Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Reds ML (-132)Reds -1.5 (+146)
I don't need to know much about a lefty to play them against Milwaukee.
The Brewers are dead last in wRC+ (74) and strikeout rate (29.1%) facing southpaws, and it appears Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott might be a pretty sporty one entering his MLB debut. Abbott's 3.58 xFIP with Triple-A Louisville is nice, and his gigantic 34.8% strikeout rate is even better given the matchup.
On the other side, perhaps the Reds will be the first to crack Julio Teheran since he returned to the big leagues. It's definitely coming; Teheran's 0.82 ERA is fibbing, per a gigantic 5.82 SIERA. He's only amassed an 11.1% strikeout rate, and my dude hasn't given up a homer despite a 52.8% flyball rate. Great American Ball Park can fix that.
The runline might be a bit greedy, but when the Reds' bullpen (4.40 xFIP) has also been a step ahead of the Brew Crew's (4.51), I'll ladder the pair for a larger potential payout.
St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers
Cardinals ML (+112)If FanDuel Sportsbook's splits on the spread are any indication, Texas should be a popular pick today at -132. After all, they scored 28 runs in two days against the Mariners, they've got a 120 wRC+ versus righties this year, and Adam Wainwright's Baseball Savant page is littered in blue, indicating he's a fifth-percentile pitcher in many categories.
I just don't buy the Rangers' hot stretch lasting long. Texas' active roster has a career 102 wRC+ against righties versus the mark they have now. They weren't expected to be this special. Plus, Wainwright's velocity isn't that poor compared to back-to-back campaigns with a sub-4.20 SIERA.
The Cardinals can also get after Martin Perez on the other side. St. Louis has a 115 wRC+ against lefties. Perez's struggles to find whiffs have hit a two-year low (16.7% strikeout rate), and he's ceded 1.48 HR/9 this year compared to a stellar mark last season (0.50).
Most of all, Wainwright's struggles should result in a pretty tight leash where St. Louis' key advantage could bloom. Their bullpen (3.89 xFIP) has been significantly better than Texas' (4.46 xFIP).
