The Truthful Tout NBA 2021-2022 NBA season.

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Greetings, my fellow speculators. I go by the moniker "The Truthful Tout". I'm a long time grinder. No parlays, no teasers except for the rare occasion. I rate my plays as follows.

A= 2/3 unit
B=1 unit
C=1.5 units
D=2 units
E=3 units
F=4 units or 4% roll max play.

I will have very few E or F rated games. I have been doing this for a long time as a solitary bettor, and I've learned the hard way to NEVER GET TOO ENAMORED WITH ANY GIVEN SIDE OR TOTAL. Why, you may ask? Because there will be another huge card tomorrow, or the day after, or the day after that. Sports speculation isn't a sprint, its a marathon. Hopefully I'll be able to help a few of you realize some of what I've learned over the years the hard way. All that being said, I have had an ok start to this NBA season, 23-19-2. None of that is documented anywhere except for my own records. I will start this thread at 0-0 however and document accordingly as we move forward thru the season. GL GL GL, and may we all run like Usain Bolt!
 

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I won't always have plays everyday. I pass full cards on occasion, as we all should. Instead of looking at managing your bankroll as not violating it by keeping to a tight unit betting structure, I would suggest you look at it in a different way. It has taken me years to come around and and view it in this way, but it wasn't until about 4 years ago when I started to view it in this way, everything changed, and I became a winning speculator, instead of a break even or losing bettor. I see it now as putting my entire roll into play everyday. And each wager I look at as a THREAT TO THAT ROLL THAT I WORKED SO HARD FOR. This one change in perception has allowed me to pass on spots with small edges, and instead play only spots with LARGER EDGES, or with much more shading points than these smaller advantage spots.

One last thing...in Mort Olshan's timeless book Winning Theories of Sports Handicapping, he points out in the first chapter, there is NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING. He used an example of a playoff game from a long time ago. Lakers had dominated by DD previous two games and opponent looked dead. Then if someone were to offer you Lakers +40 the next game, would you not BET YOUR ENTIRE ROLL, MORTGAGE YOUR HOME, AND LAY IT? You would then have subsequently lost it all, as Lakers lose by 41. There is NO SUCH THING AS A MORTAL LOCK. Get that thinking out of your mind. Itll kill you if not.

May be posting a play or two today. Not a great card, but a couple possible smaller plays. GL GL
 

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The Truthful Tout for 12/1/2021

Almost passed this card tonight entirely, but will step out for two small injury related spots. No reason to go crazy here, and a full pass is just as solid imo.

Au - Nuggets -7'
Au - Cavaliers +3

GL GL you and me!
 

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Always important to review your wagers, be honest with yourself about whether it was an actual win or actual loss. Sometimes you'll count a W as an L, and vice versa. Tonight however was pretty straightforward. Pass the card, was perfectly acceptable. We stepped out on two decent injury spots with two teams, one worked out the other, well had a 16 point lead and then quit at halftime. So this night is pretty straightforward,...

1-1 for -0.06 units.
 

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The Truthful Tout for 12/2/2021. Record here to date 1-1 (-.06 units)

Bu - Spurs +5
Au - Spurs/Blazers U217
Au - Pistons +12'

GL GL you and me!
 

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12/2/2021 RESULTS

3-0 (+2.20u)

Running total 4-1 (+2.14u)



Spurs +5 W outright 114-83. This was very close to a 1.5 unit play, but you'll find i tend to err on the side of caution. Blazers followed a long time pattern in NBA when after a big star goes down (Lillard) the team usually rallies for a game, or if injury happens early enough in the game, can effeft that actual game (good example recently was Booker going down, Suns rally and get a tough fought win) but you can usually safely fade that team next time out. The loss of so many points is really difficult to overcome unless a team is uber deep.

Spurs/Blazers U217 W This under play was predicated on same as above. Easy 20 point diff here.

Pistons +12' 103-114 W Even the white hot, incredibly deep Suns will have a very difficult time covering a DD #, minus their superstar top scorer. Almost inhuman performance tonight from Phoenix, winning by margin in one of the worst sandwich spots in NBA this season so far. Still 12' just too much, so we'll gladly cash this well thought out play.

See ya tomorrow.
 

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The Truthful Tout 12/3/2021

Bu GSW -7
Au Cavs/Wizards U208'

GL GL you and me!
 

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RESULTS Truthful Tout 12/3/2021

Cavs/Wizards U208' L 116-101 (-0.66u)
GSW -7 W 118-96 (+1.0u)

Interesting Cavs game. I wrestled back and forth on whether to step out on Cavs side, or the Under. Passing both would have been acceptable as well. However, having watched it now (one thing you can know for sure, I watch every game, everyday, without fail, unlike most cappers) i really wish I would have wagered on both, would have had coverage and ended up pushing the contest. Lesson re-learned here tho, so thats always good. Most lessons do tend to cost $, so nice when its only 2/3 of a unit.

GSW was pretty easy play. Almost released it (and wagered it) as a C or D unit play. Just found a couple late outs that I thought were valid for Suns, so as always took caution and collected a nice easy unit.

DAY TOTAL 1-1 (+0.34 units)

RUNNING TOTAL 5-2 (+2.48 units)


See ya tomorrow. Fwiw, I've had back to back really solid football
seasons as well. I have multiple units on Georgia, a VERY RARE FOR ME 3 TEAM ROUND ROBIN (Ga -'/OK St P/Michigan -5), and single unit plays on Wake Forest +3, and Kent St/No I'll O74' (good to 77). A quick note about the MAC CHAMPIONSHIP. Northern Illinois will have Lombardi back under center as last week was more of a "let him rest and make sure" move holding him out. But thats more of an aside to the real reason for this play ( and I would have no issue if someone preferred to make this a 2 or 2.5 unit play). The books have failed to adjust for Ford Field and this total. These two teams play in frigid, windy, rainy, snowy conditions...week in and week out the last two months of season. Now they move indoors, 75°, fast track turf, and the number is still sitting at 75 like it would if this game were in Kent, OH. Ford Field has to be worth at least a TD here, as these two most likely play well into the upper 80's low 90's in regulation.

Good luck.
 

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For the Mods...I have made several mistakes this week in NOT following the forum rules for this section. My apologies. Will still post recaps from night b4, as I feel its important to track your own form. But no more writeups. Will keep it simple and clean. Thanks.
 

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