one juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust missed being my GOY and might have been - but i think that will go off next week if all else holds form and i get the line i think i might.
the one that juuuuuust missed is:
Fullerton @ Utah State -17
last time these 2 met - fullerton literally took the air out of the ball and only lost 57-49 (and even this is misleading since fullerton led 49-48 w/about 2+ minutes left in the game).
fullerton's last 4 trips to logan (all loses - duh) saw scores of:
61-60
60-45
58-46
82-70
take away that last game (played 1/13/00) and the scores pretty much look the same - a low scoring game with fullerton taking the air out of the ball knowing it was the only way they could stay in it. i see no reason saturday will be any different. take away fullerton's 33-point loss @ ucsb on 1/31 (and there were extenuating circumstances that game that were well known ahead of time by those who really follow fullerton basketball and what happened in that game was expected – and happened) and we haven't lost a game by more than 9 in BW play and all season long our biggest loss w/o that ucsb game was an opening day loss by 17 @ N. AZ - a game we got revenge on about 2 weeks later when we beat them by 15 at home. fullerton sucks but they come to play for 40 minutes and i see fullerton hanging around her long enough to get a cover. utah state hasn't been playing all that well at home lately and i think the pressure of a T25 rating is getting to them - and they are playing not to lose - as opposed to playing to win. fullerton knows it will be tough to win this game and will come in really loose - and i think when all is said and done - fullerton gets the ATS win. If you look at the power ratings and all – this line is right in line with where it should be. but when you look at other factors – this line is about 3-5 points to high. for those looking for a wire-to-wire easy win stay away from this one – you will not get what you wish for. For those looking for a game that will get you an ATS win – this IS your game. to help things out the "good folks" at wagerline lean heavily towards USU - so we know fullerton is the right side here. i also think that the USU AD getting picked up on drunken driving charges has really served to distract not only the team but the entire community in logan (for as we know - alcohol and utah don't go together). i know that is off the court but i do think here it affects the team on it - and USU isn't 100% focused on the games - and laying this many points - you better be!
Fullerton +17 will get there. it won't be easy - but it will get there
Play #2:
Pacific @ Cal Poly +3.5
poly is a mess and UOP is so fundamentally sound they should walk all over them.
uop is 9-2-1 ats on road while slo is 4-5-1 ats at home.
uop has won 9 straight with only a loss @ utah state (no crime) while slo's last 2 has them 2-8 with home wins against fullerton and riverside (2 less than stellar teams - understatement time). pacific is led by 1 of the very best coaches few people have heard of - bob thomasson (and i would put USU's stew morrill in that same boat - although he is getting more "love" this year since the (f)aggies are in the T25). he just flat out can coach and is damn good at it. slo has tossed in the towel on the season and UOp hasn't
Pacific -3.5
T recap:
Fullerton +17
Pacific -3.5
the one that juuuuuust missed is:
Fullerton @ Utah State -17
last time these 2 met - fullerton literally took the air out of the ball and only lost 57-49 (and even this is misleading since fullerton led 49-48 w/about 2+ minutes left in the game).
fullerton's last 4 trips to logan (all loses - duh) saw scores of:
61-60
60-45
58-46
82-70
take away that last game (played 1/13/00) and the scores pretty much look the same - a low scoring game with fullerton taking the air out of the ball knowing it was the only way they could stay in it. i see no reason saturday will be any different. take away fullerton's 33-point loss @ ucsb on 1/31 (and there were extenuating circumstances that game that were well known ahead of time by those who really follow fullerton basketball and what happened in that game was expected – and happened) and we haven't lost a game by more than 9 in BW play and all season long our biggest loss w/o that ucsb game was an opening day loss by 17 @ N. AZ - a game we got revenge on about 2 weeks later when we beat them by 15 at home. fullerton sucks but they come to play for 40 minutes and i see fullerton hanging around her long enough to get a cover. utah state hasn't been playing all that well at home lately and i think the pressure of a T25 rating is getting to them - and they are playing not to lose - as opposed to playing to win. fullerton knows it will be tough to win this game and will come in really loose - and i think when all is said and done - fullerton gets the ATS win. If you look at the power ratings and all – this line is right in line with where it should be. but when you look at other factors – this line is about 3-5 points to high. for those looking for a wire-to-wire easy win stay away from this one – you will not get what you wish for. For those looking for a game that will get you an ATS win – this IS your game. to help things out the "good folks" at wagerline lean heavily towards USU - so we know fullerton is the right side here. i also think that the USU AD getting picked up on drunken driving charges has really served to distract not only the team but the entire community in logan (for as we know - alcohol and utah don't go together). i know that is off the court but i do think here it affects the team on it - and USU isn't 100% focused on the games - and laying this many points - you better be!
Fullerton +17 will get there. it won't be easy - but it will get there
Play #2:
Pacific @ Cal Poly +3.5
poly is a mess and UOP is so fundamentally sound they should walk all over them.
uop is 9-2-1 ats on road while slo is 4-5-1 ats at home.
uop has won 9 straight with only a loss @ utah state (no crime) while slo's last 2 has them 2-8 with home wins against fullerton and riverside (2 less than stellar teams - understatement time). pacific is led by 1 of the very best coaches few people have heard of - bob thomasson (and i would put USU's stew morrill in that same boat - although he is getting more "love" this year since the (f)aggies are in the T25). he just flat out can coach and is damn good at it. slo has tossed in the towel on the season and UOp hasn't
Pacific -3.5
T recap:
Fullerton +17
Pacific -3.5
