Who has the edge in the Big 12 title game? Here are three key matchups between Baylor, OSU

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STILLWATER — Oklahoma State and Baylor will meet for the Big 12 championship at 11 a.m. Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

The fifth-ranked Cowboys defeated No. 9 Baylor in their previous meeting, 24-14, on Oct. 2.

Here’s a look at three key matchups for Saturday’s game: Sanders was intercepted three times in the last meeting with Baylor, though he has only four interceptions in the seven games since. Sanders has thrown for 2,211 yards this season and rushed for 510 with 22 total touchdowns. Pitre was named one of three finalists for the Jim Thorpe Award for the nation’s best defensive back. He has 63 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and two interceptions. He can disrupt plays at the line of scrimmage or in the secondary.

OSU center Joe Michalski vs. Baylor nose guard Siaki Ika​

Michalski replaced starter Danny Godlevske, who was injured in the TCU game on Nov. 13. A redshirt sophomore with minimal playing experience prior to that, Michalski has held up well in the middle of the OSU offensive line. Ika, a 6-foot-4, 350-pound nose guard, is a disruptive force on the Baylor defensive line. He has 15 tackles and 3.5 sacks, but his impact goes way beyond statistics. He will be a challenging matchup for Michalski.

Baylor running backs vs. OSU linebackers​

Baylor’s running back tandem of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner combined for over 2,100 rushing yards during the regular season. Smith is the leader of the group, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and 113.8 yards per game. The OSU linebackers, Malcolm Rodriguez and Devin Harper — both super-seniors — lead the team in tackles. Rodriguez has 107 and Harper has 81. They were key in holding Baylor to a season-low 107 rushing yards in the previous meeting.

 

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• Oklahoma State and its opponents have gone over the current 46.5-point total in five of 10 games (50%) this season.
• In 75% of Baylor's games this season (9/12), the teams combined to score more than Saturday's total of 46.5.
• Saturday's over/under is 18.7 points lower than the two team's combined 65.2 points per game average.
• This contest's over/under is 10.7 points above the 35.8 these two squads combine to surrender per game this season.
• The average total in Cowboys games this season is 52.4, 5.9 points above Saturday's over/under of 46.5.
• The 46.5-point total for this game is 5.9 points below the 52.4 points per game average total in Bears games this season.

• Oklahoma State Stats and Trends​

  • In Oklahoma State's 12 games this season, it has nine wins against the spread.
  • The Cowboys have an against the spread record of 4-1 in their five games when favored by 5.5 points or more so far this season.
  • Oklahoma State's games this year have gone over the total in four out of 10 opportunities (40%).
  • This year, the Cowboys rack up 12.4 more points per game (31.8) than the Bears surrender (19.4).
  • Oklahoma State is 9-1 against the spread and 11-1 overall in games when it records more than 19.4 points.
  • The Cowboys average 409.8 yards per game, 60 more yards than the 349.8 the Bears give up per matchup.
  • When Oklahoma State piles up over 349.8 yards, the team is 6-0 against the spread and 8-0 overall.
  • The Cowboys have turned the ball over 15 times this season, five fewer than the Bears have forced (20).

 

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Why Oklahoma State Will Win​

The Cowboys took a punch.

They were in big, big trouble against Oklahoma with College Football Playoff viability on the line. The defense that hadn’t surrendered more than 24 points all year – and had allowed just 23 over a four game span leading up to Bedlam – hadn’t been the problem, but the team was down 33-24 in the fourth quarter.

The D stepped up, the O took over helped by a muffed OU punt return, and the team got the win and survived.
Now it’s time to get back to business.

Baylor is tough, dangerous, and disciplined, but it might not have QB Gerry Bohanon at 100% thanks to a leg injury, and it shouldn’t matter all that much even if he’s a full go. Oklahoma State won 24-14 in the first meeting despite turning the ball over three times.

The offense was balanced, the running game was great, and the defense lived in the Baylor backfield.

Why Baylor Will Win​

The offense keeps on humming.

It hasn’t been quite as strong as it was over the first part of the season, but it still leads the Big 12 with 446 yards per game thanks to an offensive line that’s been great at keeping everyone out of the backfield – except Oklahoma State in the lone loss.

It’s not like the team can’t grind. The offense failed to get to 300 yards against Iowa State and still managed to equal out a tough win – and without coming up with a slew of takeaways.

The three against Oklahoma State in the first meeting didn’t add up a win, but the defense has stepped up the pressure over the second half of the season with two takeaways in four of the last five games.
All of the pressure is on the Cowboys to not only win the game, but do it convincingly enough to make the College Football Playoff committee swoon. They’re not going to be able to get away with three takeaways again – the Baylor D is too good.

The Bears haven’t allowed more than 125 rushing yards in the last seven games since the loss to the Cowboys.

What’s Going To Happen​

It’s hard to beat a team twice in a season, but Oklahoma State is about to do it.

Baylor will be more than just plucky. They’ll pull out all the stops, they’ll be balanced, and they should be able to make this a fight …

And then the Oklahoma State defense will take over in the second half.

The Cowboy defensive line will crank up the intensity after not generating enough pressure early on, the secondary will clamp down, and the offense will start to pull away with two good scoring drives.

 

[Serbone]

QB Bohanon sitting, freshman Shapen starts today