NFL playoffs 2022!

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pigskinpete

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Dec 6, 2018
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145
4-2 +83 for consecutive weeks to finish the regular season with some positive vibes!….got a late start posting on this site and the record in those weeks is not good….. 24-28 -$230

I am going to try to play a side and total in every playoff game…we will see how long that lasts?

played Cincy - Vegas under 48’ earlier tonight. 44/40

I think that there are 7 elite quarterback and skill people groups this year, obviously Rodgers and GB, Mahomes and KC, Herbert and the Chargers, Burrow and the Bengals, Dak and the Cowboys, Brady with Tampa and Josh Allen with Buffalo…all of the teams in the NFC west are close, but I can’t call Stafford elite based on his recent play, Wilson has Metcalf and Lockett, but not much else, Jimmy G not elite in my opinion and Murray without Hopkins isn’t quite there yet…anyhow, of all the elite teams only the Bengals are in the bottom half of sacks allowed, actually 30th with 55 sacks allowed…the other 6 are all in the top 12…Burrow has been sacked 3 + 12x…that’s one reason I am leaning to the under here.

I think Vegas is a different team on offense lately as well, more rush attempts and ball control with Renfrow, compared to earlier in the year when Ruggs was there and Waller was 100%…I think they need to eat clock and keep Burrow and the boys off the field…Vegas has had trouble in the red zone scoring TD’s all year as well…Vegas still takes deep shots, but have not hit any lately, if they do the under is doomed.

I like the way this Vegas run D has been playing of late, taking pride in stopping the run the last several weeks, hopefully that continues and the Bengals have to convert on 3rd and long with Crosby and a pretty good Vegas pass rush making Burrow uncomfortable.

I also HOPE that resting the Bengal skill people last week (obviously the right thing to do) slows their momentum some…yes I know Burrow has thrown for close to 1,000 yards and has 8 touchdowns his last two starts!…the last time these teams played the Bengals were off a bye week and Burrow had only one touchdown pass after throwing for 20 in their first 9 games…in fact he only threw for 6 Td’s in the next 5 games after the bye week, before heating back up (big time) the last two games.

I think the Bengal defense with actually benefit more from the rest than the offense .

lastly the Bengals scored 32 at Vegas, but kicked 4 field goals, 3 of which were from 50+ yards, I doubt that happens in cold Cincinnati.

good luck and more to come!
 

pigskinpete

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Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Messages
145
Adding

Cincy -6 33/30

probably my least liked play today…it’s a well documented fact that this is a tough situation for Vegas playing on the road, across country, after playing an emotional Sunday night game…but it’s the playoffs, they should find the energy, at least as long as they are competitive ….the bigger factor for me is turnovers, some how Vegas is -10 their last 5 games, but still 4-1 su?!…Cincy has no giveaways their last 4 games.

You have to be impressed with Vegas coming back from the dead and winning 4 in a row to get in, but they definitely caught some breaks.
A gift PI call against the Chargers + a muffed punt + Staley going for 4th down inside his own 25!

They got Drew Lock at home vs. Denver instead of Teddy and caught a depleted Browns team on their Covid game.

The Bengals had struggled at home this year until finishing very strong, blowing out Baltimore (with a third string Qb and badly depleted secondary) and more impressively beating KC after being behind by 14 points 3x in that game.

I just think if there is one-sided scoring in this game it will be the fresher more explosive Bengals having the fun.
 

pigskinpete

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Joined
Dec 6, 2018
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145
Bills-Patriots, my first thought was that you have to take Allen over Jones, especially with Jones recent play, but Josh Allen has had some head scratchers as well this year…a couple of weeks ago 11-26-120-0-3 at home vs. the Falcons…2 picks when the colts secondary was in disarray …0-2 ratio vs. the Jags!…I know he’s great at times, but…….

Bellichick knows how to beat this Bills team…this reminds me of the movie The Longest Yard (the REAL Longest Yard with Bert Reynolds!) and that scene where he throws the ball into the nether regions of one of the guards, and then goes in the huddle and says if it worked once it should work again!

I am not saying that New England will only throw it 3 times, but they will make Buffalo stop the run, guarenteed….they have played twice, NE has 71 rush attempts for 371 yards 5+ ypc…Buff 53-213 about 4 yds per carry…if Matt Jones can just make some plays and take care of the ball, they should be a live dog.

NE +4’ 55/50

good luck
 

pigskinpete

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Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Messages
145
Thanks fade, in a recliner sipping on a Conways Irish Ale from Great Lakes Brewery…a true gem of a seasonal Ale!
 

pigskinpete

Member
Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Messages
145
Caught the over in the Buffalo game, so 3-1 start…of course NE + was my top choice and the only loser…feeling fortunate to survive the end of the Bengals game…on to tomorrow.
 

pigskinpete

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Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Messages
145
3-1 on Saturday +55

In the first half of this season you wouldn’t have even considered the Eagles in this game…Hurts was throwing too much and they weren’t being physical on offense, therefore the suspect (bad) Eagle defense was being exposed…BUT, something changed around week 7or 8, Philly started pounding the ball (they really have not had a bad running game in the last 11 weeks)…200 + 5x in the last 10 games, also a 185 and 170 in that stretch…running for 242 on the Saints, when they had the top run D at the time convinced me!…at the same time the once seemingly invincible Tampa run D wasn’t the same (Jets 26-150, Buffalo ran for 173 with JA getting 109, Atl. 23-121)…Philly really did shore up their run D as well, but their secondary is still very vulnerable (elite or very good quarterbacks had a 15-3 ratio against them)…so Brady will get his, even without Godwin or Brown ….you see where I’m going here…Philly runs it better, stops it better and turns it over less, catching more than 7…have to take a flyer on the Eagles…lastly Tampa was 7- 2 ATS as a DD favorite, but when it was between 7 - 9 they were 0-3 ATS…probably meaningless, but it made me feel better!

Philly +7’….. 55/50

played under 47 Tampa- Philly as well…. 33/30

figure Philly eats clock even if they don’t score TD’s and Tampa might not be quite as explosive w/o Brown, Godwin, Fournette etc…thinking the windy conditions may be a factor as well.

good luck!
 

pigskinpete

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Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Messages
145
The next game comes down to trust IMO, who do you trust more Dak or Jimmy?….I so want to say Jimmy, but I just can’t…I think Dallas and Dak have found their mojo again just in time…I kept waiting for this line to drop under 3 and then pounce on SF (ass backwards reasoning)…I also don’t trust the SF secondary very much…If Jimmy G throws it to the right team I think the Niners have the balance to get it done…counting on the Cowboys getting a couple of picks here and win and cover.

Dallas -3 33/30

also played the over 51 33/30

like the total better, but 90% of public gives me pause…played both small, obviously.
 

pigskinpete

Member
Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Messages
145
Okay, need a good night.

First, Pittsburgh didn’t care or show up in the first game in KC…they knew even if they lost they still had a chance in the division…Cincy took care of that, but they got a gift from Indy and took care of their own business.

Second, Big Ben is not dead, despite reports to the contrary.

Third Mahomes is a great QB and I continue to say that that despite TJ Watt this is a bad Pittsburgh defense.

it all adds up to cold beer and points!

KC-Pitt over 46’…. 55/50

Pittsburgh +13 44/40

good luck!
 

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