Most of the line movement so far(sans injury) has been strictly public money, created by squares who have been reading their precious pre-season magazines and watching cable football shows. The computer generated groups will start popping up on Monday(Aug. 25), when the rest of the big outs(many off-screen) post their #s. Good Luck
It has been mostly public money since about after the first 2 hours that lines were originally released anyway. Remember that the lines moved BIG immediately after being released sometimes by 2 or 3 points (USC game for example.) I think that was smart money as they try to take advantage of a line as soon as they can. The latest line movement has been mostly public. Take USC line for example, it has fallen from -21 to -19.5 the last couple of weeks. That was the public reacting to the Sanchez news. The wise guys know that Sanchez being out in this game will not effect a USC win and cover against Virginia. BUT, the public gets scared and thinks they have an angle because of injury.
I personally don't expect a lot more line movement before gametime in these lines . . . . .
GoSooners, I think you are using LVSC openers, but as belly posted, the cris/bookmaker openers, which were available to bet offshore on 7-27, did not open at lines you have listed. I think some of the LV land casinos may have used LVSC openers at smaller limits.
The sunbelt games also opened alot higher than whats now available.
First lines I saw and bet dogs for some of the added sunbelt games were:
Indi -22 (20.5 & 21 now).
Auburn -28.5 (26 & 26.5 now).
So Miss -13.5 (-10 now).
Texas -26 (22 1/2 & 23 now).
Kansas -41 (ranges from 36 to 37.5 now).
Texas A&M no change from # I first saw. NO BET FOR ME ON THIS ONE.
Kan State -26.5 (23 1/2 & 24 now).
Belly, when you looked at the cris opening lines, what was So Cal? I played USC -19.5 that afternoon, but wondered if they used -17 from LVSC.
The sunbelt games also opened alot higher than whats now available.
First lines I saw and bet dogs for some of the added sunbelt games were:
Indi -22 (20.5 & 21 now).
Auburn -28.5 (26 & 26.5 now).
So Miss -13.5 (-10 now).
Texas -26 (22 1/2 & 23 now).
Kansas -41 (ranges from 36 to 37.5 now).
Texas A&M no change from # I first saw. NO BET FOR ME ON THIS ONE.
Kan State -26.5 (23 1/2 & 24 now).
Belly, when you looked at the cris opening lines, what was So Cal? I played USC -19.5 that afternoon, but wondered if they used -17 from LVSC.
The first three or four days was definitely smart money. There is not a snowballs chance in hell that the public is what moved a temple/army game a few hours and then more days after release. Simply impossible.
The fact that a lot of big favorites moved downward is also a sign of smart money. idaho game dropped , auburn game dropped , wisconsin game dropped , texas game dropped. These are public teams vs non-public teams. The public is only starting to bet games about now as the season approaches. It was prepared sharps that took advantage of openers. Some of the "syndicate" betting groups have yet to make their appearance ( possibly waiting out fall injuries ) but most of the "squares" are betting baseball right now and preseason football and dont like to tie their money up for a whole month while waiting for the games to begin. They are in it for the action.
As a general rule ,,,,,,, the early money is sharp money and the late money is square money. Has always been that way and will likely always be that way. There are times when the sharps wait on the squares to do what they expect and then nail it at a better number but usually they are locked in early.
The squares often don't even look at the lines until the day of the thursday night game.
The fact that a lot of big favorites moved downward is also a sign of smart money. idaho game dropped , auburn game dropped , wisconsin game dropped , texas game dropped. These are public teams vs non-public teams. The public is only starting to bet games about now as the season approaches. It was prepared sharps that took advantage of openers. Some of the "syndicate" betting groups have yet to make their appearance ( possibly waiting out fall injuries ) but most of the "squares" are betting baseball right now and preseason football and dont like to tie their money up for a whole month while waiting for the games to begin. They are in it for the action.
As a general rule ,,,,,,, the early money is sharp money and the late money is square money. Has always been that way and will likely always be that way. There are times when the sharps wait on the squares to do what they expect and then nail it at a better number but usually they are locked in early.
The squares often don't even look at the lines until the day of the thursday night game.
If anyone is interested in learning why the lines move and who is moving them, I recommend you read this book:
The Smart Money: How the World's Best Sports Bettors Beat the Bookies Out of Millions by Michael Konik
This is a very good read and very informative. You will not be able to set it down until you are finished with it though . . . . .
The Smart Money: How the World's Best Sports Bettors Beat the Bookies Out of Millions by Michael Konik
This is a very good read and very informative. You will not be able to set it down until you are finished with it though . . . . .
Konik used too much poetic license writing this book. He must have had a deadline.If anyone is interested in learning why the lines move and who is moving them, I recommend you read this book:
The Smart Money: How the World's Best Sports Bettors Beat the Bookies Out of Millions by Michael Konik
This is a very good read and very informative. You will not be able to set it down until you are finished with it though . . . . .
hno:
arty:
If anyone is interested in learning why the lines move and who is moving them, I recommend you read this book:
The Smart Money: How the World's Best Sports Bettors Beat the Bookies Out of Millions by Michael Konik
This is a very good read and very informative. You will not be able to set it down until you are finished with it though . . . . .
I agree the book did keep you reading...but informative?...the main insight the book gave is that complicted and coveted software programs are the only way to beat the bookies.
