19-10 YTD Sat Plays

omahamoneymaker · Sep 29, 2004

Get a good start to the weekend by getting Marshall home with a winner.
Bet a couple of lines as they opened at Olympic and Pinnacle Sunday night. Apologize for not posting them until now as a bit of value has been lost. I will try to be a bit more like OldMANTed posting early if I think the value will sway in the other direction. I did it last week but and the lines went the way I thought but unfortunately the games didn't :mad:

Here are a couple I am already down on.

LSU +4
MISSOURI -6

I realize you can't get these now but I would take LSU at +3 now and Missouri at anything less than 7. I think that LSU wins straight up and I think Mizzu wins by a couple of TD's. With Georgia's inability to score and a very tough LSU Defense points will be at a premium and getting 3 points is huge.

Here are my leans also:

TEXAS A&M
SYRACUSE
OREGON
G TECH
TULSA
NCAROLINA
BYU
STANFORD
AIR FORCE
UCONN
FRESNO STATE
OVER NU/KU
OVER NDAME/PURDUE
WEST VIRGINIA

I won't play any of these quite yet as the lines are going in my favor in several of them and I also need to do a bit more research on some of them
Gtech, Stanford, AForce, and Fresno State lines are likely to move against us so if you have feelings about those you may want to grab them now. :think:

jwblue · Sep 30, 2004

How do you feel about buying points? I know just about every one on the planet is against it, but I seem to have done ok with it with hoops.

IS

omahamoneymaker · Sep 30, 2004

InSpades,

I rarely buy points and only in football. And only on or off the -3 if betting on the favorite. If betting on the underdog, only to get from +2.5 to +3 on very rare occasions. In the pro's, if I can't get the -3, I will try to tease from -3.5 to +3 with ties win and find a couple of others to go with it. I just can't see putting -125 or -130 down. I prefer if at all possible to do alot of line shopping and alot of line watching throughout the week. For example, in both of the games I played, I did not want the number to get to a key number against me and a move with me wouldn't have been as beneficial. The risk of the Mizzu line moving to -5.5 or -5 after I bet it at -6 was better to take than the risk of it moving to -6.5 or -7. I fully expected the line to go up and it did. Same thing as in the LSU line. To get +4.5 would have been nice but I never expected this line to go up from +4. I was more worried about it going to +3.5 or even worse +3 before I could get down on it. So, I am sitting at +4 with -110 vig. If I could have been a bit faster I could have got it at -106 possibly at Pinny. Olympic lines were up a bit before and I grabbed it at +4.

So, in a nutshell, I hardly ever buy points but rather choose to concentrate on expected line movements.

If I have to in the pro's and sometimes college I will tease to get the necessary line from -3.5 or -3 to +3 or +4 with ties win. I think you will be much better off in the long run.

If you really have the time it is best to do your handicapping from Sunday morning until the lines come out Sunday evening and then you are ready to pounce on the lines when they come out. Many times I will place my money on a lean I have if I know the line will go against me. If I want to get off later in the week I can most often get off with little or no loss in vig and a potential at a middle. I did that in the Michigan/NDame game this year. I believe I had Michigan at -12 -107. As the week went on I became uneasy with my play so I got off by taking NDame at +13 -105. I lost a bit of vig but fortunately not the Michigan bet and had a slight chance at a middle.

Anyway, this is my advice, take it for what it's worth. :biglaugh:

RightSide · Sep 30, 2004

GL with the plays...I feel very alone being on Georgia this weekend. Now that I see you on LSU as well makes me a little nervous. I see NOONE on Georgia, but you gotta go with what you believe....out of your leans I like A&M and WV.

William4400 · Sep 30, 2004

Thanks Omaha,

Keep up the good work, and have a great weekend.

Bill

omahamoneymaker · Oct 2, 2004

Adding:

LOUSVILLE -30
BOISE STATE -37.5
SYRACUSE -6
STANFORD -13

I have the potential for a huge card today. Didn't like last weekends card but this weekend is different as I could put my whole bankroll on the line if I wanted.
I will be adding at least 3 or 4 more. It's gonna be a chalk weekend but I have a couple of dogs I am waiting on getting another point or so.

omahamoneymaker · Oct 2, 2004

Adding:

TEXAS -37

omahamoneymaker · Oct 2, 2004

Adding:

NORTH CAROLINA +28.5

omahamoneymaker · Oct 2, 2004

I liked Oregon and I now see that they may have some suspensions and also that Lewis is on them heavy. Count me in.

Adding:

OREGON -2.5

oldmanTED · Oct 2, 2004

Omaha:

With you on Stanford today and had a lean on LSU but lost some value and considering Oregon as a late addition. Best of luck with your plays today.

omahamoneymaker · Oct 2, 2004

Thanks OMT. I looked over your selections and like what you have going. I have the over NDame/Purdue in some teasers at 44 so I don't think I will pull the trigger on the Over game total at 51. Several of my bets today are teams that will have revenge on their mind. I expect a solid effort out of some of the heavy favorites also. Lousville hasn't played at home since the season opener and I look for them to do major damage in this one.

Baylor is horrible and Texas is looking for a tuneup. Vince Young threw 2 INT's in last game so I look for him to rebound with a huge game. Texas rolls bigtime. Baylor just glad to win a game last week.

Mizzu is revenge minded.
Boise State looking to be impressive against weak competition.
I look for Stanford to rebound bigtime, Washington in the tank and lost a couple of receivers that are their playmakers.
LSU, getting 4 points is just too many in a defensive game.
Syracuse looking for a win in front of the home crowd.
Florida State plays an uninspired game and NCarolina offense keeps it close.

jwblue · Oct 2, 2004

Boy, was I sweating the end of the UNC/Fla State game. Not sure if you saw it, but with about 3 minutes to go UNC had a punt blocked and recovered at their own 20 down by 22.

:nuts:

omahamoneymaker · Oct 2, 2004

My friends and I were watching it to the end. We were all sure I was going to get screwed at the end. Boy was that close. NCarolina was the right side but I had a feeling it was going to lose anyway. :drink:

jwblue · Oct 2, 2004

We dodged a bullet in the Syracuse game too. That was one I had in the loss column.

IS

omahamoneymaker · Oct 2, 2004

5-2 so far. Played Okie State but forgot to post it. Anyway, it is a big weekend so far and I am expecting to continue it with the late games. :drink:

jwblue · Oct 2, 2004

Anything tonight?

IS

NYReb · Oct 2, 2004

Damn good day:aktion033

jwblue · Oct 2, 2004

OMM:

How do you feel about halftime wagers? For point spreads over 30, it seems most of the time, the favorite will cover the halftime line, but not the game. Example today, Texas and Boise St.cover at halftime, Texas does not cover game, Boise unknown at this time.

IS

omahamoneymaker · Oct 2, 2004

Switching from football to women. Me and the boys are going out to celebrate and to pick up some ladies. Be back tomorrow with some pro picks. :biglaugh:

omahamoneymaker · Oct 3, 2004

Not as productive as I would have liked. Went 5-4 on posted picks bringing YTD to 24-14. On a 63% winning clip right now. Finished last year at 60% so I am a bit ahead of the pace though I really expect to finish over 60% this year. Hang on for the ride. :aktion033