2/16 NCAA BIG Monday

BlackampGold · Feb 15, 2004

Plays range 1-3 units

YTD = 210-202-9 50.97% -16.16U

I am down on 2 plays and despite my earlier rant, one is a total but it is an OVER:

Oklahoma State -1 2.14/2.00

Here are some supporting stats:

OSU #2 in Big 12 scoring @ 78.8 PPG. OK #11 @ 67.2 PPG. OSU #1 in FG% @ 52.30%. OK #12 @ 41%. OSU #2 3-point shooting @ 39.7% and OK is #9 defending the three @ 35.5%. OK is only #10 3-point shooting @ 32% & OSU is 5th defending the three @ 31.9%. OSU has a +16.8 scoring margin as well.

Simply put, Oklahoma State is the superior offensive team by far among the two good defensive teams. Obviously home court is a factor but I think Oklahoma State erases any doubts that they are a team to be reckoned with come tourney time.

Elon/Chattanooga OVER 154.5 2.12/2.00

Elon defeated Chattanooga in the first matchup 88-70 at home. Chattanooga is the poor man's NC Tarheels, all offense, no defense. CHAT averages 83.6 PPG, #1 in the Southern Conference and allows 76.1 PPG, #11. Elon allows 73.8 PPG, #10. Both teams are solid from the free throw line; CHAT 72.4% & Elon @ 69.7%. CHAT shoots 50.1% from the field. CHAT shoots 38.2% from three-point range and Elon is 11th in the conference at defending the three @ 38.1%. After getting routed by 18 in the first matchup, CHAT will be looking to run Elon out of the gym. They will probably do just that but Elon will be filling the basket in this one as well.

Co-Captain · Feb 16, 2004

B&G, have spoken in awhile, but I love the info you are providing with your picks. I apprecite the work you are putting in. Good Luck to you today and Aloha CC.

BlackampGold · Feb 16, 2004

Co-Cap - I was mostly using a simple system early in the season that was hitting close to 55% consistently which was generating a decent profit but as the season progressed it became weaker as the lines got sharper. I am buckling down and doing more thorough research and when time permits, I want to share my findings. Keep up the great work Cap & thank you.

jimmymo · Feb 16, 2004

B&G -- very nice work with n. carolina yesterday -- once i say you were going large, i made the plunge (albeit smaller) as well.

thanks and good luck today

Kojak · Feb 16, 2004

Looks like a sharp card! Best of luck as I think you sweep tonight!

BlackampGold · Feb 16, 2004

Jimmy Mo & Kojak - Thanks guys, have a great night!

Niagara PK 1.07/1.00

Niagara fell at home by 10 to Fairfield just nine days ago. Fairfield shot 52% from the field in that game while their season average is only 40.9%. Niagara scored only 59 points while they average 82.3 PPG. Please note that Fairfield accomplished this without two of their top scorers who they lost in January. Fairfield really struggled at home against Canisius shooting only 34% on Saturday as they lost in overtime. Fairfield is a solid defensive team but I am betting that they can't outscore Niagara again. After a poor performance and probably losing some confidence, Fairfield would likely have been better of with a road game today. Instead, I believe they will press in front of the home crowd and Niagara, seeking revenge, will take care of business.

Seton Hall -9 2.08/2.00

BC may be without Craig Smith which would make this play even better but we will assume only that he may not be 100%. Both teams coming off a loss so very important game for both teams but Seton Hall should be too tough on their home court. They are 7-2 ATS at home, 2-1 ATS after an upset loss and they have all kinds of motivation - #1 they don't want to lose on their home court and start being discussed as a "bubble" team and #2 they will be looking to even the score with BC who beat them at BC earlier this season. BC will be motivated for sure but I don't believe they will be able to stay in this game: Seton Hall is #2 in the Big East in scoring defense allowing only 63 PPG and #4 in scoring offense at 73.7%. BC is reanked 7th and 8th in the same categories. Seton Hall has a very balanced scoring attack and plays smothering defense at home. I like this stat - BC is ranked 10th in the conference at defending the three at 34.3%. Seton Hall is #4 in 3-point shooting @ 37.1% - Look for a BIG night from Andre Barrett stretching the lead in this one to get the cover.

Good luck.

BlackampGold · Feb 16, 2004

Well, bad beat to start the week with Fairfield coming back from a 19 point deficit but it was only a 1-unit play with my larger plays to come.

I have one more play to add:

BYU -5 2.10/2.00

There are plenty of matchup and statistical advantages in this one but I will demonstrate a different angle: Check out the Mountain West Standings:

Air Force 8-1 18-3
Utah 7-2 19-5
Brigham Young 5-4 15-7
New Mexico 4-5 13-9
UNLV 3-5 12-9
San Diego St. 3-5 12-11
Colorado St. 3-6 11-11
Wyoming 2-7 9-13

Utah is in 1st place @ 7-2 and is at Wyoming, last place @ 2-7. The line in this game opened at -1.5. Now we also have BYU at 5-4 taking on 3-6 Colorado State. Now, on the surface this would appear to be a closer matchup. Using the Utah/Wyoming is your starting point you would expect Colorado State maybe even to be a slight favorite. Instead, BYU is laying 5! Colorado State appears to be a steal, right? Well, many players will look at this game this way, especially since this will be a public game being on ESPN Big Monday. No doubt Nelson's questionable status affects this line but many who wager on this game have no idea about that.

In my eyes, this logic does not work in reverse with Wyoming or even Oklahoma State however because their opponnets are superior to them. Anyway, thought this was an interesting way to look at this one instead of reciting stats & matchups.

Good luck!