Jarbo - If Jackie tries to "run" Oregon right into the ground, he will play into the only positive attribute of the Ducks D - their defensive line is perhaps the best in the Pac 10. The reason the ducks got blasted at the end of last season is they had the worst secondary in the country, which is not expected to be that much improved over last year. If Jackie wants to wear down the ducks, he better do it through the air.
Here are the notes I had on Georgia, when I decided on Clemson +3:
8/20 Injs and suspensions--lost it's 3rd defensive starter when star DE Will Thompson dislocated ankle (out for season). Also without starters - star S-Curry (frx leg), #3 DT Veal (v questionable for opener), and S Blue (torn knee ligament) who was to replace Curry. Three other DBs are suspended. Secondary is decimated.
8/20 Injs and suspensions--lost it's 3rd defensive starter when star DE Will Thompson dislocated ankle (out for season). Also without starters - star S-Curry (frx leg), #3 DT Veal (v questionable for opener), and S Blue (torn knee ligament) who was to replace Curry. Three other DBs are suspended. Secondary is decimated.
Going back to the original question asked by crmsnrd, both these games are upsets waiting to happen. I already have a write-up on the Georgia game in my thread, and my write-up on the Oregon game is coming up very soon.
When something seems "wrong" with the spread -- like "why is this so low" -- that means there's nothing wrong with it at all, that we need to understand the game in a new way.
If the spread seems too low, it's because the books are hoping we will take the favorite thinking that we're getting a good bargain. This is what creates the "public." Remember, only the books get bargains; we get screwed. Sometimes what's the least obvious is the most obvious of all. Plays cannot be rational. If we bet all our games with our rationality, we'll be broken within a month. The public plays what's rational.
My rule of thumb is if a spread seems really weird, the least rational is the way to go.
Anyway, just my 2 pennies.
When something seems "wrong" with the spread -- like "why is this so low" -- that means there's nothing wrong with it at all, that we need to understand the game in a new way.
If the spread seems too low, it's because the books are hoping we will take the favorite thinking that we're getting a good bargain. This is what creates the "public." Remember, only the books get bargains; we get screwed. Sometimes what's the least obvious is the most obvious of all. Plays cannot be rational. If we bet all our games with our rationality, we'll be broken within a month. The public plays what's rational.
My rule of thumb is if a spread seems really weird, the least rational is the way to go.
Anyway, just my 2 pennies.
Here's an interesting tidbit... I have had many productive years in college football but I typically start my serious plays after teams have about three games under their belts... mainly because almost all of the early season info is just pure hype and the numerous changes in college football, both players and coaches, is damn near impossible to predict with any degree of confidence without seeing them on the field. I have been looking hard for early season opportunities and one that popped out, and really made some sense when you thing about it, was as follows: a large part of early public perception of college teams is driven by media hype... and much of the media hype is based on an unexpected finish during the previous season... taking this thinking a step farther I went back and looked at teams that had made radical jumps in the final season polls from the previous year... from 2001 to 2002 such teams were 0-7 against the line as road favorites for their first road game of the year... tracking this into previous years it held up at a strong clip (although off the top of my head I do not remember the exact count) over around twenty observations... it makes sense from several angles... the public over prices these teams, the media all of the sudden focuses on their success and thirdly (and I feel this is very important) it takes a very capable coach to keep a bunch of young men who have just significantly over-achieved to stay focused... why did I write this in this thread? Because Georgia fits this situation even without their injury problems.
Good luck,
Hogjawl
Good luck,
Hogjawl
Silver7
It appears you missed the topic in this thread....OSt wasn't mentioned anywhere.
If you are refering to the Oregon State BEAVERS, they are playing Sacremento State. The Oregon DUCKS are playing Mississippi State and are currently favored by 4.5. No argument from me that USC has a great DL, thus the qualifier in my comment about the DUCKS having "perhaps" the best DL in the Pac-10, led by runstuffers Ngata and Olshansky.
You were right on with two points though. Oregon State is in Corvallis...and indeed I was born and raised there. If you would like to assess my knowledge on the Oregon State BEAVERS defensive line, or what I think OSt chances are against SacSt, feel free.
For everyone else who actually cares about the MSU-UofO game, I will tell you that the Oregon DUCK faithful are not very confident in their team this year, and certainly not confident in this game. DUCK fans are very knowledgeable and pragmatic about their football team. I personally will not bet this game as there are way too many unknowns on both sides. If MSU can assemble any kind of a pass offense, expect them to exploit the Ducks secondary. As far as coaching, Bellotti has it all over Sherrill.
It appears you missed the topic in this thread....OSt wasn't mentioned anywhere.
If you are refering to the Oregon State BEAVERS, they are playing Sacremento State. The Oregon DUCKS are playing Mississippi State and are currently favored by 4.5. No argument from me that USC has a great DL, thus the qualifier in my comment about the DUCKS having "perhaps" the best DL in the Pac-10, led by runstuffers Ngata and Olshansky.
You were right on with two points though. Oregon State is in Corvallis...and indeed I was born and raised there. If you would like to assess my knowledge on the Oregon State BEAVERS defensive line, or what I think OSt chances are against SacSt, feel free.
For everyone else who actually cares about the MSU-UofO game, I will tell you that the Oregon DUCK faithful are not very confident in their team this year, and certainly not confident in this game. DUCK fans are very knowledgeable and pragmatic about their football team. I personally will not bet this game as there are way too many unknowns on both sides. If MSU can assemble any kind of a pass offense, expect them to exploit the Ducks secondary. As far as coaching, Bellotti has it all over Sherrill.
