2 anti-public picks for Friday night (YTD: 3-1)

[quantumleap]

I've been taking my share of crap for going against the public but that's ok as most of it has been informative and good-natured. I'm learning.

The premise of these bets are high-profile football games (like MNF, SNF, NCAA weeknight games) and where the public is either on one team or a team is a favorite of a lot of people like Notre Dame or the Oakland Raiders, then fade the favorite. My only loss this year was USC over Arkansas.

Army +17 over IA State
Everything in my brain tells me that ISU is the pick here. Army has sucked for years and ISU has done well especially this year. However, ISU has a large percentage of people choosing them.

NMSU +28.5 over Cal
Another one that screams Cal. New Mexico State who???? They are 0-3. Cal is being talked about as a possible upsetter of USC. I see a backdoor cover here.

Good luck and feel free to flame away.

 

[Micelli]

The squares given u lip will be payin out the a$$ in the long run...like both plays. good luck to u sir.

Micelli

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks Micelli. It will be interesting to watch.

 

[Insiders]

quantumleap

Well Army maybe the right side. But after Baylor, yes thats right Baylor opened 4 last week on the raod at Army and won by 10 with 2 chances to score that didnt. Well i am NOT a fan of road chalk whatsoever but i think Iowa St is the right side here with them gettin extra week off. Iowa St has much better defense than Baylot ever thought of haveing. Cant see Army puttin up many, if any points in this spot. obtw i loved that Florida baseball game last night !

 

[quantumleap]

quantumleap

Well Army maybe the right side. But after Baylor, yes thats right Baylor opened 4 last week on the raod at Army and won by 10 with 2 chances to score that didnt. Well i am NOT a fan of road chalk whatsoever but i think Iowa St is the right side here with them gettin extra week off. Iowa St has much better defense than Baylot ever thought of haveing. Cant see Army puttin up many, if any points in this spot. obtw i loved that Florida baseball game last night !

Sure seems to me too that IA St is the right side here. But maybe the linesmakers know something we don't. Army 7, ISU 7.

 

[Insiders]

quantumleap

Yeppers you are Dead Right as Army might beat this team SU.

 

[quantumleap]

quantumleap

Yeppers you are Dead Right as Army might beat this team SU.

I was looking at the ML on this game and ISU was at -1100. I thought certainly I could put up $1100 to make $100 easy. I'm glad I didn't now. Plenty of game left to play though.

 

[quantumleap]

1st game wins. YTD: 4-1.

 

[quantumleap]

Late game a winner by 1/2 point. I'll take it.

YTD: 5-1.

Maybe a couple picks on Saturday.

 

[919]

in the long run, fading the public when the line moves in the opposite direction (especially late) should be very profitable.

nice work.

 

[ddarkside]

I've followed your last two picks even if with a lower stake than i bet on soccer, but money is money
I think it's very interesting the way you choose your plays...

Keep up the good work

dd