2008 Election Calculator determined that Obama will win a 71-59m landslide (54 - 45%).
The model calculates the True Vote based on the following returning and new voter estimates:

• 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes, 2004 voter turnout in 2008 and estimated vote shares.
• The 2004 True Vote used the 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares applied to returning and new voters:
  (2000 recorded vote + uncounted votes - voter deaths) * 2000 voter turnout + new 2004 voters.

2004 Election Model Review
The model produced an amazing confirmation of the state and national models.

• Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
• Both assumed that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.
  The final national 5-poll projection average was 51.8%.
  The final national 18-poll projection average was 51.6%.

Election Model projections closely matched the exit polls:
The 12:22am National Exit Poll (Voted 2000 demographic) indicated that Kerry won by 51.4 – 47.6%.
Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan 2005:
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 51.8 – 47.2%.

The Election Calculator Model used 12:22am NEP vote shares applied to returning and new voters.
It determined that Kerry won a 67–57 million landslide, 53.2 - 45.4%.

2004 Calculated True Vote
12:22am NEP vote share

2000 Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%

Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Votes cast 125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7

Recorded Vote (actual) 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%


Unadjusted Exit Poll 51.9% 47.1% 1.0%
Deviation from True Vote -1.3% +1.7% -0.4%</pre>​

​

Election Forecasting Methodology
Two basic methods are used to forecast presidential elections:

1. Vote share projections based on the latest state and national polls
2. Projections based on historical time-series regression models.
   
   In the Election Model, state and national projections are based on the latest polls.
   Undecided voters are allocated to project the two-party vote.

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Overview
The objective is to calculate the expected electoral vote and win probability.
The win probability for each state is calculated based on the current projection.

For each of 5000 election trials:
In each state, the winner is determined by comparing the win probability to a random number (0-1).
The winner of the election trial is the candidate who wins at least 270 electoral votes.
The win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000.

2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls
The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.

Other links:
2008 Election Model

Confirmation of A Kerry Landslide
Election Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Excel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-2004
2004 Interactive Simulation Model
A Polling Simulation Model
2000-2004 County Vote Database[/FONT]



[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections
Undecided-Voter allocation effect on projected vote share, EV and win probability[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL[/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma][FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

Last​

State
National
State
National​

Monte Carlo​

Simulation

Update​

Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
Win​

6/27/2008​

Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV
Prob%​

Obama
McCain​

46.8
41.9
47.8
42.6
53.6
46.4
53.6
46.4
365
173
100.0
0.0​

[/FONT]​

[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

Undecided Voter Allocation
Obama​

50%​

​

55%​

​

60%​

​

65%​

​

70%​

​

Obama election trials
Win
Probability​

4916
98.32
4986
99.72
4999
100.0
5000
100.0
5000
100.0​

Projected Vote Share
Obama
McCain​

52.4
47.6
53.0
47.0
53.6
46.4
54.1
45.9
54.7
45.3​

Electoral Vote
Average
Median​

323
322
342
342
365
365
388
389
409
411​

Maximum
Minimum​

413
242
421
256
439
248
454
298
466
309​

95% Confidence Level
Upper
Lower​

374
272
395
289
418
312
441
336
455
363​

States Won
​

26

28

29

33

34
​

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</pre>

[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS[/FONT]

State Model

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation

Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to​

Total

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
​

​

EV
538

9
3
10
6
55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4
4
21
11

7
6
8
9
4

10
12
17
10
6

11
3
5
5
4

15
5
31
15
3

20
7
7
21
4

8
3
11
34
5

3
13
11
5
10
3
​

Obama
46.8 %

33
41
28
40
56

46
47
90
50
45

43
61
39
60
48

47
37
41
41
55

52
53
48
51
44

43
39
36
42
51

47
47
51
43
38

46
38
48
46
53

39
34
36
38
31

63
45
55
37
52
40
​

​

McCain
41.9 %

59
45
38
47
36

43
44
9
41
45

44
31
52
31
47

42
47
53
50
33

39
30
42
42
50

50
47
52
45
39

39
39
34
45
44

43
52
45
42
38

48
51
51
43
55

29
44
40
45
41
53
​

​

Diff
4.9 %

(26)
(4)
(10)
(7)
20

3
3
81
9
0

(1)
30
(13)
29
1

5
(10)
(12)
(9)
22

13
23
6
9
(6)

(7)
(8)
(16)
(3)
12

8
8
17
(2)
(6)

3
(14)
3
4
15

(9)
(17)
(15)
(5)
(24)

34
1
15
(8)
11
(13)
​

​

BO EV
328





55

9
7
3
3



4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10






4

15
5
31



20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

​

​

​

​

Obama
53.6 %

37.8
49.4
48.4
47.8
60.8

52.6
52.4
90.6
55.4
51.0

50.8
65.8
44.4
65.4
51.0

53.6
46.6
44.6
46.4
62.2

57.4
63.2
54.0
55.2
47.6

47.2
47.4
43.2
49.8
57.0

55.4
55.4
60.0
50.2
48.8

52.6
44.0
52.2
53.2
58.4

46.8
43.0
43.8
49.4
39.4

67.8
51.6
58.0
47.8
56.2
44.2
​

​

Probability
100.0 %

0.0
38.2
21.2
13.6
100.0

90.3
88.5
100.0
99.7
69.1

65.5
100.0
0.3
100.0
69.1

96.4
4.5
0.3
3.6
100.0

100.0
100.0
97.7
99.5
11.5

8.1
9.7
0.0
46.0
100.0

99.7
99.7
100.0
54.0
27.4

90.3
0.1
86.4
94.5
100.0

5.5
0.0
0.1
38.2
0.0

100.0
78.8
100.0
13.6
99.9
0.2
​

​

EV
374





55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10






4

15
5
31
15


20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10


​

​

Obama
9







Obama



Obama

Obama



Obama

Obama


















Obama

Obama


Obama












Obama




​

​

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
​

​

[/FONT]
</pre>[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]National Model[/FONT]

10-Poll
Last Poll
Sample

NATIONAL MODEL

5-Poll Mov Avg

5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj

Trend

Rasmussen
Time
Gallup
Bloomberg
USA Today

Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC/WP

Date

6/26
6/25
6/25
6/23
6/19

6/18
6/18
6/18
6/17
6/15

Size

3000 LV
805 RV
2605 RV
1115 RV
1310 LV

896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV
--
​

Obama

49
47
44
49
50

51
45
48
47
49
​

​

McCain

45
43
44
37
44

36
41
45
42
45
​

Spread

4
4
0
12
6

15
4
3
5
4
​

Obama

47.8
48.2
47.8
48.6
48.2

48.0
46.6
47.0
46.8
46.2
​

​

McCain

42.6
40.8
40.4
40.6
41.6

41.8
42.6
42.8
42.0
42.0
​

​

Obama

53.6
54.8
54.9
55.1
54.3

54.1
53.1
53.1
53.5
53.3
​

​

McCain

46.4
45.2
45.1
44.9
45.7

45.9
46.9
46.9
46.5
46.7
​

​

Diff

7.1
9.6
9.8
10.2
8.6

8.2
6.2
6.2
7.0
6.6
​

​

 

[koidog]

WTF? What a worthless post.

 

[docmercer--banned]

You dont like it .... go find another thread

Bottom line: unless this is 04 McCain is toast !!

 

[docmercer--banned]

Source: Boston Globe

Economy bodes ill wind for McCain

By Augustine Faucher
June 28, 2008

HISTORICALLY, ECONOMIC conditions have played an enormous role in presidential elections, even as other factors come into play. Economic downturns are bad news for the incumbent, while expansions tend to lead to reelection. Franklin D. Roosevelt unseated Herbert Hoover in the depth of the Great Depression in 1932. Boom times helped reelect Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1996. For all the money and time and effort that go into campaigning, the results of presidential elections often seem to track basic economic conditions.

My employer, Moody's Economy.com, has developed a model to predict the outcome of the vote in each state, based on economic conditions at the time of the election. The results forecast the Electoral College vote. And as of June, the model is predicting a big victory for the Democrat, Senator Barack Obama.

Most election forecasts focus on the national popular vote. But economic conditions often vary significantly from coast to coast. Our model takes account of state-level economic conditions, and thus can forecast the Electoral College results. What matters is the party, not the candidate: The model predicts the share of each state's popular vote that will go to the incumbent party - the Republicans, even though President Bush is not on the ballot - and excludes third-party and independent candidates.

The predictors include two economic factors: National inflation over the 18 months prior to the election and the change in the state unemployment rate over the previous two years. Higher inflation reduces the incumbent party's share of the vote. A higher state unemployment rate also reduces this share, with a 1-percentage point increase reducing the incumbent party's vote share by about 0.8 of a percentage point, for a total swing of 1.6 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/ope...

 

[koidog]

You dont like it .... go find another thread

Bottom line: unless this is 04 McCain is toast !!

The first post is Impossible to read. Secondly an election model in June that declares anything about an election is Nov. is meaningless.

 

[docmercer--banned]

Koidog:

Not in 2008

the 1st disct results in Mississippi and Hasterts disct are clear indicators

Obama has huge financial advantage
Obama has 4x the ## of foot soldiers
Obama is energetic
Americans will vote Christ out of Office at $5 gallon for gasoline

I follow the local results ... the underlying base has cracked wide open and
the Evangelical base is looking at Obama

I have warned folks for months on difft forums ... follow closely what is
going on in the local races ... the GOP is toast as the Economic situation
will lead to change

All Obama has to ask is what Reagan did:

ARE YOU BETTER OFF IN 2008 THAN YOU WERE WHEN BUSH TOOK OVER ?

Mcain bettors... they will lose as BO is going for 300 plus as he will carry Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Michigan, California

Blow the $$$ ... bet on McCain as this aint 2008 and Rove's "magic" is dead

 

[koidog]

And Racist wot working class Dems won vote for McCain.

I'm gonna bet there are a lot more of them than anybody thinks.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]2008 ELECTION MODEL[/font]
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
<!-- linespace -->
<!-- linespace -->
TruthIsAll
<!--[FONT=Trebuchet MS,'Trebuchet MS']<link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm|2008electionmodel.htm>[/FONT] -->
Updated: June 27

<!-- linespace -->

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image State Poll Aggregate and projection trend
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image National 5-Poll moving average projection
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Battleground state polls
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Electoral vote and win probability trend
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Electoral vote and projected vote share trend
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Undecided voter allocation and win probability
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Battleground state win probability
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Image Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

[FONT=Arial,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Trebuchet MS,Tahoma,'Trebuchet MS']"I'm glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list."[/font][FONT=Tahoma,Microsoft Sans Serif] — Sancho[/FONT]​

[/font]

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma][FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

Last​

State
National
State
National​

Monte Carlo​

Simulation

Update​

Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
Win​

6/27/2008​

Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV
Prob%​

Obama
McCain​

46.8
41.9
47.8
42.6
53.6
46.4
53.6
46.4
365
173
100.0
0.0​

​

[/font]​

[/font]
[/font]​

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

10-Poll
Last Poll
Sample

NATIONAL MODEL

5-Poll Mov Avg

5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj

Trend

Rasmussen
Time
Gallup
Bloomberg
USA Today

Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC/WP

Date

6/26
6/25
6/25
6/23
6/19

6/18
6/18
6/18
6/17
6/15

Size

3000 LV
805 RV
2605 RV
1115 RV
1310 LV

896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV
--
​

Obama

49
47
44
49
50

51
45
48
47
49
​

McCain

45
43
44
37
44

36
41
45
42
45
​

Spread

4
4
0
12
6

15
4
3
5
4
​

Obama

47.8
48.2
47.8
48.6
48.2

48.0
46.6
47.0
46.8
46.2
​

McCain

42.6
40.8
40.4
40.6
41.6

41.8
42.6
42.8
42.0
42.0
​

Obama

53.6
54.8
54.9
55.1
54.3

54.1
53.1
53.1
53.5
53.3
​

McCain

46.4
45.2
45.1
44.9
45.7

45.9
46.9
46.9
46.5
46.7
​

Diff

7.1
9.6
9.8
10.2
8.6

8.2
6.2
6.2
7.0
6.6
​

​

[/font]​

The state and national projection models are in exact confirmation.
Obama leads both with 53.6% of the projected two-party vote.

If the election was held today, the Election Model projects Obama would win an expected 365 – 173 EV.

Obama leads the aggregate state poll weighted average by 46.8 – 41.9%.
Obama leads the national 5-poll unweighted average by 47.8 – 42.6%.

These key battleground states are projected to flip to Obama: CO, IA, NM, OH, VA, NC, FL, GA, IN

View the latest state/ national polling and corresponding popular and electoral vote projections below.

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
They need massive new voter registration and GOTV to overcome the fraud.

In 2004, Kerry easily won the True Vote. Bush had a 48% approval rating.
McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.

In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.

• But approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted (70–80%).
• The vote counts on DREs and central tabulators are unverifiable.

[/font]​

The expected electoral vote is the average of the 5000 election trial simulation.
Since Obama won 4999 trials, there is a virtual 100% probability he will win the election.

The model executes five undecided voter scenarios (5000 trials each).
In the most likely base case, 60% of undecided voters were allocated to Obama.
In the worst case, 50% were allocated; he had a 52.4% share, 323 EV and 98% win probability.

Obama’s win probability in each state is calculated by the Excel NORMDIST function.
Input to NORMDIST is Obama’s projected 2-party vote share and the 4% margin of error.

• For example, in Florida, Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
  Obama is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51 – 49%.
  His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE)

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]The 2008 Election Calculator determined that Obama will win a 71-59m landslide (54 - 45%).
The model calculates the True Vote based on the following returning and new voter estimates:

• 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes, 2004 voter turnout in 2008 and estimated vote shares.
• The 2004 True Vote used the 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares applied to returning and new voters:
  (2000 recorded vote + uncounted votes - voter deaths) * 2000 voter turnout + new 2004 voters.

2004 Election Model Review
The model produced an amazing confirmation of the state and national models.

• Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
• Both assumed that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.
  The final national 5-poll projection average was 51.8%.
  The final national 18-poll projection average was 51.6%.

Election Model projections closely matched the exit polls:
The 12:22am National Exit Poll (Voted 2000 demographic) indicated that Kerry won by 51.4 – 47.6%.
Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan 2005:
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 51.8 – 47.2%.

The Election Calculator Model used 12:22am NEP vote shares applied to returning and new voters.
It determined that Kerry won a 67–57 million landslide, 53.2 - 45.4%.

2004 Calculated True Vote
12:22am NEP vote share

2000 Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%

Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Votes cast 125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7

Recorded Vote (actual) 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%


Unadjusted Exit Poll 51.9% 47.1% 1.0%
Deviation from True Vote -1.3% +1.7% -0.4%​

Election Forecasting Methodology
Two basic methods are used to forecast presidential elections:

1. Vote share projections based on the latest state and national polls
2. Projections based on historical time-series regression models.
   
   In the Election Model, state and national projections are based on the latest polls.
   Undecided voters are allocated to project the two-party vote.

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Overview
The objective is to calculate the expected electoral vote and win probability.
The win probability for each state is calculated based on the current projection.

For each of 5000 election trials:
In each state, the winner is determined by comparing the win probability to a random number (0-1).
The winner of the election trial is the candidate who wins at least 270 electoral votes.
The win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000.

2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls
The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.

Other links:
2008 Election Model

Confirmation of A Kerry Landslide
Election Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Excel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-2004
2004 Interactive Simulation Model
A Polling Simulation Model
2000-2004 County Vote Database[/font]



[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections
Undecided-Voter allocation effect on projected vote share, EV and win probability[/font]

[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL[/font]
[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma][FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

Last​

State
National
State
National​

Monte Carlo​

Simulation

Update​

Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
Win​

6/27/2008​

Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV
Prob%​

Obama
McCain​

46.8
41.9
47.8
42.6
53.6
46.4
53.6
46.4
365
173
100.0
0.0​

[/font]​

[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

Undecided Voter Allocation
Obama​

50%​

55%​

60%​

65%​

70%​

Obama election trials
Win
Probability​

4916
98.32
4986
99.72
4999
100.0
5000
100.0
5000
100.0​

Projected Vote Share
Obama
McCain​

52.4
47.6
53.0
47.0
53.6
46.4
54.1
45.9
54.7
45.3​

Electoral Vote
Average
Median​

323
322
342
342
365
365
388
389
409
411​

Maximum
Minimum​

413
242
421
256
439
248
454
298
466
309​

95% Confidence Level
Upper
Lower​

374
272
395
289
418
312
441
336
455
363​

States Won
​

26

28

29

33

34
​

[/font]
[/font]

​

[/font]


[FONT=Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS[/font]

State Model

[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]

State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation

Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to​

Total

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
​

EV
538

9
3
10
6
55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4
4
21
11

7
6
8
9
4

10
12
17
10
6

11
3
5
5
4

15
5
31
15
3

20
7
7
21
4

8
3
11
34
5

3
13
11
5
10
3
​

Obama
46.8 %

33
41
28
40
56

46
47
90
50
45

43
61
39
60
48

47
37
41
41
55

52
53
48
51
44

43
39
36
42
51

47
47
51
43
38

46
38
48
46
53

39
34
36
38
31

63
45
55
37
52
40
​

McCain
41.9 %

59
45
38
47
36

43
44
9
41
45

44
31
52
31
47

42
47
53
50
33

39
30
42
42
50

50
47
52
45
39

39
39
34
45
44

43
52
45
42
38

48
51
51
43
55

29
44
40
45
41
53
​

Diff
4.9 %

(26)
(4)
(10)
(7)
20

3
3
81
9
0

(1)
30
(13)
29
1

5
(10)
(12)
(9)
22

13
23
6
9
(6)

(7)
(8)
(16)
(3)
12

8
8
17
(2)
(6)

3
(14)
3
4
15

(9)
(17)
(15)
(5)
(24)

34
1
15
(8)
11
(13)
​

BO EV
328





55

9
7
3
3



4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10






4

15
5
31



20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

​

Obama
53.6 %

37.8
49.4
48.4
47.8
60.8

52.6
52.4
90.6
55.4
51.0

50.8
65.8
44.4
65.4
51.0

53.6
46.6
44.6
46.4
62.2

57.4
63.2
54.0
55.2
47.6

47.2
47.4
43.2
49.8
57.0

55.4
55.4
60.0
50.2
48.8

52.6
44.0
52.2
53.2
58.4

46.8
43.0
43.8
49.4
39.4

67.8
51.6
58.0
47.8
56.2
44.2
​

Probability
100.0 %

0.0
38.2
21.2
13.6
100.0

90.3
88.5
100.0
99.7
69.1

65.5
100.0
0.3
100.0
69.1

96.4
4.5
0.3
3.6
100.0

100.0
100.0
97.7
99.5
11.5

8.1
9.7
0.0
46.0
100.0

99.7
99.7
100.0
54.0
27.4

90.3
0.1
86.4
94.5
100.0

5.5
0.0
0.1
38.2
0.0

100.0
78.8
100.0
13.6
99.9
0.2
​

EV
374





55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10






4

15
5
31
15


20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10


​

Obama
9







Obama



Obama

Obama



Obama

Obama


















Obama

Obama


Obama












Obama




​

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
​

[/font]
[FONT=Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma]National Model[/font]

10-Poll
Last Poll
Sample

NATIONAL MODEL

5-Poll Mov Avg

5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj

Trend

Rasmussen
Time
Gallup
Bloomberg
USA Today

Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC/WP

Date

6/26
6/25
6/25
6/23
6/19

6/18
6/18
6/18
6/17
6/15

Size

3000 LV
805 RV
2605 RV
1115 RV
1310 LV

896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV
--
​

Obama

49
47
44
49
50

51
45
48
47
49
​

McCain

45
43
44
37
44

36
41
45
42
45
​

Spread

4
4
0
12
6

15
4
3
5
4
​

Obama

47.8
48.2
47.8
48.6
48.2

48.0
46.6
47.0
46.8
46.2
​

McCain

42.6
40.8
40.4
40.6
41.6

41.8
42.6
42.8
42.0
42.0
​

Obama

53.6
54.8
54.9
55.1
54.3

54.1
53.1
53.1
53.5
53.3
​

McCain

46.4
45.2
45.1
44.9
45.7

45.9
46.9
46.9
46.5
46.7
​

Diff

7.1
9.6
9.8
10.2
8.6

8.2
6.2
6.2
7.0
6.6
​

<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">Has anyone here read the entire initial post in the thread?
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">
<li style="font-family: Arial,'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma; font-size: 13px;">:wink: