$$$$$$$$ 20-12 NBAsia Tuesday MORTAL LOCKS GUARANTEED $$$$$$$$

[Braveheart]

Plays coming in the morning but this first:

You guys are real funny in my Monday thread. Thanks for all the support

(like I need it!

).

Anybody reading knows my plays have been locks or guaranteed virtually every day.

You know how hard it is to guarantee 2-1 3-1 day in day out and achieve it. I kind of post assuming you can take the hype with a pinch of salt and if not why were you not all here to bash me a week ago if posting locks or guarantees is such a sin?

Or here http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=718099022&m=105107001&r=989109001#989109001 when I said:

"NBAsia: All these picks are locks 3-1 is guaranteed."

and did go 3-1 just on Saturday. Where were the bashers then?

But the picks are always solid. Nobody is a 70% capper and 60% is near impossible over a large sample size unless you are being extremely selective and getting the absoulte cream of the # on every bet. I will be happy to hit 57% with these plays because my top plays are bashed into overnight opening prices and I am trying to post plays at lines everybody can get on the day of the game. It is extremely hard to beat these markets posting at noon on the day of game when a lot of the value in opening prices has been eaten by sharps. I make a lot more plays than what I post (and am worse than the 0-3 posted here so far today overall so please continue to bash me even further). Sometimes the # I post is 3 points or more worse than what I have myself there is no way I can hit 60% long term doing this.

Some things I have read here recently are also waaaaaay off when it comes to money management and expectations of win%. I will chime in on a few MAJOR issues here and may get a bit long winded but those sensible enough to digest it will get something out of reading.

1) Money Management.....as demonstated by Zapster

"Recommended play is .4% of bankroll per unit"...and multiple 20 unit plays per day

20 units *0.4% = 8% BR on some games. One warning I will say and that anybody betting 8% on games will go broke no matter how good they are.

You go 0-6 on 20 unit plays you drop 7 x 8% = 48% of your bankroll a complete disaster. You know how easy it is to go 0-6 well I am about that with all my unposted bets today. 2% of BR would be sensible as an ABSOLUTE LIMIT for the vast majority of posters here. $20 may seem very small off a $1000 br but it is better than the $0 when you go broke.

I would recommend you bet the same every game no matter how much you like it because it is extremely simple and avoids a lot of risk. The most important thing for squares is not to win big but to avoid going broke. No play is that good to justify 8% none at all.

2) Buying points and multiple plays on 1 game.....as demonstrated by Mrs Cheater

"ok, i woke up 5 min before tip off and looked to see if u had a biggie on the early game. i jumped on it as quick as can be and bought it to 190. also took over 48.5 for the first q too. GL GL GL to us today"

Don't buy points on nba totals (or sides but totals is worse) you will go broke no matter who you are. You are getting ****ed big time by the books here as 0.5 on an nba total is worth virtually nothing. And be extremely careful betting the same bet moneyline, 1st quarter, 1st half, game, 2nd half e.t.c you will go broke eventually also doing this unless you are extremely sharp because if 1 team does not show up you can go 0-6 on 1 game!

3) This season has been toooooooo easy so far........as demonstrated by Braveheart/ NBAsia, Tatehill2000, Zapster, Occams, SSI and every other Cat Dog and Horse betting NBA so far this season

Virtually every poster in this forum has a winning record and thus all the followers too. When winning big the squares automatically assume it will continue forever then blow their bankroll due to bad moneymanagement when the future does not come out as they prophesized. Where as sharps tend to conclude they are getting lucky so far and remain level headed. If the good fortune continues it's a bonus!

Squares (and sharps) have been doing particularly well in nba this year. All the steam has been winning and an extremely low proportion of games have landed in the middle so the # people have been betting at has been unimportant. Sharps hunting down the best # for every bet have shown very little fruits for their endeavours.

This most likely will return to normal so please have multiple outs and shop for prices because all these extra 0.5 here and there will add up big over the rest of the season.

4) Who to follow and who not to follow?

I will say one thing and that is that this NBA forum at the rx is about the most winningest forum I have ever seen. You only have to take a look in college hoops forum The best way I have to see who is winning and who is not is to look a cappers BIGGEST wager size and ask myself how many of these bets he will have to lose to get into the red. That is a good indication of how far he is ahead. I will leave you do this research for yourself.

Now all that is said

NBAsia Record: 20-12

Will anybody be pissed if I go 20-12 in my next 32 bets? ......... didn’t think so. Off to capping tomorrow’s card.

Good Night to ALL

Plays coming tomorrow

[This message was edited by Braveheart on January 20, 2004 at 12:37 AM.]

 

WOW relax Brave...we're all just here to make money.

I was sloppy in the beginning of the year when I started 3-11 in the NBA and was all over the place with the amount of units on each game. I stopped and went back to the old 1.1/game and since I've been 90-70 over the last 160 so I hear you when you say it's all about managing your money but did you really need to call out other posters...?

Good luck I enjoy reading your threads and will continue to do so the rest of the season.

sb

 

[Braveheart]

8% on 1 play is enough of a reason for me to call out another poster for their own safety!

You will never see me bash anybody else. I hope any criticism I make will be taken as constructive as that is how it is intended.

If you feel the need to bash anybody please bash me. I could go 0-38 in nba tomorrow and still be up (a few cents) on the season.



THE POWER OF THE MACAU SYNDICATE AND NBASIA WILL SILENCE THE CRITICS WITH WINS NOW IS THE TIME TO SHINE

 

[Mrdj]

Hey buddy Thanks for the picks they are great. What do you think those A-Holes think after their service who they pay goes 0-3. Their service guarantees they will take their money.

 

Not bashing at all...I just thought your points could be well taken if the names of the people you question were withdrawn.

It's your thread man do what you feel you need to do. Hopefully the posters you question will take it as constructive criticism and not as bashing.

sb

 

[BuckEyez]

Braveheart,

I hope you don't take the rants of amatuer cappers and pepole that just lynch your picks to heart (i am NOT speaking about you sportsbet). I have been following your picks and your work speaks for itself.

 

Buck it's all good...I'm a big fan of Brave's threads and he's just trying to help his fellow posters.

sb

 

[~Falco~]

"The most important thing for squares is not to win big but to avoid going broke."

Thanks O sharp one for watching out for us squares.

Do us all a favor; when you have a bad day don't get up on the pulpit and start preaching to the choir.

"I will chime in on a few MAJOR issues here and may get a bit long winded.... "

Understatement.

I made money on your picks. Thanks. But your post comes across as a condescending know it all.

Keep the picks coming. I meant this post as constructive criticism

 

[kayaman]

Brave, I hope you got a chance to read what I said, in Monday's thread. Don't take anything personnally, as I'm sure you won't. You're good, you know it, I was just being sarcastic and all Hell broke out. Keep doing what you do. See ya tomorrow.

 

[Braveheart]

~Falco~

Read some of your posts you are by no means a square. Too many good cappers and too much solid info in this forum for any reader to be anything resembling a square.


Kayaman

No problem man. If I couldn't take a joke I wouldn't post guaranteed mortal locks. You have to be prepared to take the rough with the smooth.

No one side is ever 100% in sports betting as athletes are too inconsistent in performance. As long as you are getting a good # whatever team you bet no one side can be that good or that bad.

Hope to bounce back tomorrow to silence the critics.

Thanks

BH

 

[BowlMeOne]

Brave

Your tips and picks are much appreciated. If you get a chance could you hit me with an Email at BowlMeOne@comcast.net

I'd like to pick your brain a little, if your not too busy. Thanks bud, look forward to the NBASIA chat of the day

wiz

 

[thegodfather]

If these are guarnanteed winners, then you should go 3-0 everday. Nice mortal locks.

 

[Braveheart]

NBAsia "Can he really lose 5 in a row" plays for Tuesday

Trailblazers @ Kings, Kings -12

Nuggets @ Jazz, Under 186.5

BOL to ALL

[This message was edited by Braveheart on January 20, 2004 at 02:44 PM.]

 

[SportSavant]

brave,

enjoy your posts...feel that your 'constructive criticism' above is just that...I do not define it as bashing or anything of the sort, quite the contrary, I find it helpful & think other's should take it for what it is worth...

good work

 

[Zapster]

Sorry Braveheart.....

Maybe if you were to turn down your "obnoxiousness meter" by a few levels I would consider taking what you say as "constructive criticism." You have been on a roll. And I congratulate you for that. I, on the other hand have been on a cold streak. Is this really how you want to handle the credibility that comes with success ??

Trust me....when the worm turns.....and it will turn (it always does) I won't be on a soapbox taking about the irresponsibility of calling plays "mortal locks" or whatever......or of how classless it is to give the

to those who fade you.

While you do raise a good point about money management, the way you do so makes it very difficult to want to engage in any discussion with you about the merits (or lack thereof) of unequal plays.

By the way....you may not take it this way, but I really do mean this as constructive criticism. It is perfectly fine to be entertaining in your presentation....and I have often enjoyed reading your posts. But I have also often seen you go over the line from entertaining to simply obnoxious and you do yourself a disservice by doing so. I have been meaning to point that out to you for some time, but I didn't because I didn't feel like being subject to the way I figured you would react to that.

Sooooo.....take this for what you will. It is well intended in any case. And if you ever want to engage in an even-keeled theorhetical discussion about money management strategies, I think that would potentially benefit a lot more people than just the two of us.

 

[Braveheart]

"I, on the other hand have been on a cold streak. Is this really how you want to handle the credibility that comes with success ??"

Cold streak here too unfortunately. If you remember when I used to post my full card there was a freakishly large degree of correlation between my plays and yours and that continues to be the case (I had all of your losers yesterday and more) so in general if you are cold I am cold too and vice versa. I have just been kind of fortunate the plays I have given out have done pretty well.

"Trust me....when the worm turns.....and it will turn (it always does) I won't be on a soapbox taking about the irresponsibility of calling plays "mortal locks" or whatever......or of how classless it is to give the to those who fade you."

I preach sound money management. Whether a play is a mortal lock or not I flat risk 2% BR every play and recommend others do the same or even less. Please do not take anything I say seriously (other than handicapping/techincal stuff) my posts are purely to inject some fun into the forums. The main reason I call plays mortal locks is I enjoy getting bashed when I lose it makes me try harder.

As long as you are line shopping and getting a decent # on every bet you make no bet is that good (or that bad) the beauty of sports gambling is that often sharp gamblers disagree. If you are betting team A +4 -105 and me team B +4.5 -105 in the long run we will lose hardly anything at all.

The worm will probably turn, the season has been too easy so far, but If you can get your bets in at under 190 and watch them move to 188 by gametime, you have such huge edges on the closing number that it is rare to go through prolonged losing streaks. When lines start moving against you and you start losing then you have major issues to deal with.

With redgards to my:

"Congrats to all the winners

and of course

to all the faders"

This is a complete joke. Please feel free to

me when I lose. I am completely bash proof and enjoy it. The only concern for me when I lose is of people who have lost following my plays but over the long run provided they are sensible they should come out ok.

This is a great job when you are winning and a shit job when you lose. My posts are mainly designed to inject some fun into losing not to insult or offend anybody. I am just here to have fun!

 

[Zapster]

Interesting.........

What is comes down to is this.....I want to have all of my plays documented. I give them weightings to show that I like some of them more than others....but I still want all of them documented. If they were all weighted equally, I would barely be showing a profit. I *COULD* do a weeding process (as it seems you do) but I want to have all of my plays documented (did I mention that ??)

So....since I want all of my plays documented, I list all of them in the main thread. SportSavant asked me how many dollars a 10 Unit play would be on a $1,000 bankroll and...after much thought I decide $40 was a good amount....hence my 0.4% per unit recommendation. It isn't etched in stone, but I felt it is/was as good a starting point as any. Clearly you disagree. The only thing I took exception too was your manner in expressing it. Tater and I have demonstrated that we do a lot better as cappers when we work together and I took your original post to be a step in the opposite direction.

In another thread Tater and I c****-reference our plays and post our "agreed plays" which would seem to be the equivilent of your own weeding process. Those plays I do agree should be played uniformly.

My goal in all this is to be a thorn in the side of scamdicappers. I want to offer CREDIBLE picks for FREE....and so I am posting everything I come up with in order to have a documented record of my success rate. At the same time I know people are wagering on these plays, so I feel it is important to let them know which are the more playable picks. Hence the weighting.

I like to feel that many of us who post here have similar agenda....including yourself. Hopefully we can improve the way we communicate with each other and concentrate our wrath on the scamdicappers and help those who read our posts harvest some coin from the bookies.

 

[1cheater]

Braveheart, my wife has yet to read this thread because she's taking the day off from the NBA and the RX after a bad day.

I feel my wife won't take offense to your post and will take it as constructive critisum.

I, on the other hand, agree with what the other's have mentioned about "soap boxing" just because a couple sore losers come here and bash you because you have a bad day does not condone you putting my wife's name in bold and using her as an example of bad money management.

WE are here to help EACHOTHER, not put SALT in an open wound.

 

[VALUESEEKER]

I AGREE WITH YOU ON A LOT OF YOUR POINTS NO 1 NEVER EVER BUY POINTS THE PERCENTAGES WILL KILL YOU, PEOPLE ONLY REMEMBER WHEN THAT HALF POINT SAVED THEM. THEY DONT REMEMBER THE COUNTLESS TIMES THEY WASTED 10 PERCENT ON A HALF POINT FOR A GAME NO WHERE NEAR THE NUMBER BUYING POINTS IS A HUGE WASTE OF MONEY GET DIFFERENT OUTLETS AND SHOP FOR THAT HALF POINT

 

[zip32]

Braveheart, I want to give you prospective from someone who is new to this forum. Please don't refrain from posting the information you have. People should be able to weed out sarcasim or wit and see the value of what is being said by not only you, but by alot of experienced cappers. I am finding this site to be extremely helpful. I for one play 4% of my bankroll per play or 6% on my best plays (very rare) I adjust daily so if I'm hot I go up and when I'm cold I go down. You being adament about no more than 2 percent per play has me looking at how I do things so I can improve. And isn't that what is all about.