2/10 Tuesday NHL Discussion

[BlackampGold]

Okay guys - we had some real good discussion in here before the break. Let's use this thread to breakdown the matchups.

Anything that would be helpful to cap a game is what we are looking for; trends, who's hot/not, injuries, line movement, consensus, starting goalies, sharp book leans, etc. Try to keep picks without analysis/info. out.

Here's to a great second half -

 

[SportSavant]

One thing I know is that anytime you can get a 1.5 goals at home you should take a long hard luck at that game....

365 is currently offering +1.5 -120...Pinny will likely offer better. Not sure if this will qualify as a play but in all likely hood it may.

Of course Boston is a good road team...& Pitts is awful, but kinda like a double digit home dog in NFL...got take a good long look...I have a feeling they can skate with boston in a quick paced hich scoring game.

 

[jwblue]

Bos -.5 at Pinny(maybe ML instead)- Raycroft is white hot. So is Boston.

NJ/Phil Over 4.5 (+108): Sean Burke, who has been ordinary this year, might be a litte shaky in his first start for Philly. Flyers can score at home.

SJ ML (-108): San Jose playing well. Buffalo has been playing over their heads. (-108) is cheap.

ATL/CAL over 5- Atlanta can score anywhere. Atlanta can't stop anyone. Have not won in forever. I project no less than a push.

MON/FLA under 5- 2 of 4 Florida's top goal scorers are out. Montreal doesn't score a ton and have not played well lately. Theodore solid for Mon.

Minnesota ML- Kings will be without 2 out of top 3 defensemen. Kings playing over their heads. Bound to come back down to earth. Unfortunate for me being a Kings fan. If they had all their players, they would be a strong contender for the Cup.

Colorado ML- I might pick them in just about every game this year.

Ottowa ML (maybe even -.5): They are angry over their last loss vs. arch rival Toronto, blowing 4 goal lead. Have not won in three games. Thats too long of a stretch for this team. St. Louis struggling.

IS

 

[VegasVic]

Long time follower of this forum but I contribute on another. Here are my plays for the day. Although taking heavy favorites is not my usual m.o. these two stand out.
good luck

Toronto/Tampa Bay Over 5 -108

If Ed Belfour was playing in this game I’d have to weigh this selection heavily. I might still go over but their would be a some serious thought put into it. Without a injured Belfour, (who didn’t make the trip to Florida and remained in Toronto to rest his back), and a Trevor Kidd in his place this is a no brainer.
Kidd has allowed 8 goals in the last two games since Belfour went down.

What can you say about the Tampa Bay Lightning. They are a over machine. 13 times in their last 18 games they have flown over the total.
In the last ten meetings between these two teams going back three years they have averaged 5.4 goals per game. Although most of that is due to the Maple Leafs who averaged 3.5 goals while the Bolts responded with a meager 1.9. Incidentally the Leafs won nine of those ten games.
However the majority of those loses were to a very different Lightning squad and not nearly as a explosive offense than what this team has matured into. And most important that was with a healthy Ed Belfour

There will be a balance of power tonight and getting over the five will be assured.



Boston Bruins -.5 -218

Yeah I know…lay over two bucks on a game? I don’t do it more than a couple times a year but I believe this game is too tempting to pass on. If you like you could just as easily lay the goal and a half and save the high juice. But no mater how you slice it, this heavy favorite will be one I won’t miss.

The B’s find themselves starting the homestretch two points out of first and begin a six game road trip that will take them to challenging sites as Ottawa, Philadelphia, and Toronto. So starting it off tonight with a victory against the leagues worst team is imperative.

Boston wins ugly but you can’t deny the results. They are led by potential rookie of the year Andrew Raycroft who in his last 12 games has only surrendered 17 goals for a 1.42 GAA. He has steadily gotten better as the year has progressed. And tonight he faces the NHL’s lowest scoring offense averaging less than 2 goals a game.

Boston comes into Pittsburgh on a five game winning streak. For some unknown reason they have executed better on the road than home compiling a 15-9-4 record away from the Fleet Center.

Pittsburgh goes for their spot in infamy tonight with the NHL record book. A lose would give them a tie for the most consecutive home loses at 11.
The Penguins have lost 11 straight overall, 13 of 14, and 17 of their last 19. No matter how you look at their record, stats, GAA/ Goals scored, it spells one way….BAD. Their only bright spot of the entire season, (Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who was rookie of the month in October), was sent down to the minors because of a contractual incentive for games played that the Penguins need to make sure he doesn’t realize. Goals aren’t the only thing this troubled team is short of. Money would be first.

The price is high but it warrants the risk. Take the Bruins to start off a important road trip in winning fashion and take a step closer to first place.


Ottawa Senators -.5 -151

Another big favorite but they’ve been coming in a respectable and profitable clip so why not?
The Sens are another team desperate to take advantage of a team heading in the wrong direction. If the season ended today their opposition, (the Blues), would be in a four way tie for a last spot that only has room for three. A month ago they were considered contenders for the cup but more of their tale of woe later.

The Senators open up a big three game home stand against St.Louis, Boston, and Montreal. The All-Star break couldn’t have come at a better time for them. They had lost 4 of their last 5 going into last weekend but they had four games on the road losing to the NHL’s elite Dallas, Toronto, and New Jersey. They then had a four to nothing lead on the Maple Leafs last Thursday, in their one home game, only to see Toronto score 5 unanswered goals and win in overtime.

They’ve had five days to shake off that nightmare collapse of a game and mend their wounds. I believe that a deep, quality team as this will come out with a fire in their eyes and rebound in a positive direction going into the last 28 games of the season. All teams hit a bump in the road during the season and for the Sens it came at the most perfect time.

Now for the tale of woe. The Blues are coming off a win but it was their first in nine games. The win stopped their longest losing streak since February of 1982. They’ve been consistent losers coming up short 7 of their last 9 attempts.
They have won only five times since December the 29th.

Now for a really amazing stat. Since 1/3 they have played 18 games. They have scored a total of 33 goals in those 18 games for a average of 1.8 goals per game. And they scored 12 of those in two games against the league’s bottom feeders, Chicago and Columbus. Take those two games out and they have averaged 1.3 in the remaining 16 games.

Truly one pathetic offense against the #1 highest scoring, (3.3 GPG), in the entire league. Look for more of the same tonight.



Los Angeles Kings +.5 -114



This game has large implications for the playoffs, (although don’t they all nearly halfway into February). But the big inter-conference games lend themselves to a tight checking, conservative brand of hockey that seems to end up in a tie more often than not. Part of the problem that hockey faces today is the unwillingness of teams to open up a inter-conference game that is tied late. And once it does reach overtime again they seem to be content with playing for the one point and protect against their opposition from grabbing two.
And when you talk playing to a stalemate you have to talk Minnesota Wild. Playing their western division counterparts this year the Wild have come out tied 15 times in 43 games. Throw in 18 loses and quick math tells us they have only won 10 games out of those 43.

The Kings also have not played much different going 14-14-12 within the west. They have done the most with the least all season long and are one of the real success stories of the league. They ride a 6 game undefeated streak and having lost only once in their last nine face Minnesota for the third time this year in which both games have ended in predictable fashion, (both 2-2 ties) In the last four years of ten battles between these two the Kings have come up short only three times, (3-3-4).
Minnesota has won their last two but have not played well lately losing four of seven.



NHL to Date 46-32-3 +14.19

 

[SSI]

will list my plays in B/G' thread pick tonight, just some tidbits.

SJ/Buff: home team is 14-0-4 in last 18 games.
NJ/Phil: Jersey is 6-1-2 in last 9 games and 3-0-1 in last 4 trips to philly.
Tor/Tb: Tor has won 9 straight meetings.
Bos/Pitt: Bos is 12-4-2 in last 18 meetings.
LA/Minn: LA is 3-0-3 in last 6 trips to minny.

just some trend talk, i have just started on todays card.. to be honest, the trendy things make up no more than 15-20% of my thinking on a game.. Its more to confirm a (already made selection).

 

[BlackampGold]

I see Pinnacle offering better prices on Calgary, Calgary OVER, and TB OVER so if you put stock into this their leans would be Atlanta, Atlanta UNDER, & TB UNDER.

Line movement to San Jose, NJ, Atlanta, NY Islanders although nothing out of the ordinary.


NJ is 5-1-1 as puck-line UNDERDOG & 1-6 OVER/UNDER in those games.

Philly is 1-4-1 OVER/UNDER after 3 days rest.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> will list my plays in B/G' thread pick tonight, just some tidbits.

SJ/Buff: home team is 14-0-4 in last 18 games.
NJ/Phil: Jersey is 6-1-2 in last 9 games and 3-0-1 in last 4 trips to philly.
Tor/Tb: Tor has won 9 straight meetings.
Bos/Pitt: Bos is 12-4-2 in last 18 meetings.
LA/Minn: LA is 3-0-3 in last 6 trips to minny.

just some trend talk, i have just started on todays card.. to be honest, the trendy things make up no more than 15-20% of my thinking on a game.. Its more to confirm a (already made selection). <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

great info...where do you locate all these trends?

 

[SSI]

got some of this off SIA's home page, its in the game previews.. Ive got several sites that i look at.. days like this (ncaab, nba, nhl) many games.. Im playing Nets -2 (1H) and thats it for now.. its nap time..

 

[SportSavant]

MIGHTY DUCKS OF ANAHEIM - Centers Michael Holmqvist (strained abdominal muscle) and Rob Niedermayer (groin) are day-to-day. Defenseman Sandis Ozolinsh (shoulder) is expected to be sidelined until mid-March. Left wing Mike LeClerc (knee) is sidelined indefinitely.

ATLANTA THRASHERS - *Defensemen Garnet Exelby (hip contusion) and Yannick Tremblay (hip strain), and goaltender Byron Dafoe (concussion) are day-to-day. Goaltender Jani Hurme (back), center Randy Robitaille (knee sprain), and defensemen Chris Tamer (back) and Andy Sutton (fractured foot) are sidelined indefinitely. Left wing Bill Lindsay (fractured larynx) is expected to miss the rest of the season.

BOSTON BRUINS - *Center Travis Green (ribs) is expected to miss Tuesday's game against Pittsburgh. *Defenseman Dan McGillis (hip/back) is questionable for Tuesday's game. Right wing Sandy McCarthy (jaw), left wing Michal Grosek (concussion), defensemen Ian Moran (right ankle) and Jonathan Girard (hip/pelvis), and goaltender Felix Potvin (knee strain) are sidelined indefinitely.

BUFFALO SABRES - *Defenseman James Patrick (shoulder) is expected to miss Tuesday's game against San Jose. Defenseman Jay McKee (knee) and center Tim Connolly (concussion) are sidelined indefinitely.

CALGARY FLAMES - *Goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff (knee) is probable for Tuesday's game against Atlanta. Left wing Dave Lowry (abdominal), and centers Stephane Yelle (left knee) and Blair Betts (shoulder) are sidelined indefinitely.

CAROLINA HURRICANES - Center Marty Murray (personal reasons) and defenseman Bob Boughner (knee) are day-to-day. Center Kevyn Adams (left MCL sprain) is expected to be sidelined until late February. Defenseman Aaron Ward (wrist surgery) is sidelined indefinitely.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS - Defenseman Alexander Karpovtsev (sore ankle) is day-to- day. Defensemen Steve McCarthy (groin) and Steve Poapst (concussion), center Scott Nichol (groin), goaltender Jocelyn Thibault (hip) and left wing Eric Daze (back) are sidelined indefinitely.

COLORADO AVALANCHE - *Center Andrei Nikolishin (abdominal strain) and right wing Dan Hinote (concussion) are day-to-day. Center Riku Hahl (shoulder) is expected to be sidelined until at least late February.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS - Left wing Rick Nash (foot) is day-to-day. Center Andrew Cassels (foot) and defenseman Duvie Westcott (hand) are sidelined indefinitely.

DALLAS STARS - Right wing Rob DiMaio (ankle) and goaltender Ron Tugnutt (groin) are day-to-day.

DETROIT RED WINGS - Left wing Steve Thomas (ribs) is day-to-day. Defenseman Niklas Kronwall (broken leg), goaltender Dominik Hasek (groin) and are sidelined indefinitely. Defenseman Derian Hatcher (torn ACL) is expected to be sidelined until at least February.

EDMONTON OILERS - Left wing Mike York (fractured index finger) and center Marty Reasoner (knee strain) are sidelined indefinitely.

FLORIDA PANTHERS - *Right wing Mikael Samuelsson (wrist) and center Viktor Kozlov (hand) are day-to-day. Defenseman Jay Bouwmeester (broken foot) is expected to be sidelined until at least early February. Center Stephen Weiss (knee) is expected to be sidelined until at least early March. Defenseman Branislav Mezei (eye), left wing Eric Messier (right wrist), and center Nathan Horton (shoulder) are sidelined indefinitely.

LOS ANGELES KINGS - *Defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky (upper body) and right wing Dustin Brown (ankle) are expected to miss Tuesday's game against Minnesota. Centers Jared Aulin (left shoulder), Jason Allison (whiplash) and Martin Straka (knee), right wing Adam Deadmarsh (concussion), and defenseman Aaron Miller (concussion) are sidelined indefinitely. Right wing Zigmund Palffy (dislocated right shoulder) is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

MINNESOTA WILD - Defenseman Andrei Zyuzin (groin) is day-to-day. Defenseman Brad Brown (wrist) is sidelined indefinitely.

MONTREAL CANADIENS - *Left wing Andreas Dackell (knee) and defenseman Craig Rivet (foot) are questionable for Tuesday's game against Florida.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS - Left wing Jim McKenzie (throat) is day-to-day. Center Rem Murray (neck) is sidelined indefinitely.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS - *Defenseman David Hale (knee) is expected to miss Tuesday's game against Philadelphia. Left wing Christian Berglund (bruised knee), defenseman Scott Stevens (post-concussion syndrome) and goaltender Corey Schwab (groin) are sidelined indefinitely.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS - Right wing Mark Parrish (ankle) and center Alexei Yashin (lacerated right forearm) are expected to be sidelined until late February.

NEW YORK RANGERS - Defensemen Vladamir Malakhov (wrist) and Tom Poti (back spasms) are day-to-day. Defenseman Darius Kasparaitis (left knee) is expected to be sidelined until early April. Center Eric Lindros (concussion), goaltender Dan Blackburn (shoulder), right wing Pavel Bure (knee), left wing Richard Scott (concussion) and defenseman Greg de Vries (knee) are sidelined indefinitely.

OTTAWA SENATORS - *Center Jason Spezza (leg), defensemen Zdeno Chara (upper body) and Wade Redden (flu) are expected to play Tuesday against St. Louis. *Center Antoine Vermette (left shoulder) is day-to-day. Center Mike Fisher (elbow), left wing Vaclav Varada (left knee) and defenseman Anton Volchenkov (shoulder) are sidelined indefinitely.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS - Goaltender Robert Esche (knee) is expected to be sidelined until at least late February. Defensemen Eric Desjardins (broken right arm) and Dennis Seidenberg (broken leg), left wing Donald Brashear (left knee sprain) and center Claude Lapointe (NHL Substance Abuse-Behavioral Health Program) are sidelined indefinitely.

PHOENIX COYOTES - Center Ivan Novoseltsev (concussion) is day-to-day. Goaltender Zac Bierk (hip flexor), right wing Mike Johnson (shoulder) and defenseman David Tanabe (torn ACL) are sidelined indefinitely.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS - Left wing Ramzi Abid (knee) and defenseman Michal Rozsival (knee) are sidelined indefinitely. Center Mario Lemieux (hip surgery) is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

ST. LOUIS BLUES - *Right wing Pavol Demitra (hip), defenseman Alexander Khavanov (bruised ankle), left wing Steve McLaren (head and jaw contusion) are questionable for Tuesday's game against Ottawa. Defensemen Matt Walker (groin), Al MacInnis (eye) and Barret Jackman (shoulder) are sidelined indefinitely.

SAN JOSE SHARKS - No significant injuries.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING - No significant injuries.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS - *Goaltender Ed Belfour (back), center Joe Nieuwendyk (ribs) and right wing Tom Fitzgerald (bruised foot) are expected to miss Tuesday's game against Tampa Bay. Defenseman Wade Belak (knee) is expected to be sidelined until late February. Right wing Alexander Mogilny (hip surgery) is expected to be sidelined until at least March.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS - Centers Matt Cooke (knee) and Mats Lindgren (back surgery), left wing Magnus Arvedson (knee), and defenseman Ed Jovanovski (shoulder) are sidelined indefinitely.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS - Defenseman Sergei Gonchar (shoulder) is expected to be sidelined until late February. Defenseman John Gruden (groin), goaltender Sebastien Charpentier (upper leg), right wing Brian Willsie (concussion) and center Michael Nylander (broken leg) are sidelined indefinitely.

 

[SSI]

i will say this, i like SJ until i read the stat about home teams being 14-0-4 in last 18.. so ill pass on this game, then we have 2 dynamite matchups (nj/phil, tb/tor), ive made money on all these so its tough to go against these 4 teams, if pressed id go with NJ and TB but think that ill pass on these 2 as well..

Guess that i am looking for reasons not to play games.. i cant take stl against ottowa and i am not laying over 2:1 on Ott, so that rules that game out for me. same thing for boston, im not playing pitt (no way), ask around savant, dont ask a bad time to do something good for you.. I like the kings but its a later start time, i may play them.. i will also look at totals later on, man its nap time now..

 

[BlackampGold]

SSI - Inspades pointed out that LA missing 2 defenseman tonight FYI.

 

[BlackampGold]

Vegas Vic - Nice job...