Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (14)

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Sigh, I hate it when every other play wins except for POW. That means I unluckily chose the wrong gm. CIN definitely had their chances to keep the gm close, none better than the Ja’Marr Chase drop that turned a surefire TD into an INT. Later Burrow sprained a finger on his throwing hand & that was all she wrote. Despite all that, CIN was only down 2 pts in the 4th, but Mixon’s fumble return TD & Burrow’s 2nd pick put the gm away. Rest of slate swept, w/NYG & MIA “D”s making the Under a snoozer, WAS took care of business against the reeling Raiders, the NE train kept rolling on Monday & Teaser hit in spades.

Regular Season POW 7-6, Teasers 6-7, GOY 1-1, Overall 30-36 (37-37 undocumented)

TEN -8 ½
has been hit hard by injuries to derail their once promising season, losing 3 straight & the top spot in the AFC. TEN struggled to balance the “O” & somehow find traction w/out Derrick Henry. I believe they may have found an answer in practice squad star Dontrell Hilliard. He kept TEN close @ NE early by rushing for 131 yds & a score, which was a 68 yarder. D’onta Foreman also added 109 yds on the ground against a now surging NE “D”. Vrabel is a very good coach. He should win COY if TEN makes POs. Not only has he had to replace Henry, but he’s also been w/out star WRs Brown & Julio for most of the yr. His “D” has been steady too, despite not having any star players (#16 total “D” & #6 against the run). Another sign of being a good coach is performance after the bye. Vrabel is now 3-0 SU & ATS off the bye, winning by an avg of 20 ppg, including 2 gms as a dog. One of those was against JAX in ’19. Their 1st matchup this yr was back in Wk 5 @ JAX w/TEN winning 37-19. Score was a little closer than that w/a fumble TD greasing the skids for JAX to start the gm. JAX’s “D” very much has the capability to hold Tannehill & co in check here, but it’s JAX’s “O” that should help cover the spread. Lawrence began looking comfortable mid-season but has regressed the last 4 gms. Urban really has to lean on James Robinson, which he’s promising to do here, but as mentioned earlier, TEN’s run “D” is 1 of the best & w/2 wks to gameplan, Vrabel has shown he can attack his opponent’s weakness like his old boss Belicheat. On the injury front, JAX will be down their starting C Linder & TEN will be welcoming back Julio Jones. W/out all of these advantages, TEN already owned this series @ hm going 4-1-1 ATS. Lots of public action on TEN, but I think they got it rt this wk.

JAX 13
TEN 37
6 Units


GL to all & comments are most welcome.
 

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Honorable Mentions:

1 Unit WAS +4 ½:
DAL off the bye & needing this 1 bad, but I’ve been watching WAS the last 4 wks & I’m so impressed w/the coaching & QB play. Plus WAS is getting healthier on “O” albeit not on the oline. But I’ve written previously about how the coaches give every lineman starting practice time every wk, which is why they can plug & play so efficiently. Pollard hurt his foot too, which DAL needs to help pace Dak’s passing attack. This should be close regardless, so getting more than a FG @ hm is the way to go.

1 Unit ATL +3 (bought ½ @ -120): ATL is a perfect 0-7 @ hm, so they somehow play way better on the rd. CAR is off the bye, but w/Scam Newton @ QB, that is worthless. He is not a smart player & is way beyond his prime. ATL will focus on securing the line of scrimmage & make CAR beat them thru the air. OC Joe Brady was fired during the bye wk so we’ll see what changes on “O” CAR will make. Matt Ryan typically does well vs CAR too, so w/Patterson pacing the “O” both on the ground & thru the air, ATL will score enough to win this SU.

2 Unit Wormy Teaser

ATL +15 ½
WAS +17 ½
DET/DEN Under 55
GB +1 ½
 

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I like Tenn. I’d suggest Denver but the line is ridiculous now. Should still wipe their ass with Detroit. Good luck buddy.
 

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I like Tenn. I’d suggest Denver but the line is ridiculous now. Should still wipe their ass with Detroit. Good luck buddy.
Don't think DET will ride any momentum? I agree tho, DET has a lot of injuries & have to be emotionally drained. However, Bridgewater doesn't play well @ hm, so it should be low scoring, which is why I have the Under on my Teaser.

Phins UP!
 

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W/Pix......here's to a solid and successful weekend buddy.....
BOL with all your action......indy
 

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Wormy, BOL on your picks today as I like your Tenn pick as Urban has ruined that locker room but I like the Cowboys today not buying into the Football team yet
 

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Thanks for posting wormy!! Always look forward to seeing your write-ups. GL!!
 

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W/Pix......here's to a solid and successful weekend buddy.....
BOL with all your action......indy
Thanks Indy! Who you going w/this wk? I always like to see your plays as well my friend.
Wormy, BOL on your picks today as I like your Tenn pick as Urban has ruined that locker room but I like the Cowboys today not buying into the Football team yet
WAS is a tuff team to back. Heineke seems to do just enough to win so it's scary if they were to ever get down by a lot. But I think that's by design to limit TOs. JAX still plays w/pride, but they're all over the place. Crazy to hear rumors of this being Urban's last yr already!
Thanks for posting wormy!! Always look forward to seeing your write-ups. GL!!
Thanks for stopping by & dropping some kind words, Can. BOL to you as well.
 

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W/Pix.....Clev. .....Dal (have them at -4.5).....SF......and T.Bay.....
also have a couple of Un.'s..KC, Tenn and Atl.....
here's to a successful day my friend......indy
 

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W/Pix.....Clev. .....Dal (have them at -4.5).....SF......and T.Bay.....
also have a couple of Un.'s..KC, Tenn and Atl.....
here's to a successful day my friend......indy
Looking great so far Indy! You should be posting plays!
 

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Adding MNF:

2 Units ARI -2 ½:
I don’t think Kingsbury or Vance Joseph are good coaches, but ARI should win this one. LA has dominated this series but Stafford has not been good on the rd against winning teams. That was a trend I followed when he was @ DET, & so far it hasn’t changed in LA. Stafford is 0-1 SU & ATS on the rd vs a team w/a winning record this yr (@ GB). His Wk 2 gm @ IND (who was 0-1 @ the time) he struggled & lost ATS as well as Wk 9 @ SF where they scored 10 pts & he threw 2 INTs. That trend should continue here esp w/his starting center, RT and RB all out for this div rivalry.
 

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W/Pix......BOL with your play tonight buddy....
on them with you.....here's to a solid evening......
wish I had gone with your Tenn. Yesterday....
that will teach me....lol.........indy
 
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Love it brother. Best of luck tonight, I love Arizona-2.5 or so also. 2 units on da Cardinals..?
 

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Don't know what the moneyline for Arizona is from my local, so why not put a Benny on Arizona MLine?
 

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W/Pix......BOL with your play tonight buddy....
on them with you.....here's to a solid evening......
wish I had gone with your Tenn. Yesterday....
that will teach me....lol.........indy
No way Indy! I'm sure I lost you quite a few w/my bonehead pix early in the yr. Thanks for the support, as always.
Love it brother. Best of luck tonight, I love Arizona-2.5 or so also. 2 units on da Cardinals..?
Excellent Philly, BOL to the both of us then. Some good news as reportedly Jalen Ramsey will also be out being on the COVID list. This could get away from LA.
Don't know what the moneyline for Arizona is from my local, so why not put a Benny on Arizona MLine?
DaKaty, I almost never play ML favs as you don't get any value & more than half of the time the winner in an NFL gm will also cover the spread. I don't really care to even play ML dogs as the backdoor will hopefully be available if they're down a lot. Esp @ the key 2 1/2 pt spread, ARI w/the # is the way to go. BOL either way you decide to play them!
Zona offense is sick!! Defense isn’t too shabby either.
Their "O" has a lot of talent, but still feel Murray holds them back from being elite. Like Russell, Lamar, Scam, Fields, etc., the dline just has to contain the gaps & keep those running QBs in the pocket to beat them. This doesn't mean they can't complete passes but staying disciplined w/the pass rush will beat those guys 90% of the time. When those key 10-20 yd runs for 1st downs & TDs are taken away, you'll see how often they struggle.
 

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Silly me to think I could trust Kingsbury & Joseph to gameplan against a team missing half their starters. Stafford proved me wrong tho, after 1st series. He was on pt. But ARI "D" should've taken advantage of LA's oline injuries. And Kyler Murray showed exactly what he is & why they will not get to SB & why I rarely back them. This is what should've happened @ LA earlier in yr. Lesson learned.
 

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