RJBell
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Hey guys - have been a Rx forum reader for years. There is much insight offered on these boards! Would be interested in your feedback on my most recent article - thanks - RJ
Adding to your Bracket IQ - by RJ Bell
On the surface every #1 seed looks strong – that’s why they're top seeds. But you’re not going to win your pool without scoring with some surprises. Let’s take a look at how #1 seeds have historically done:
(All stats are since 1985, the year the Big Dance became a 64 team tournament. All results are straight up with no consideration for point spread.)
Number of Final Four teams that were #1 seeds in a given year:
All 4: zero times
3 of 4: three times
2 of 4: nine times
1 of 4: eight times
0 of 4: zero times
Very interesting . . . never all four, but never none – one or two 17 of the last 20 years! Considering that picking upsets wins bracket pools, the numbers advice advancing only one #1 to the semi-finals in your bracket.
Which one? Key fact to consider: Of the 80 Final Four teams in our sample, 26 failed to meet ALL of the following conditions:
+ Made tourney the prior year
+ Had a preseason AP All-American
+ Beat opponents by an average of 10+ points a game.
+ Got at least 30% of scoring from their front court (forwards and centers)
Stunningly, only 4 of those 26 teams that failed to meet ALL the above conditions made the Final Four! 30 of 54 teams who did meet these conditions did make the Final Four!
But don’t count on #1 seeds falling easily:
80-0 in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round
68 of 80 (85%) make it to the Sweet 16.
56 of 68 (70%) make it to the Elite 8!
In the Elite 8, #1s are only 20-19 to win that next game to reach the Final Four when playing a #2 or #3 seeds. When playing any other seed lower than 3, the #1s have won 14 of 17 games to reach the Final Four.
Of the 222 times top seeds have played #5 seeds or lower, those lower seeds have won only 21 times (that’s over 90% winners for the #1s when playing a significantly lower seed)
Which leads to a key point – seemingly upset worthy #8 and #9 seeds inevitably must face a #1 in the 2nd round, severely decreasing the likelihood of advancing as far as even the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round.
#2 seeds are 76-4 in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round; but #2 are only 16-13 in the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> round vs. #10 seeds.
#3 seeds are 67-13 in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round – but less than 50% make it to the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round!
#4 seeds are 64-16 in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round – but less than 50% make it to the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round!
At least one #12 seed has beaten a #5 in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round every year but one since 1988.
Seeds #13 or worse win less than 14% of games played, making them extreme long shot picks to win even a single game.
Which leaves 10, 11, and 12 seeds as prime Cinderella candidates – when they win in round 1, these sleepers are a surprising 39-43 to win in the 2nd round and move on to the Sweet 16.
The Elite 8 is where the big upsets usually end. 26 times in this round big underdogs (defined by being 4 or more seeds worse) have faced favorites, winning only 4 times (15%).
Seeds of 80 Final Fours teams of the last 20 years:
#1: 34
#2: 18
#3: 11
#4: 7
#5: 3
#6: 3
#8: 3
#1: 1
88% of Final Four teams come from the top 3 seeds!
Only once has a lower than #8 made the Final Four!
Of the last 20 champions, 11 were #1 seeds.
Don’t believe the myth that the Mid-Major conferences are closing the gap with the big boys – in the last 5 years, these conferences have:
+ sent less teams to the dance
+ with a lower average seed
+ won a lower percentage of games
than in ANY other 5 year period of the last 20 years.
The gap between the super conferences and mid-Majors is widening.
Important game factors to keep in mind when picking winners:
Experience of both the players and the coach in the Big Dance - The more the better.
How the team did on the road during the season – Tournament games are road games.
Home court fan advantage for certain teams in certain rounds.
Ignore bench depth – over the last 5 years, Final Four teams have gotten over 80% of their points from their five starters.
Most likely upset in round 1 according to our network of experts: #11 UTEP over #6 Utah.
Specific handicapping factors for NCAA Tourney games will be examined in full detail in my next article coming on Wednesday . . . As will our list of over-performing and under-performing coaches . . .
Ring the cash register in your head!
RJ Bell
rj@pregame.com
Adding to your Bracket IQ - by RJ Bell
First comes filling in your brackets. Office pool success is typically decided by two types of predictions: 1) Picking teams that will go deep into the tournament; 2) Picking a healthy amount of upsets in the early rounds.
On the surface every #1 seed looks strong – that’s why they're top seeds. But you’re not going to win your pool without scoring with some surprises. Let’s take a look at how #1 seeds have historically done:
(All stats are since 1985, the year the Big Dance became a 64 team tournament. All results are straight up with no consideration for point spread.)
Number of Final Four teams that were #1 seeds in a given year:
All 4: zero times
3 of 4: three times
2 of 4: nine times
1 of 4: eight times
0 of 4: zero times
Very interesting . . . never all four, but never none – one or two 17 of the last 20 years! Considering that picking upsets wins bracket pools, the numbers advice advancing only one #1 to the semi-finals in your bracket.
Which one? Key fact to consider: Of the 80 Final Four teams in our sample, 26 failed to meet ALL of the following conditions:
+ Made tourney the prior year
+ Had a preseason AP All-American
+ Beat opponents by an average of 10+ points a game.
+ Got at least 30% of scoring from their front court (forwards and centers)
Stunningly, only 4 of those 26 teams that failed to meet ALL the above conditions made the Final Four! 30 of 54 teams who did meet these conditions did make the Final Four!
But don’t count on #1 seeds falling easily:
80-0 in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round
68 of 80 (85%) make it to the Sweet 16.
56 of 68 (70%) make it to the Elite 8!
In the Elite 8, #1s are only 20-19 to win that next game to reach the Final Four when playing a #2 or #3 seeds. When playing any other seed lower than 3, the #1s have won 14 of 17 games to reach the Final Four.
Of the 222 times top seeds have played #5 seeds or lower, those lower seeds have won only 21 times (that’s over 90% winners for the #1s when playing a significantly lower seed)
Which leads to a key point – seemingly upset worthy #8 and #9 seeds inevitably must face a #1 in the 2nd round, severely decreasing the likelihood of advancing as far as even the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round.
#2 seeds are 76-4 in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round; but #2 are only 16-13 in the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> round vs. #10 seeds.
#3 seeds are 67-13 in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round – but less than 50% make it to the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round!
#4 seeds are 64-16 in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round – but less than 50% make it to the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round!
At least one #12 seed has beaten a #5 in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> round every year but one since 1988.
Seeds #13 or worse win less than 14% of games played, making them extreme long shot picks to win even a single game.
Which leaves 10, 11, and 12 seeds as prime Cinderella candidates – when they win in round 1, these sleepers are a surprising 39-43 to win in the 2nd round and move on to the Sweet 16.
The Elite 8 is where the big upsets usually end. 26 times in this round big underdogs (defined by being 4 or more seeds worse) have faced favorites, winning only 4 times (15%).
Seeds of 80 Final Fours teams of the last 20 years:
#1: 34
#2: 18
#3: 11
#4: 7
#5: 3
#6: 3
#8: 3
#1: 1
88% of Final Four teams come from the top 3 seeds!
Only once has a lower than #8 made the Final Four!
Of the last 20 champions, 11 were #1 seeds.
Don’t believe the myth that the Mid-Major conferences are closing the gap with the big boys – in the last 5 years, these conferences have:
+ sent less teams to the dance
+ with a lower average seed
+ won a lower percentage of games
than in ANY other 5 year period of the last 20 years.
The gap between the super conferences and mid-Majors is widening.
Important game factors to keep in mind when picking winners:
Experience of both the players and the coach in the Big Dance - The more the better.
How the team did on the road during the season – Tournament games are road games.
Home court fan advantage for certain teams in certain rounds.
Ignore bench depth – over the last 5 years, Final Four teams have gotten over 80% of their points from their five starters.
Most likely upset in round 1 according to our network of experts: #11 UTEP over #6 Utah.
Specific handicapping factors for NCAA Tourney games will be examined in full detail in my next article coming on Wednesday . . . As will our list of over-performing and under-performing coaches . . .
Ring the cash register in your head!
RJ Bell
rj@pregame.com
