Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.12 |
Last 30 Days | 11 | 6 | 0.00 | +10.52 |
Season to Date | 21 | 11 | 0.00 | +19.98 |
#541 VIRGINIA TECH +10 -108 over Louisville
8:00 PM EST. Virginia Tech has been frequently undervalued. Most recently, the Hokies took the top-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels to the brink as a 12½-point home pooch. The Hokies managed to draw level and keep the game close, despite UNC building an early lead, further showcasing that this host has the grit and determination to play with literally anyone in the country. The Hokies would achieve a similar feat against Notre Dame on the road, four days previous to their encounter with UNC. As a 12½-point dog, the Hokies would force Notre Dame to play a full game and while the Fighting Irish may not be a top-ranked squad, they are an impressive 14-5 on the year, the defending ACC Tournament Champion and coming in off an Elite Eight appearance at last year’s tournament.
Previous to those two aforementioned games, the Hokies would win outright at Georgia Tech when VT would close as a 7½-point hound. Now, here we are again, a team playing host to the #14 Louisville Cardinals and the market has little faith in the Hokies again. Well, we have little faith in the overpriced Cardinals. The Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 against the spread. In nine of those 10 games they were favorites, many of which they were favored by considerable margins. The Cards managed to cover as a 24-point favorite against UMKC, but so what. Rick Pitino loves blowouts and he schedules blowouts. The other two covers were against FSU and Pitt at home in back-to-back games in which Louisville was a -7 and -9½-point favorites respectively. Over that span, Louisville did not cover once on the road and they are 2-2 straight up on the road during this 10-game slate.
As road chalk, Louisville lost outright to Clemson as a 6½-point favorite. They also narrowly escaped Georgia Tech 75-71 when offered at an identical price and once again failed to cover against N.C. State when they were positioned in similar fashion, three days before the Clemson defeat. We aren’t going to flood you with statistics and rhetoric but the point is that the proof is in the pudding. Virginia Tech plays great teams tough and knows they can play with the very best for four quarters. Tonight, Va Tech will be back again on their home court, entering with heightened optimism in light of a tough loss. One has to figure that the Hokies are on the verge of that next step and that could come here against a falsely ranked visitor that has had great difficulty playing on the road against a quality outfit. Virginia Tech won’t be any more welcoming and neither will their rabid fan base. Pick: Va Tech +10 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2)
#533 Saint Louis +17 -110 over DAYTON
Dayton is 16-3 overall and they’re 6-1 in the A-10 but they are not built to blow out teams. The Flyers do have some blowout victories but all quality outfits do. We want to pay more attention to the Billikens here and we also want to pay attention to the Flyers close calls. Three of Dayton’s last four home games were decided by six, seven and four points respectively against GW, Davidson and Arkansas with the latter occurring in OT. The Flyers have a one-point win over Miami (Ohio), a three-point win over Monmouth and another three-point win over William & Mary. The Flyers also have a home loss to Chattanooga and a four-point loss on the road to La Salle.
Once again Dayton made some noise in March of last year. The Flyers knocked off Boise State in the First Four and followed it up with a nice win over Providence before falling in a hard fought game to #3 seed Oklahoma. Coach Archie Miller has another good team, but he lost his best player to graduation and he has had to fill other holes as well. Miller is still trying to develop some consistency in the frontcourt. The Flyers are not a top-5 A-10 team in many key categories and they rank 9th in the conference in scoring.
The Billikens used to be a A-10 power but they have fallen completely off the map over the past two seasons. However, Saint Louis is showing signs of being relevant again and while it will not happen this season, they are primed to at least be competitive the rest of the way. At times last season, the Billikens offense seemed at a standstill, struggling to generate shots and ultimately points. Coach Jim Crews has worked diligently to find a solution by adjusting the system and trading structure for freedom in a motion offense that by all accounts is starting to pay dividends. After losing 13 of 15 games, the Billikens are coming off back-to-back victories over Davidson and UMass while racking up 96 and 86 points respectively. We cannot overstate what one or two victories does to a teams’ psyche. This is a Billikens team that is now 3-4 in the conference with their other victory occurring against a very decent GW program. The Billikens are a long way from mastering the motion offense but they have a different feel about them after those two aforementioned wins. Last season with a lost team, Saint Louis lost twice to the Flyers by 16 and seven points respectively. This year they’re better and right now the Billikens are filling it up offensively. The market has not made adjustments to the Billikens improvement and we'll attempt to cash in on it. Pick: Saint Louis +17 (Risking 2.20 units to win 2)