My opinion with my game selection all comes down to "value" or "false value" and I make that determination by looking at the point spread as it is compared to where I feel it should be. My betting system is heavily dependent on statistics, requiring some data gathering and assumption building regarding future performance. My analysis with information using three Power ratings with a comparison factoring in home team edges. Trying to analyze a clear idea what teams are inflated with the point spread. Looking at stats from many different media sources with the point spreads compared to all three power ratings. My opinion Dunkel Index power rating is one best and very accurate compared to Jeff Sagarin rating. The DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders rating analysis factors in defense and offense statistics including points scored, points given up, win-loss record, and strength of games played and remaining. It indicates who is actually the better teams irrespective of record. There many games close on the weekly card which is no play for me. From there I decide if there is any value or false value in the number by examining the public perception on the games. I look at early public betting trends and the situational trends & money lines in the weekly card.