1st ARENA PLAYS--- WK 5

[TOMMYB]

1<SUP>st</SUP> ARENA PLAYS OF THE YEAR—week 5

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I’M USING A POWER RATING SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT ACE-ACE WAS USING IN HIS NFL PLAYS. IT PRODUCED WINNERS THE LAST 2 WEEKS SO HOPEFULLY IT WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE BEFORE IT NEEDS SOME ADJUSTING AS THE SEASON CONTINUES . ANYTHING I POST IS WHAT I HAVE ALREADY BET , YOUR CHOICE IS BET ALSO , FADE ME OR DO NOTHING . I DO NOT RATE MY PLAYS AND A BET IS 2% OF BANKROLL . YOU PLAY ACCORDING TO WHAT YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH .

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N.O. -5 THIS IS A COMBO BET , ON N.O. AND AGAINST TB WITH THEIR INJURIES.

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DAL +7 I SEE THESE TEAMS AS PRETTY EVEN AND I’LL TAKE THE 7.

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LA +4.5 SAME AS THE DAL. GAME , TAKING MORE THAN 3 LOOKS GOOD TO ME.

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GOOD LUCK

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GURU YOU GOT <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">A GREAT LINE AT PHIL PK</st1:address></st1:Street> , BUT I FEEL 7 IS TO MANY AS I HAVE THEM AT -3.5.

 

[Roxygurl]

welcome to the forum tommy b your opinions are needed here.i wish you much success and i will follow you closely and play some of these. its a great sport as you know but incredibly tough to master. good luck tommy b .~RG

 

[TOMMYB]

THANKS ROXY , I'LL DO MY BEST TO HELP , THIS IS MY 2nd YEAR WITH THIS TYPE OF FOOTBALL .

I HOPE I CAN BE AT LEAST HALF AS A CLASS ACT AS YOU ARE , I CALL YOU THE PEACE KEEPER. YOU HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA THESE SITES ARE DESIGNED TO SHARE INFO AND HELP ONE ANOTHER OUT , NOT BASH SOMEONE IF THEY HAVE A BAD WEEK OR TWO . AFTER ALL THIS IS NOT A SURE THING , AS ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN A GAME AND IT USUALLY DOES . TAKE CARE AND MAY ALL YOUR PICKS BE WINNERS.

 

[Roxygurl]

THANKS ROXY , I'LL DO MY BEST TO HELP , THIS IS MY 2nd YEAR WITH THIS TYPE OF FOOTBALL .

I HOPE I CAN BE AT LEAST HALF AS A CLASS ACT AS YOU ARE , I CALL YOU THE PEACE KEEPER. YOU HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA THESE SITES ARE DESIGNED TO SHARE INFO AND HELP ONE ANOTHER OUT , NOT BASH SOMEONE IF THEY HAVE A BAD WEEK OR TWO . AFTER ALL THIS IS NOT A SURE THING , AS ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN A GAME AND IT USUALLY DOES . TAKE CARE AND MAY ALL YOUR PICKS BE WINNERS.

you make me smile tommy b:biggrinin i thank you for the lofty compliment. i think egos get in the way in public forums such as this and we all know handicappers are a determined,pridefull, stubborn,focused and meticulous group. our picks are the RIGHT picks and too many people dont respect that of others here. a consistent handicapper doesnt have to announce his arrival on the scene with trumpets and horns heard only in his own head. prove yourself with solid plays and respect will follow. what im trying to say tommy is you ARE a class act as well. i'll be the cyber-ref here lord knows the mods cant be everywhere at the same time tho they try thier hardest.take care tommy i'll be here again. ~RG

 

[AFLGuru]

Well said Roxy

 

[Roxygurl]

Well said Roxy

thank you guru. its true isnt it? the time and effort put into what ever sport we cap is like gold. in the end the selections we make are the right ones until the games are final. how can anyone come into someone elses thread and declare thier picks are going to lose when they havent been played yet.theres ALOT of great handicappers on this site and a few really horrible ones too and those who believe will make money and those who doubt and bash will fade away. ~RG

 

[AFLGuru]

I'll say this though... Disputing picks is a part of the game of gambling. Good cappers are probably going to be on both sides of any given game in any given sport. For example, Ace is a tremendous capper. Him and I were on opposite sides many times over the few weeks he capped games. Granted, more often than not I would end up getting the better of him, but for the most part, I really felt like we were both going to end up with at least a shot to win the games. When everyone wins, it's a great feeling.

That being said, I don't have a problem saying that I believe that Dallas is going to get killed, but I think there's more value in taking Dallas than meets the eye with the line movement. You'll see me pass all sorts of stats around that may or may not persuade some people. My intent isn't to run cappers out of here or to discourage anyone. It's merely a forum. I have a good feeling that the general consensus of true AFL cappers on here is that all of the information and stats I track are valueable, though they may end up disagreeing with their own personal picks. But it's all okay. Again, Ace's line of there's many ways to the top of the mountain applies. Many different ways to win, particularly in a sport where the bettor might have a better knowledge than the bookie due to a lack of time, effort, and available information into the league. Roxy, I know you know that well thanks to the WNBA.

Best of luck this weekend Tommy. Love the VooDoo play.

--AFLGuru

 

[Roxygurl]

aflguru i have a really great friend here right now whos gone over all the information posted in the afl threads. she believes theres too much info to sift thru. she doesnt care HOW everyone arrived at the picks she just wants to know WHO to bet on. she says she doesnt want the recipe for creme brouillet just wants to eat it.lol.injury reports and such is too much to mess with as most good cappers cover that too so its wasted words. i understand cuz when we talk about betting we just exchange who we like and if we agree on a play we bet it.she loves tommy Bs post because his picks were clear. shes wondering if maybe you could post only your picks for all games this weekend. lmao. i know,shes high maintenance what can i say?:lolBIG: :nuts: :awesom: ~RG

 

[AFLGuru]

Roxy--

I've always been one to try to make sure that everyone knows what I'm thinking at a given moment when I pull the trigger on the game. This leads to a "no B.S." thought. Also, it provides information on the game for those that want it. I understand that at times it can be hard to sift through, but for the most part, if you're just interested in picks, just check the first page. The majority of the top of the first page is nothing but picks with the most brief of analytical thoughts. Later on is when I describe why I did what I did. I'll make the effort on game day to make sure that I leave what's being played that day for how much, etc... you know, all of the "pertinent information" that you and your friend are looking for. Be sure to keep me honest on that starting tomorrow night! But for those out there that understand or want to understand the game a bit more, I like to offer my thoughts when possible.

Best wishes!
--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[TOMMYB]

Guru And Roxy:

With The Information That Is Available On The Net There Aren't Many Secrets That Get Passed By That Give You An Edge . We All Have The Same Information And It Is The Weight That You Give Certain Things That Make Some A Winner And Others A Loser . It Takes Hard Work To Pick Winners And Sometimes You Are On The Right Side But Lose When A Tipped Pass Or A Call Or No Call Decides The Outcome Of A Game.

What I'm Saying Is That With All This Information At Ones Disposal You Can Make A Case For Either Side In A Game , The Picking Of The Info That Produces Winners In The Long Run Is Where Your Skill Comes In . We May Not Be Right All Of The Time But We Must Be Right More That We Are Wrong To Wind Up Ahead At The End Of The Season. And That Is Not An Easy Task . I Work Hard At This Because I Don't Like To Lose .

Getting A Good Line Is Part Of The Winning Process As That Could Turm A Mediocre Season Into A Good Season . I Don't Use Pinnacle But Next Year I Will Have An Account There Because I'm Getting Tired Of Driving All Over Vegas To Get A Half Point Better Line At A Different Casino .

Just A Few Of My Insights Into Getting An Advantage In This Game.

Luck To All

 

[sharky99]

GL on your plays Tommy

 

[AFLGuru]

Tommy--

I'm not going to lie to you and say that you're wrong about this day and age with the internet. The information is all out there. The key is you finding it before the man does. Though you'd like to think that "the man" is perfect and way ahead of anything, I think it's been pretty proven by the Pinnacle lines getting all messed up in light of some VERY important injuries that is worth merit.

Clearly, the Shredrick Bonner injury was key in the Orlando/Arizona game, as the Preds went from +4 to -3.5. Same was true in the Clint Dolezel injury in the Las Vegas/New York game... Vegas went from +3.5 to +10.5 (and noteworthy, still won the game). Now this rash of Predator injuries. My parents, die hard Preds fans, living in Orlando gives me a MASSIVE leg up on anything going on with the Preds. They attend practices, get fan club emails with very updated injury reports, and talk to the players, giving myself an advantage not found on the internet. My dad trying calling me about the Fleming injury at 10:30 in the morning... a solid 6 hours before the line closed. I also knew about the McGriff injury (and it seems more and more like he is not going to suit up on Friday... the Preds are likely going to let Fryzel start... kid's fast, but I have no idea how good of a receiver or kick returner he is) a solid 2 hours before the books did.

Having contacts can be key in this game. Though the information to the web will always happen eventually, having beat writers and other inside sources to a few of the teams will permanently give me that leg up. So to say that you're wrong would be a false statement... you absolutely are right about this day and age... but knowing pretty much everything about the Predators and Rattlers before anything leaks to the media, thus the internet is a huge leg up.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[TOMMYB]

Like Your Plays Sharky , And Good Luck With Them. That Tb Total Is Too Close To My # But I Think With Their Injuries It Has A Shot At The Under.


Guru , Agree With You On Your Take With Orlando , You Have What Is Called Inside Information On That Team . Something We Here In Vegas Joke About When The So Called Touts Spew Their Bull Crap About Having Contacts All Around The Country.

I'm Still Learning About Injury Adjustments In This League Some Make Large Adjustments To The Line And Outcome Of The Game . Others , Like A Back Up Qb Coming In And Playing Better Than The Starter And Wins A Game , Means I Have Alot To Learn Here , I'm More Comfortable Betting The Nfl Because I've Studied It For Years.

Well I'll Be Out All Day Looking At Investment Property And Won't Be Near A Comp. Until Tonight . Hope We All Win Our Bets . Good Luck.

 

[AFLGuru]

Nice pull with the Voodoo TommyB.

 

[sharky99]

Goodwork Tommy covered NO by 1, easy winnerarty: arty: arty: arty: arty:

 

[AFLGuru]

Goodwork Tommy covered NO by 1, easy winnerarty: arty: arty: arty: arty:

I love that... covering by 1 is an "easy winner..." Winners are winners sir. Get used to losing some of these games by the same point. If you took Tampa in this game, you got really screwed unless you had 6.5.

Back to work tonight!
--AFLGuru