| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.32 |
| Last 30 Days | 28 | 30 | 0.00 | +6.62 |
| Season to Date | 34 | 51 | 0.00 | -20.18 |
Calgary +112 over BUFFALO
OT included. Buffalo is the league’s most banged up team in terms of key personnel being on the rack, therefore, they’re a big risk at the present time. That risk is revealed in many ways. First, Buffalo has six wins in 18 games. If that doesn’t scare you off then perhaps this might. The Sabres have not scored more than twice in a game since October 30. That was 11 games ago so when you do bet them, you had better hope that the opposition scores one time. In Buffalo’s win over the Penguins on Saturday night (a result that is influencing this market), that was all Anders Nilsson’s doing, as the Sabres backup kicked away 47 shots in the victory. That was Buffalo’s first win in seven games and it was of the undeserving variety. Buffalo has surrendered 40 shots or more in four of those seven games. There is now talk in Buffalo that the wrong guy is the #1 goaltender. Well, Robin Lehner gets the start here under some heat and he’s a bit of a head case to begin with. Frankly, there is nothing to like about the Sabres spotting a price even if it appears the Flames are up against it.
Aside from Buffalo luckily defeating the Penguins on Saturday, the other issue that is influencing this price is that the Flames schedule has been a grueling one of late. Calgary played yesterday in Detroit and will be playing their fifth game in seven days here, fourth game in six days, third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. The market is buying that the Flames will come in running on fumes and the Sabres will take advantage. That may turn out to be true but we wouldn’t bet on it. Winning injects energy and after a funk, Calgary has won three of four with only loss over that span occurring against Chicago by a score of 3-2. What sticks out more than anything however, is that the Flames under the hood defensive numbers have been near flawless over their past seven games where they have allowed an average of 24 shots on net per game or eight shots per period. That is the best mark in the NHL over the last seven games and they did it against some offensively minded teams like Dallas, Anaheim, Chicago, the Rangers and Detroit. Calgary has allowed 24 shots on net or less five times in those aforementioned seven games with the other two results being 27 and 28 shots on net respectively. The Flames rank second in the league in Corsi Against (shots directed to the net) over that same span. Calgary might just have the best group of puck-moving defensemen in the league. They have three defensemen (T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton) that could be a #1 defenseman on a high majority of other teams in this league so it should come as no surprise how efficient they are at moving the puck out and keeping shots to a minimum. We’re counting on the Flames to dig down a bit deeper here and come up with another beauty. They don’t even have to be at their best to beat the Sabres, they just have to give an honest and strong effort, which is what we’re banking on.
Minnesota +105 OVER DALLAS
OT included. Our attack on the Stars continues. Dallas has been a low percentage play when favored by going 0-4 in its last four as the chalk, including a 5-2 loss to the Oilers Saturday night. The Stars are giving up a plethora of shots to the opposition, including more than 30 shots allowed in nine of their last 10 games. The Stars rank 26th in Corsi against per 60 minutes, they rank 24th in puck possession and they rank dead last in the number of face-offs in their own end, meaning no team is in their own end more than Dallas. The Stars also have the fourth worst team save percentage and they’re one of only five clubs that are sub .900 (.893). Break it down any way you want and Dallas is a fringe playoff team. They’re also 0-4 against top-10 teams and 3-7 against top 16 teams.
By contrast, the Wild are 3-0 against top-10 competition and 7-2 combined against top-10 and top-16. They are also 2-0 in their last two as a dog, including a 4-2 win at Pittsburgh, which was a very nice W. Perhaps the most glaring difference between these two is between the pipes where Devan Dubnyk’s .948 save percentage is tops in the West and second in the league with only Carey Price ahead of him. Dubnyk also leads the league with four shutouts and Minnesota overall leads the league with a GAA of 1.88. Coach Brice Boudreau has a long history of coaching thriving teams during the regular season. Minnesota is playing at a higher level under him than they did under previous regimes. Goaltending continues to be the #1 factor in determining outcomes and when there is a mismatch in an evenly priced game, we’re almost always interested in the superior goaltending. Devan Dubnyk versus Antti Niemi is a mismatch and is also more than enough reason to step in.
Both plays are for 2 units
