2004 NCAA Football Insider Kickoff

[InsiderEdge]

August 28th is now less than 70 days away, which means only one thing – College Football is right around the corner! Insider Edge Sports does not wait until August 27th to look at the upcoming season. We have already been doing it for weeks and because of this research, we will once again dominate the gridiron. The other services can enjoy their summer off but our members know we are hard at work well before the opening kickoff. We will be updating our articles from a season ago to incorporate 2003 results. The list goes on and on but as per the norm with us, we will be sharing as much information as possible. As part of our summer long analysis, we will have answers to these and many other important issues heading into the new season:

- Who is already done for the season before it even started and how will it impact their team?
- Which coaching changes will show immediate improvements and which will take some time?
- What transfers will make an immediate impact for their new team?
- Who are some sleeper teams to look out for early this season?
- How will instant reply affect the Big Ten Conference?

Keep an eye out for all of these must read articles.

[This message was edited by The General on July 08, 2004 at 04:33 PM.]

 

[InsiderEdge]

The Significance of the Running Game – Updated

It’s never too early to break out those notebooks and start looking ahead to the 2004 football season. It will be here before you know it so don’t wait until the last minute to get the ins and outs of the upcoming season. Let’s start out by taking a look at some rushing numbers for the last couple years and see how good and bad rushing teams perform at the betting window. Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run as well. Putting these two factors together can produce some very positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. Lets take a look at our 2002 and 2003 results and show you how the significance of a solid running attack on both sides of the ball can produce some very nice profits.

We have our own formulas that rank the rushing offense and defense of teams which are based on yard per game (ypg), yards per carry (ypc), Td’s scored and allowed, power ratings and strength of schedule. At the end of 2002, our top 5 rushing offensive teams consisted of Kansas St. West Virginia, Penn St., Air Force and Nebraska, not big surprises by any means since all were in the top 10 in the nation in ypc. The same holds true for our top 5 rushing defensive teams (TCU, Kansas St., South Florida, Ohio St. and Troy St. as all were in the top 10 in ypc allowed). For this example, we will look at the top 20 on each side of the ball and see how noteworthy these stats can be when handicapping games.

Offensively, here is our top 20 with their final ORR (Offensive Rushing Rating) for 2002:

22.07 Kansas St.
19.37 West Virginia
18.68 Penn St.
18.58 Air Force
17.14 Nebraska
15.91 Navy
15.73 Colorado
15.12 Toledo
14.52 Miami Fla
14.24 Wake Forest
14.03 Boise State
13.87 Auburn
13.78 Bowling Green
13.76 Virginia Tech
13.32 Maryland
13.18 Iowa
13.14 Oklahoma
13.13 Alabama
13.01 Colorado State
12.62 Arkansas

Of these 20 teams, only Navy finished the season with a losing straight up record while only 6 of the 20 teams finished with a sub-.500 ATS record (Nebraska, Navy, Miami Fla, Wake Forest, Blowing Green and Arkansas). Overall, the 20 teams combined for a 179-70 record straight up and a 139-94 record ATS (59.7%). Even more impressive, these teams combined for a 40-25 record ATS (61.5%) as underdogs. This solidifies the maxim “Always look at the rushing dog”.

Now let’s look at the 2003 rushing numbers, listing the top 20 with their final ORR:

20.99 Minnesota
19.39 Navy
19.05 Rice
18.58 Texas
17.90 Missouri
16.39 Oklahoma St.
16.35 Kansas St.
15.67 Arkansas
15.32 Air Force
15.10 Louisville
14.51 Virginia Tech
12.70 New Mexico
12.69 Tulsa
12.36 Wake Forest
12.17 Nebraska
12.06 Bowling Green
11.96 Northwestern
11.54 Michigan
11.50 Auburn
11.49 West Virginia

Rice and Wake Forest are the only teams in the top 20 that finished below .500 on the season. Just like 2002, only 6 of the 20 finished with a sub-.500 ATS mark (Kansas St., Air Force, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Auburn). Overall, the 20 teams combined for a 160-79 SU record and 125-97 (56.3%) ATS record which is down compared to the prior year but very profitable nonetheless. As underdogs, they combined for a 40-29 (58.0%) ATS record.

Defensively, the numbers are just as impressive. Our top 20 and their DRR (Defensive Rushing Rating) in 2002:

1.51 TCU
1.64 Kansas St.
1.98 South Fla.
2.08 Ohio St.
2.64 Troy St.
2.83 Alabama
2.89 Washington St.
3.13 Southern California
3.23 Oregon St.
3.30 Utah
3.44 Notre Dame
3.44 Iowa
3.45 Boise St.
3.69 Oklahoma
3.94 Louisville
4.11 North Texas
4.12 Georgia
4.15 Washington
4.18 Penn St.
4.26 Arkansas

Two of these teams finished with a losing straight up record (Troy St. and Utah) while only 3 finished with a losing ATS record (Utah, Washington and Arkansas). Overall, the top 20 combined for a 182-60 straight up record and a 139-85 ATS record (62.1%). How did these teams finish the season as an underdog? A very impressive 35-16 ATS (68.6%).

Similar to the offense, the defensive numbers fell somewhat in 2003 but again they were moneymakers. The 2003 top 20 with their final DRR:

1.46 Southern California
1.54 LSU
1.55 Ohio St.
2.07 New Mexico
2.11 Boise St.
2.33 Georgia
2.48 Washington St.
2.60 Oregon St.
2.73 TCU
2.82 Kansas St.
2.88 Purdue
2.94 Iowa
3.04 Memphis
3.05 Auburn
3.23 Oklahoma
3.32 Miami (Ohio)
3.39 North Texas
3.41 Mississippi
3.50 South Fla.
3.50 Michigan St.

All of these teams finished with a winning record straight up with Auburn having the worst record at 7-5. Overall, the top 20 finished 186-52 SU and 128-99 (56.4%) ATS. As underdogs, they finished 29-22 (56.9%), which is less than last season but still in the black.

Not surprisingly, in 2002 the bottom 5 teams both offensively and defensively finished a combined dismal 31-91 straight up and 46-69 ATS (39.6%). In 2003, the bottom 5 finished 33-109 SU and 49-78 ATS (38.6%). Looking ahead to 2004, it will be difficult to predict which teams will fall into these top 20 categories. The secret is to watch the numbers for the first month and then see how the rankings look. You will be surprised how much value you will find in the numbers with these rushing and non-rushing teams.

Next up we will be looking at some of the significant spring injuries that your 2004 college football preview magazine will not have taken into account.

[This message was edited by The General on July 08, 2004 at 04:33 PM.]

 

[InsiderEdge]

10 Most Significant Injuries Heading Into Fall Practice

When you pick up your 2004 College Preview magazine, you will most likely see these names listed beneath teams as players who will contribute this upcoming season. Well, they won’t be contributing much. These are 10 you need to be aware of heading into August, as they won’t be around.

1. Adam Finch - QB - Air Force Air Force suffered a blow when sophomore Fitch ruptured the Achilles' tendon in his right leg. He was the projected starter after playing in six games while backing up Chance Harridge last year. He wasn’t as strong of a runner as Harridge was but his passing made up for it. Andy Gray moves into the starting role coming off a two-year layoff due to a religious mission. He’s definitely a step below Fitch and his inexperience will show, especially early on.

2. Tony Taylor – LB – Georgia Taylor will miss the season after tearing a ligament in his knee in the spring game. He will have surgery in early May and losing Taylor will be a serious blow to Georgia's defense. He started 12 games last season and ranked fifth on the team with 82 total tackles and one sack. Now Derrick White goes from being a key reserve to a key starter on the weakside. A big hole to fill.

3. Jeremy Van Alstyne – DL – Michigan Michigan suffered a blow when Van Alstyne suffered a knee injury during the last week of practice. "He's going to have to have reconstructive knee surgery and will miss the season," said coach Lloyd Carr. He played in only 10 games for Michigan contributing six tackles, two tackles for loss, one sack and one fumble recovery but he was going to play a big role in his junior season.

4. Craig Jones – OG – Wake Forest Jones, a starter in seven games last season, was dismissed from the team for an unspecified violation of team rules. It was Jones' second major transgression as he missed the first three games last year on a university-imposed suspension. His departure leaves the Deacons with only two returning starters on the offensive line.

5. Billy Henderson – RB – South Florida Starting RB Henderson suffered a torn ACL in his left knee during the spring and may be lost for the 2004 season. Henderson, a junior, had only eight carries for 34 yards last season but had moved into the starting position with a strong performance in spring practice.

6. Tommy Cook – SE – Kentucky Kentucky’s most experienced receiver Cook suffered a knee injury that could force to miss the 2004 season. Cook is the Wildcats' leading returning receiver from last season, when he caught 21 passes for 222 yards and one touchdown. As a three-year starter he has caught 63 passes for 796 yards and six touchdowns.

7. Antwan Stewart – CB – Tennessee Stewart, who was expected to start at right cornerback this fall, suffered a torn ligament late in the spring and had surgery after spring. Stewart, a sophomore who redshirted in 2002, will probably not play until late in the season, if at all.

8. Jeff Perry – QB – Central Michigan Perry, the starting quarterback in 2003, gave up football this spring. He suffered a severe knee injury last season but was expected to be back. Kent Smith and Grant Arnoldink, both listed as number 2 quarterbacks, will be fighting for the starting spot in the fall.

9. Brandon Johnson – DL – TCU The Horned Frogs' most experienced defensive lineman, senior Brandon Johnson, is likely to miss most or all of the 2004 season because of a knee injury. He finished last season with 31 tackles and 3.5 sacks in 8 games.

10. Ben Graniello – OL - UTEP Two potential offensive line starters for the Miners, senior Ben Graniello and junior Luis Espinosa, suffered knee injuries in spring practice. Graniello's career could be over after he suffered a severe left knee injury. He started 4 games last season.

Next up we will go over each of the 14 new coaches in 1-A this upcoming season and how their seasons are looking.

[This message was edited by The General on July 08, 2004 at 04:33 PM.]

 

[InsiderEdge]

2004 NCAA Football Coaching Changes

Coaching changes can have an immediate impact on teams while for others, it may take time for the new coach to make his mark. Here is our take on the new coaches for 2004 and whether or not you will see an immediate change or the same old stuff from 2003.

Akron - Lee Owens replaced by J.D. Brookhart

Owens had a 40-61 record during his nine years with the Zips, including 31-41 in the Mid-American Conference so things can only improve. Brookhart is coming over from Pitt where he was the Panthers’ offensive coordinator the last 3 seasons. He got his first big break when star QB Charlie Frye chose to return for his senior season so the offense should be explosive is they can find any sort of rushing game. The problem for the Zips may be Brookhart’s lack of experience as a decision maker since he has never, at any level, called plays. He will be a force in the future though as he is very well liked by players giving Akron some recruiting success.

2003 Record 7-5 SU 5-5 ATS Games at Penn St., Virginia, Northern Illinois and at home against Marshall and Miami Ohio will be very difficult to win so an improvement on their 2003 record is unlikely. 3 of their 5 ATS losses were as double-digit favorites as they allowed a total of 86 points in those defeats. The defense will be the cause once again to another .500 or below ATS mark because the presence of Frye will keep them over valued, especially in the beginning of the season.

Arizona - John Mackovic replaced by Mike Stoops

Mackovic finally got his walking papers midway through last season, which was long overdue after his players quit on him at different times over the past 2 seasons. In comes Stoops, who was the associate head coach under his brother Bob at Oklahoma, where he also shared defensive coordinator duties. Don’t be too stunned if Stoops comes in and turns things around right away. They are still very young so won’t be cracking the top 25 anytime soon but they expect to be a stronger defensive bunch to go along with an offense that will spread out the field. The intensity that he brings to the table can only help this team that finished in last place for the first time in school history last season.

2003 Record 2-10 SU 5-7 ATS There really is no place to go except for up but how far will depend on their 16 returning starters from last season that includes the core of their offense that showed signs of life near the end of last season. Their first 4 games are at home this year and while only 1 seems to be a definite win, pulling off an upset against either Utah or Wisconsin could carry them to a near .500 SU record. Home games against Arizona St. and Washington St. will decide that but an improvement both SU and ATS seem very likely.

Army - Todd Berry replaced by Bobby Ross

Taking over this struggling program will be a tough task for Ross, who will enter this season as the third oldest coach in all of Division 1-A. Although that may not be a bad thing. He has always had ties to the Military being a VMI grad and serving in the Army. Also, one of his sons graduated from the Naval Academy and another graduated from the Air Force Academy. Because all of this, he knows the spirit and tradition of the Army football program. The problem however is that the Black Knights have won a total of 5 games over the last 4 years and even though Ross may bring in a winning attitude, winning on the field may be a different story.

2003 Record 0-13 SU 6-6-1 ATS Even without winning a single game, Army was able to stay within the number 6 times. But they easily could have been much worse ATS as 5 of those covers came by a combined total of 17 points (2 by a half point each). Starting this season against C-USA upper echelon teams Louisville and Houston will either give this team a lot of character to build on or another disappointing start that could end in another winless season. Their two easiest opponents, East Carolina and Tulane are both on the road.

Central Florida - Mike Kruczek replaced by George O'Leary

O'Leary is taking over a UCF program battered by losses on the field and discipline problems off the field. The Knights had eight players, including four starters, suspended last season for various infractions. They were supposed to be one of the front-runners in the MAC title chase but they finished a very disappointing 3-9, their worst record since 1984. Kruczek was fired in November and didn’t even finish out the season. O’Leary brings in a troubled past after his resignation at Notre Dame 5 days after being hired due to lying about his past. While it may not the best character move, he does bring in a winning track record and he should have no problems turning this team around as they return 15 starters.

2003 Record 3-9 SU 2-9 ATS After preseason aspirations were quickly dashed last season, a new attitude is what this team needed. What they didn’t need is games against Wisconsin, West Virginia and Penn St. to start the season. Back-to-back road MAC games against Marshal land Miami Ohio might keep them from competing for an East Division title. They will win 5 conference games and with an upset or two, they could finish a minimum of 6-2. A home game against Northern Illinois could be the wild card.

Central Michigan - Mike DeBord replaced by Brian Kelly

This was definitely an interesting choice for the Chipewas who chose a winner over experience. Kelly takes over at Central Michigan after leading Grand Valley State to the past two Division II championships. He spent 13 seasons there and the Lakers were 118-35-2 in Kelly's tenure for a winning percentage of .767, third best among active Division II head coaches. He has never had a losing season as a head coach. Now the problem with all of this is the fact that in his 22 seasons as a coach, he has never been above the Division II level. Even though this is the MAC, it is no slouch conference any more and it will be a drastic change for Kelly. He isn’t used to losing and if the season starts slow, he might not know where to go.

2003 Record 3-9 SU 3-7 ATS Starting the season at two Big Ten schools will be something Kelly has never encountered before. The good coming out of that is gaining some great experience for their next 3 games, all of which are at home and two that can be won. They most likely will be 2-5 heading into the final 4 games of their season that come against 4 of the projected bottom 5 teams in the conference. Therefore, a winning record is not out of the question thanks to a soft schedule so an improvement from a season ago is in the cards

Cincinnati - Rick Minter replaced by Mark Dantonio

Dantonio helped Ohio State build one of the nation's top defenses and he will look to do the same in Cincinnati. The Bearcats are one of the few teams with a new coach that actually played well in recent years. Minter took Cincinnati to bowl games four of the past six seasons but had come under increasing criticism for failing to create a larger fan base and national profile. That should change right away. Success also shouldn’t be far behind as the offense should explode with QB Gino Guidugli operating behind a strong line once again. If Dantonio can turn around the defense the same way he did at Ohio St., it could be a surprisingly very successful campaign this year.

2003 Record 5-7 SU 4-7 ATS The season won’t start out very easy as the Bearcats open the 2004 season at Ohio State on Sept. 4. Going on the road to face Southern Miss and Louisville might kill any title hopes, but getting Memphis and TCU at home is a huge help. All the returning experience should pay off big time in close games hoping to reverse the trend from last season as they lost five games by a touchdown or less. A CUSA Title is not out of the question if they can get a couple big wins down the streatch against a brutal schedule.

Duke - Carl Franks replaced by Ted Roof

Roof was 2-3 as interim coach after Franks was fired Oct. 19th so he was the obvious choice, especially since he was the players’ first choice as well. Most likely, the 30-22 win over rival North Carolina cemented the deal for Roof. He has always had a strong defensive background including here at Duke where he sliced off 118 ypg allowed in just 2.5 seasons as the defensive coordinator. His lack of head coaching experience seems to be his biggest downfall but it didn’t seem to affect his at the end of last season when the Blue Devils won two of their final three games, a feat that wasn’t done since the first three games of the season. The players will also be playing 110% for this guy as well, something that wasn’t apparent with Franks at the helm.

2003 Record 4-8 SU 5-6 ATS The momentum from 2003 should carry over into 2004 even though their first 3 games are on the road. They start off with games at Navy and at Connecticut, certainly not easy games but games that can be won. The road portion of their ACC schedule is brutal with games at Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida St. The ACC home slate is easier but with certainly no gimmies. A 5-win season is not out of the question and an improvement of their ATS record should happen as well based on their 4-1 ATS finish from last season.

Eastern Michigan - Jeff Woodruff replaced by Jeff Genyk

Genyk comes over from Northwestern and brings 12 years of Big Ten experience with him. The big factor in this selection is the fact that he is a Michigan native and is very familiar with the recruiting area. Getting big names to come to the MAC is always difficult especially when the doormat of the league is beckoning them but Genyk is out to change that and bring the Eagles back to the top. But it won’t happen this season. What Genyk brings in recruiting ability, he lacks in experience as he has never coached or even been a coordinator at this level. The turnaround will not happen overnight for Eastern Michigan.

2003 Record 3-9 SU 6-4 ATS A 6-4 ATS mark isn’t horrible but they were getting so many points to bail out their offense that was 97th or worse in the 4 major categories. They scored over 20 points only 4 times but that should change as they move into a new spread offense. It’s the defense that will be looked upon to stop teams as they allowed over 31 points in 8 of their 12 games. They could start the season at 2-2 (Florida is not one of those wins), but victories after that will be few and far between.

Idaho - Tom Cable replaced by Nick Holt

Holt comes back to Idaho where he spent eight years in the Vandals coaching staff so he knows the surroundings and what exactly he is up against. 2004 does not expect to be a god season but remember that the Vandals play in the weak Sun Belt conference so anything is possible. Idaho has won only 6 games in 3 seasons so first and foremost Holt will need to retool the attitude of the team, players and everyone in the system. He is coming off stints at Louisville and USC where winning is expected every season so bringing that attitude in shouldn’t be too difficult.

2003 Record 3-9 SU 5-5 ATS What will be difficult for the Vandals is getting ready to play 9 road games this season. Their game against Washington St. is considered a home game even though it is being played on the Cougars home field so they only play 3 games on their own turf. A slow start is expected with their first home game not until October 9th but two of those games are winnable and the success, or lack thereof, their season could depend on those first series of games.

Kent State - Dean Pees replaced by Doug Martin

Pees left for greener pastures in the NFL as he accepted a linebackers coaching position with the New England Patriots. Martin was the offensive coordinator for Kent for just one season before being promoted to head coach. Martin made an instant impact on the Golden Flashes’ offense. In its first season under Martin’s system, Kent averaged 26.8 points per game, the second highest in the last 30 years, and scored 30 or more points in each of the final six games and did so in a school-record eight games overall. Nearly every major offensive category from 2002 to 2003 jumped last year under Martin’s tutelage. Expect much of the same this season.

2003 Record 5-7 SU 8-2 ATS The Flashes finished 6th in the country in ATS record last season so we don’t expect that much success again in 2004. However, with that offense, anything is possible. A huge boost is the reinstatement of QB Joshua Cribbs, who was arrested on drug possession charges. He will miss their opener but will return to action after that. He was originally going to miss the entire season. They should get more wins since they get the bulk of their defense back and will look to contend in the MAC.

Mississippi State - Jackie Sherill replaced by Sylvester Croom

The retirement of Sherill is the best thing that could have happened to this once powerful program. Their decline was fast and it may take a little time to get them back into the elite crowd of the SEC. The Bulldogs were 8-27 since 2001 with just three SEC victories. Croom brings with him 28 years of experience in both the NFL and college. He has never been a head coach, but has been an NFL assistant with five teams since 1987 and worked for Bear Bryant and Ray Perkins at Alabama and was on the staff during their back-to-back National Championships in 1978 and 1979. Coming back to college after such a long stint in the NFL might be a problem at first but Croom should get this team back on track.

2003 Record 2-10 SU 2-10 ATS If anything, the Bulldogs were consistent last season. The players obviously quit playing as witnessed by their last 6 losses coming by a total of 209 points (34.8 ppg). We won’t see that again this season but there might be some early growing pains. There aren’t any irreplaceable losses from last season and there’s plenty of developed depth for them to make some noise. They are benefited with 7 home games this season that include Tulane, Maine and UAB.

Nebraska - Frank Solich replaced by Bill Callahan

Solich had success at Nebraska but not the kind of success that was good enough to keep his job. The Huskers were becoming consistently average and a change was needed and are there ever going to be changes starting this season. Callahan will bring in a brand new offense that spreads the ball and there will be plenty of airing it out. It won’t happen overnight however. They will have problems with good defenses used to good passing offenses and they will have to rely on their defense to keep them in some of their games. If nothing else, it will be a fun thing to watch.

2003 Record 2-10 SU 2-10 ATS It’s possible for Nebraska to start out 6-0 if they can pull out big road wins at Pittsburgh and Texas Tech, two games that would have been much tougher in 2003. Visits from Western Illinois, Southern Miss, Kansas and Baylor should have them at 4-0 at home before the big part of their Big 12 schedule. Or the new passing attack will be a total bust and Husker Nation will be calling for Callahan’s head after just one season.

Nevada - Chris Tormey replaced by Chris Ault

Ault, the Nevada athletic director and the winningest football coach in school history, will return to the head coaching job for a third time to try to snap a five-year stretch without a winning record. The Wolf Pack are in need of a lot of things so Ault will have some trouble trying to get Nevada back to a WAC contender. The bar has been set higher now that Ault is back coaching and even though he has turned this program around 2 other times, the third time might not be the charm. A suspect defense with only 4 returning starters should keep them from a winning season but expect a lot of points on both sides of the ball so anything is possible.

2003 Record 6-6 SU 6-5 ATS They finished last season on a 1-4 ATS slide. The non-conference slate is sneaky hard going on the road to deal with good Mountain West teams San Diego State and UNLV. Home games with Sacramento St., Buffalo, Rice and San Jose St. are all winnable but the WAC is a difficult place to win on the road so the other two home games against Tulsa and Boise St. are very important to a successful season.

UTEP - Gary Nord replaced by Mike Price

The Miners went 14-34 the last four seasons under Nord, so a change was necessary and no matter whom they got, it would most likely be for the good. Enter Mike Price, a well-known name for obvious reasons and who should be coaching at Alabama right now. UTEP got a steal here and they will be contending for the WAC title in the very near future because Price can coach and he will get this team motivated. Price turned Washington State into a Pac-10 title contender and that was in a much more difficult conference. They will concentrate on defense first, then special teams and then the offense while Price has pieces to work with welcoming 58 lettermen to try and turn things around right away.

2003 Record 2-11 SU 6-5 ATS The Miners gave up an average of 44.7 ppg in their final 7 games from last season so defense is definitely the priority for this year. An improvement is almost guaranteed with 4 games on their schedule that they had better win (Weber St., New Mexico St., San Jose St. and SMU). The problem is that 3 of their first 5 games are very difficult and if they can pull off just one of those, it could trigger a big season.

In our next installment, we will be looking at transfers that will make an immediate impact for their new team.

[This message was edited by The General on July 08, 2004 at 04:32 PM.]

 

[InsiderEdge]

2004 NCAA Football Transfers Who Will Make an Early Impact

Transfers have had their year to sit out and are now ready to take to the field for their new team. There are a number of players who will have a positive influence early this season and Insider Edge Sports brings you the Top 5.

LB Anthony Schlegel - Ohio State

Schlegel’s transition from the Air Force to Ohio State will give him the national recognition he deserves. He was impressive in the spring and claimed a starting spot in the middle. In 2002, he parlayed 118 tackles into the All-Mountain West first team while he started all 13 games and became the first sophomore in school history to win first-team All-Mountain West Conference recognition. He was the first Falcon since 1997 to top the 100 tackles mark. Both losses in 2003 were ones in which teams ran right at the Buckeye middle linebacker successfully. Ohio St. expects that to change this season.

RB JaJa Riley – UNLV

Riley was one of the top running back prospects on the West Coast but never felt he got the opportunity he deserved in Columbus so he transferred out of Ohio St. and back closer to his home. Riley’s a powerful runner, who’ll try to kick start his career at a school that’s flourished of late with underutilized backs from larger programs. He will start the season third on the depth chart but that could change. An upright runner with good power, Riley could end up starting by year's end.

QB Chris Olsen - Virginia

Here is another Notre Dame Blue Chip that decides to leave the storied program. Despite being the offensive MVP of last year’s spring game, Olsen became disenchanted with Notre Dame and abruptly decided to leave the school. Olsen was a top recruit when he signed with the Irish, but did not play last season. Matt Schaub is gone and Virginia needs someone to step in right away. He doesn't know the offense like Marques Hagans does and doesn't have anywhere near the same mobility, but he has pushed ahead of Anthony Martinez for the number two job. A pure passer with a cannon arm, he could step into number one if Hagans falters.

LB David Richard - Missouri

Richard is not a natural linebacker but he should prove to be a force on possibly one of the top units in the Big 12. He ran for 654 yards and five touchdowns as a true freshman at Michigan St. but decided to leave school to get closer to home. Richard was projected to be the featured back in new coach John L. Smith's spread offense. However, instead of being the Tigers’ future in the backfield, he’s moved to the other side of the ball, where he’s trying to make an impact in year one. He's extremely athletic looking like a natural on the defensive side.

RB Wendell Mathis - Fresno State

Mathis’ emergence this spring, to go along with holdovers Dwayne Wright and Bryson Sumlin, gives Pat Hill the kind of depth and talent he so desires in the backfield. He quickly jumped up the depth chart this spring with his speed and quickness to be considered in the battle for the starting job. He is adept at running between the tackles and also catches the ball well and he also figures to make a big contribution on special teams. Mathis was seeking more playing time when he left the Bruins, and he should find it in the Valley this season.

Next time we will go in depth about the 5 sleeper teams who will turn heads this upcoming football season.

[This message was edited by The General on July 08, 2004 at 04:32 PM.]

 

[TheGeneral+]

Please do not post URL's in the sports rooms.

Thanks

 

[ElIguana]

Nice write-up, Edge. But it brings up a point on which I'd like to get some feedback from the RX posters.

"...Richard is not a natural linebacker but he should prove to be a force on possibly one of the top units in the Big 12 (Missouri)."

Where is all of this hype about the Missouri defense coming from? I keep hearing on radio talk shows and reading in preview material that this Missouri defense will be one of the best in the Big XII.

Excuse me? Without looking up any statistics, I recall a pathetic Kansas team racking up 38 points on this Missouri defense. OU scored 30 on them by halftime. Kansas State didn't even have to throw the ball, they just lined up and ran it right up the gut all night to chew up the clock and get the game over with.

I'm not a Missouri hater--I would actually love to see them compete for the Big XII title this year. The offense with Brad Smith had done some damage, but I don't understand where this defensive hype is coming from. It is in part based on new players, but IMO it is way too early to start calling this defense "possibly one of the top units in the Big 12."

Any other opinions out there?

 

[muffinman]

Edge,
Great Write-ups. It's good to start the brain flowing in College Football. You brought a smile to my face this during this dismal baseball season. I can't F----n wait for August.
Iguana,
Good point . I too remember a pretty mediocre/boarderline pathetic Mizzo Defense last year.
??????

 

[ElIguana]

Hey Muffinman! We're all chomping at the bit for football. As for the Missouri situation, I think every sportswriter wants to be the first person to sniff out new developments. Missouri & Brad Smith drew some attention this year by beating Nebraska, so I'm sure many writers are thinking that with an improved defense, they'll be in the hunt. So they find out about a few studs coming in on defense and create the hype.

Hell, if it were as easy as identifying talented recruits and transfers, Texas would win the national title every year! Again, I hope to see the Tigers do well this year....I just can't see their defense being one of the better ones in the Big XII.

Can you believe we don't have anything better to talk about than this? Sigh.

 

[InsiderEdge]

Thanks guys and excellent points. James Kinney is a stud at LB and it will be interesting to see how Harrington and Richard fit it. Stopping the run is key but with four All-Big XII candidates (Jackson, Ellison, Ville and mosley), they might be just able to do it.

******************

2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Rise
By: Insider Edge Sports

Vanderbilt Commodores

2003 Record: 2-10
2004 Projected Record 6-5

Overview

Vanderbilt has been in a rut for years but this could be the year they break out with a 6 win season and a trip to a bowl game for the first time since 1982. As a matter of fact, that was the last year they had a winning record so we are going out on a limb here. There won’t be a more experienced team in the SEC with 29 players coming back with at least three games of starting experience along with more than 50 letter winners. With the exception of a few backups, the entire two deep returns on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they should be able to match points with most of their competition. They return 10 players on the unit with QB Jay Cutler leading the way. Cutler is not well known but he had a very solid season a year ago and should improve again this year. His strong arm and running ability make him a duel threat and one of the more dangerous signal callers in the SEC. The Commodores scored 21 or more points 6 times last season, only the second time that has happened in the last 5 years. Offensive tackle Justin Geisinger was named to the 2004 Outland Trophy Watch List. Injuries have hurt the defensive side of the ball in past years so remaining healthy is a must for the entire returning lineup. LB Moses Osemwegie and DE Jovan Haye lead the way with Haye being named to the Preseason Bronko Nagurski Award Watch List.

Schedule

They should come out of the first half of the year with at least four wins in the first seven games. Games against Navy, Mississippi St., Rutgers and Eastern Kentucky are all must wins (or should be wins) and they must pull off an upset or two to get bowl eligible. The best options for that are a home game against South Carolina and road games at Kentucky and Ole Miss. Their 2-10 record from a season ago is a little misleading. They suffered some bad luck losing close games to Ole Miss and Georgia Tech while hanging around in losses to Mississippi State, South Carolina, Florida and Navy. Those close games need to be won this year and with their experience, they should be able to pull those out.

Best Chance For An Upset

September 4th – South Carolina

Summary

There will be no undefeated season or an SEC title for this squad, but they could be a dangerous team if everyone stays healthy. Experience could win them a couple games that they could not have won a season ago. Because of their 2-10 record from last year, they should get some value early on in the season and the points should be a plenty. An outright win over USC in their opener at home might not be as implausible as once thought.


Cincinnati Bearcats

2003 Record: 5-7
2004 Projected Record 9-2

Overview

This was a veteran team last year, and most of the squad should take that experience and benefit from it in a big way in 2004. One too many close losses last season (5 by a touchdown or less including four losses when the Bearcats held the lead in the fourth quarter) cost head coach Rick Minter his job. They were outscored by a total of only 15 points last season (305-290) and one or two more wins would have gotten them in a bowl game and Minter would most likely still be around. That is not the case however as Mark Dantonio comes in and inherits an excellent team, which is usually not the case for a new coach coming in. The offense should explode with QB Gino Guidugli operating behind a strong line and experienced wideouts. He is coming off a very disappointing season and that alone should fire him up for his senior year. Now is the time to prove to everyone that he can play at the next level. A healthy Richard Hall at RB will help balance out an offense that averaged 24.9 ppg last season, a number that should be surpassed this season. The defense needs improvement, especially in the secondary but they should be very solid up front. It’s possible that if the holes are filled, this could be one of the best stop units in the conference, as they possess one of, if not the best, defensive end in Trent Cole. Allowing 40 or more points three times cannot happen again this season.

Schedule

Starting off the season at Ohio St. doesn’t help much but Dantonio was hired away from the Buckeyes so he should be able to put together a very good game plan for the opener if nothing else. A 7-1 start is not out of the question but neither is a 5-3 start. Home games against Memphis and TCU will be very tough but they are the games they need to win to elevate themselves from good to great. Games at Southern Miss and Louisville in 2 of their final 3 games will likely determine the CUSA Champion. This is not an easy schedule by any means but it is one that they should take care of if their talent plays like it is capable of.

Best Chance For An Upset

November 6th – at Southern Miss

Summary

The Bearcats have all the makings of a title contender and as long as they don’t underachieve like they did a season ago, they should be right in the hunt. Guidugli will have to cut down on his mistakes while the defense will need to create opportunities for the offense. All the returning experience should pay off big time and those close losses from last year will turn into close wins. Because of the improvements on both sides of the ball, those close wins might turn into blowouts, giving us some easy cover wins.


Texas A&M Aggies

2003 Record: 4-8
2004 Projected Record 7-4

Overview

Dennis Franchione’s first season in College Station was a rocky one to say the least. A 4-8 record is not acceptable in College Station and it is imperative for him to turn things around right now. He has the experienced weapons to get it done now and those weapons must play up to their ability with QB Reggie McNeal at the top of the list. He passed for only a 51% completion percentage last season but he was banged up more often than not. A healthy McNeal can take this offense as far as he wants, especially with his great receiving corps and with Courtney Lewis in the backfield. The coaching staff is starting to reap the benefits of last year’s stellar recruiting class. After several of the incoming freshmen were held out of action during last year’s 4-8 season, Franchione was second-guessed at times. However, with a year in the system, many of those class of 2003 recruits are now holding down, or vying for, #1 spots on the depth chart. Amazingly, last season it was the defense that looked bad most of the time, something that the Aggie faithful are not used to seeing. The Texas A&M run defense turned surprisingly soft allowing 225 ypg and 31 touchdowns. However, defensive line is expected to be the most improved position on this year’s squad. During last year’s transition from the 3-4 to a 4-3, the Aggies had several players trying to play the DE spot, who were more fit at DT. Don’t expect to see opponents scoring 38.8 ppg like they did a season ago.

Schedule

This is still a young team despite the return of 14 starters that will need a few games to get everything together. Starting things off at Utah isn't the place to do that but they return home for 3 straight after that. Two of those games are against Clemson and Kansas St., both top 20 teams, so a win there will be a huge boost for the remainder of the season while two wins can go even further. The good thing is that 2 of their 4 Big 12 road games are winnable – at Iowa St. and at Baylor. Actually they are must wins since the Big 12 will be as tough as ever. They should be 6-2 heading into their final 3 games.

Best Chance For An Upset

October 2nd – Kansas St

Summary

The defense can only go up from where they were last season, how far up they go depends on how much the returnees learned from their experiences. They are getting in some talented JUCO transfers as well that should give the unit a boost. The wild card to their success or lack thereof is McNeal. If he remains as inconsistent as he has been thus far, he will not be starting for long. He has the talent to get the job done and we think he does it. If not, highly touted Stephen McGee will get his chance early.


Wake Forest Demon Deacons

2003 Record: 5-7
2004 Projected Record 7-4

Overview

This could be Jim Grobe’s best Demon Deacon team yet with as much returning talent as anyone in the ACC. They return 14 players on both sides with the defense getting 8 back. They hope to use their experience from last season to improve their total defense that ranked 107th in the country in 2003. A change to the 4-3 will help things before they even get started since there is more talent and depth to allow for it. They allowed 40 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games last year so the change will do them good. Offensively, it will come down to the play of the young offensive line. Normally it’s hard to back teams without experienced lines but all 3 of the new starters do have playing time under their belts and all are at least juniors. 302-pound junior Wesley Bryant is a transfer from Florida and his presence will be most important to a consistent line. They have a very big job. RB Chris Barclay is a back not many people have heard of but after this year, they will certainly know his name. He was slowed by an early ankle injury last season and was limited to 1,192 yards but if healthy, look for a huge season. The key on offense will be consistency with QB Cory Randolph needing to become a bit more of a passing threat.

Schedule

The Deacons have one of the most advantageous schedules in all of the country this upcoming season. After starting the season with two road games, which they should split, they return home to play 6 of their next 7 games. Not all 6 games are gimmies by any stretch but facing Florida St. and Virginia Tech at home rather than on the road is a big advantage. They finish the season at Miami and at Maryland but by then, we will already know if they are contenders or just pretenders.

Best Chance For An Upset

October 9th – Virginia Tech

Summary

With the new ACC starting this season (sans Boston College), the conference is that much more difficult and for someone like Wake Forest to win the title in next to impossible. But don’t expect them to just roll over for everyone either. Grobe has done a superb job in getting top players to come to Winston-Salem and now is the time to showcase that talent. While their record may not improve all that much from last year, their competitiveness will. They lost their last 5 games by 19.2 ppg – that won’t happen this year. Another team that should get good value early.


Penn State Nittany Lions

2003 Record: 3-9
2004 Projected Record 8-4

Overview

Now is the time for this program to get back to their traditional winning ways or it could signal the end of a great college football powerhouse. After back-to-back losing seasons in 2000 and 2001, the Nittany Lions looked to be back with a solid 9-3 2002. However, after going 3-9 last year, there are more worries. The talent is here for them to have a very successful season but the most important part of their season will come down to discipline. They were to get back most of their defense from last year but suspensions after the spring knocked their returnees down to just 4 on that side of the ball. New faces will toughen them up. The offense is the side that needs the most improvement and the first step has already been taken with a new offensive coordinator in Galen Hall. The offense finished 103rd in total offense last year and one would think with the loss of their receivers and backs, it might even get worse. Not really, as the incumbents possess more ability and talent even though they may be young. QB Zack Mills must stay healthy for the offense to click and pull together. The Paterno formula has always been to develop players who turn into stars by their junior and senior seasons, and that has to be the case this year on both sides.

Schedule

Not the easiest schedule to turn a team around with but not the most difficult either. They will be at least 2-1 heading to Wisconsin and Minnesota to start their Big 10 slate. Those two road games could be huge, as a split should propel them to a 6-4 record before their season ending showdown against Michigan St. They miss Michigan this season and 7-4 gets them to an ever-important bowl game. If they miss out on another bowl, things might be changing in Happy Valley.

Best Chance For An Upset

September 25th – at Wisconsin

Summary

This could be the season that saves Paterno’s coaching career. A winning season and a bowl game will ease some of the scrutiny while another losing season could spell the end of an era. It’s up to the coaching staff to get the players to play with pride while it’s up to the players to leave it all on the field. Apparently the coaches are doing their part since word from campus is that the players went through some of the toughest practices they have ever experienced during spring practices. Let’s see if they pay off with a big start to the season.

Our next installment will focus on teams heading in the opposite direction in 2004.

 

[RexFoster]

Very nice report. Thank you!


REX

 

[InsiderEdge]

2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Decline
By: Insider Edge Sports

Virginia Tech Hokies

2003 Record: 8-5
2004 Projected Record 5-7

Overview

Not only are the Hokies devoid of any real superstars for the first time in recent memory, they will be playing their first season in the much tougher ACC Conference. They ended last season losing 4 of their last 5 games and were once again considered a fraud at season’s end. That skid will run into this season with a sure first game loss against USC and countless difficult ACC battles throughout the season. The Hokies are an amazing 29-2 through October the last 4 years but it’s been the latter part of the season that has done them in. We have them going 4-4 before November this season with their only wins coming against Duke, Western Michigan, Wake Forest and Florida A&M. The defense, which has always been the trademark of this team, should be decent yet again but like past years, they will be the possibility of underachievement. After allowing 20 or more points only 2 times in their first 8 games (15.5 ppg), they allowed that total in each of their last 5 games (35.0 ppg) including 30 or more 4 times. They do have an exciting player in QB Bryan Randall and it will be up to him to give the offense enough explosiveness to try and outscore their opponents. If that doesn’t happen, it could be a very long season and that is the way we are leaning, as his supporting cast is very thin. Marcus Vick will be in the mix but not until his suspension is lifted.

Schedule

It certainly doesn’t get any easier with the move to a different conference. They replace UConn, Rutgers and Temple with NC State, Maryland and Georgia Tech. Lucky for them Miami made the move as well so they keep the Canes on the schedule along with rival West Virginia. To top everything off, they start the college football season with USC in the BCA Classic. The only good thing is that NC State and Maryland, along with Virginia are at home while they miss Florida St. altogether.

Best Chance Of Being Upset

October 9th – at Wake Forest – 1st true road game of the year and against an improving and experienced Demon Deacon squad.

Summary

What got the Hokies to this level was coach Frank Beamer thinking outside the box – special teams demons could win games, defenses that created mayhem could score points and dominate. That has been the case early on in the season against the cupcakes but not late in the campaign. A tougher all around schedule won’t help things but only 4 true road games does help. If they can pull off a couple mild upsets, they may go bowling yet again but it seems unlikely.


Colorado Buffaloes

2003 Record: 5-7
2004 Projected Record 3-8

Overview

It was a very difficult offseason for the University and the football team especially so how that plays out this fall is anyone’s guess. There is talent on this team but not enough that will turn them around from a very disappointing 2003 season. The schedule is impossible once again with only 5 home games on the slate. The key, as it usually is, is at the QB position and Joel Klatt. Last season, Klatt had good receivers to throw to but now the receivers are mediocre, so he has to prove he's the type of quarterback that can make everyone around him better. A tough task indeed especially with Jeremy Bloom unlikely to play. His loss hurts special teams a great deal as well. The running game won’t be the same as they lost a lot and it will be up to Bobby Purify, who missed most of last season, to pick up the slack. The defense should be ok but certainly not dominant. There's experience and tons of athleticism, but not much in the way of size. The pass defense has to become far tighter. The transfer of CB Sammy Joseph and DE Marques Harris is a killer. The spring season was different than what most teams went through as they went through practice not knowing whether suspended coach Gary Barnett would retain his job. That is a lot of valuable time that was not used at 100% and that will show come fall practice.

Schedule

After facing 10 teams who made it to bowl games last season, they face 9 teams this year who were in the post season a year ago. The strange thing is, they lost one of their two games against non-bowl teams in 2003 (Baylor) so nothing is a guarantee this season. We see just one certain win (home against Iowa St.). Everything else they will have to work for the victory and that includes games against Kansas and North Texas. Oklahoma is off the schedule but is replaced with Texas while an improving Texas A&M team replaces Texas Tech.

Best Chance Of Being Upset

September 4th – Colorado St. – This wouldn’t really be an upset but it won’t be a start they are looking for if they lose.

Summary

Adversity can bring teams together and pull off a number of surprises but it might be simply too difficult for Colorado to accomplish that. Their schedule is brutal and that will hold them back on any chance of improvement from last year. The Big 12 is becoming more difficult each year with most every team having the ability to win on any given day. Colorado falls into that category but for every upset they pull off, they will have 3 losses along side it.


Arkansas Razorbacks

2003 Record: 5-7
2004 Projected Record 3-8

Overview

About the only certainty at this point is that Matt Jones is finally the undisputed starter at quarterback after a solid spring but the loss of 18 starters from 2003 will be too much to overcome. Jones is the only guy returning on the offense that struggled at times a season ago. Jones will be operating behind five new O-linemen this fall and while the talent is there, the experience is not. The chances of the Hogs matching their 34 rushing touchdowns from last season are slim to none. This team will struggle putting points on the board and the coaching staff and fans will be holding their collective breaths every time Jones takes a hit. Perhaps no one player, in the SEC or the entire country, will mean more to his team’s success than Jones. If they lose him, forget even an average season. The defense is in better shape but not by much. With the loss of six scholarship defensive backs and all four starters in the secondary, Arkansas will have their hands full against the pass this season. 7 of their 11 games will feature better than average quarterbacks so the unit will need to figure things out right away. Jones will fight on every down but one player cannot carry a whole team and the rebuilding in Fayetteville looks to be inevitable.

Schedule

Arkansas should start the season 2-1 but after that, we see just one more win from this tough SEC schedule. There's a brutal mid-season stretch that could be even worse if Alabama and South Carolina are strong, while Texas will be looking for early payback in the second game of the season. Their 4 conference home games – Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and LSU – will be one of the most difficult home schedules in the whole conference. Mississippi St. looks to be the only game won in the second half but even that is no guarantee.

Best Chance Of Being Upset

September 25th – Alabama – This is their first conference home game and Alabama could be a surprise in the SEC this season.

Summary

The Hogs won’t be bowling this year unless Matt Jones CAN carry the whole team on his shoulders. It won’t happen but expect 110% from this kid and 110% from most everyone but it just won’t be enough. This team has lost 20 games over the past 4 years so there never was any serious threat in the conference but the expectations were much higher back then. No one expects much from them this season and while that helps some teams as far as pressure goes, there are too many holes for them to have a successful 2004.


New Mexico Lobos

2003 Record: 8-5
2004 Projected Record 4-7

Overview

We had the Lobos in our Teams on the Rise list in 2003 but that won’t be the case this season. After increasing its win total in each of the past five seasons, New Mexico will be hard-pressed to eclipse last year's 8-5 record. Add to that having to replace 23 seniors from the most veteran team in school history and that spells a decline for sure. The running game will once again be the strength of the offense but replacing QB Casey Kelly will be no easy task. Kelly didn’t light up the stat sheets but he was consistent and he didn’t make the mistakes that so often hurt teams. Kole McKamey will take over and while he is more mobile than Kelly was, his accuracy is lacking. Teams will crowd the box against this offense in order to stop the run and should find some success. No matter how big this line is, they can’t block 8 defenders. The defense was up and down all season last year and that trend should continue again in 2004, as they will face some high-powered attacks. They allowed 30 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games in 2003 after a great start. Their secondary is very thin in the middle and they have to replace three All-Mountain West Conference players on the line. It could be worse, but it could be a whole lot better also.

Schedule

The Mountain West isn’t the toughest conference in the country but parity is evident so the Lobos will have a tough time coming close to their 5-2 conference mark from a season ago. They could easily be 0-3 and even 1-6 before they know it. The only more than possible win is at New Mexico St. but the Aggies are looking tougher than ever so that isn’t a given either. Starting the season against Washington St., Texas Tech and Oregon St. should toughen them up for conference play but it might also do bad things to the young psyches of the newcomers.

Best Chance Of Being Upset

September 25th – New Mexico St. – Coming into this game 0-3 and with the Aggies smelling a bowl, this will be a toughie for the Lobos.

Summary

The run had to end sometime for New Mexico. After reeling off better and better seasons the last 5 years, they are headed for some disappointment this year. They started last year 1-3 and finished the regular season 7-1 so anything can happen but it was the veterans that led them to regroup the way they did. They don’t have that luxury this season. Coach Rocky Long has put together a very successful program after years of adversity. If McKamey comes along quicker than expected, another shot at the MWC Title is possible but it’s unlikely.


Akron Zips

2003 Record: 7-5
2004 Projected Record 3-8

Overview

Usually a coaching change follows several years of bad play but in the case of Akron, it’s just the opposite. The Zips won 23 games the past 4 seasons but that wasn’t good enough to save the job of Lee Owens. Enter new head coach J.D. Brookhart, coming over from Pittsburgh where he served as the Panthers offensive coordinator for 3 years. Brookhart brings in respect right away but what he doesn’t bring in is experience. He has never been a head coach at any level nor has he ever called any plays. He has the luxury of having Charlie Frye at QB so the offense will be just fine once again as long as they can find a running game to compliment Frye. Scoring points won’t be the problem but outscoring opponents will be. The defense expects to be just as bad if not worse than last season. They return 6 starters from the 81st ranked defense in the country from a season ago and no one returns in the secondary that was the best part of their stop unit in 2003. Inconsistency will remain as the Zips never seemed to be able to come up with the really big stop, especially in the red zone, and now things could be much worse with a very green back seven and little size up front. They allowed 160 (32 ppg) points in their final 5 games last year and expect that to continue heading into this year.

Schedule

Four of their first 5 games this season are on the road so a quick start to get them going is not in the cards. Three of those games are almost certain losses (at Penn St., at Virginia and at Northern Illinois) with a marginal game at Kent St. The rest of the MAC schedule isn’t horrible as they get a break with Marshall and Miami both being at home, however they will most likely go 0-2 in those games. Home games against Buffalo and Ball St. are the likely MAC wins with everything else being up in the air.

Best Chance Of Being Upset

September 11th Middle Tennessee St. – The Blue Raiders won’t be scaring many teams but this game falls in-between a Penn St. and Virginia road sandwich so the Zips better be careful.

Summary

A new coach should bring in some renewed enthusiasm but he isn’t bringing in any players that can help the defense. Akron was 10th in the MAC, allowing 404 ypg last year and if they don’t tighten up, all of their games will turn into track meets. Over half of the players on their two deep depth chart are either freshmen or sophomores. Akron games will be fun to watch but if you are a Zips fan, the outcomes likely won’t be in your favor.

Next up we will be looking at some of the rules changes, instant replay arguments and BCS discussions along with other handicapping advise heading into the fall.

Brought to you by Insider Edge Sports, listed as one of the World’s Best Handicappers by the Professional Handicappers League.

 

[truelyhandicapping]