One of the things I look at on Mondays is next week's games to see if any might have an influence on this week, there always seems to be at least one and sure enough Arizona are at home to The Rams. With the expectation that both teams win this week The Cards will be playing to basically win the NFC West, which makes it a hugely important game. With McCoy being a reasonable stand in you wonder how much playing time Murray will get if any in this game, the same can be said for Hopkins as its pointless risking players with a view to next week, even if they do play I can see plenty of running plays.
I had this set at 43 and the opening total of 46.5 probably took into account a bad Bears defense against a team that can score big. The Bears D is bad but I’m banking on Arizona's reluctance to put players in situations that might cause injuries once they’re comfortably ahead. The same could be said for The Cards defense but I just dont think Chicago with the personnel available will be able to take any significant advantage.
A couple of other positives for the under is there’s a 40% chance of rain game time and winds of 13mph gusting to 25, hopefully enough to get more running plays but not interceptions. Both punters are serviceable while not only can Bears kicker be inconsistent, Cards kicker Matt Prater, although usually good, had a bad game at Seattle and we all know how quick kickers can lose confidence.
The games I have circled this week rely heavily on whether injured players for and against play or not which can lead to missing a good spread, it's already happened with Daniel Jones being doubtful
I had this set at 43 and the opening total of 46.5 probably took into account a bad Bears defense against a team that can score big. The Bears D is bad but I’m banking on Arizona's reluctance to put players in situations that might cause injuries once they’re comfortably ahead. The same could be said for The Cards defense but I just dont think Chicago with the personnel available will be able to take any significant advantage.
A couple of other positives for the under is there’s a 40% chance of rain game time and winds of 13mph gusting to 25, hopefully enough to get more running plays but not interceptions. Both punters are serviceable while not only can Bears kicker be inconsistent, Cards kicker Matt Prater, although usually good, had a bad game at Seattle and we all know how quick kickers can lose confidence.
The games I have circled this week rely heavily on whether injured players for and against play or not which can lead to missing a good spread, it's already happened with Daniel Jones being doubtful
Thanks Hot rocks
This is the time of year where one has to be aware of bias towards certain teams that have let your bets down recently. Twice this year I’ve had bets involving The Chargers and both have lost so it's easy to shy away from another contest purely through illogical thoughts. I’ve said before that most of LACs inconsistent results come from their defense not being good and having a base game plan that gives them the best chance. This means playing it safe on D with the hope the Offense gets a few early strikes, when it works they win but if they fall behind it's usually a loss. So goes the up and down results. Besides a bad defense the offensive line has gradually deteriorated and will be a disaster if Matt Feiler is out again this week. Nobody can operate behind a shot line. Being incapable of stopping the run prolongs the scoring TDs they concede to the point that LAC are last in offensive drives per game which means less opportunities for Herbert.
The Bengals, like WFT appear to have tweaked enough in the bye week to put their playoff chances back on track but I’m not totally convinced after beating an overrated Raider team and an average Steeler team which is only going one way. Regardless of the future they get a golden chance here to play their game of run enough to open the field for the other skill positions and slow up the opposition when on defense, The Chargers are tailor made for it. It's not all plain sailing, it never is as The center Hopkins and RT Reiff were injured in last weeks game and didn't return, the hope is with a blow out lead at the time neither were needed to come back in. Fingers crossed but the overall picture of this game still had me betting The Bengals.
This is the time of year where one has to be aware of bias towards certain teams that have let your bets down recently. Twice this year I’ve had bets involving The Chargers and both have lost so it's easy to shy away from another contest purely through illogical thoughts. I’ve said before that most of LACs inconsistent results come from their defense not being good and having a base game plan that gives them the best chance. This means playing it safe on D with the hope the Offense gets a few early strikes, when it works they win but if they fall behind it's usually a loss. So goes the up and down results. Besides a bad defense the offensive line has gradually deteriorated and will be a disaster if Matt Feiler is out again this week. Nobody can operate behind a shot line. Being incapable of stopping the run prolongs the scoring TDs they concede to the point that LAC are last in offensive drives per game which means less opportunities for Herbert.
The Bengals, like WFT appear to have tweaked enough in the bye week to put their playoff chances back on track but I’m not totally convinced after beating an overrated Raider team and an average Steeler team which is only going one way. Regardless of the future they get a golden chance here to play their game of run enough to open the field for the other skill positions and slow up the opposition when on defense, The Chargers are tailor made for it. It's not all plain sailing, it never is as The center Hopkins and RT Reiff were injured in last weeks game and didn't return, the hope is with a blow out lead at the time neither were needed to come back in. Fingers crossed but the overall picture of this game still had me betting The Bengals.
WASHINGTON M/L +105 1pt
WFT @ RAIDERS UNDER 50 -118 1pt
Earlier this week I was looking at WFT as a bet against what I consider a very overrated Raiders team, the fly in the ointment as nearly always was injuries. As it looked as those injuries would result in probable losses on the O line I thought maybe WFT wouldn't score as much and the under 50 might be a better bet. Such are the dilemmas faced today where we have so much information.
After five days of considering all angles I realised that the basic reason I wanted to bet WFT was The Raiders inability to stop the run. After the tweaks I mentioned last week WFT now has a system that fits their personnel, running the ball and screens until short passes become open with a defense that appears to be back to last year's standard. Two things that would derail the system going forward would be defensive injuries and an opponent that was stout against the run, however one injury ( collins) can be catered for in practice while WFT can wait another week before meeting the running play problem.
On paper this looks like Washington’s perfect match up that doesn’t ask too much from Henicke, long methodical drives will be the order of the day hopefully putting The Raiders in catch up, their worst nightmare. Betting a team and the under is not a winning strategy normally but I look at this as more of a hedge, if Washington cant perform their running game it's highly likely they don't score much making the under a solid bet. If they do have success then its possible that both bets cash. That's it for the week
WFT @ RAIDERS UNDER 50 -118 1pt
Earlier this week I was looking at WFT as a bet against what I consider a very overrated Raiders team, the fly in the ointment as nearly always was injuries. As it looked as those injuries would result in probable losses on the O line I thought maybe WFT wouldn't score as much and the under 50 might be a better bet. Such are the dilemmas faced today where we have so much information.
After five days of considering all angles I realised that the basic reason I wanted to bet WFT was The Raiders inability to stop the run. After the tweaks I mentioned last week WFT now has a system that fits their personnel, running the ball and screens until short passes become open with a defense that appears to be back to last year's standard. Two things that would derail the system going forward would be defensive injuries and an opponent that was stout against the run, however one injury ( collins) can be catered for in practice while WFT can wait another week before meeting the running play problem.
On paper this looks like Washington’s perfect match up that doesn’t ask too much from Henicke, long methodical drives will be the order of the day hopefully putting The Raiders in catch up, their worst nightmare. Betting a team and the under is not a winning strategy normally but I look at this as more of a hedge, if Washington cant perform their running game it's highly likely they don't score much making the under a solid bet. If they do have success then its possible that both bets cash. That's it for the week
Nice writeups and logic behind plays but You missed better numbers on cin -1.5 and was +2.5 and +3.t hawk,
personally I dont have bets where I've missed the best number as bad beats can be very damaging to your confidence. In this case I certainly wouldnt go under the 44 as its the biggest key number
Bigwang I apologise, that was a knee jerk reaction. By missing a number I mean once I've decided on a bet. I've mentioned before NFL spreads are in groups, 0-3, 3-7, 7-10 etc inside these is only vig whereas Totals are more rigid. You cannot bet a total under 44 if you missed it, however the new scorings and 4th downs in the NFL might make that redundant. Once again apologises, the weekend wine is flowing here at 9pm
I was not playing it, just wanted people to know where your cut off was for the very reason you stated.t hawk,
personally I dont have bets where I've missed the best number as bad beats can be very damaging to your confidence. In this case I certainly wouldnt go under the 44 as its the biggest key number
When someone posts a play and the line moves, you really do not want to start chasing numbers.
That usually ends badly.
Thanks for responding and GL
Like Washington also, the more I looked at it the under seems like a good hedge bet as you have saidWASHINGTON M/L +105 1pt
WFT @ RAIDERS UNDER 50 -118 1pt
Earlier this week I was looking at WFT as a bet against what I consider a very overrated Raiders team, the fly in the ointment as nearly always was injuries. As it looked as those injuries would result in probable losses on the O line I thought maybe WFT wouldn't score as much and the under 50 might be a better bet. Such are the dilemmas faced today where we have so much information.
After five days of considering all angles I realised that the basic reason I wanted to bet WFT was The Raiders inability to stop the run. After the tweaks I mentioned last week WFT now has a system that fits their personnel, running the ball and screens until short passes become open with a defense that appears to be back to last year's standard. Two things that would derail the system going forward would be defensive injuries and an opponent that was stout against the run, however one injury ( collins) can be catered for in practice while WFT can wait another week before meeting the running play problem.
On paper this looks like Washington’s perfect match up that doesn’t ask too much from Henicke, long methodical drives will be the order of the day hopefully putting The Raiders in catch up, their worst nightmare. Betting a team and the under is not a winning strategy normally but I look at this as more of a hedge, if Washington cant perform their running game it's highly likely they don't score much making the under a solid bet. If they do have success then its possible that both bets cash. That's it for the week
Think this will be more of a running game from both teams. With Waller looking like he is not playing that helps the under, although Moreau is very capable.
GL
