Bowl Season 2021-2022

[ofred]

Final YTD: 104-92, +6.38 units. A lot of time for a measly 6 units. Like many, I whiffed on Georgia. Their defense couldn't do what Auburn's defense did. They are still the best D in college football, but don't measure up to couple of Alabama's best defenses of the past 10 years. Bryce Young also gets a lot of credit for keeping plays alive under pressure. Michigan and UC did recoup 8 units, and so only a loss of 4.5 for the week. I always had huge respect for the oddsmakers/ books, but they reeled in the public money two weeks in a row from this game and the OSU- Michigan game. Keeping the line at 6.5/7 when they had a strong feeling that Michigan and Bama would keep the games tight, or maybe win, is why they are so successful.

Bowl Season is like a new one game season. It is not a continuation of the regular season. Much of what a team did earlier is not what they'll repeat in a bowl game. Stats are less meaningful. Players and teams are usually motivated, but preparation and other factors can decide how a team will play.

1.5* Army/ Navy- under 35.5 In the past, I would usually lay a big fat bet on this game. It was fairly predictable. In recent years, the total would be set in the 40s, and it was easy to choose the under. Or one team would be decidedly better than the other. This season, the total and side are pretty close to where they should be. Army might have a much better record, but they had an easier schedule. In their last 9 games, Navy only got beat badly by Notre Dame. Otherwise, they either won or stayed close in a losing effort. Going to ride the under because when you see the service academies play each other, the defenses really know how to defend the triple option well. Just a few long drives that end in a FG, a turnover, or a turn over in downs, and this total stays low. And their drives tend to take a long time. With little passing, and the clock stoppage from incomplete passes, the clock runs more often. There hasn't been a total over 40 since 2013. The totals this year with Air Force and these two was 26 and 28(in regulation). If not for the very low number, I'd be large on this. But just a couple of fluke plays or a punt return, and 35.5 will be crossed before the end of the game.

1* Sam Houston -7.5 Montana State looks overmatched in a game like this. They were a decent, but not exceptional Big Sky team. Offensively, they won't be able to keep up. And Sam Houston is better defensively than in previous seasons where they were more of an offensive juggernaut. Sam Houston's run game is one of the best in the FCS. Went 9-2 in FCS games.

 

[indiana]

Fred......thank you again for your time and thought's this past season buddy.....
much appreciated .....BOL with all your Bowl action....indy

 

[Willief]

Lesssgo Fred, love this time of year and all your insight

 

[ofred]

1* Jackson St./ SC State- under 41.5 Jackson State has a stifling defense and I doubt that SC State's mediocre offense puts much of anything on the scoreboard. SC State's offense is going to keep it safe since their QB is nothing special. SC State RB Kendrell Flowers will be the focus of Jackson St's D. Jackson State has lived off of turnovers and special teams for some scores(2 last week), and I got to believe that SC State is aware of that and runs the ball often and covers punts and KOs well. In Atlanta.

 

[ofred]

1.2* Toledo -10 Small play on Toledo, the team that led the nation in the most penalties. Disappointing season for them. They were a better team than their record, but continued to shoot themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes. Yet they really have a nice run game, a good young dual threat QB, and have one of the best defenses in the MAC. MTSU really struggles to do much of anything offensively. Poor run game. Have tried 4 different QBs, and will likely play their true freshman here, Nick Vattiato. Not sure though. MTSU played a pretty soft schedule that included lucky wins over FAU and Marshall. Also played UConn, Monmouth, FIU, USM...right, 4 easy wins over creampuffs. I'd play this larger, but Toledo has been playing footsies with teams like this all year.

 

[ofred]

1.2* Toledo -10 Small play on Toledo, the team that led the nation in the most penalties. Disappointing season for them. They were a better team than their record, but continued to shoot themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes. Yet they really have a nice run game, a good young dual threat QB, and have one of the best defenses in the MAC. MTSU really struggles to do much of anything offensively. Poor run game. Have tried 4 different QBs, and will likely play their true freshman here, Nick Vattiato. Not sure though. MTSU played a pretty soft schedule that included lucky wins over FAU and Marshall. Also played UConn, Monmouth, FIU, USM...right, 4 easy wins over creampuffs. I'd play this larger, but Toledo has been playing footsies with teams like this all year.

Upping Toledo to 1.5

1* NIU +11 (-112) Can't believe I'm playing two MAC teams already. CCU had padded its stats in a really soft 1st half schedule. Really soft. In their last 6 games, and in their Buffalo game, they didn't look all that good. They played against teams with some terrible QBs, Chase Brice of App. St. being the best of them. Other than App. State, a game they were out-yarded by 200 yards, CCU had some close scores with teams that had little offense. They also lost to Ga. State. I'd be on NIU for more, but they aren't too good at run defense, and in bowl games, that can be a big factor. Also, Rocky Lombardi has had turnover issues in the past. Still...NIU won the MAC, ran the ball well, the pass defense is decent, and found ways to win. Conference champs tend to do well in bowl games. Opponents seemed better prepared for CCU's offense this season, and I think NIU has a chance for the upset.

 

[ofred]

Still some hope for the under in the Army-Navy game after an early 7-7 score.

3* EMU +9 I guess Malik Willis will play in the crappy Lending Tree Bowl Game. Considering he might go in the 1st round of there draft, it doesn't make a lot sense. Maybe someone will tell him that an injury in a pointless bowl game will cost him millions, and he decides otherwise. Frankly, he is a raw prospect as far an NFL QB goes. Poor footwork, mediocre decision-making, and inconsistent as a passer. One of the reasons Liberty had a so-so season was that their opponents knew that Willis will take off and run before going through his progressions, and they spied on him more than in previous seasons. He was sacked 50 times. Liberty is also not that good on the OL, nor do their WRs get much separation.

EMU has been competitive in all of their bowl games under Chris Creighton, I think 3-0 ATS. Yet EMU definitely has their flaws. 9 points worth to a underperforming Liberty team. They can move the ball decently on offense, but I worry about their ability to stop the run. With extra time to prep, I'm counting on Creighton to come up with some unexpected plays/ schemes that gives them a chance for an upset. Just having Willis out there, gives EMU incentive to shine and compete. If Willis doesn't play, even better.

 

[ofred]

3* Fresno -12.5 Haener is in the portal, now he's not. Yet I do appreciate his apology and explanation for why he did what he did. A lot of high caliber athletes would just blow it off and return with no comment. Fresno loses their coach and OC to Washington. But they are excited about the Jeff Tedford hire. Most of their coaches are there for the bowl game prep. Haener has returned to bowl practice, and along with a very good array of skill guys, Fresno will be hard to stop for UTEP. UTEP hasn't really faced a team this fast or skilled offensively. Fresno uses both of their RBs, Mims and Rivers, as receivers as well as any team in the country. Along with their WRs, it's a lot to handle for a UTEP defense that isn't that good in pass coverage. UTEP is very excited to play in their bowl game, but they lost 4 of their last 5 after an easy early schedule, and they have zero experience in bowl games. QB Hardison had 17 TDs to 12 ints, and he's going to have to play out of his mind to keep his team in this game. UTEP has struggled to recruit for years, and there are too many guys there that athletically are below par by FBS standards.

 

[MAGAking1]

gl pal

 

[ofred]

1-1 so far.

1.5* WKU/ App. State- over 67.5 (-111) In past bowl seasons, Group of 5 teams have been more likely to hit ridiculous point totals. These two fit the bill. As of now, Zappe is playing for WKU. Now App. State has been decent defensively, but their offensive opponents have not been overall very good. They also haven't seen a passing heavy offense like WKU yet. Marshall and ULL scored in the 30+ range on them, and neither of those teams play this video game type offense that you see from WKU. App. State's conference leading pass defense is misleading in that only CCU had a solid passing attack. On the other hand, App. State should have no problem scoring on WKU. I mistakenly thought they had improved in their last 4-5 games, but then UTSA exposed their D flaws in the conference championship game. App. State has a very good run game, but they also have one of the better passing offenses in the Sunbelt- which is lacking in the conference. I think the defenses are at a disadvantage in this bowl game. Non-conference opponent that has a somewhat unfamiliar type of offense. Weather should be fine.

 

[ofred]

5" ULL -4.5 My first biggie bowl play. This line is reasonable mostly because ULL lost head coach Bill Napier to Florida, along with a couple of coaches that are going with them. But the new hire is in-house, Mike Desmoreaux. Desmoreaux has been at ULL the past 5 years, and was the guy players were hoping for. ULL also keeps enough of the other coaches, including the OC, to be just fine in the New Orleans Bowl. It wasn't a great bowl spot for a one loss team, but it will be like a home game for the Cajuns. Marshall is likely to have a much smaller contingent of fans there.

ULL, like most Sun Belt teams, didn't have a grueling schedule, but what they did to App. State twice, and to Liberty, tells me they know how to get up for big games. They run the ball extremely well behind the best OL in their conference. Marshall really struggled to defend the run in a number of their games, especially vs. the better competition. Teams that can run well against poor defensive run teams tend to win bowl games- sometimes significantly. ULL also has senior leadership and a reasonably good passing game with QB Levi Lewis. Marshall gets QB Grant Wells for the bowl game, even though he got a concussion in their last game. Yet Marshall looks vulnerable. They really were hurt bad in the transfer portal between last season and this. The top RB has great games vs. creampuff defenses like Charlotte, but nothing special vs. better Ds. Grant Wells will be the X factor. His TD- INT ratio is 16-12. Marshall also lost 3 home games. I've also noticed that in recent years, interim bowl coaches did fine in about half of their games. The situation with ULL seems to be a positive one, and with a ton of upperclassmen playing their last game for the Cajuns, I'm predicting a romp.

 

[ofred]

1-1 so far.

1.5* WKU/ App. State- over 67.5 (-111) In past bowl seasons, Group of 5 teams have been more likely to hit ridiculous point totals. These two fit the bill. As of now, Zappe is playing for WKU. Now App. State has been decent defensively, but their offensive opponents have not been overall very good. They also haven't seen a passing heavy offense like WKU yet. Marshall and ULL scored in the 30+ range on them, and neither of those teams play this video game type offense that you see from WKU. App. State's conference leading pass defense is misleading in that only CCU had a solid passing attack. On the other hand, App. State should have no problem scoring on WKU. I mistakenly thought they had improved in their last 4-5 games, but then UTSA exposed their D flaws in the conference championship game. App. State has a very good run game, but they also have one of the better passing offenses in the Sunbelt- which is lacking in the conference. I think the defenses are at a disadvantage in this bowl game. Non-conference opponent that has a somewhat unfamiliar type of offense. Weather should be fine.

Bumping this up to a 2*

 

[ofred]

1* UAB +7 BYU really got shafted on their bowl placement considering they are 12th ranked. Shreveport, a somewhat dismal place, with casinos, bars and other venues unfit for some nice Mormon boys...er, men. BYU has 37 married men, and they tend to be quite a bit older than your average college student. And all of the spouses and kids are coming to Shreveport to hang around the hotel? Anyways, BYU will finally join the Big 12 in 2023, but right now they are suffering the consequences of being an independent.

Tough game to cap considering BYU beat a bunch of PAC 12 teams, and only lost to Boise and Baylor. But, all of those PAC 12 teams had some kind of difficulty at the time they played BYU. Some, like Arizona and USC, just sort of sucked. BYU also has a solid run game, which seems to be a key factor in bowl games. But this line has crept down from 8.5 to close to 6.5. UAB gets their RB stud back, Dwayne McBride. A good defensive team, that runs well and has an efficient QB. They are close to home in Shreveport so more fans can attend. BYU has a number of injuries to key players, some out, some questionable. Gonna take the points in that all of those married BYU couples have other things on their mind other than football.

 

[ofred]

3* Fresno -12.5 Haener is in the portal, now he's not. Yet I do appreciate his apology and explanation for why he did what he did. A lot of high caliber athletes would just blow it off and return with no comment. Fresno loses their coach and OC to Washington. But they are excited about the Jeff Tedford hire. Most of their coaches are there for the bowl game prep. Haener has returned to bowl practice, and along with a very good array of skill guys, Fresno will be hard to stop for UTEP. UTEP hasn't really faced a team this fast or skilled offensively. Fresno uses both of their RBs, Mims and Rivers, as receivers as well as any team in the country. Along with their WRs, it's a lot to handle for a UTEP defense that isn't that good in pass coverage. UTEP is very excited to play in their bowl game, but they lost 4 of their last 5 after an easy early schedule, and they have zero experience in bowl games. QB Hardison had 17 TDs to 12 ints, and he's going to have to play out of his mind to keep his team in this game. UTEP has struggled to recruit for years, and there are too many guys there that athletically are below par by FBS standards.

Upping this to 4*(1* of this at -114) Fresno mum on QB starter, and practices are closed. Fresno interim coach informed the media that we'll know the QB on game day. Hard to keep everything a secret and word must be leaking out as this line is growing to 13 and more. How do you tell the other players that we aren't going to play our best QB(Haener) because we don't want the best chance to win? In the first 4-6 bowl games of earlier seasons, there have been a few offensive dynamos, and they usually dominate.

 

[ofred]

Small Lean on Oregon State-7. May increase or bet off closer to game time. Utah State beat up SD State missing 20 players from covid protocols. They are terrible defending the run, and the Beavers are an excellent running team.

 

[HighlifeRules]

OFred,

I always enjoy your write ups and are a must read. Good luck this bowl season!

 

[ofred]

Thanks HighLife.

6* Army -3.5 Going to taken 2 risks here. One, I'll take the 3.5 at normal vig, instead of the -3 at near -130. I really think Army wins this by much more than 3 or 4 points, but we'll see. Second, there's a possibility that Missouri RB Tyler Badie does not play to protect himself for the NFL draft. If I'm his agent and see that the Missouri coaches have run Badie 41 times in their last game, and over 100 carries in his last three games, I'm concerned. An injury in a meaningless bowl could cost him millions. Or maybe Badie will play, but due to his NFL prospects, they run him less. Either way, Army does have a pretty good run defense.

Army has gone 3-0 ATS in their last 3 bowls, two of them easy covers. For the Missouri coaches who are recruiting like mad at this time, and players finishing up finals and hanging out post-semester with friends and family, prepping for this odd triple option team, an offense they have never experienced, could be a problem. Missouri has a hard enough time defending the run vs. more traditional run games. Playing Army in Fort Worth is not that exciting either. Then there's a Missouri basketball game, with ranked Illinois, going on at the same time. Fan support could be less than expected. Conor Bazelak, the Missouri QB, also really played poorly for much of their season. He seems to have a confidence issue. He is not that mobile, not considered a running threat, and is inconsistent as a passer. A really prolific passing game would give Army problems, but I don't see that here.

Missouri finished the season by getting crushed by Arkansas, beating Florida and SC at home by close margins, and barely getting by Vandy. Prior to that, they were blown out by A&M and Tennessee. They did face SC's 3rd string QB, Florida out-gained them by 100, and the Gators looked like s**t at the end of the season. Army is still smarting from their Navy loss- a game that could have gone either way. But they are a tough team to play in games like this, and Missouri is much more likely to be disinterested and unfocused than Army. Missouri would be getting more points if they weren't in the SEC, but like Vandy, they are un-SEC material.

 

[ofred]

3.5* SD State +2 Was already leaning SD State here, but now with Sincere McCormick not playing for UTSA, I am more convinced the Aztecs win here. Their Mt. West Conference beatdown was so unlike them, and with 20 players out from covid protocols, you can see why they lost. But this is a veteran team that is very physical on both sides of the ball. They really will want to erase that gut-wrenching feeling from that loss. Without McCormick, UTSA is very dependent on QB Frank Harris. Harris had a nice season, but defenses(which aren't very good in Conference USA) had to really emphasize run defense due to McCormick's ability to break off long runs. Harris is better than a game manager, but as a senior, he is not even considered at all as a NFL prospect. UTSA also has had the benefit of playing some awful offenses this season, and this has skewed their defensive stats- a D that did get beat up by WKU, UAB and UNT. SD State does have a a mediocre QB situation. Yet they managed to lose only 1 game prior to the conference championship game. Good coaching, good running game, easily the best D in the Mt. West. SD State doesn't dominate teams, they just win.

 

[ofred]

1.2* Toledo -10 Small play on Toledo, the team that led the nation in the most penalties. Disappointing season for them. They were a better team than their record, but continued to shoot themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes. Yet they really have a nice run game, a good young dual threat QB, and have one of the best defenses in the MAC. MTSU really struggles to do much of anything offensively. Poor run game. Have tried 4 different QBs, and will likely play their true freshman here, Nick Vattiato. Not sure though. MTSU played a pretty soft schedule that included lucky wins over FAU and Marshall. Also played UConn, Monmouth, FIU, USM...right, 4 easy wins over creampuffs. I'd play this larger, but Toledo has been playing footsies with teams like this all year.

9 penalties by Toledo in just the 1st half. It's a miracle they are even in this game.

 

[ofred]

2-2 so far. Meh..... Saturday, though, a lot on the line.

Tulsa game: Their QB, Brin, is seriously turnover prone. Like Toledo, they could self-destruct. ODU could win or lose by 30.

1* Kent +3 Wyoming went 2-6 in conference, got killed in their final home game to Hawaii. Lost to New Mexico on homecoming day. Two dreadful QBs. Neither can pass accurately, both poor at decision-making. Even though Kent has a pretty bad defense, and Wyoming will be able to run on them, I just don't see Wyoming being able to convert 3rd down passing downs. Kent has the much better QB, who is mobile and with playmakers. Wyoming defense a bit overrated. Also, Kent HC Sean Lewis is more likely to game plan something unpredictable. Wyoming has played on the cold blue turf at Boise, but can't be too excited going there again. I doubt either team has many fans attending. Weather will be cold, but no wind or precipitation.