| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +7.84 |
| Last 30 Days | 29 | 35 | 0.00 | +6.59 |
| Season to Date | 37 | 45 | 0.00 | +5.99 |
All plays are 2 units
Pittsburgh -½ +110 over TORONTO
OT included. The Maple Leafs have won three in a row, which was capped off by Wednesday’s 6-1 blowout over the Bruins. Combine Toronto’s recent success and that resounding win over Boston and what you have is a false perception that that the Leafs are on the way up. Let us point out that Boston is 0-3 against teams over .500 after losing in Montreal last night and 2-7 against top-16 teams. When the Leafs defeated Ottawa on Sunday, they were outshot 41-30. The Leafs also defeated a Rangers team that shows up every other game and they trailed that one 4-3 late in the third. Not to take anything away from the Leafs because a win is a win but impressive they are not. The Leafs continue to spend more time in their own end than most teams and they rely too heavily on one line to score and Jonathan Bernier to bail them out almost every game. It’s only a matter of time before the Maple Leafs get exposed once again as one of the weaker teams in the NHL and all the numbers back that up. The Maple Leafs are 4-5 against top-16 teams and they rank 26th in shots allowed per game in five on five play. Yeah, they’re scoring a lot of goals but it’s a pace that is sure to regress sooner rather than later.
Pittsburgh is coming off a 5-0 loss to the Rangers so they figure to be in a rather foul mood here. The Penguins have yet to lose to a top-10 team, going 3-0 thus far and against top-16 teams, they are 5-1. The Penguins overwhelm teams with one of the most ferocious offenses since the days of Wayne Gretzky and the Oilers back in the 80’s. Aside from the Panthers, Pittsburgh has played the least amount of games in the NHL (14) but they have scored the most goals (55). Prior to getting shut out in New York, the Pens had scored four or more goals in five of six games and three or more in 12 of their 14 games this season. When the Penguins came in here on October 11, they outshot Toronto 41-25 and won 5-2 and there’s nothing suggested anything different here. This isn’t difficult. Toronto will get badly outplayed and the only way they’ll win is if Jonathan Bernier comes up with a monster game and Thomas Greiss (confirmed) comes up lame. That’s a chance we’ll take every time.
New Jersey +140 over WASHINGTON
OT included. When these two get together it’s a 50/50 shot and that makes the Devils very worthy as a value play. Forget all the stats. These two are very evenly matched and it’s almost 100% guaranteed that the team that gets better goaltending will win. There isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can accurately predict which goalie will perform better. Fact is, these two have alternated wins over the past four times they’ve faced one another. New Jersey has defeated Washington five out of eight games since the beginning of the 2013 season. When they played earlier this season, also in Washington, the Caps won 6-2 because Cory Schneider was awful.
Braden Holtby is no better than Cory Schneider and vice versa. The Devils still play an outstanding brand of defense that gives them a good shot to win against equal competition every game. The Devils are coming off back-to-back games in which they allowed 23 and 24 shots on net respectively. These two also have almost identical records, as New Jersey is 7-9 while the Caps are 7-8. However, the Devils strength of schedule ranks 7th in the league while Washington’s strength of schedule ranks 22nd. That matters, as the Caps have had it fairly easy and have not thrived while the Devils have had it tough and have the same number of wins as the Capitals. We stress value and there is no question we find some here in this live dog.
