| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.12 |
| Last 30 Days | 5 | 5 | 0.00 | +0.38 |
| Season to Date | 5 | 5 | 0.00 | +0.38 |
#511 Towson -3 over BOSTON COLLEGE
7:00 PM EST. Boston College achieved the wrong kind of perfection last season. Along with its football team going 0-8 in ACC play, it became the first Power 5 school to go winless in football and men’s basketball since TCU in 1976-77. The BC basketball team accounted for an 0-19 mark against ACC competition, which includes losing in the league tournament. The Eagles were the first team to go winless in ACC play since Maryland in the 1986-87 season, but back then they played only 14 regular-season conference games. While the Terrapins were hampered by the fallout from the death of Len Bias, the Eagles’ decline began shortly after they inexplicably forced Al Skinner out in 2010.
Given the lows of last season, there’s nowhere to go but up, right? That had to be the philosophy of Coach Jim Christian, who played one of the youngest rosters in the nation last season. The Eagles played nine true freshmen during the course of the season, which tied Bradley for the second most nationally. Toss in redshirt freshman Idy Diallo, and the Eagles reached double digits. Boston College will continue to heavily rely on perimeter players to carry the offensive load and so far so good with two victories in three games. However, those wins came against Maryland Eastern Shore and Stony Brook. The Eagles lost their HOME-opener to Nicholls by six points. What’s really at work here is that a Colonial Athletic Association school is favored at an ACC school and the market does not like that one bit. While we are rarely in favor of spotting road points in this sport, we have to continue to play the value when it’s warranted and that applies here. Boston College is still a mess. Christian took over an unenviable situation in Chestnut Hill, but he needs to start to turn it around and make the Eagles, at the very least, respectable. His future could be tied to that of athletic director Brad Bates, who hired him and has a struggling football program, too
Towson is also 2-1 but the difference is that their loss occurred on the road at Maryland against a very good Terps' squad and they only lost by five points. The Tigers other two games were also on the road and they won them both at George Mason and Morgan State. Heading into last season, the expectations were pretty low, but the Tigers ended up 11-7 in conference play and with 20 wins overall. Towson fell in their CAA tournament opener to Northeastern and lost their first game in the Vegas 16 tournament but Towson is ready for a better season in part due to the return of leading scorer and leading rebounder Arnaud William Adala Moto. The -110senior forward averaged 13.9 points and 8.3 rebounds last season. He is a great interior scorer and the offense will work through Adala Moto again this year. But he can also stretch the defense with his shooting ability. Towson will play its fourth straight game to open the season and it could end up serving them well. With a chance to go 3-1 before its home opener on Friday, the Tigers confidence is high and their play has been solid. A five-point loss to the Terps has to be considered a “good” loss. The Tigers are the superior team here, they’ve played a much tougher early season schedule and now they’re a small price against a directionless program. We’ll bite.
#517 Arkansas +163 over MINNESOTA
8:00 PM EST, A former Nolan Richardson assistant, Coach Mike Anderson returned to Fayetteville five years ago and was expected to get Arkansas basketball back to national relevance. That hasn't happened, except for the 2015 campaign in which the Razorbacks made their lone NCAA tourney appearance under Anderson. The team is coming off a mediocre 16-16 campaign and a 9-9 mark in the SEC. The Hogs will need to take a step forward, which is entirely possible with a player like Moses Kingsley. A lot can be said about Arkansas’ recent recruiting classes, but all that matters now is that this is a very, very good class. Coach Anderson brought in three junior college transfers and has Dustin Thomas eligible after sitting out as a transfer from Colorado. Thomas, a 6-8 junior, should be a nice complimentary player to Kingsley in the paint. The expectations are high for Arlando Cook, but junior college transfers do not always work out. Trey Thompson will provide a more experienced option. The 6-9 forward averaged 17.3 minutes per game last season and played pretty well. Thompson is tough on the glass and a pretty good shot blocker too. The Arkansas backcourt has quite a bit of talent returning. Dusty Hannahs is not losing his starting job after averaging a team high 16.5 points per game in his first season with the Razorbacks. Arkansas has the potential to be a lot better if all of the transfers can come close to living up to their hype and so far so good, as the Hogs are 3-0. However, the victories do not give them much credibility, as they occurred against Fort Wayne, Southern Illinois and UT-Arlington. That said, the Hogs will have the best player on the court here in Moses Kingsley, a future NBAer and besides that, this one is more about fading the overrated 4-0 Gophers.
If this was the first game of the year for both squads, we’re not even sure that the Gophers would be favored. However, after a 4-0 start and putting up some juicy numbers in the process, Minnesota’s stock has risen considerably so now would be the time to sell. Gophers Coach, Richard Pitino is the son of Louisville Coach, Rick Pitino, who knows how to work this system better than anyone. You schedule games against teams you can smoke to build up your resume. You keep your job in the process (Pitino was on the hot seat after going 8-23 last year) and you keep your foot on the gas and try and win by 50 points. Rick Pitino has been doing that for years and he’s passed on his manipulation of the system to his son. The Gophers four wins have occurred against Ul Lafayette, Mount St. Mary’s, UT-Arlington and St. John’s. Minnesota trailed by 12 points at one point against UT-Arlington. They trailed the Johnnies by nine and rallied to win by six. Against Ul Lafayette, the Gophers were outrebounded and committed 19 turnovers but a barrage of three’s carried them to another victory. What we have here is a 4-0 team putting up some big offensive numbers but they’re skewed. As soon as the competition stiffens, the Gophers will be exposed as the extremely vulnerable team that they are. They rely on a high percentage of shots to go down but they don’t have the defense to compensate for it when the shots aren’t falling. A team that plays this way can go cold at any time. That means they can fall behind by a big margin on any given day and that is not the type of team you want to get behind when spotting points or a price. Sure, the Gophers can win here and if they do, good for them but there is money to be made fading this group because they are prone to getting blown out by any equal like the team they’ll face here. They will get blown out once conference play starts because they are ill-equipped to play with the real teams in the Big-10. Take the four points if you wish here but we’re going to stay aggressive and play the Hogs straight up.
Towson is 2.2 units to win 2 while Ark is a 2 unit wager.
