MistaFlava's NFL Football Week 13 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2021 NFL Football Record: 46-44 ATS (-68.00 Units)

One play last week and it was a big one and it lost. Sometimes that's how things go. Back up on the saddle after a tough few days and ready to go this week!

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!

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Sunday, December 5



New York Giants +6.5 (10 Units)

The entire betting world is converging on the Miami Dolphins in this game because New York Giants QB Daniel Jones is OUT and won't be playing but that's a mistake. These are two bad teams and the Giants have a veteran backup in QB Mike Glennon starting this game. Glennon has made 27 career starts and although he has won only 6 of those starts, he has completed 60.3% of his passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt with 39 Touchdwon Passes and 25 Interceptions. The Dolphins come into this game having won four straight games and I bet most NFL followers don't even know this. The beat Houston, Baltimore, NY Jets and Carolina in those games and also went 4-0 ATS and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. That doesn't always make things easy or obvious when betting on NFL Games and this seems like a bit of a trap spot. The Giants are coming off a 13-7 win over Philadelphia as four point underdogs and I bet a lot of people don't realize that they too have been playing better football and have won three of their last three games beating the Eagles, Carolina and Las Vegas during that stretch. Impressive stuff. The Giants come into this game 5-0 ATS in their last five games when scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and they are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 Road Games. I have made a killing betting on them over the last five years as a Road Underdog where they have covered the spread in 23 of their last 31 games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an Underdog to give a little bit more context. Don't be skeptical of Mike Glennon he can get the job done. The Giants are getting more and more competitive and starting to look at next season. I think they make this a dog fight and find a way to keep it close.

Trend of the Game: NY Giants are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 Road Games as an Underdog.


NY Giants 23, Miami 17

 

[MistaFlava]

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Houston Texans +10.5 (10 Units)

This may sound crazy because so many people were on the Texans last week when they pulled one hell of a shaft job and lost to the New York Jets at home but what did you expect with close to 70% of the betting public taking the Texans as a Favorite? This team is at it's best, or shall as I say they are only good, when they are counted and playing as an Underdog. Today is the day. One big question mark coming into this game is Colts QB Carson Wentz. Is he going to play the full game? With a sizeable lead will the Colts let Wentz continue playing in this game knowing they are giving up a huge draft pick to the Eagles if Wentz is to play 75% of the snaps this season. I would say it doesn't matter but you never know. 10 points is too many at home. I know the Texans suck but they've covered the spread in 2 of their last 4 games and are 2-0 ATS in their last two games as an Underdog of 10+ points which means they've turned a corner after going 0-3 ATS in those games in October. The Colts are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a Favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus AFC South Division opponents. The Texas have failed to cover the spread in their last nine games when hosting Indianapolis but that will change today. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last five Home Games as an Underdog and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games coming off an ATS spread loss. I think Houston keeps this close either from the getgo or with some late touchdowns in this game to sneak in the through the back door.

Trend of the Game: Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last five Home Games as an Underdog.


Indianapolis 33, Houston 26

 

[BigLouReturns]

"The Dolphins come into this game having won four straight games and I bet most NFL followers don't even know this."

Out of all the people that handicap the NFL, you're the only one who knows Miami has won 4 straight? Seriously??

 

[BoutMyMoney]

"The Dolphins come into this game having won four straight games and I bet most NFL followers don't even know this."

Out of all the people that handicap the NFL, you're the only one who knows Miami has won 4 straight? Seriously??

Miserable Lou checking in. Forza Mistaflava !!!

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava.....BOL with all your Sun. action buddy........indy

 

[MistaFlava]

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Detroit Lions +7 (10 Units)

This is a bit of a surprising one because I don't usually have bets on the Detroit Lions but I think they stun the NFL and come up with a very competitive effort in this game. The Lions are 0-10-1 on the season and could easily be winless on the year when all is said and done but I've been saying it for a weeks now I think they are going to pull some kind of crazy performance out of their asses at some point and it could come in this game. One thing is for sure it's that this team is well rested having not played since Thanksgiving Thursday in a very close loss to the Chicago Bears. Minnesota on the other hand are coming off a loss in San Francisco and with an early start like this one after a travel back to the East Coast, it wouldn't surprise me if it took them some time to get going. What's kind of crazy is this is the first time Minnesota is favored in a game since October 31 when they lost 20-16 to the Dallas Cowboys as a -4 point favorite. They were also favored by 10 at home earlier this season against these Lions and won 19-17. Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as a Favorite and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record on the season. The Lions on the other hand are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a game where they scored less than 15 points and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and finding a way to keep games close. I'm going Lions in a close one and possible W.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as a Favorite.


Detroit 26, Minnesota 19

 

[MistaFlava]

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Chicago Bears +7.5 (10 Units)

It feels like we haven't seen the Bears play in forever but actually it's only been about 10 days. We saw them in Detroit on Thanksgiving Thursday where they somehow found a way to win their fourth game of the year and beat the hapless Detroit Lions. Are you impressed? I wasn't but a win is a win in this league. QB Justin Fields is going to miss another game with an upper body injury and QB Andy Dalton gets another start. Having said that right now their best chance to win is likely with Dalton taking snaps. He has completed 64.3% of his passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt with 4 Touchdown Passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 89.4 in the games he has played. He seems to make a lot less mistakes than the rookie and that should give the Bears a fighting chance in this game today. Arizona is coming off an impressive 23-13 win over Seattle last week and now they have QB Kyler Murray back for the first time since he played in a 24-21 loss to Green Bay on October 28. Yes that's right well over a month since his last game and he could have some issues outdoors against this Chicago defense. It's not every week you'll see me putting money on Chicago but with Dalton at the helms I think they can make some plays in this game and keep it somewhat close and eventually lose by a Field Goal. Seattle wasn't able to run the ball whatsoever against Arizona but the Cardinals are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games coming off a game where they allow less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Bears for me.

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.


Arizona 23, Chicago 20

 

[MistaFlava]

Those are my early afternoon plays. I'll be back with a late afternoon slate and possibly some plays on SNF and MNF. Good Luck to everyone this week!

 

[exploited17]

GL
End the rest of the year on a streak

 

[carlitosway]

"The Dolphins come into this game having won four straight games and I bet most NFL followers don't even know this."

Out of all the people that handicap the NFL, you're the only one who knows Miami has won 4 straight? Seriously??

Stop being a douchebag.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Stop being a douchebag.

Have you read his writeups???

 

[hobbs4]

GOOD LUCK!

 

[nino-nutz]

good luck

 

[phdinsports]

GIANTS BEARS +7 and +8 at Bodog!!

 

[DocHolliday]

any picks for the 2nd wave?

 

[MistaFlava]

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Jacksonville Jaguars +14 (10 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers +4 (10 Units)

 

[MistaFlava]

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Seattle Seahawks +3 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***

 

[ETphoneyourbookie]

Let's get this Flava.

 

[cgarn]

Nice hit on the POD MF

 

[Honger]

Up 1 unit. At least you didn't lose.