| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.10 |
| Last 30 Days | 22 | 37 | 0.00 | -18.14 |
| Season to Date | 83 | 111 | 0.00 | -8.38 |
Carolina -105 over VANCOUVER
OT included. This game cannot be priced like it’s a fair fight because it’s not. Carolina does everything better than the Canucks and they do so by a wide margin. The standings don’t reveal how superior the Hurricanes are to the Canucks and that’s because Cam Ward and Eddie Lack had about the worst possible first two months of the season as a duo could have. Speaking of Lack, he’ll get the start here and it’s an emotional one for him. He played several seasons in Vancouver and he often played to chants of ED-DY, ED-DY, ED-DY, ED-DY because that’s how good he played in this building and quickly became a fan favorite. His new teammates know how important this game is to him so they figure to dig down a little deeper to try and get him a victory. More than that, however, is that Lack is looking like his old self again. He’s not fighting the puck anymore like he was earlier and he’s standing in there with confidence. Aside from that, he’s not likely going to face many shots tonight. You see, Carolina leads the league in shots against per game. They also lead the league in fewest minor penalties taken. And if that’s not enough, Carolina leads the league in faceoffs won while the Canucks are dead last in that category. Carolina is a dominant puck possession team and they’ll be starting with the puck often in this one. Carolina is actually one of the least flawed teams in the NHL with one of the best defense corps but the market continues to ignore just how good they are.
Vancouver is none of the above. About the only way one can lose to the Canucks is to take too many penalties and allow their power-play to go to work. The Canucks PP has cooled off drastically lately but hopefully the ‘Canes will remain disciplined and not have it tested. The other way the Canucks can beat you is if you allow the Sedin/Sedin line space to work with. You take away the Canucks only point producing line and stay out of the box and their win expectation is the lowest in the league. Vancouver’s defense is constantly coughing it up and making poor decisions in its own end. Carolina specializes and thrives in forcing the opposition’s defense into making those poor decisions. Again, this isn’t a fair fight and we have to trust that we’re absolutely going with the best of it here.
Pittsburgh +144 over CHICAGO
OT included. The Penguins have woken up by winning four of their past seven games and picking up points in six of those seven games or picking up 10 out of a possible 14 points during that span. Pittsburgh’s only regulation loss over its past seven games was a 1-0 defeat against Winnipeg when they ran into a hot goaltender. The Penguins are playing at a much higher level now than they were a month ago. The Pens played nose to nose with the Blackhawks last night in Pittsburgh and they figure to do the same tonight in Chicago. The Blackhawks won in Pittsburgh last night, 3-2 but the Penguins held a 36-30 shot advantage, they had a Corsi for edge of 60-45 and a scoring chance edge of 27-21. Both these teams are one game under .500 against top-10 teams with the Blackhawks being 6-7 and the Penguins being 5-6. The Pens have five less wins than the Blackhawks but have played two less games and Pittsburgh also suffered a prolonged slump while the Blackhawks have not.
The point is that not a lot separates these two. The Penguins have Kris Letang back and he’s as important to the Penguins as Duncan Keith is to the Blackhawks. It’s no coincidence that the Pens starting picking up points and winning games as soon as Letang returned from his injury. Last night it was Marc Andre Fleury against Cory Crawford and tonight it’s very likely going to be Jeff Zatkoff versus Scott Darling. Our money is on the former. Goaltending will very likely decide this game and we’re not fond of Darling. He’s had some good games but he’s also had some horrible one’s, as his .879 or below save percentage in four of his 10 starts will attest to. We’ve been watching Darling give up soft goals for years and that does not bode well here. Pittsburgh’s dynamic scorers are starting to heat up. By contrast, Jeff Zatkoff has been outstanding with a .926 save percentage in nine games. Only twice has Zatkoff’s save percentage been under .900 and one was barely under at .894. Zatkoff’s save percentage has been .943 or better in six of his nine starts with the other one being at .929. Our wager here is that Zatkoff is better than Darling and Pittsburgh comes out with a split.
Carolina is 2.1 units to win 2. Pitt is for 2 units.
