2.28.05 (155-132-7 ytd)

[ApolloKid]

3 units: 0-1
2 units: 32-25
1 unit: 123-106-7
Total: 155-132-7 +12.1 units

2-1 on Sunday. Split on the the two-unit plays (Wright and Ohio St.). Rice was the one-unit winner.

One over night:

732 N. Arizona -4 vs. Montana 2 units
-- This is another situational spot. Northern Arizona needs to win this game to get into the Big Sky tournament. Handicappers tend to have different opinions on "must-win" games. I agree not all are postive EV. However, Montana comes in already knowing that it has locked up one of the top four seeds in the conference, and they are hosting a conference tourney game later in the week. They are the third seed and host either Northern Arizona or E. Washington depending on what Northern Arizona does in this spot. I tend to think Montana will hold back something and not play its best players the entire second half for fear of injury and not wanting to show plays/sets to a team they will most likely face on the weekend. N. Arizona isn't that bad of a team at home either.
GL.

 

[ApolloKid]

Fyi

Here is probably the most interesting game of the day. I am not playing this game, just pointing out some info.

717 Middle Tennessee State -2.5 at Florida International
-- If Mid. Tennessee St. wins this game, they draw N. Mexico St. in the first round of the Sun Belt Tourney. Not bad, right. If they lose this game, they draw N. Texas in the first round, who is the host of the tournament. Very interesting situation and you'd have to think Mid. Tenn. St. knows this and doesn't want to play N. Texas on their home floor. But I don't like Mid. Tenn. St. on the road so no play. FIU has a decent home record as well.

GL.

 

[ApolloKid]

adding

712 Towson St. +10 vs. Drexel 1 unit
-- This is a dangerous spot for Drexel to be laying 10 points on the road. Seedings are already set for the Colonial Athletic Association tourney. Not sure if Drexel will give a full effort here. If Towson wasn't so bad, I'd probably bump it up to 2 units. This hit 11 for about a half hour, but was quickly back down to 10.

Still looking at a few others.

GL.

 

[KYWILDCAT]

Good write up on MTSU .. I posted last night to me this is one game I love,,

Probably best thing that happen was Western losing and I think MTSU wins this one going away tonight. They for sure know what this win does and NEw Mex St is who they want to play..
Middle has been playing well of late and I looked FL Int does take of business at home but still going to go against them ..

Just my opinion and I'm going to play MTSU

Old Cat

 

[Opie]

If Towson wasn't so bad, I'd probably bump it up to 2 units.

After Tigers last home game v. W&M, I'm done with those clowns. That was embarrassing. They showed signs of life during the year, but right now they are playing horrible basketball.

 

[ApolloKid]

I am somewhat surprised with the line move today on New Mexico. New Mexico is a team gunning for an at-large bid and will probably bring their A game tonight to Vegas. I may play that game late and will post if a good number becomes widely available. Tomorrow's card has some good spots on it as well.


KYWILDCAT -- I think that's the right side. I just am real careful with the road chalk. It's just my personal preference to not play it the majority of the time. I do like motivation, and rank it only second to home/road dichotmy in my handicapping. MTSU definitely has motivation tonight.

OPIE -- I can understand your frustration, especially after a bad loss like Towson recently had. If anything, though, after an embarassing loss you would think they would have a tough practice and probably come out motivated tonight. I really like the play more because I don't see how Drexel will come in thinking they need to play a full 40 minutes against such a bad team in the last game of the season. Again, though, it's just a unit play. I wouldn't bet any more on it.

GL tonight.

 

[kidslick]

APOLLO

<!--StartFragment --> ll win the Horizon League tournament

<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>101 Wisc. Milwaukee </TD><TD> -140 </TD></TR><TR><TD>102 Wisc. Green Bay </TD><TD> +120 </TD></TR><TR><TD>103 Detroit </TD><TD> +200 </TD></TR><TR><TD>104 Illinois (CHI) </TD><TD> +400 </TD></TR><TR><TD>105 Wright State </TD><TD> +400 </TD></TR><TR><TD>106 Loyola Chicago </TD><TD> +400 </TD></TR><TR><TD>107 Butler </TD><TD> +700 </TD></TR><TR><TD>108 Cleveland State </TD><TD> +4000 </TD></TR><TR><TD>109 Youngto</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>any thoughts on this

 

[ApolloKid]

Kidslick,

The tournament has a weird set up. Not sure if you know the specifics, so I'll write it up briefly:
-- First round is tomorrow with some teams hosting games.
-- Those winners advance to Wisconsin-Milwaukee's home court to play in the quarterfinals. Detroit has a first round bye but plays in this round. Those games are on Friday.
-- Then on Saturday, the winners of the quarterfinals meet Wisc.-GB and Wis.-Mil., who are the one and two seeds.

That's the reason I write. GB and Milwaukee have a huge advantage in this tournament because of the structure. They get byes and no extra travel. Mil. doesn't have to travel at all. Plus, the semi finals are Saturday and the finals are Tuesday to accomodate ESPN. Huge gap in terms of waiting around for a game that means everything for the winner. The whole tournament is set up to send the conference champ to the dance, because they hold the tourney at the conference champs home site.

The chalk on Wisconsin Milwaukee at -140 doesn't look all that bad considering they will most likely play on their homecourt in the final barring an upset. You could always take Wis. Mil because they aren't going to be that cheap in the tourney final, and then buy back the dog and shoot for a middle. Plus, Wis-Mil is really a good team.

That said, these mid major tournaments are wacky, IMO. If I was betting, I'd take Wisc.-Milwaukee probably. If you want to take a longer shot, Loyola-Chicago has played lights out lately, and Wright State is playing well too.

GB, Detroit and Illinois-Chicago have virtually no value in my opinion based on price. The price on GB is one of the worst I have ever seen. I can't believe books hang this crap.

Hope this helps.

GL and let me know what you do.

 

[ApolloKid]

Kidslick

I love your avatar by the way.

I just ran through the brackets quickly on paper. Here's what I see

Loyola at +400 seems like a decent play, but will run into a rested Milwaukee in the semi-finals. That's tough.

Wright St. at +400 probably has an easier run if they win tomorrow, because they get a weak Detroit team and then possibly Green Bay. You never know with Green Bay. They suck on the road.

Milwaukee seems to have the easiest road here, in theory, but if they have to play Loyola who just can't seem to lose right now, that could get interesting.

I hope this helps and is not too confusing.

GL.