also for me small lean on the under. expect slow start as team feel each other out and get the nerves under control. no one wants to make a huge mistake early that could be costly. except some trick plays out of zona that could make or break them. but if i get 7 points i will take it. barring any late turnovers that go for scores should get the cover and could win straightup.
good points. ill have my LONG write-up/preview up soon (i just need to finish the darn thing lol) and you may see a few more things you like in it. whisenhunt knows lebeau's defense and vice versa. im still working on that angle to see if it helps/hurts the under and keep going from there on to my other angles/matchups.
Steelers moneyline (-235 at bodog, -240 at sportsbook, -250 at thegreek, -255 at bookmaker) might be my next and last play for the Super Bowl.
My original idea was to take the under, Pitt moneyline, and Arizona +7. I may still do that but I won't post all 3 as I won't be betting them all equally. I'll post the two that I bet the heaviest and put a little on the 3rd one.
My original idea was to take the under, Pitt moneyline, and Arizona +7. I may still do that but I won't post all 3 as I won't be betting them all equally. I'll post the two that I bet the heaviest and put a little on the 3rd one.
Before I forget it, an interesting fact I heard on the radio today:
80% of the games in the NFL this year were decided by 7 points or less.
That right there is the main reason I'm not even considering the Steelers -7. I like them to win, but the line is set perfectly right now and I see 0 value in it since I like the Steelers to win this one.
80% of the games in the NFL this year were decided by 7 points or less.
That right there is the main reason I'm not even considering the Steelers -7. I like them to win, but the line is set perfectly right now and I see 0 value in it since I like the Steelers to win this one.
:howdy:
Hello Ramonskee...
I think the above stat is pretty much useless myself and especially so in this day and age of parity, hell's fire I could easily point out that 9 of Pittsburgh's 14 wins were by 7 points or more for a winning rate of 64.29% and that 6 of Arizona's 7 losses were by 7 or more points for a winning rate of 85.71%...
...does that mean that Pittsburgh will easily cover the 7 point spot since they have won by 7 or more points in 64.29% of their wins or for that matter does that mean that Arizona will get blown out of this game based on the fact that when they lose....they lose big....as evidenced by Arizona losing six of their seven seasonal losses by 7 or more points?
Take care and be well my friend
Dirtydog
:wink:
DD1,
you missed my point completely. if you like arizona, you definitely SHOULD take the points on top of the moneyline. but if you had to choose one, take the points. BUT, if you line pitt, take them moneyline. this stat is legit and im not messing with it.
what it's telling you is this; 80% of NFL games this season have been decided by 7 points or less. so, if ALL THINGS HOLD CONSTANT (which they shouldn't be expected to but most cappers are huge on #s) if you take the steelers -7, there's an 80% chance you'll lose or PUSH at best. however, if you take the cardinals +7, there's an 80% chance you'll push at worst or WIN.
i, for one, like pittsburgh to win this game so the steelers MONEYLINE is the only thing im considering.
Heard it on the radio the other day from Stats Inc.'s John Dewan.
EDIT: I just went back and put together all the numbers and it sounds like either his numbers were the opposite of what he said or he meant to say something else. I heard him clearly and was shocked myself when he said what he said. Here are the real numbers...
115 out of 512 regular season NFL games were decided by 7 points or less which equates to 22%. So actually, almost 80% of NFL games were decided by MORE than 7 points.
Sorry about that one guys. I'll try to e-mail him and see what he meant to say.
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I won't completely throw John under the bus though, here is a GREAT article that may help some of you decide where to invest your money come Super Bowl Sunday.
For those who don't want to read it, here's what he does; he compares 12 different stats and gives 1 point to each team that has the edge. He's gone back and done this for every Super Bowl that has been played. When one team has had the edge in at least 8 of the 12 stats (that has happened 25 times), that team has won 21 out of 25 times! Even better, when one team has had 11 or all 12 of the stats (which has happened 5 times), that team has won the Super Bowl EVERY TIME! As he notes, the sample sizes are small, but also very impressive.
This year, the Steelers have the edge in 11 of his 12 categories...
For those who don't want to read it, here's what he does; he compares 12 different stats and gives 1 point to each team that has the edge. He's gone back and done this for every Super Bowl that has been played. When one team has had the edge in at least 8 of the 12 stats (that has happened 25 times), that team has won 21 out of 25 times! Even better, when one team has had 11 or all 12 of the stats (which has happened 5 times), that team has won the Super Bowl EVERY TIME! As he notes, the sample sizes are small, but also very impressive.
This year, the Steelers have the edge in 11 of his 12 categories...
If the Steelers have proven anything so far, it's that they can adjust. No matter what kind of team they're matched up against, offensive powerhouses or defensive juggernauts, they'll adjust to them and beat them. Going into the Super Bowl, it's pretty safe to say that the Steelers are the better team. However, can they cover the 7 point spread? I don't know.
But what I am comfortable with is that they can slow down (not shut down) the Cardinals passing game. With Troy Polamalu patrolling the "outfield" and that dominating defensive line trying to put Kurt Warner on his ass every time, the Cardinals' offensive gameplan will have to change.
<DIR><DIR>With less time to try the deep ball they'll have to throw short. This will lower the chances of the quick touchdowns being scored.
With the Steelers blitzing often, they'll have to run the ball a bit to keep Pittsburgh honest.
</DIR></DIR>I see the Steelers changing up their offensive gameplan a bit also in order to keep the Cardinals fantastic offense off the field, the Steelers will have to run the ball more and use up more of the clock.
With these adjustments comes less scoring and more time being consumed on longer drives. I also put together a list of the Cardinals' last 3 (playoff) games and the Steelers' last 2 (playoff) games. I matched them up against their opponents' regular season ranks in each category. Here is how it broke down for the Cardinals first...
- Wild Card Round vs. Atlanta Falcons
<DIR><DIR>Gave up 190 passing yards vs. the 14th ranked passing offense
Gave up 60 rushing yards vs. the 2nd ranked rushing offense
Put up 271 passing yards vs. the 21st ranked pass defense
Put up 86 rushing yards vs. the 25th rush defense
</DIR></DIR>- Divisional Round @ Carolina Panthers
<DIR><DIR>Gave up 194 passing yards vs. the 19th ranked passing offense
Gave up 75 rushing yards vs. the 3rd ranked rushing offense
Put up 215 passing yards vs. the 16th ranked pass defense
Put up 145 rushing yards vs. the 20th ranked rush defense
</DIR></DIR>- NFC Championship Game vs. Philadelphia Eagles
<DIR><DIR>Gave up 357 passing yards vs. the 6th ranked passing offense
Gave up 97 rushing yards vs. the 22nd rushing offense
Put up 267 passing yards vs. the 3rd ranked pass defense
Put up 102 rushing yards vs. the 4th ranked rush defense
</DIR></DIR>- On average, the Cardinals have...
<DIR><DIR>Given up 247 passing yards vs. 13th ranked passing offense
Given up 77 rushing yards vs. the 13th ranked rushing offense
Put up 251 passing yards vs. the 13th ranked pass defense
Put up 111 rushing yards vs. the 16th ranked rush defense
</DIR></DIR>Now the Steelers playoff games breakdowns...
- Divisional Round vs. San Diego Chargers
<DIR><DIR>Gave up 275 passing yards vs. the 7th ranked passing offense
Gave up 15 rushing yards vs. the 20th ranked rushing offense
Put up 177 passing yards vs. the 31st ranked pass defense
Put up 165 rushing yards vs. the 11th rush defense
</DIR></DIR>- AFC Championship Game vs. Baltimore Ravens
<DIR><DIR>Gave up 125 passing yards vs. the 28th ranked passing offense
Gave up 73 rushing yards vs. the 4th ranked rushing offense
Put up 223 passing yards vs. the 2nd ranked pass defense
Put up 52 rushing yards vs. the 3rd ranked rush defense
</DIR></DIR>- On average the Steelers
But what I am comfortable with is that they can slow down (not shut down) the Cardinals passing game. With Troy Polamalu patrolling the "outfield" and that dominating defensive line trying to put Kurt Warner on his ass every time, the Cardinals' offensive gameplan will have to change.
<DIR><DIR>With less time to try the deep ball they'll have to throw short. This will lower the chances of the quick touchdowns being scored.
With the Steelers blitzing often, they'll have to run the ball a bit to keep Pittsburgh honest.
</DIR></DIR>I see the Steelers changing up their offensive gameplan a bit also in order to keep the Cardinals fantastic offense off the field, the Steelers will have to run the ball more and use up more of the clock.
With these adjustments comes less scoring and more time being consumed on longer drives. I also put together a list of the Cardinals' last 3 (playoff) games and the Steelers' last 2 (playoff) games. I matched them up against their opponents' regular season ranks in each category. Here is how it broke down for the Cardinals first...
- Wild Card Round vs. Atlanta Falcons
<DIR><DIR>Gave up 190 passing yards vs. the 14th ranked passing offense
Gave up 60 rushing yards vs. the 2nd ranked rushing offense
Put up 271 passing yards vs. the 21st ranked pass defense
Put up 86 rushing yards vs. the 25th rush defense
</DIR></DIR>- Divisional Round @ Carolina Panthers
<DIR><DIR>Gave up 194 passing yards vs. the 19th ranked passing offense
Gave up 75 rushing yards vs. the 3rd ranked rushing offense
Put up 215 passing yards vs. the 16th ranked pass defense
Put up 145 rushing yards vs. the 20th ranked rush defense
</DIR></DIR>- NFC Championship Game vs. Philadelphia Eagles
<DIR><DIR>Gave up 357 passing yards vs. the 6th ranked passing offense
Gave up 97 rushing yards vs. the 22nd rushing offense
Put up 267 passing yards vs. the 3rd ranked pass defense
Put up 102 rushing yards vs. the 4th ranked rush defense
</DIR></DIR>- On average, the Cardinals have...
<DIR><DIR>Given up 247 passing yards vs. 13th ranked passing offense
Given up 77 rushing yards vs. the 13th ranked rushing offense
Put up 251 passing yards vs. the 13th ranked pass defense
Put up 111 rushing yards vs. the 16th ranked rush defense
</DIR></DIR>Now the Steelers playoff games breakdowns...
- Divisional Round vs. San Diego Chargers
<DIR><DIR>Gave up 275 passing yards vs. the 7th ranked passing offense
Gave up 15 rushing yards vs. the 20th ranked rushing offense
Put up 177 passing yards vs. the 31st ranked pass defense
Put up 165 rushing yards vs. the 11th rush defense
</DIR></DIR>- AFC Championship Game vs. Baltimore Ravens
<DIR><DIR>Gave up 125 passing yards vs. the 28th ranked passing offense
Gave up 73 rushing yards vs. the 4th ranked rushing offense
Put up 223 passing yards vs. the 2nd ranked pass defense
Put up 52 rushing yards vs. the 3rd ranked rush defense
</DIR></DIR>- On average the Steelers
- Gave up 200 passing yards vs. the 18th ranked passing offense
Gave up 44 rushing yards vs. the 12th ranked rushing offense
Put up 200 passing yards vs. the 17th ranked pass defense
Put up 109 rushing yards vs. the 7th ranked rush defense
- Gave up 200 passing yards vs. the 18th ranked passing offense
Steelers/Cardinals u46.5
Steelers moneyline (-225 @ Bodog)
Adding the Steelers moneyline. I have had a twist of faith on the Cardinals and may even take the Steelers -7! Going all out for this Super Bowl. Chances are I will not have 3 "major" plays on the Super Bowl but may add some props that I really like.
Good luck everyone!
Steelers moneyline (-225 @ Bodog)
Adding the Steelers moneyline. I have had a twist of faith on the Cardinals and may even take the Steelers -7! Going all out for this Super Bowl. Chances are I will not have 3 "major" plays on the Super Bowl but may add some props that I really like.
Good luck everyone!
I love the +170 price tag and I would consider it mainly because both Ben and Kurt have could get dinged up for a play/series or two and we'd see their backups, Leftwich and/or Leinart, step in for a bit.
But then again... both of these two guys are gladiators and won't let their team down in the biggest game of the year by sitting down at all because of a not so serious injury.
This is a tough one but I'd take the under.
Good luck to you sir.
