| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.42 |
| Last 30 Days | 30 | 28 | 0.00 | +17.01 |
| Season to Date | 99 | 110 | 0.00 | +26.15 |
Wild is 2.1 units to win 2, Carolina is a 2 unit risk.
Carolina +133 over TORONTO
OT included. The Maple Leafs shouldn’t be favored over the Mississauga Ice Dogs right now. At least they were scoring goals when they were losing and getting badly outshot and outplayed every night with Randy Carlyle calling the shots. At least they were somewhat entertaining for the first three months. Now the Maple Leafs aren’t even watchable. Not only are they the least talented team in the NHL and that includes Buffalo, the Maple Leafs lost their identity. With Carlyle they were an offensive team that could not care less about defense. The Maple Leafs relied on their goaltending and scoring to win games. It didn’t matter that they would get outshot by a 3-1 margin because Jonathan Bernier would keep them in it most of the time, thus giving the Leafs a chance for a victory. Now nobody knows what to do. These Maple Leafs players don’t know if they should back check or score goals. They don’t know if they should head east or west once they get on the ice. This Leafs team is made up of rejects and former fourth line players. They couldn’t give Dion Phaneuf away for free even if they agreed to pay his salary for the next three years. Toronto returns home from a four-game trip here after going 0-4 and scoring one goal. That’s right, the Maple Leafs were shut out three times in their four-game trip while going 0-11 on the PP. This is just one game and anything can happen, but spotting -140 or more with the Maple Leafs right now is like spotting -140 or more with the Sabres. Toronto is the inferior team here spotting a ridiculous price.
The Hurricanes have fewer points than Toronto and pretty much fewer points than everyone but don’t expect them to repeat that in the second half. Carolina has picked up points in six of their past eight games with only regulation losses over that span occurring against Nashville and Vancouver. They lost 3-2 to the Preds and recently went into St. Louis and lost 5-4 in OT. They also have recent wins over Boston, Ottawa and Philly. Even when they lost three in a row at the end of December, it occurred against Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Montreal and Carolina was in a position to win all of those. The ‘Canes have a nice mixture of youth and veterans. They are one of the better defensive teams in the NHL, ranking 6th in shots on net allowed. There is a huge correlation between winning games and keeping the opposition’s shot totals low. In fact, the league leaders in fewest shots on net allowed in order are: Detroit, the Islanders, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and St. Louis. Aside from the Wild, who had brutal goaltending, all of those other teams are thriving at or near the top of the standings. The teams that allow the most shots on net are Buffalo, Toronto, Colorado, Columbus, Arizona, Edmonton and Dallas. The correlation is obvious and it tells us that the ‘Canes are probably in for a very good second half. The ‘Canes simply had no “puck luck” in the first half but they’ve scored 15 goals over their past five games and they certainly offer up all the value in this one.
MINNESOTA -½ -105 over Columbus
Regulation only. The Jackets had a very good weekend, losing to New York on Friday in a game they deserved better in and following that up with a solid 3-1 victory in Boston on Saturday night. However, if you take away the Jackets empty netter on Saturday, they have now gone five straight games of scoring two goals or less. Prior to those two weekend games, the Jackets played Dallas, Toronto, the Islanders and Montreal and managed a measly 20 shots on net or fewer in all of them. The Jackets have some of the worst 5-on-5 numbers in the league. In fact, they have scored just 67 goals in 5-on-5 play, which ranks them 28th in the league ahead of only Buffalo and Carolina. The Jackets also rank 26th in time spent in the offensive end. The Jackets outstanding work ethic from last season is just not the same this season and after two very intense games this past weekend, there’s a good chance they’ll revert back to their poor habits. That said, this one is more about backing the Wild than it is about fading the Jackets.
Since Devan Dubnyk arrived, Minnesota is 2-0 while outscoring the opposition 10-1. That was without Ryan Suter, who was suspended for those two games. Without Suter, Minnesota outshot Buffalo and Arizona, 70-44 combined. At one point against Arizona on Saturday night, Minnesota was outshooting the Coyotes 27-9. Yeah, it’s just two games and yeah it was just Buffalo and Arizona but there’s a huge difference between coming to the rink and expecting to win and coming to the rink thinking you’re going to lose. With the recent acquisition of a rock-solid goaltender, the mindset of the Wild right now is that they’re coming to the rink expecting to win. They are only going to be better with Suter out there. Suter logs close to 30 minutes a game and is perhaps Minnesota’s most important player. Minnesota is back in the playoff picture and although it’s a long swim, they are just six points behind the Flames with a game in hand for the final playoff spot. With 37 games remaining, Minnesota has new life, a sense of rejuvenation and a great chance to make the playoffs now that they have gotten stable in goal. Advanced stats also say that the Wild are one of the best teams in the league and we’ll continue to back them during what could be a serious run up the standings over the next little while.
