Zapster
We are EVERYWHERE !!
- Joined
- Jan 21, 2000
- Messages
- 6,459
- Reaction score
- 13
Back in the days when people paid lots of attention to my plays, I used to get bugged a lot about not making new daily threads. I preferred to keep things in one big year-long thingy. So now.....while I am on this hot streak.....that I hope lasts the rest of the season.....I will do both. I want to keep the monthly thread going for documentation purposes and I have started doing dailys to get my picks out to a wider readership.
If I have learned anything from rising and falling (and watching others rise and fall) in this forum, it's that...:
1) When things go well everybody is your best friend (except that moron that accused Tater and I of being in cahoots with the books last year)
2) When someone gets hot....me or anybody else.....they are unstoppable.....for awhile.
3) Inevitably, the nature of the NBA season takes a turn and the game is played differently. When that happens, there is a "changing of the guard" and things that didn't work now do....and things that used to work now don't.
If I made one mistake in the past....and it is a hard mistake to not make.....it is not recognizing when it's time to back off and go low-key for awhile. Success in handicapping is very intoxicationg.....and also very addictive. It is hard to accept that the run is over and it is time to do things differently.
The first three months of this season were an exercise in humiliation the likes of which I hope to not experience again.
Ok....all of that being said.......my picks are currenty hitting close to 60%.....and in fact had Memphis covered they would be at exactly 60% for March.
I don't want to jinx myself by getting all uppity about it, but I do want to make sure people see these.....while they are performing as well as they have been. So I am doing what I said I would never do.......I am doing daily threads and putting my record in the title.
I like to have fun doing this.......and I throw in a lot of stuff in my posts besides my picks. My favorite (of course) was the duck story......although I guess some folks got upset because they were all over the T-Wolves the night of the conclusion. Oh well.....I never claimed to have impeccable timing. In my monthly threads there is lots of that kind of stuff.
Anyway......I ask nothing for these picks.....never have.....and never will. There is a lot of joy in it for me if I can help people make winning plays. I am very fortunate that (at least for now) my system seems to be hitting on all gears.....and yes.....it is very much a system, so those of you who are anti-system may not want to hit these.
I shouldn't have to point this out......but please remember that while 58% winners will make good $$ in the long run, that still means that 42% of the plays lose. I know tomorrow is Sunday and that is the day most locals close the week. These plays are not designed to be a bailout. Had anyone been following them this entire month and played the units as posted, they would be +23.2 Units as of now.....but there have been 23 losing plays to go with the 32 winners and it would suck to blow the wad on any one play.
Ok.....I have made you sit through enough my my dribble. Time to post Sunday's plays.............:
Toronto -1.5 (1 Unit)
Knicks +2 (1 Unit)
Indy +7.5 (7 Units)
I realize that having a 7 Unit play is contrary to what I said about not having any one game be too important.....but I am just laying out what the numbers are saying here. According to my numbers, Indy should be a 3 point favorite and instead they are a 7.5 point dog. It is rare to see this big of a disparity between my number and the line. Most of the plays are 3 units or less.
Lastly.....there are still 4 games without lines, so there are likely to be more plays in the morning.
Thanks for taking the time to read this.......and please realize that I care passionately about winning and take seriously the responsibility of giving this kind of advice.
If I have learned anything from rising and falling (and watching others rise and fall) in this forum, it's that...:
1) When things go well everybody is your best friend (except that moron that accused Tater and I of being in cahoots with the books last year)
2) When someone gets hot....me or anybody else.....they are unstoppable.....for awhile.
3) Inevitably, the nature of the NBA season takes a turn and the game is played differently. When that happens, there is a "changing of the guard" and things that didn't work now do....and things that used to work now don't.
If I made one mistake in the past....and it is a hard mistake to not make.....it is not recognizing when it's time to back off and go low-key for awhile. Success in handicapping is very intoxicationg.....and also very addictive. It is hard to accept that the run is over and it is time to do things differently.
The first three months of this season were an exercise in humiliation the likes of which I hope to not experience again.
Ok....all of that being said.......my picks are currenty hitting close to 60%.....and in fact had Memphis covered they would be at exactly 60% for March.
I don't want to jinx myself by getting all uppity about it, but I do want to make sure people see these.....while they are performing as well as they have been. So I am doing what I said I would never do.......I am doing daily threads and putting my record in the title.
I like to have fun doing this.......and I throw in a lot of stuff in my posts besides my picks. My favorite (of course) was the duck story......although I guess some folks got upset because they were all over the T-Wolves the night of the conclusion. Oh well.....I never claimed to have impeccable timing. In my monthly threads there is lots of that kind of stuff.
Anyway......I ask nothing for these picks.....never have.....and never will. There is a lot of joy in it for me if I can help people make winning plays. I am very fortunate that (at least for now) my system seems to be hitting on all gears.....and yes.....it is very much a system, so those of you who are anti-system may not want to hit these.
I shouldn't have to point this out......but please remember that while 58% winners will make good $$ in the long run, that still means that 42% of the plays lose. I know tomorrow is Sunday and that is the day most locals close the week. These plays are not designed to be a bailout. Had anyone been following them this entire month and played the units as posted, they would be +23.2 Units as of now.....but there have been 23 losing plays to go with the 32 winners and it would suck to blow the wad on any one play.
Ok.....I have made you sit through enough my my dribble. Time to post Sunday's plays.............:
Toronto -1.5 (1 Unit)
Knicks +2 (1 Unit)
Indy +7.5 (7 Units)
I realize that having a 7 Unit play is contrary to what I said about not having any one game be too important.....but I am just laying out what the numbers are saying here. According to my numbers, Indy should be a 3 point favorite and instead they are a 7.5 point dog. It is rare to see this big of a disparity between my number and the line. Most of the plays are 3 units or less.
Lastly.....there are still 4 games without lines, so there are likely to be more plays in the morning.
Thanks for taking the time to read this.......and please realize that I care passionately about winning and take seriously the responsibility of giving this kind of advice.
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The exception to that is when the Lakers & Clippers play in which case I give a lower amount of home edge since the visitor is eating home cooking.
~rg
