2.20.05 (138-112-7 ytd)

[ApolloKid]

3 unit: 0-1
2 unit: 24-21
1 unit: 114-90-7
Total: 138-112-7 +12.5 units

5-8 on Saturday. Not a good day overall. A couple of bright spots: LSU and Fullerton. Other than that, a lot of garbage. One so far for today:

906 Florida St. +4.5 vs. Georgia Tech 2 units
-- I realize Tech is back to full strenght and coming off a tough home loss, but the Seminoles play very well at home, and find themselves looking for a win as well. I like the fact this game is one national television, which is a little added motivation for the home team. G-Tech doesn't deserve to be laying so many on the road.

Still looking at a few more, including Pittsburgh now that the line has gone up.

GL.

 

[ApolloKid]

adding

903 Pitt +6 at Villanova 1 unit
-- I don't understand this line move except for people wanting to play chalk and then chasing the line as it moved away from them. Pitt is probably playing the second-best ball in the Big East right now behind BC. I think they'll keep this game inside the number.

Still looking at two more games (Wake and Seton Hall). I missed a chance at 7 with Seton Hall, but I'm hoping it gets back there. Wake should go off as at least a 5-point dog.

GL.

 

[ProphetablePicks]

you can can get 7 on Seton Hall. Just buy a half or even full point.I have been buying points for years and it helps!

 

[ApolloKid]

Yes, buying is an option, but I'd rather wait until closer to tip. Both games go off later.


GL today PP.

 

[CD155]

of course you should always buy, never leave on .5 that I learned before I could walk.


If you don't know that this is not for you.

Knowledge is a key to beating this game

 

[CD155]

why wait what happens if Wake gets hit and goes down to 3.5 and games lands on 5 then what

 

[ApolloKid]

CD155,

I can only assume that you are kidding with some of your respones.

Never leave a game on the hook and buy the extra half point? Do you have any idea what that is doing to your long-term winning percentage? Probably not. I play mostly at reduced vig shops because reduced vig, which INCREASES your break even percentage, is postive EV. Buying points increases your vig, which is negative EV in any sport. (NFL football is different, especially on the 3 and 7, but we are talking college baskets here.) Further, college basketball is the king of random finishes, perhaps more than even the NBA. The only time I'd recommend buying in basketball is when you are shooting for a middle and you wan't clean numbers. NBA game opens at 4, steams up to 6.5. YOu have a ticket on four and you wan't to buy back the middle. Of course, buy 7 for a small, unless you really like the side.

As for waiting on Wake Forest, I have to ask you: Why wouldn't I wait? When I posted, line was a consensus four at the Lives Lines on this Web site. Line is now a consensus 4.5, with Pinny holding out before they will move to 4.5 later (at reduced vig, by the way). Duke is the mother of all public teams in sport. Duke lines will consistently move up when Duke is the chalk, unless the sharp money pounds a line that is off early. And if the line moved against me, I'd mostly likely pass, as I do a lot of the time. It's just one game over the course of a long season.

CD, I don't post this to start any arguments. I sincerely hope you win, as I do with any player. But there is a method to the madness, and math is a big part of that madness. I highly suggest buying a good book on sports betting, like Stanford Wong's Sharp Sports Betting, which goes into the math in much more detailed. I wish I was a little better at math, but I've learned a lot the last few years which has helped, much of it because of that book.

One thing I definitely don't like is you telling me what is and isn't for me. 55 percent over 250 plays against widely available lines posted at this Web site with no past posts. I think I've earned my stripes this season.

GL, buddy.

 

[dolphin]

Actually, during this time of the year, esp. mid-Jan though the end of conference tournaments, buying off an odd half point between 1-7 points IS correct. I think this year has been a bit of an aberration with fewer games falling very close to lines, but if you do a 500 game sample you'll find I'm correct.

Dolphin

 

[dolphin]

One more point...

The better one's historical 'capping percentage, the MORE you want to do this, as your losses are a little more likely to be close than a random bettor.

 

[ApolloKid]

Dolphin, you say "this time of the season." Does that start on Feb. 1, Feb 3, Jan. 31, Jan. 17? See what I mean here. When is this part of the season. I don't know and no one else does either.

And, Dolphin, are you saying that a 55 percent or better handicapper should always buy a .5 point? Or, are you saying you should only buy a half point when you feel you'll "need it" for a particular game. I'm 55 percent against widely available lines this year. Should I have bought the half yesterday with Texas Tech who got throttled?

Anyhow, Steelrunner asked for my Ivy League record on Friday I believe. Here it is for conference games posted on the Rx. I was 0-2 over the weekend. This doesn't include non-conference games, which I believe would bring it up a little. It's nothing special, though.

2 unit plays: 2-2
1 unit plays: 3-2-2
Total: 5-4-2

 

[Tulsa]

Apollo Kid, thanks for your great posts. By the way, didn't you know,

"Knowledge is a key to beating this game."

With gems like that I am sure you will be well into the 70% range soon!!!! LOL

Don't even spend a moment replying to sh!t like that. Wow. Take care and keep it up. tulsa

 

[kidslick]

this is a tough subject

i for one will not buy the half point the juice will kill ya in the long run

play at shops WITH JUICE AT 107 and 105 are huge for the everyday gambler

huge THIS IS SO IMPORTANT..

also give me a shop that has overnight lines as early as possible

 

[ApolloKid]

adding

923 Wake Forest +4.5 at Duke 1 unit
-- Duke's mega strong at home and I really dislike Wake Forest's defense. But I think Wake has a good shot a getting an outright win here, let alone a cover.

For anyone that cares, I'm going under in the All-Star game tonight and I played under for the first quarter.

Anyone see tomorrow's college lines yet? Talk about shaving points off the home dogs.

GL.

 

[dolphin]

reply

Dolphin, you say "this time of the season." Does that start on Feb. 1, Feb 3, Jan. 31, Jan. 17? See what I mean here. When is this part of the season. I don't know and no one else does either.

And, Dolphin, are you saying that a 55 percent or better handicapper should always buy a .5 point? Or, are you saying you should only buy a half point when you feel you'll "need it" for a particular game. I'm 55 percent against widely available lines this year. Should I have bought the half yesterday with Texas Tech who got throttled?

(I wasn't vague. I said mid-Jan through conference tournaments. Anyone who has the time and the scores can go back for five years of data and see for themselves. I said the better the 'capper the MORE CLEAR it becomes to buy those half points with the line 1-7 (incl. buying to 7 from 7.5 when betting a fav.). These are only buys OFF OF half-point lines. If you are running poorly you'll feel like an idiot. It's sort of like a non-counter not taking insurance when having blackjack - on the advice of a good book or expert - then complaining after the dealer also has blackjack several times. We're only talking probabilities, not guarantees. Do what you are comfortable with, but I'm sure I am right...even if it is fairly close. The number which is MOST clear is 7, due to it being the number at which some teams will finally stop fouling late.)

Anyhow, Steelrunner asked for my Ivy League record on Friday I believe. Here it is for conference games posted on the Rx. I was 0-2 over the weekend. This doesn't include non-conference games, which I believe would bring it up a little. It's nothing special, though.

2 unit plays: 2-2
1 unit plays: 3-2-2
Total: 5-4-2

Best of fortune to you