| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 14 | 9 | 0.00 | +9.86 |
| Season to Date | 25 | 20 | 0.00 | +11.02 |
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Harvard +6½ -110 over WOFFORD
7:00 PM EST. The mighty Terriers of Wofford made a statement right before the holiday break with a season-defining 79-75 win at North Carolina as a 25-point pooch. It doesn't stop there for the Terriers, as Wofford also took out another Power Five opponent in Georgia Tech. There has been no letdown for Wofford, as the Terriers have gone 2-1 since the big win over the Tar Heels including a 3-0 record against the spread. Wofford is coming off two straight wins, 92-53 over VMI as a 15-point favorite and 109-92 over The Citadel laying -16. Those impressive recent results combined with that huge win over Carolina has the Terriers' stock at an all-time high.
Harvard had high preseason expectations after being voted the favorite in the Ivy League over the likes of Yale and defending champs Princeton, but this season has not gone the way the prognosticators predicted, as the Crimson are just 6-9. A reason for the early season struggles could be Harvard's commitment to play quality non-conference opponents, and this year is no different, as the Crimson has played the 81st toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. Harvard returned all but one key piece from last season's squad that finished second in the Ivy League. The Crimson are better than their record shows, which should provide us with some value until they turn it around.
Wofford wasn't on anyone's radar three weeks ago, but when you knock off a Top-25 team in their building, you're going to get noticed. The Terriers play in the one-bid Southern Conference, so there is still work to be done if they want to wear the glass slipper. A conference championship is Wofford's only way in, and with defending regular season champs, Furman on deck for Saturday, this non-conference game against Harvard might be an afterthought. We are always on the lookout for over and under reactions and based on recent results, we find a serious overreaction here. That allows us to take back inflated points with a Harvard squad that is capable of winning this one outright. We’re calling the upset but the points are too juicy to ignore.
#724 GEORGE MASON +4½ -110 over St. Joseph
7:00 PM EST. Saint Joseph's followed up their 2016 Atlantic 10 championship with a major letdown last year, as they ended with an 11-20 record. Injuries plagued Saint Joseph's all season long, leading to a disastrous season with just four conference wins. The Hawks saw their three best players all miss extended time, with none of them playing more than 24 games. Dynamic guards Shavar Newkirk and Lamarr Kimble both saw their seasons cut short due to injury. Pierfrancesco Oliva, who started 30 games in 2015-16, missed the entire season with a knee injury. The prognosis early on was that if Phil Martelli gets a a fully healthy roster, Saint Joseph's could be a dangerous team in the Atlantic 10.
Unfortunately for the Hawks, Kimble will not play again this year after appearing in just one game but that’s not our focus here. Our focus is fading a well-known mid major with market credibility against a Patriots’ team with none. Furthermore, then Hawks are coming off two wins in a row over VCU (in OT) and the Bonnies. St, Joe’s is now 2-1 in conference play but it’s not as pretty as it appears. The Hawks lost their conference opener to a very beatable GW team. Again, it took OT to get by VCU and against the Bonnies, the Hawks went to the free-throw line 32 times (!) but only won by seven points. We could easily be discussing an 0-3 conference mark for the Hawks instead of a 2-1 record.
Most pundits had very low expectations for George Mason last season. The Patriots managed to win 20 games though and go a respectable 9-9 in Atlantic 10 play. That was just a year after going 5-13 in conference action during Coach Dave Paulsen’s first season with the program. The Patriots are moving in the right direction and moving quicker than expected. This year, the Patriots have just as many wins as the Hawks but they have one less in conference play (1-2). What sticks out to this market, however, is that GMU got torched at home last game by Davidson by a score of 86-59. This is the market reaction to that one result. To that we say, blowouts happen, as any team in the country can have an awful shooting day. A strong game usually follows an embarrassing one. The Patriots have a win over UMass and they hung around with Louisville for most of the game too, eventually losing by 11 but recency bias had this market swallowing up the points as soon as the number came out. It’s likely fool’s gold.
Both bets are to win 2 units.
Definite lean to Temple +10 or 10.5 too.
GOOD LUCK.
