20 Days Until Xmas $$$$$

[NorthernStar]

I have a NBA totals program with data from over 7,000 games. It s performing very well and thought I would share before Xmas. For simplicity there are plays in games, first halfs and often times a correlation with the total and either the home team or visitor. So I will have 3 categories that I will track. The side plays will be rated 3, 4 or 5. All parlays will be 2 because it was not how the program was designed and is just a by product. Goal on the parlays is to hit above 30%. I am going to post on twitter too for the first time.....not sure if posting twitter account is allowed but add 126.

I just updated my record and I will be back later today with my plays. I like to let the lines settle slightly before running the program.

Game Plays

5* 3-3
4* 0-0
3* 1-1

First Half Plays

5* 1-1
4* 1-0
3* 3-0

Parlays

2* 3-3

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[blackchina]

Sorry for all the questions but why wait for lines to settle. Your program would give out a line and you would see line value the night before wouldnt it? or does the system work a different way.

Books throw out lines the night before and adjust based on $$ or other things.

For example, cavs over/under opened last night at 215.5 and now 216.5 most places. if your system estimated 218 why wait for line changes?

sorry to pester you, i'm just curious to system plays where you take the emotion out of it and make automatic plays.

Good luck today. First halves are killing it

 

[NorthernStar]

Sorry for all the questions but why wait for lines to settle. Your program would give out a line and you would see line value the night before wouldnt it? or does the system work a different way.

Books throw out lines the night before and adjust based on $$ or other things.

For example, cavs over/under opened last night at 215.5 and now 216.5 most places. if your system estimated 218 why wait for line changes?

sorry to pester you, i'm just curious to system plays where you take the emotion out of it and make automatic plays.

Good luck today. First halves are killing it

That does make sense and I have thought about doing that. Check overnight and if it is a play....then play it.

The data base will only have one line for a game for past history.....so what I am trying to do is have consistency in the line I put into my data base. One other item that can effect the line is a player injury or announcement that someone is not playing although sometimes that happens after I have made my decision. You probably also see the biggest movements at opening or right before the game.

My goal is to get the best line once I have made my decision. Two Games I am looking at today both have moved 2 points worse from last night.

There is also one other thing that the program does which movement against me takes into account. Remember I just put numbers in at it spits out selections....so the line might reflect an injury. Sometimes if the differential gets too big.....so it looks too good to be true.....the program will eliminate the play. I have found out if the number I calculate is so far off of the line there was probably an underlining reason for it and I should not play it.

One other slight side note. Some of the plays have had first half and game selections. I think it increases the chance of 2-0 or 0-2 that is why I make the lesser of the two a smaller play usually.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[blackchina]

overnight books just through at an average number and the closer to game time the tighter the line gets to even out action.

Lets have a big day today, lots of games

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight.....

 

[NorthernStar]

Full Game Plays both in same category

5* Chicago Under 212.5
5* New Orleans Under 197.5 they are 26-13 last 3 years and 53-28 last 7 years

First Half
4* Phil Over 108 34-19 last 3 years and 4-0 this year

Parlays
Chicago & Under
New Orleans & Under 15 of 37
Brooklyn & Over for game 17 of 44 (FYi first half 18 of 45)

#followthenorthernstar

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[KingEleven]

BOL

:toast:

 

[Biz]

Is 15 of 37 and 17 of 44 profitable doing 2 teamers??

 

[RussellPeters]

Is 15 of 37 and 17 of 44 profitable doing 2 teamers??

At th parlay payout odds I would say yes. That's a pretty good % in winning parlays IMO.

Both trends would yield about +17 units for every 1 unit risked.

 

[blackchina]

Good luck. I see bulls have dropped 3/4 points since last night. Let's hope those points don't matter. Good luck

 

[penguyen]

At th parlay payout odds I would say yes. That's a pretty good % in winning parlays IMO.

Both trends would yield about +17 units for every 1 unit risked.

Believe it when you see it ... anyone can make up trends for any game both ways

 

[NorthernStar]

Believe it when you see it ... anyone can make up trends for any game both ways

My guess is you dont believe the 3-3 record either? Keep negative comments to yourself....especially for your 12th post.

Not counting it in the record but Brooklyn & Over just won the first half now 19 of 46. I only post parlays that hit 40% or more. Good probability based on the first half score that Brooklyn and over wins the game too. The record on the game was slightly worse than first half but overall the over was slightly better in the game than the first half. The program was written only to predict totals. I think the over has a record of 26-19. Of those 26 overs 18 of them the home team covered. A by product of all of the data is the ability to identify these type of correlations. Thus my reasoning for using the game parlay.

For anyone who thinks parlays are sucker bets......you have no idea what you are talking about.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[THawk+]

Damn! missed everything!! Got stuck with work....

Gl tonight thanks for posting

 

[blackchina]

Brooklyn almost game it away.

 

[NorthernStar]

Brooklyn almost game it away.

I thought at half getting 6.5 up by 15 looked pretty good.....they got outscored 28-8 to open the third quarter to make it look not so easy.

 

[RussellPeters]

Damn! missed everything!! Got stuck with work....

Gl tonight thanks for posting

You got lucky with the missed plays today. Only the 1 parlay hit, all the others lost. Unlucky with OT in the Pelicans game and opposite slow and fast starts in the Phi and Chi games respectively. Get it back tomorrow NS!

 

[Biz]

If no OT then just a 4* loss pretty much. The parlays were a wash, a slight loss.

Its a long term deal, play every day or not at all. My hoops started off slow, last 2 weeks been great. Gotta roll with the ups and downs. Appreciate your time

 

[penguyen]

what part of my comment is negative?
whats wrong with 12 post? i like to read from idiots than to reply to idiots

look ..this guy is gonna blindly tail u bc of these "trends" .. im just informing him that when you LOOK for trends , you can always find them both ways .
for example, here is a copy and paste from computer group in NFL showing trends for BOTH sides .....as ALWAYS with trends

Raiders are 1-9 ATS on the road off back to back SU wins
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS as a home fav in 2016

base on trends, who u going to play ? ... If im playing raiders ... for sure ill post that chief trend up lol

My guess is you dont believe the 3-3 record either? Keep negative comments to yourself....especially for your 12th post.

Not counting it in the record but Brooklyn & Over just won the first half now 19 of 46. I only post parlays that hit 40% or more. Good probability based on the first half score that Brooklyn and over wins the game too. The record on the game was slightly worse than first half but overall the over was slightly better in the game than the first half. The program was written only to predict totals. I think the over has a record of 26-19. Of those 26 overs 18 of them the home team covered. A by product of all of the data is the ability to identify these type of correlations. Thus my reasoning for using the game parlay.

For anyone who thinks parlays are sucker bets......you have no idea what you are talking about.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[NorthernStar]

what part of my comment is negative?
whats wrong with 12 post? i like to read from idiots than to reply to idiots

look ..this guy is gonna blindly tail u bc of these "trends" .. im just informing him that when you LOOK for trends , you can always find them both ways .
for example, here is a copy and paste from computer group in NFL showing trends for BOTH sides .....as ALWAYS with trends

Raiders are 1-9 ATS on the road off back to back SU wins
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS as a home fav in 2016

base on trends, who u going to play ? ... If im playing raiders ... for sure ill post that chief trend up lol

It is not a trend. It was a program designed to pick totals. All of the stats win percentages are based on a scenario that is exactly like the game that night.

In terms of parlays there is often times a correlation to the side and the total. If you went back about 10 years ago the books didnt care. It was easy money playing parlays. Guess what the books did....changed the rules. Tonight Florida state is 9.5 and 65 first half. Cant parlay it because if they cover the 9.5 it more likely will also have gone over. It certain instances the program shows a positive correlation to the total and the team that covers.

 

[Biz]

what part of my comment is negative?
whats wrong with 12 post? i like to read from idiots than to reply to idiots

look ..this guy is gonna blindly tail u bc of these "trends" .. im just informing him that when you LOOK for trends , you can always find them both ways .
for example, here is a copy and paste from computer group in NFL showing trends for BOTH sides .....as ALWAYS with trends

Raiders are 1-9 ATS on the road off back to back SU wins
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS as a home fav in 2016

base on trends, who u going to play ? ... If im playing raiders ... for sure ill post that chief trend up lol

To use your quote, I'll reply to an idiot after reading an idiot. The idiot is you penguyen.

Anyone who would trust a 5 or 10 game sample size is an idiot, which is what you are using as an example. The question with all trends are:

- Is the sample size big enough
- Does the trend/system/angle make logical sense
- Does the trend/system/angle win on a consistent basis year to year.

Northern Star isn't using trends the way that you are. He is using prior statistics and crunching numbers, looking for variance and/or situations that have shown historically that they are profitable.

Let me ask you a question genius. How do YOU handicap a basketball game??

If handicapping a game was as easy as looking at a few stats, we would all be rich.

Now I don't know exactly how he arrives at his plays, but his database has 7k games in it.....compared to the example you used of 5 or 10 games. Only an utter dumbfuck would come in here and use that as an argument.

I use a combination of system and stats to arrive at my plays. Call them trends or angles or situational plays....I really don't give a shit what you call them. I know this, they win.

Yes, someone can find a reason to play both sides. No fucking shit. It the logic behind the reasoning that matters.

You clearly have no clue how to apply trends and analysis. The only person coming off looking like an idiot is you. Take your 13 posts and talk to people as dumb as you are. Or, to dumb it down for you.....take a hike.